Trading: Projections vs Production
This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.
This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.
While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.
Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.
Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Any chance these articles could be posted as one large article once the series is done? It’s a little bit confusing to read what appears to be a continuous string of thoughts when it’s broken into 7 individual pieces, without any transition from one article to the next.
Still entertaining though, thanks for the content!
I won’t post it all here, but I may just make my giant GoogleDoc available for everyone to look at.
This is so true. I have Adam LaRoche and I have no place to play him. I’ve tried trading him to several teams in our league that could use an upgrade over the carlos lee’s & lance berkman’s, but they won’t bite. I value LaRoche because he’s been a .300 hitter post all-star for the past 4 years. They look at LaRoche and all they see is a worthless .250 hitter. Sad part is he’s hitting better than both guys they are currently playing for those teams, and all I was looking for was a 4th/5th outfielder to cover while choo is out.
Am I putting to much value on LaRoche?
sorry, I should have said derek lee.
Except for the durability factor, not positive that Lee is much of an upgrade over Berkman at this point.
So you’re trying to get an outfielder for Derrek Lee? You don’t need him, but you’re trying to get some kind of return on your investment? Is that what you’re saying?
Who do you primarily use at 1B?
while i agree that you are trading for a players future stats, it seems kind of obvious that if you want a asking for a struggling player in a deal you think he will turn it around. Otherwise, why would you want him in the deal at all? Maybe I play in more competitive leagues but it has been my experience that if i am asking for a player who is not living up to expectations that the other owner will know i think he will be turning it around.
I think owners in competitive leagues still get frustrated with underperformance and are often willing to dump guys.
I think sometimes one gets to a point that they are losing enough ground somewhere that they may not have time to wait for a person to come around and need to perhaps sacrifice future production for current production.
My squad has been decimated by injuries with VMart, Ellsbury, Tulo, Marcum, and Beckett all on DL right now. I know all are good players and it hasn’t come to it yet, but I may need to trade a couple of these guys to someone who can afford to stash them or I may be too far behind by the time they come back for their production to matter that much. Same is with an under performing player. They may be able to turn it around by it might be a month from now and they may have driven down your average and sunk your stats so far by then that you’ve been unable to keep pace if you don’t have viable alternatives to start until they get going.