In an effort to limit his workload this season, the Blue Jays plan on shutting starter Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s outing against the Yankees. Morrow has established himself as a very good keeper candidate with his strong performances these last couple of months, but is he worth holding on to if he’s going to miss so much time? Here are some things to consider when it comes to keeping Morrow after this season.

1. September Shutdown
I briefly mentioned this above, but it’s a big deal. When a player is scheduled to ride the pine for the last month of the season, it can really complicate things for some owners. For owners who have teams who aren’t in contention, it’s no big deal, but competing owners? That’s a whole other story. For a team trying to win a league title, having all hands of deck is important and cannot be overstated. Some races get really close this time of year, and missing out on five starts could be the difference between first and second place.

2. Losing Eligibility
Thanks to the Mariners jerking him around for so long, Morrow had SP and RP eligibility this year. The Blue Jays have been kind enough to take away the valuable opportunity to slide Morrow into a relief role on your roster. While this isn’t a big deal in daily leagues, weekly owners willing to punt saves and rack up innings will have to make harder decisions next year. While it seems you can always find a starter who’s relief eligible, it’s rare to find one with Morrow’s skills.

3. Innings in 2011
The Blue Jays have said that they try to keep starters from increasing their workload by more than twenty innings. When all is said and done, Morrow will have pitched about 150 innings this year, meaning he’ll probably be around the 175-185 mark next year. Since he turns 26 next July, the Blue Jays may be willing to let him pitch freely next season, but I wouldn’t count on it.

In Conclusion…
Overall, Brandon Morrow and his owners should be asking for some relief appearances during September, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to oblige. A part of me hopes the Blue Jays decide to place him on the DL with a phantom injury, but with roster expansion they won’t be forced to. It’s hard to make a judgement one way or the other without knowing every owner’s situation, and I haven’t even made up my mind yet in one of my leagues. Weigh the facts, and make a decision. That’s all anyone can ever ask for.

Fantasy baseball players love stolen bases. Sometimes, that affinity leads to well-justified draft picks — who doesn’t want five-tool force Carl Crawford wreaking havoc on the base paths for their team? Other times, that need for speed results in owners employing a latter-day Omar Moreno, a guy who racks up big stolen base totals but couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. There’s yet another type of player who garners a reputation as a “speed guy,” while perhaps not actually helping his team or fantasy owners when he scampers toward second or third base. He might have a shiny SB total, but he’s costing the club runs by getting caught too often.

Today, I’d like to focus on which players have been the most and least efficient when attempting a stolen base. To judge efficiency, I rounded up all players with at least 15 stolen base attempts in 2010 and ranked them in terms of their run value on SB tries. According to Tom Tango, a stolen base is worth about +0.19 runs. A caught stealing subtracts roughly 0.46 runs. So, by looking at a player’s SB and CS figures, we can get a feel for whether he’s helping or hurting when he tries to steal. This matters in fantasy, too — those CS’s cost owners runs scored and provide other batters with fewer chances to drive in runs.

Here are the players who have added value when testing the pitcher and catcher:

And here are the guys who haven’t provided any value or have actually cost their teams runs by getting nabbed too much:

Those looking to add speed to a fantasy roster should look at more than raw SB totals. When a player bolts and gets caught red-handed, there’s a price to be paid.

Last winter, we took a gander at the MLB hitters with the biggest difference between their respective batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and expected BABIP (xBABIP) totals. Today, let’s update those lists for 2010.

To get the full methodology, here’s a link back to last year’s article. xBABIP, developed by Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton, estimates a hitter’s BABIP based on components such as batted ball distribution, speed and power. For the purposes of calculating xBABIP, I’m again using a formula developed by Slash 12 of Beyond the Box score based on the work of Bendix and Dutton. The model uses the following to find a hitter’s xBABIP:

– Line Drive Percentage (LD%)
– Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
– Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
– Infield/Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%)
– Home Run/Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%)
– Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%)

Hitters with high LD%, HR/FB% and INFH% totals tend to have higher BABIPs than those who don’t. Grounders have a higher BABIP than fly balls, and infield flies are BABIP killers.

From last year’s post, a disclaimer:

These lists of “lucky” and “unlucky” hitters are based on just one year of data. To get a better feel for how a hitter will perform in the future, it’s vital to take a good hard look at multiple seasons worth of performance. This is just a quick-and-dirty exercise.

In this case, the numbers are based on even less data — I used a 200 plate appearance cut-off. These lists basically tell you, “who has underperformed or over performed based on their batted ball inputs so far in 2010?” A player might have certain line drive, infield fly and HR/FB percentages to this point, but that does not mean those numbers will persist in the months to come. To provide more context, I have included the rest-of-season ZiPS BABIP for the players with the biggest BABIP/xBABIP splits.

Without further ado, here are the 25 hitters with the biggest negative BABIP/xBABIP splits. These guys have BABIP totals that are significantly lower than their xBABIPs:

Read the rest of this entry »

This is article seven in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

If liked my preseason piece on the different types of owners, this is right up your alley.

The Sniper
The Sniper rarely makes an offer, but when he does, it’s dynamite. Reminds some of a cautious poker player, who must have a hand if he raises. He does his research, knows your team, and will always give you something to think about. If he offers a deal, he expects to get it done.

The Master of Propaganda
This trader also goes by his scientific name of “Das Goebbels”. Never offers a trade without writing at least a paragraph in the comments. Never includes any bad stats about the players he gives up, yet can always find the flaws in the players he is receiving.

The Gunner
Can’t go a day without studying an opponents roster looking for a trade opportunity. He’ll make an offer to every team when he wants to trade a player, and won’t stop until he gets a deal done. While he’ll annoy some, others will love him. Because of his willingness to deal, other owners may begin to give him first shot at players they are looking to deal.

The Con Artist
A deadly combination of The Gunner and The Master of Propaganda. Frequently tries to deal players if he finds out they’re injured before others do. His trades tend to get vetoed, and he always complains. His league mates hate him, but any new team won’t know any better. He’s been kicked out of countless keeper leagues, but dominates in newly formed public leagues.

The Mule
The most stubborn owner in the league. If he doesn’t like a deal, he will never make a counter-offer, instead forcing his counterpart to wonder where the deal went wrong. Playing the role of The Mule has shown to be a great negotiating technique when utilized properly.

The Counter-Attacker
Rarely initiates trade talks, electing to sit back and let others come to him. Once he receives an offer, he runs with it and tries to get a deal done. A combination of The Sniper and Counter-Attacker have been seen roaming the world at times, but are now only bred in captivity.

This is article six in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Long-term Relationships
This is the main difference between keeper and redraft leagues. If you get deep into talks with an owner and do something to piss them off, your chances of dealing with them in the future are diminished. In keeper leagues, you should be much more diligent and explain why you are rejecting every deal.

2. Buy Low More
I touched on this in my “On BABIP and Buying Low” article a couple of weeks back, but I’ll elaborate more. When you sense some regression is on the horizon, you have a much better chance of getting a good deal in keeper leagues. In redraft leagues, the player may never regress, and your stuck with a guy you have no use for. However, if you are certain the player is better than he’s shown, you have a much better chance to cash in if you’re in a keeper league. Even if they don’t return to normal during the current season, you could always hold onto them and wait for next year.

3. Weighing Next Year vs. This Year
I lied, this is a bigger difference than #1. While redraft leagues only have to worry about what the player will do the rest of the season, keeper league owners need to weigh a players current performance, their future performance, and draft pick value. For example, if you can make a deal to get a player you find to be almost as valuable this year, but will be cheaper to keep in the future, you need to pull the trigger. Don’t get carried away and deal everyone away for cheap keepers, but keep that factor in mind when accepting a deal.

This is article five in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

Some trades are easier to get done than others. Here we have the three categories of trades, listed from easiest to pull off to hardest to pull off.

Trading Stat Categories
If you’re in a H2H league, this won’t have much of an impact on you, and really doesn’t matter in Points leagues. But, in Roto leagues, this is a big deal.

This is the best example of general trade theory. If I have a glut of pitching and am dominating in those categories, I can trade an arm or two away to help improve my hitting. Chances are, I will only be able to pull this trade off with someone in the opposite position, so we both come out as winners (in our own minds).

Trading Different Positions
You probably think that trading away players who play different positions is one of the easiest way to get things done. But, it’s easier said then done. Not every owner understands the idea of “replacement level” (and z-scores), so completing a deal may take some convincing. Believe it or not, replacement level plays a major role when analyzing fantasy baseball. In fantasy terms, a replacement level player is defined as someone who is freely available on the waiver wire.

For example, a player who hits .280 with 15 homers is far more valuable as a catcher, compared to his value as a first baseman. Everyone knows this, but it can be hard to accept when talking trade. This is because finding a first baseman with those numbers isn’t all that hard, while finding a catcher with those numbers is.

While most people know and accept this theory, they may not be able to give up an OF who puts up better raw numbers for a catcher who puts up worse raw numbers. These trades take some convincing and explanation, but can get done.

Trading Within Positions
These trades rarely occur, and for good reason. It’s rare that I have a 3B that I hate, but you like, and I trade him to you for a 3B you hate, but I like. I’ve seen it happen a couple of times, but it’s very rare. It happens more often when trying to change your team’s Roto focus, but that comes back to the first grouping in this article.

This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.

While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.

Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.

Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.

This is article three in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here. To read Part One of the General Tips article, click here.

5. Alter Your Plan
Are you confused yet? We left off part one by saying that you should stick to a plan, but that can only go so far. Don’t be afraid to re-evaluate your plan if talks stall. But, don’t alter your plans just to get a deal done. Make sure the trade still makes your team better. Most of the time, altering your plans is done out of necessity, not choice. If you don’t alter you plans, a deal may have no shot of getting done.

6. Don’t Be Afraid To Walk Away
It is frustrating to walk away from a deal, especially if you have been negotiating for awhile. Having a long discussion end in nothing makes owners feel bad because they spent a whole lot of time and effort and have nothing to show for it. Believe me, I know. I just walked away from two long weeks of negotiations, and it doesn’t feel good. If you can’t get a deal done, use it as fuel to get the next one done. You’ve learned something about how other owners may view the pieces you are offering, so you can apply your new found knowledge to the next deal. The key to walking away from a failed deal is the ability to not take it personally. Segue!

7. Don’t Take It Personally
These deals aren’t personal attacks…usually. Once and awhile owners will try to pick on one another if they think they can fool an owner into taking a deal easier than they can fool another. Even then, it isn’t a personal attack, but an insight into how others value your baseball acumen.

This is article two in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Know Your Opponent
You should have a pretty good idea of your opponents roster entering into trade talks. If you don’t, talks will be far more drawn out and difficult then they have to be. Know what you want from your opponent, and know what he needs.

2. Pre-Offer Communication
I tend not to make offers out of the blue. While there is nothing wrong with just proposing a trade with someone, I always try to send them a quick email to gauge potential interest first. This helps prevent an owner from feeling like you are trying to swoop in and grab one of their players without warning. However, if there is a trading block in your league, and the player you are trying to trade for (or trying to trade away) is on said block, then you do not need any warning before offering a deal, because had a chance to see it coming.

3. Slightly Lopsided Initial Offer
This goes back to our general trading theory. While you need to make an offer they will at least have to consider, you should always try to get the most value out of a deal that you possibly can. Make the offer that gives you the biggest benefit, and once and awhile, it will get accepted. Most of the time, however, it will be the jumping off point.

4. Have A Plan (And Stick To It)
Don’t just offer trades willy-nilly. Before you send a proposal, have an idea of what you are willing to give up. For further clarification, an example is appropriate: Before the season began, I offered  Joel Hanrahan/Jason Marquis for Andy LaRoche/Conor Jackson (20-team wRC/FIP league). I hoped he would take the deal the way it was, because I wanted a 3B and some LF insurance for my bench, and could afford to give up both Hanrahan and Marquis. However, going into the trade, I decided I was willing to give up Luke Gregerson instead of Hanrahan, if it came down to it. And, guess what? It did. We ended up completing a deal because I knew what I was willing to give up.

Part Two will be up tomorrow morning.

This is article one in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

To start us off, we need to first understand the concept of “trading”. While I do believe everyone has an idea of the purpose of trading, I think it tends to get lost due to simple oversight and the tendency to get lost in the moment.

If anyone has taken even the most basic econ class, they will know exactly where I’m going with this. To put it simply, in a trade there is no real “winner” or “loser”. For a trade to occur, both parties need to feel like they are getting something of value in return, and giving up something they value less. While we, as third parties, may be able to step in and render judgement on who got the better deal, both parties will still feel like they’ve won. That’s how trading works, and it always will.

To put it in a less neutral, and more fantasy baseball relevant context, trading is giving up a player you don’t want (or need) for a player that your want (or need). All of you know this, but stepping back and looking at it from a third-person perspective is important.

When you offer a deal to a fellow owner, you are always trying to make your team better. But, so is the other owner. They certainly are not going to accept a deal if they think it makes their team worse, and neither would you.

Remember this the next time you offer someone a deal. Ask yourself “Will they perceive a benefit from this trade,” and you are far more likely to get deals done. Notice that I did not say to ask yourself “Will they get better”, instead “Will they think they are getting better”. While I don’t advocate being a scumbag and ripping people off, you can trick people into making trades that may not actually make their team better.