On BABIP and Buying Low

As we get deeper and deeper into the season, we learn more and more about each player. This makes perfect sense, on two fronts. First, the more data we have on anyone (in any aspect of life), the better we can understand them and the more accurately we can predict behavior going forward. Secondly, we learn more and more about certain aspects (peripheral stats) of the player, which gives us an even better chance of predicting performance going forward.

For example, we know from Pizza Cutter’s work that a player’s HR/FB rate stabilizes at around 300 plate appearances. Most hitters have now hit that mark, or will very shortly. Once they hit the benchmark, we can feel much more confident when predicting home runs going forward. If you want to familiarize yourself with all of the intricacies of in-season hitting benchmarks, be sure to read Eric Seidman’s post on the subject, but below are the final results of the study:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Pop quiz: What’s the biggest stat that you don’t see listed here? The answer is C) BABIP, and similarly, AVG. This means that throughout the length of one season, BABIP never really stabilizes and become reliable.

This is one of the biggest problems in fantasy leagues. When acquiring a player you believe has been unlucky thus far, you are still taking a shot in the dark. Guys have been known to have unlucky seasons, so he may not perform any better once you acquire him. Then again, he could perform much better, and you could get one hell of a steal. If I were to give advice to an owner trying to buy low on a player’s BABIP, I would always suggest doing so. If you want to increase your odds of finding a rebounding player, grab a few of them and hope that one of them works out. Of course, if you’re in a keeper league, you should buy low more often. Because, even if the player doesn’t rebound for the rest of the season, chances are he will be back to his normal self the next season, when we get to hit the “reset” button.

To put it simply, when buying low on BABIP, you just have to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”

Well, do ya, punk?