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Archive for Strategy

RotoGraphs’ Waiver Wire League Final Results and Takeaways

Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft).

Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in.

I took the temperature of our picks back in August, but now that the season is finished, let’s tally up the scoring to get the final results. And while we’re at it, we’ll rank the players based on their fantasy impact in 2012.

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Shoppach and Peralta: Pick Six Values

There’s a pretty good schedule of games tonight, let’s take a look at some of the better value plays for your daily Pick Six

Kelly Shoppach ($0.50)

Much of the ire Rays fans have toward Kelly Shoppach was greatly diminished in game one of the ALDS when the pudgy backstop hit two home runs and drove in five against C.J. Wilson. To the astute viewer it shouldn’t come as that big of a surprise, however. Despite his poor overall numbers – .176/.268/.339 – he hit well against left handed pitching, something he’s done over his whole career. His .788 OPS and .349 wOBA against southpaws this season were the lowest figures of his career, and they’re still above average. Today he’ll face Matt Harrison, another lefty. Harrison has a pretty pronounced platoon split for his career (4.56 FIP vs RHB, 3.98 vs LHB) but the number against right handed batters have improved dramatically this season (3.57 FIP). With a K/9 under 7 and a GB% of 47 he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He’ll work low in the zone to try and induce weak contact and Shoppach will try to take advantage of any mistakes Harrison happens to make. For the low, low cost of $0.50 the reward outweighs the risk.

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Batted Ball Outliers: Regular Hitters

Batters have different hitting styles that allow unique batted ball profiles. Most hitters aren’t able to maintain extreme batted ball values over a few seasons. Here is a look at some regular hitters that should expect their 2010 batted ball data to regress some in 2011.

For hitters (pitchers soon), I looked at BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB for those with a min of 400 PA. To set the baseline, I took the league leading value from the past 3 seasons (min 1200 PA). Then, I selected any player that beat that bench mark. There are not a ton of players that exceed the values because most hitters had a long enough season to get to their true batted ball talent level.

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Playoff Waiver Wire: Sean Rodriguez

There aren’t many players who have bigger gaps in talent from one side of the plate to the other than Sean Rodriguez. The Rays shortstop has shown impressive talent against the Ned Flanderses of the world over his career. This season he’s been 43 percent better than league average against southpaws and 38 percent worse than average against right handers. The differences in OBP and wOBA this season are staggering as well.

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Ottoneu Arbitration: Strategies for the First Off-season Activity

With the season at an end, it is time for those in keeper leagues to turn to the off-season, and for ottoneu players, this starts with one of the most unique parts of the ottoneu format – the arbitration process.

The process itself is actually quite simple:

  • Every owner votes for one player on every other team
  • The player on each team who receives the most votes becomes a free agent
  • At the preseason auction, each owner gets a $5 discount on the player voted off his team

See? Simple.

But if you haven’t been through it before, the strategy can be a bit confusing. Having played five previous seasons of ottoneu fantasy baseball, I wanted to give you my take on the most common voting strategies.
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Snake Draft Retrospective, Ridiculous Bargains Edition

I torture myself every year by looking back at what could have been.

I have a league that has been going on for the better part of two decades – it used to be housed on the old “Sandbox” but migrated to Yahoo many years ago and it has had anywhere from ten to twelve owners year to year. It’s your proverbial bragging rights league, although as we’ve gotten older, more money has been wagered but I’m convinced we’d play for a thimble just to say we beat the next guy. This season, it was set up as a pretty simple standard, ten team non-keeper points league with a snake draft.

With the draft well behind in the rear view mirror and the next one six long months away, I decided to take a look at the results just to see if there was anything to take away from it.

In doing so, I marveled at the bargains that people pulled during the draft, and it rather got me salivating thinking about what hidden gems there will be in 2012. What follows are the highlights from this past March, and a cool reminder that I ought not over-imbibe on draft day until at least the 20th round.

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Pomeranz and Dickey: Streaming Friday Starters

You say you’re season is winding down and you need to pick up a few extra W’s to close the gap on an oppontent? Here are two readily available pitchers with favorable matchups in action tonight

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Keeper Strategy — 2012 Impact Rookies: Starting Pitchers

It’s the final week of our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting potential impact rookies at each position. Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfielders

Here are the starting pitchers.

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Streaming for Steals Based on Catchers, Pitchers

Our own Erik Hahmann pointed out some great stolen-base options earlier this week, but there are enough teams desperate for stolen bases out there that we can try a different tact here. Did you know that the easiest team to steal on is the Boston Red Sox? And the hardest is in Arizona? And that the Red Sox have allowed more than twice as many stolen bases as the Diamondbacks?

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Bourgeois, Revere, Campana: Streaming Steals

With the season winding down the type of fantasy advice people look for changes. You’re not looking to trade for an under the radar player or pick a diamond in the rough from the waiver wire. If you’re team is still in contention it’s likely you’re looking for specific stats to stream in hopes of padding your lead or catching up to your opponent.

Today we’re focusing on steals and looking at three readily available players that can help you Usain Bolt the competition.

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