Morrow’s Keeper Conundrum
In an effort to limit his workload this season, the Blue Jays plan on shutting starter Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s outing against the Yankees. Morrow has established himself as a very good keeper candidate with his strong performances these last couple of months, but is he worth holding on to if he’s going to miss so much time? Here are some things to consider when it comes to keeping Morrow after this season.
1. September Shutdown
I briefly mentioned this above, but it’s a big deal. When a player is scheduled to ride the pine for the last month of the season, it can really complicate things for some owners. For owners who have teams who aren’t in contention, it’s no big deal, but competing owners? That’s a whole other story. For a team trying to win a league title, having all hands of deck is important and cannot be overstated. Some races get really close this time of year, and missing out on five starts could be the difference between first and second place.
2. Losing Eligibility
Thanks to the Mariners jerking him around for so long, Morrow had SP and RP eligibility this year. The Blue Jays have been kind enough to take away the valuable opportunity to slide Morrow into a relief role on your roster. While this isn’t a big deal in daily leagues, weekly owners willing to punt saves and rack up innings will have to make harder decisions next year. While it seems you can always find a starter who’s relief eligible, it’s rare to find one with Morrow’s skills.
3. Innings in 2011
The Blue Jays have said that they try to keep starters from increasing their workload by more than twenty innings. When all is said and done, Morrow will have pitched about 150 innings this year, meaning he’ll probably be around the 175-185 mark next year. Since he turns 26 next July, the Blue Jays may be willing to let him pitch freely next season, but I wouldn’t count on it.
In Conclusion…
Overall, Brandon Morrow and his owners should be asking for some relief appearances during September, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to oblige. A part of me hopes the Blue Jays decide to place him on the DL with a phantom injury, but with roster expansion they won’t be forced to. It’s hard to make a judgement one way or the other without knowing every owner’s situation, and I haven’t even made up my mind yet in one of my leagues. Weigh the facts, and make a decision. That’s all anyone can ever ask for.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Brandon Morrow
FIP 3.16
xFIP 3.61
K/9 10.93
Morrow could be ridiculous next year. Thats all I got to say.
I agree. I think he could end up doing next year what Ubaldo Jimenez is doing this year. The tougher league will hurt him some (specifically in the Win column) but its certainly not out of the question for 15Wins, 200K’s, a WHIP around 1.3 and an ERA in the 3.40 – 3.70 range. I guarantee I own this guy in at least 1 league next year, possibly all 3. The one thing I worry about though is his pre-draft hype. How bad will it get cuz I refuse to draft a pitcher before the 7th round (and I doubt I would make Morrow my 1st SP taken). So he’d have to make it to at least the 9th or 10 round… Will he?
Sounds like we have the same strategy – blue chip bats in rounds 1 through six (or seven) and then load up on guys like Hamels, Nolasco, Baker, Dempster. It’s tough to do well in ERA/WHIP without a 200 IP guy giving you a sub 3.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but each year I have been playing, that guy has been someone I drafted late (Javy Vazquez and Chris Carpenter in 2009, Ubaldo [who I traded for Cliff Lee] in 2010). I think Morrow can make it to round 8 or 9 – pitching is super deep – but I don’t know if I want my ace to be an AL East guy with a terrible career BB/9.
Probably depends on how many keepers. I play in a 16 team H2H points league where we keep 22 out of 27. I’m a Morrow owner and keeping him is a no-brainer.
I hate playing in leagues that force you to have a set number of relief pitchers. Separate outfield spots? Absolutely. But each owner can sort out their own pitchers as they like.
Ditto. We have a 210 games started cap and 9 slots for pitchers. Most of my friends have an innings cap. Not sure what the logic is behind specific pitching slots. In our league, the games started cap forces you to use 2 or 3 relievers each week. An innings cap does the same thing.
I believe the rule the Blue Jays have is no more than a 30 inning pitched increase from one season to the next, not 20. At least that was what they were discussing here in Toronto on the radio.
I don’t really get what “September Shutdown” has to do with Morrow as a keeper consideration for next year? You’re thinking too hard. Morrow has flashed brilliance unlike few others, and I for one will be gambling on that upside. If he pulls up 25 innings short next year.. meh.
I think he’s mostly concerned with keeping Morrow on your roster this year. If you’re in a close race, do you drop Morrow for the added roster spot to really make a push this year or do you waste a roster spot for a month in order to keep him next year?
Any chance of the Jay’s formally DL’ing him? That’d make these concerns disappear.
It seems different things are being said about the innings. The quote I read as follows:
“He is up to 143 1/3 innings and last year pitched 124 2/3 between Class AAA and the majors with the Mariners…
… The Blue Jays try to limit a young pitcher‘s bump in innings over the previous year to about 20 percent. ”
This was from Yahoo, and so I don’t know if that was the original source. But they were quoting Morrow directly in other parts of the article, so it seems like they were on the ball in saying 20 percent as opposed to 20 IP.
One of the reasons Morrow gets so many SOs per inning is because he walks a lot of guys. Every guy you walk, that’s another guy you face, which is another opportunity to strike someone out.
Now, even with that factored in, Morrow is a torrential K guy. But think about those walks… those are some non-negative percentage of a run, whereas they’re zero percentage of an out. It’s an infinite run/out ratio.
He’s gonna get you good Ks but slightly bloated ERA for 80% of the season and then leave your ass come playoff time.
Morrow has posted a sub-3.20 walk rate from May 21st through now. His first 1.5 months were terrible in the walk column. The question becomes whether you trust the last 3.5 months or the first 1.5 months as projection…
I think Morrow has figured something out this year. Will he keep it next year? Ugh, I want him to do well, but I am not convinced.
Look at morrows modified walks rate (BB-IBB+HBP and f-strike percentage on the year and over that frame. Not too inspiring
I think Morrow is going to be excellent.
Not really sure if I agree with the Jay’s strategy here, but I can see the logic.