This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.

While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.

Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.

Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.

This is article three in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here. To read Part One of the General Tips article, click here.

5. Alter Your Plan
Are you confused yet? We left off part one by saying that you should stick to a plan, but that can only go so far. Don’t be afraid to re-evaluate your plan if talks stall. But, don’t alter your plans just to get a deal done. Make sure the trade still makes your team better. Most of the time, altering your plans is done out of necessity, not choice. If you don’t alter you plans, a deal may have no shot of getting done.

6. Don’t Be Afraid To Walk Away
It is frustrating to walk away from a deal, especially if you have been negotiating for awhile. Having a long discussion end in nothing makes owners feel bad because they spent a whole lot of time and effort and have nothing to show for it. Believe me, I know. I just walked away from two long weeks of negotiations, and it doesn’t feel good. If you can’t get a deal done, use it as fuel to get the next one done. You’ve learned something about how other owners may view the pieces you are offering, so you can apply your new found knowledge to the next deal. The key to walking away from a failed deal is the ability to not take it personally. Segue!

7. Don’t Take It Personally
These deals aren’t personal attacks…usually. Once and awhile owners will try to pick on one another if they think they can fool an owner into taking a deal easier than they can fool another. Even then, it isn’t a personal attack, but an insight into how others value your baseball acumen.

This is article two in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Know Your Opponent
You should have a pretty good idea of your opponents roster entering into trade talks. If you don’t, talks will be far more drawn out and difficult then they have to be. Know what you want from your opponent, and know what he needs.

2. Pre-Offer Communication
I tend not to make offers out of the blue. While there is nothing wrong with just proposing a trade with someone, I always try to send them a quick email to gauge potential interest first. This helps prevent an owner from feeling like you are trying to swoop in and grab one of their players without warning. However, if there is a trading block in your league, and the player you are trying to trade for (or trying to trade away) is on said block, then you do not need any warning before offering a deal, because had a chance to see it coming.

3. Slightly Lopsided Initial Offer
This goes back to our general trading theory. While you need to make an offer they will at least have to consider, you should always try to get the most value out of a deal that you possibly can. Make the offer that gives you the biggest benefit, and once and awhile, it will get accepted. Most of the time, however, it will be the jumping off point.

4. Have A Plan (And Stick To It)
Don’t just offer trades willy-nilly. Before you send a proposal, have an idea of what you are willing to give up. For further clarification, an example is appropriate: Before the season began, I offered  Joel Hanrahan/Jason Marquis for Andy LaRoche/Conor Jackson (20-team wRC/FIP league). I hoped he would take the deal the way it was, because I wanted a 3B and some LF insurance for my bench, and could afford to give up both Hanrahan and Marquis. However, going into the trade, I decided I was willing to give up Luke Gregerson instead of Hanrahan, if it came down to it. And, guess what? It did. We ended up completing a deal because I knew what I was willing to give up.

Part Two will be up tomorrow morning.

This is article one in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

To start us off, we need to first understand the concept of “trading”. While I do believe everyone has an idea of the purpose of trading, I think it tends to get lost due to simple oversight and the tendency to get lost in the moment.

If anyone has taken even the most basic econ class, they will know exactly where I’m going with this. To put it simply, in a trade there is no real “winner” or “loser”. For a trade to occur, both parties need to feel like they are getting something of value in return, and giving up something they value less. While we, as third parties, may be able to step in and render judgement on who got the better deal, both parties will still feel like they’ve won. That’s how trading works, and it always will.

To put it in a less neutral, and more fantasy baseball relevant context, trading is giving up a player you don’t want (or need) for a player that your want (or need). All of you know this, but stepping back and looking at it from a third-person perspective is important.

When you offer a deal to a fellow owner, you are always trying to make your team better. But, so is the other owner. They certainly are not going to accept a deal if they think it makes their team worse, and neither would you.

Remember this the next time you offer someone a deal. Ask yourself “Will they perceive a benefit from this trade,” and you are far more likely to get deals done. Notice that I did not say to ask yourself “Will they get better”, instead “Will they think they are getting better”. While I don’t advocate being a scumbag and ripping people off, you can trick people into making trades that may not actually make their team better.

As we get further into the season, trades are far more likely to happen. This is due to the lack of quality free agents, forcing owners to contact each other when trying to build a better roster. With trade talks heating up in real baseball, there is no better time to delve into fantasy trading. For the rest of the week, there will be a series of articles delving into different aspects of trading.

In part, this is a selfish exercise to review and reinforce ideas, but it really isn’t. Anytime we can review even the most basic of activities in order to better understand them, we are better off. For the most part, owners lost track of why we make trades, and how they come about. If we can get inside our opponents head and comprehend why they accepted or denied our offer, we have a better chance at completing a deal now, and in the future.

Because this series is meant to help you, the reader, I am going to cater to your needs. While the articles are already written and the topics decided, they are not set in stone. If you have a question at any point in the series that pertains to the subject at hand (and isn’t a “Should I trade Player X for Player Y” question, those are for chats), I will do my best to answer it directly or modify future articles to include an answer of sorts. If enough questions come in, there may be an addition to the series so I can address them in further detail. In fact, we can start right now. If you have a topic you think should be covered, put it in the comments of this post.

So, I hope the 2500+ words you will read this week will be used for good, and not for evil. If you want to know what’s coming up, the table of contents (subject to change) is located at the bottom of this post.

I: Basic Trade Theory (Tuesday)
II: General Trading Tips Part 1 (Tuesday)
III: General Trading Tips Part 2 (Wednesday)
IV: Projections vs. Production (Wednesday)
V: Degrees Of Difficulty (Thursday)
VI: Specific Keeper League Tips (Thursday)
VII: Types of Traders (Friday)

As we get deeper and deeper into the season, we learn more and more about each player. This makes perfect sense, on two fronts. First, the more data we have on anyone (in any aspect of life), the better we can understand them and the more accurately we can predict behavior going forward. Secondly, we learn more and more about certain aspects (peripheral stats) of the player, which gives us an even better chance of predicting performance going forward.

For example, we know from Pizza Cutter’s work that a player’s HR/FB rate stabilizes at around 300 plate appearances. Most hitters have now hit that mark, or will very shortly. Once they hit the benchmark, we can feel much more confident when predicting home runs going forward. If you want to familiarize yourself with all of the intricacies of in-season hitting benchmarks, be sure to read Eric Seidman’s post on the subject, but below are the final results of the study:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Pop quiz: What’s the biggest stat that you don’t see listed here? The answer is C) BABIP, and similarly, AVG. This means that throughout the length of one season, BABIP never really stabilizes and become reliable.

This is one of the biggest problems in fantasy leagues. When acquiring a player you believe has been unlucky thus far, you are still taking a shot in the dark. Guys have been known to have unlucky seasons, so he may not perform any better once you acquire him. Then again, he could perform much better, and you could get one hell of a steal. If I were to give advice to an owner trying to buy low on a player’s BABIP, I would always suggest doing so. If you want to increase your odds of finding a rebounding player, grab a few of them and hope that one of them works out. Of course, if you’re in a keeper league, you should buy low more often. Because, even if the player doesn’t rebound for the rest of the season, chances are he will be back to his normal self the next season, when we get to hit the “reset” button.

To put it simply, when buying low on BABIP, you just have to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”

Well, do ya, punk?

Unless you’re in a league that counts holds (I’ll admit, SV+HLD is one of my favorite fantasy stat categories) there’s not too many reasons to carry a setup man on your roster. Saves are always available in free agency, so there’s not really a need to waste a roster spot on a fungible middle relievers on your roster with an eye towards the future. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some non-closer relievers out there worth that roster spot, though.

Let’s take Michael Wuertz for example. Last year he struck out 102 batters while putting just 75 men on base and allowing 23 runs to cross the plate in 78.2 IP (2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). If you had combined him with a mid-range starter, say Jonathan Sanchez, you would have ended up with 242 IP of 3.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP pitching with 279 strikeouts. That’s not too far off from what Justin Verlander did last year, a top tier fantasy starter.

Of course, you’re using two roster spots to replicate the production of one, but this late in the season it gets tougher and tougher to find bargains. Everyone knows about Tyler Clippard and his league leading eight (vulture) wins (he’s owned in 66% of leagues), but here’s five other non-closer relievers worth a spot in a standard 5×5, 12-team league…

Daniel Bard | Red Sox | 22% owned

Last night’s blown save notwithstanding, Bard has been a workhorse out of Terry Francona’s bullpen in the early going. He’s appeared in exactly half of Boston’s 62 games, posting a 2.48 ERA (3.49 xFIP) with 9.64 K/9 and a 0.95 WHIP. Just six strikeouts behind starter John Lackey (who’s owned in 83% of leagues), Bard’s upper 90’s gas is sure to see plenty of action this summer as the Red Sox fight for supremacy in the AL East.

Luke Gregerson | Padres | 21%

Gregerson really has been a marvel for San Diego since coming over from St. Louis in the Khalil Greene trade last offseason, racking up 1.8 WAR in 75 IP with 93 strikeouts due to his slider heavy approach in 2009. He’s been even better this year, already compiling 1.4 WAR with 39 strikeouts in 32.1 IP, walking just one batter unintentionally. One! As you could imagine, Gregerson’s ERA is astronomically low (1.39) despite a 63.5% LOB%, and FIP (1.28), xFIP (2.02) and tRA (1.00) all back it up.

Arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball this year, Gregerson definitely has fantasy value since he’ll give you about four innings of damn near perfection per week.

Sean Marshall | Cubs | 22%

The Cubbies have been desperate for righthanded relief help, but Marshall’s got it locked down from the left side. Lou Piniella uses him as more than just a LOOGY, and why not? His strikeout rate is through the roof (11.27 K/9), the walks are low (2.67 BB/9) and so is the ERA (1.78), FIP (1.59), xFIP (2.94), and tRA (2.23).

Evan Meek | Pirates | 20%

Pittsburgh made a little noise this winter by signing a few veteran relievers to big league deals, but Meek has been their most valuable bullpener all season. His microscopic ERA (0.76) is propped up by an 87.4% LOB%, but batters have been unable to make solid contact off him, leading to just 21 hits allowed and a 0.81 WHIP in 35.2 IP. Meek has done most of the heavy lifting for the Buccos while the veteran guys get the saves and the glore, but rate stats that low and strikeouts that high (8.33 K/9) can definitely help mitigate those inevitable bad outings by a fantasy starter each week.

Joel Zumaya | Tigers | 19%

After battling injury for most of the last three years, Zumaya has finally been able to comeback and stay on the mound for Jim Leyland, amazingly with his triple-digit fastball still intact. Leyland’s been using him for multiple inning stints on occasion, and Zumaya’s rewarded his faith with 8.90 K/9, a 1.70 ERA (3.50 xFIP), and 1.02 WHIP. He has yet to allow a homer, thanks in part to luck, but also thanks to spacious Comerica Park. Zumaya’s only going to see more and more work as the summer progresses and Detroit’s games start to mean a little more.

Couple other relievers to keep in mind: Clay Hensley of the Marlins and Mike Adams of the Padres.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Which starting pitchers with shiny April ERAs pitched over their heads, and which guys with macabre surface stats got some bad bounces? To find out, let’s look at the starters with the biggest difference between ERA and expected FIP (xFIP) during the first month of the 2010 season (minimum 20 innings pitched).

First, the 10 starters whose peripherals suggest that their microscopic ERAs will climb:

Note the extremely low homer and BABIP figures, as well as the sky high strand rates. With the exception of Livan and Talbot, these guys have actually pitched pretty well thus far. It’s just that they won’t continue to compile Bob Gibson circa 1968 ERAs.

St. Louis’ Garcia, owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues, is burning worms and has a history of whiffing hitters in the minors. Health and stamina remain issues for the Tommy John survivor, but he’s legit. Liriano has started off strong as well. Pelfrey (whose one relief outing isn’t included here) has pitched decently, but it’s hard to say that he has “broken out.”

Now, here are the 10 starters with ERAs far higher than their peripheral stats would suggest:

Pretty much the opposite of the previous list: very high home run and BABIP numbers, and low strand rates. Porcello’s start really hasn’t been that bad, as his strikeout and walk rates have both improved compared to his rookie season, and he has maintained his strong groundball rate to boot. It’s pretty hard to notice, though, when hits are falling in 41.5 percent of the time that balls are put in play.

Harang, Beckett, Floyd and Jackson are also good targets. They haven’t been great, but perhaps you can acquire them on the cheap from a fed up owner. Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Harang: 4.12 FIP
Beckett: 3.37 FIP
Floyd: 4.54 FIP
Jackson: 4.25 FIP

Here’s a closer look at two North of the Border starters with ownership rates south of fifty percent..

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 8 percent of Yahoo Leagues)

The Jays acquired the 5th overall pick in the 2006 draft over the winter, parting ways with righty reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez.

Seattle’s previous regime decided to shove the former Cal star into the major league bullpen instead of giving him minor league innings to build stamina and sharpen his control, so Morrow has logged just over 100 frames in the minors. Couple that “starter, no reliever, no starter” drama with shoulder, forearm and biceps injuries, and you have a 25 year-old with less polish than some players who’ll get popped in the first round this coming June.

Even so, Morrow piques the interest of fantasy players due to his ability to blow the ball past hitters. In 28 innings this year, the 6-3 righty has whiffed 33 (10.61 K/9). His control is still scattershot (5.14 BB/9), but Morrow should certainly improve upon the 5.46 ERA that he has posted to this point. His xFIP checks in at 3.83, as Morrow has suffered from a high batting average on balls in play (.324). His strand rate (67 percent) could improve a bit as well. Owners in AL-only formats or deep mixed leagues should take a chance on Morrow.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues)

It’s often said that control is the last thing to return for starters returning from Tommy John surgery, but you wouldn’t know it from watching Marcum slice and dice hitters in April. The 28 year-old righty, who posted rates of 7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 4.24 xFIP in 2008, managed 7.41 K/9, 1.85 BB/9 and a 3.43 xFIP during the first month of the 2010 season.

Though his fastball couldn’t tear through tissue paper (86.8 MPH average), Marcum has never relied heavily upon his modest heater. Rather, he comes at hitters with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curve and a plus low-80’s changeup.

He’s getting a decent number of swings on pitches out of the zone (27.8 percent, compared to the 26.9 percent average in 2010), with a 73.5 percent contact rate (80.8 MLB average) and a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate (8.3 percent MLB average). There’s little chance that Marcum continues to pitch like a low-three’s ERA hurler, but ZiPS still projects a useful 4.08 FIP for the rest of the year.

Today is supposed to be a waiver wire article, but we’ll have plenty of those. For those of you still planning one last draft (and the internal FanGraphs league is one of those), I thought I would present to you my second-ever auction draft. Yes, I’m a noob. But with more mocks and real-life auctions in my review mirror, I’ll be able to step up the auction coverage here at RotoGraphs.

Here are my results, with comments coming after:

Position Player $
C Brian McCann 22
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1
1B Adrian Gonzalez 31
2B Brandon Phillips 21
3B Gordon Beckham 17
SS Alcides Escobar 12
CI Paul Konerko 10
MI Chris Getz 1
OF Justin Upton 30
OF Carlos Lee 19
OF Matt LaPorta 4
OF Seth Smith 1
OF Scott Podsednik 1
UT Gaby Sanchez 2
BN Xavier Nady 1
BN Matt Joyce 1
Total Offense: $173

Position Player $
P CC Sabathia 26
P Josh Johnson 22
P Brett Anderson 16
P Roy Oswalt 6
P Ryan Franklin 5
P Ryan Madson 4
P Kerry Wood 3
P Ryan Rowland-Smith 2
P Jonathon Niese 1
BN Ian Kennedy 1

Pitching total: $87

This was a 15-team put on by MDS (MillionDollarSleeper), who I’m sure you’ve seen around the comment boards at this site and others. He brought in an impressive collection of talent including David Goleblahblah, Paul Greco from FantasyPros911, Tim Heany from KFFL, Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright from Razzball, Paul Bourdett from AOL Fantasy Fanhouse, Antonio D’Arcangelis from RotoExperts, Scott Swanay from Fantasy Sherpas, Chris Carbonell from the Starbonell BlogTalkRadio show, Charlie Saponara from FB365, and yours truly.

Given that it was a 15-team league and my second attempt ever, I don’t think I fared so badly. I’d say Adrian Gonzalez for $31 was a little much, but the top-tier first basemen went for closer to $40 and Albert Pujols went for $48, so I think I did okay there. Maybe $10 is too much for Paul Konerko, but Adam LaRoche went minutes later for $15 and I felt (much) better. Things happened a little differently with Alcides Escobar – ten minutes after wondering if I’d spent too much on him, Everth Cabrera went for $4 and I wondered if Escobar’s superior batting average (based on fewer Ks and minor league history) was worth $8. Maybe it will prove to be. Carlos Lee for $19 looks about as bad as he does in a uniform, but the crib sheet I was using from LastPlayerPicked.com had Lee worth $21 next year and I was happy to get the power production with a good batting average for relatively cheap. And as for Scott Podsednik and Gaby Sanchez, who both showed up on my NFBC teams, too: They were cheap. And I think they’ll play almost regularly all year. So that’s something.

On the pitching side, CC Sabathia went for less than Johan Santana ($28), Dan Haren ($31), Felix Hernandez ($33), Zack Greinke ($32) and Tim Lincecum ($41), so I was happy to get my ace for cheaper than most. I also preferred CC, despite his big innings totals, over Ubaldo Jimenez ($26) and Ricky Nolasco ($25) as much as I like the younger pitchers. Lord knows CC has put up big innings totals before.

Once I spent my top-closer money on Brett Anderson, I knew I’d be looking for value in the saves category. Advice from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin was ringing in my ear (punt saves!), but I decided I’d rather try to field a full team this time. Once he’s healthy, I happen to think that the Indians will want to run Kerry Wood out there at closer to pump up his value for a trade, meaning that between him and Ryan Madson, I think I might have a second closer in there somewhere.

It’s kind of a wonky team and seems devoid of elite, top-shelf talent, but it just might work. What do you guys think?