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Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

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Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

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Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

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David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

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Everth Cabrera, Padres

A Rule V pick-up from the Colorado Rockies organization, Cabrera is a switch-hitting water bug with speed to spare. The Nicaragua native seemed like a long shot to stick on the big league roster for the duration of the 2009 season, as he hadn’t played above the High Class A level.

While Cabrera missed a chunk of time with a left hand injury, he has surpassed expectations in San Diego. In 213 plate appearances, the 22 year-old shortstop is batting .263/.341/.414, with a .344 wOBA. He’s doing a nice job of working the count (9.7 BB%, with a 53.5 First-Pitch Strike% that’s about 5 points below the MLB average) while swiping 15 bags in 17 attempts (an 88% success rate). It’s probably best not to get too carried away with a few hundred PA’s of performance, but the Padres may have pilfered an everyday shortstop from a division rival.

Derek Holland, Rangers

In 91 innings, Holland has a 5.04 ERA. That sounds a trifle disappointing from such a heralded prospect, but his peripherals are actually quite strong. The 22 year-old lefty, ranked by Baseball America as the 2nd-best talent in a fertile Texas farm system, has punched out 7.52 batters per nine innings, while keeping the walks in check as well (2.97 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR per fly ball rate) is 4.25.

Holland’s recent success (he dominated Seattle on July 30th and the Angels last night, with a middling start against Oakland in between) has many taking notice. His K/BB ratio is gradually climbing, but the big difference lies in his BABIP figures:

May: 2.33 K/BB, .369 BABIP
June: 2.63 K/BB, .360 BABIP
July: 2.78 K/BB, .280 BABIP
August: 2.4 K/BB, .182 BABIP

Justin Masterson, Indians

With Carl Pavano headed to the Twin Cities in an August waiver deal, Masterson steps into the Tribe’s starting rotation. The 24 year-old sinker/slider pitcher, acquired in the Victor Martinez swap with Boston, will get a chance to prove he’s capable of handling a lineup multiple times while keeping those pesky left-handers at bay. On the positive side, Masterson has improved his strikeout and walk rates this season (8.54 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 in 79 IP), stifling right-handed hitters as usual (career .210/.287/.307 line vs. RHB in the majors).

Still, the same questions about Masterson’s viability as a starter apply. With a low-three quarters arm angle and no real changeup to speak of, the San Diego State product is susceptible to southpaw batters (.273/.370/.446 in the big leagues).

Billy Butler, Royals

Butler was a hitting prodigy in the minors, authoring a .336/.416/.561 line, walking 11.5 percent of the time and whiffing just 15 percent. The righty batter kept his head above water in major league stints in 2007 (.341 wOBA) and 2008 (.318), but the 22 year-old is adding some pop to his game in 2009. Butler isn’t a prolific power hitter at this point or anything, but his ISO is up to a healthy .183 for the season and he has deposited 13 souvenirs in the bleachers. On a team that features many “swing first, ask questions later” hitters, Butler is a beacon of hope. And the best is yet to come.

David Price, Rays

The much-discussed Vanderbilt product had a bumpy month of July (20 K’s and 18 BB in 27.2 IP), but Price began to turn it around in July (20/10 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and began the month of August with a bang (6 IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB vs. Boston on the 5th). The 6-6 lefty did a much better job of getting ahead of hitters in July, with a 64.2 First-Pitch Strike% that trumped June’s paltry 48.8% rate.

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Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

Lowrie’s 2009 season has been a complete bust. The switch-hitting Stanford product held his own as a rookie last season (.326 wOBA in 306 PA), and he entered the spring looking to usurp Julio Lugo as Boston’s everyday shortstop. Lugo is gone, but Lowrie won’t be the one getting a permanent lineup spot. The 25 year-old has dealt with a lingering left wrist injury (which required surgery) and a balky knee, and he heads back to the DL with numbness thought to be related to the aforementioned surgery.

Delmon Young, Twins

The 1st overall selection by the Rays in the 2003 amateur draft, Young tore through the minors. As a player several years younger than the competition, he compiled a .318/.363/.518 line and made his major league debut at the age of 20. In 131 PA with Tampa in 2006, Delmon posted a .343 wOBA. Sure, the line was batting average-driven and he swung at everything (50.3 O-Swing%), but it’s highly impressive for someone that young to hold their own against major league competition.

Flash forward to 2009. Young is nearing 24 year of age, and he has made absolutely no progress toward becoming a major league-caliber hitter, much less a star. After compiling wOBA’s of .315 in 2007 and .324 in 2008, Young is down to a putrid .274 this season. His approach, if you want to call it that, consists of hacking at anything within a 10-mile radius of the Metrodome.

In 245 PA, Young has a 2.9% walk rate, with a strikeout rate (29.2%) is over 10 percent above his career average. While his outside swing percentage is trending down, we’re speaking in awfully relative terms. Young’s 36.7 O-Swing% in 2009 is still nearly 12 percentage points above the MLB average, and is one of the five highest rates among all hitters. Delmon is a near lock to put himself in the pitcher’s clutches by falling behind in the count: his 68.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 10 percentage points above the big league norm and is the 2nd-highest clip among batters with 200+ PA. With the exception of curveballs, he’s not hitting anything well.

That “he’s young” tag is becoming quite tiresome. It’s certainly possible that he improves, but there’s just no evidence that Delmon Young at 23-24 is any more polished than the 20 year-old hacker we saw back in ’06.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Looking for a fresh start with Seattle after an acrimonious end to his Pirates days, Snell tossed a pretty good ballgame against the Rangers on August 2nd (6 IP, 2 R, 4 K). His second start, however, was disastrous. Lasting just 1.1 frames, Snell walked 6 hitters while coughing up 3 runs vs. the Rays.

The 27 year-old right-hander is perplexing as they come. He was an above-average major league starter as recently as 2007, when he posted a 4.01 FIP (7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9) in 208 innings. The wheels have completely fallen off since then, though. Snell walked 4.87 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has issued 5.42 BB/9 in ’09.

His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has fallen precipitously, to 46.4% this year (3 percentage points below the MLB average). Snell’s Outside Swing%, 28.2 in 2007, is just 22 percent in 2009. He posted a 63.7 first-pitch strike% in ’07, but that figure is a lousy 53% in ’09. Hitters have wised up and just aren’t offering at Snell’s stuff. His 41.8 Swing% is 5th-lowest among starters tossing 80+ innings.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Inked to a 2-year, $18.5 million deal this past off-season, Renteria has done his best Yuniesky Betancourt impression in 2009. The 34 year-old owns a sordid .275 wOBA, second-worst among SS taking at least 300 trips to the plate (Yuniesky is first). Renteria’s pop had been on the wane for several years, but it has all but disappeared this year as he deals with an ailing elbow:

2006: .144 ISO
2007: .138 ISO
2008: .111 ISO
2009: .062 ISO

The former Marlin, Cardinal, Red Sock, Brave and Tiger just hasn’t been able to catch up with fastballs this season. His run value per 100 pitches against the heater is -1.17, one of the 10 worst rates among major league hitters. Combine the slack bat with ordinary D, and you have a sub-replacement player (-0.1 WAR).

Zach Duke, Pirates

This has little to do with Duke himself. Rather, it involves the cast of characters surrounding the southpaw when he takes the mound. As a hurler who uses an 88 MPH fastball, 81 MPH slider, 74 MPH curveball and an 81 MPH change to paint the corners, Duke is highly reliant upon the quality of his defense. His career strikeout rate per nine frames is 4.57, and sits at 4.42 in 2009.

In past years, the pitch-to-contact starter was a very poor fit on a Pirates team that featured plodding fielders. Duke suffered from high BABIP figures from 2006 to 2008 (.327, .360 and .327, respectively). In ’09, the Bucs featured a strong group of defenders to start the season, and Duke’s BABIP has dipped to .279 for the year.

Unfortunately for Zach, most of the fellows are gone now. Andrew McCutchen’s scouting reports, minor league data and early big league work (+3.4 UZR/150) peg him as a definite upgrade over Nate McClouth in CF. But the other changes aren’t so promising:

2B: Freddy Sanchez to Delwyn Young
SS: Jack Wilson to Ronny Cedeno
LF: Nyjer Morgan to Lastings Milledge

Cedeno does not appear to be a big problem at short. However, second base and LF figure to take significant hits. Sanchez (career +4.4 UZR at 2B) has been replaced by Young, a corner outfielder who has not played the keystone spot since he was a Dodgers prospect back in 2005. Morgan’s superb range gives way to Milledge, who was a very poor defender in CF. Perhaps he’s an average corner outfielder, but that’s still a big hit relative to the man he took over for.

Duke might end up giving up more bloops during the next few months because of laggardly leather behind him. He wouldn’t be a bad sell-high candidate.

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Rich Harden, Cubs

Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).

Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.

Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).

McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.

Jeff Niemann, Rays

A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:

Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)

April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6

Kendry Morales, Angels

Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:

CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?

The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).

Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?

Stock Down

Jarrod Washburn, Tigers

The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.

Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.

Brandon Wood, Angels

Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.

In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.

Nick Blackburn, Twins

As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…

BABIP by month

April: .307
May: .273
June: .271

…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.

Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.

Jack Cust, Athletics

Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:

2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%

Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.

If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

A live-armed, 28 year-old lefty who has already been traded four times in his pro career, de la Rosa has intrigued (and frustrated) many big league franchises. However, the Monterrey native finally seems to have found a home in Colorado. de la Rosa’s 4.78 ERA looks just passable, but bear in mind he’s toiling in the best offensive environment in the majors, in front of some generally lackluster defenders (Jorge’s BABIP is .319, and the Rockies rank 24th in team UZR).

In 111 innings this year, de la Rosa has whiffed 9.08 batters per nine frames, with a career-low 3.81 BB/9. That’s not razor-sharp control, but it’s a considerable step above his career 4.68 BB/9. de la Rosa’s fastball continues to be nothing special (-0.84 Runs/100 pitches), but his secondary stuff is deadly. His mid-80’s slider has a +2.04 run value, with Jorge’s changeup coming in at +2.34. de la Rosa’s FIP sits at 3.70 for the season.

Brett Cecil, Blue Jays

The Jays have seemingly filtered through a couple dozen rotation options this season as the club deals with a rash of injuries to its hurlers, but Cecil may be the best of them all. A closer at the University of Maryland, Cecil was converted to the rotation on the basis of his sturdy 6-3 frame and four-pitch arsenal (91 MPH fastball, 85 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve, and 82 MPH change).

The former Terp tore through the minors, striking out over eight-and-a-half hitters per nine innings while posting a groundball rate in excess of 60 percent. Cecil’s control could use some sharpening (he walked about four per nine innings at AAA and has issued 3.66 BB/9 in the bigs), but he has had little problem fooling hitters at the highest level (7.47 K/9). Cecil has a 4.36 XFIP (based on K’s, BB, and a league average HR/FB rate) in 59 innings for Toronto in 2009. He’s basically a league-average starter right now, with considerable room for growth.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Pronk Smash! For better or worse, the Indians owe Hafner roughly $52 million from 2009-2012, meaning he would have to produce somewhere around 11.5 Wins Above Replacement over that period to be “worth” the cash (an average of 2.8-2.9 WAR a year). That’s a mighty tall order for a 32 year-old DH with a recent history of shoulder ailments, but Hafner has produced a .399 wOBA when able to take to the batter’s box in 2009. After seeing his ISO dip to a paltry .125 during an injury-riddled 2008, Hafner has bumped that number up to a healthy .259. Pronk is looking like an anchor on Cleveland’s book keeping, but there’s still some fantasy value to be had here.

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Someone needs to inform Mr. Beckham that this whole…Major League Baseball thing? It’s not supposed to be this easy. The 2008 first-rounder out of Georgia zoomed to the South Side after just 259 minor league plate appearances (.322/.375/.519), and he has performed admirably as a 22 year-old rookie. Beckham holds a .289/.368/.447 line in 175 PA, good for a .352 wOBA. Gordon has displayed very good control of the zone, walking 10.6% of the time while punching out just 15.1%. Beckham has plenty of value in keeper leagues, but you could certainly do worse in the here and now.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

For the majority of his major league career, Blanton had been an Average Joe. His combination of moderate quality (4.17 FIP) and quantity (he made between 32 and 34 starts from 2005-2008) made Blanton a pretty valuable commodity (averaging 3.45 WAR over ’05 to ’08), but the shape of his production has been different in 2009. The former Kentucky Wildcat has a career K rate of 5.52 per nine innings, but he has punched out 7.76 per nine this season while walking 2.59. Blanton had some early-season issues with the home run (his HR/FB% is still bloated at 14.5), but his XFIP (3.91) is a career-best.

How is he garnering the extra punch outs? It’s difficult to say, really. He’s not garnering a ton of outside swings (22.1 O-Swing%, 21.4% career average), his contact rate (84.3%) is about four percent above the MLB average and a near match for his career mark (84.8 percent). Joe’s called and swinging strike percentages are actually down from 2008. About the only discernable trend I can find is a gradual increase in the percentage of fouls Blanton has gotten off of his stuff. What say you, Phillies fans?

Stock Down

Rick Porcello, Tigers

There’s much to like about Porcello in the long term. He won’t turn 21 until December. He possesses a 91 MPH sinker that really bores in on the hands of righty batters, and has helped him generate grounders at a 56.1% clip. He also totes a mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup that are in the development stage, as well as a low-80’s slider that the Tigers basically had him scrap.

In the here and now, though, he still understandably has some things to work on. Porcello has located 47.9 percent of his offerings within the strike zone (below the 49.3% MLB average), with a First-Pitch Strike Percentage (55.5%) that’s also under the big league norm (58.1%). The 6-5 New Jersey prep product has dished out plenty of souvenirs (1.57 HR/9, 19.1 HR/FB%). Given his groundball tendencies, that doesn’t portend to be an issue in the long run. But it could be the product of command that seems to come and go. Porcello is nearly at the 100-inning mark, and the Tigers will likely tread cautiously when it comes to his workload.

Erik Bedard, Mariners

Sigh. I would imagine that by this juncture, Mariners fans get kinda twitchy just at the mention of Bedard’s name. Six years of team control over Adam Jones and Tillman, plus some decent work by closer George Sherrill was the high, high price of acquiring the Baltimore ace. So far, Bedard has tallied just 3 WAR for the M’s. The 30 year-old free-agent-to-be has turned in a typical season in 2009: tantalizing pitching (3.51 FIP in 83 IP) interrupted by a seeming avalanche of physical problems. The latest, shoulder inflammation, sends Bedard to the DL yet again. Now the Mariners likely can’t shop his services, and Bedard won’t bring back a draft pick this winter, either.

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

Coming up with the Dodgers, the junior LaRoche was a walks and doubles machine. He posted a tasty .310/.400/.538 line during his minor league career, which caught Pittsburgh’s eye enough to make him the principal player acquired in last year’s Bay-Manny swap. While few expected LaRoche to be a brute, over-the-fence threat in the majors, his lack of thump is becoming a bit disconcerting. He’s doing a nice job of controlling the zone in 2009 (8.7 BB%, 16K%), but Andy’s work has been bereft of pop. LaRoche’s ISO sits at just .117 for the season. To put that into context, the weak-hitting fellow to LaRoche’s left (Jack Wilson) has a .121 ISO this year. His fielding has improved (+4.3 UZR/150 at 3B), which will give him a little more leeway. But from an offensive standpoint, LaRoche has been pretty boring.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton missed part of the season following surgery to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle, and he still looks rusty at the dish. The 28-year-old lefty batter has hit just .228/.279/.402 in 201 PA, with a .299 wOBA. Josh has gradually become more of a free swinger since his career re-birth in Cincy a few years back:

2007: 26.9 O-Swing%, 56.7 F-Strike%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 60 F-Strike%
2009: 36.3 O-Swing%, 63.5 F-Strike%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 58.1%, respectively)

Hamilton has walked just 6.6% of the time, with a 27.2% K rate. He’s hammering fastballs (+0.89 Runs/100 Pitches), but secondary stuff is giving him the heebie-jeebies (-1.32 for the slider, -1.79 for the curve, -3.33 for the change).

Johnny Cueto, Reds

That Cueto has regressed shouldn’t come as a total and complete shock:

April: 2.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP
May: 2.72 ERA, 4.15 FIP
June: 3.60 ERA, 4.79 FIP

..But Johnny has turned in a pretty rough July (7.61 ERA, 5.97 FIP) in which his 20008 tater problems have re-appeared with a vengeance (1.90 HR/9 this month). He’s certainly been hit-unlucky (.393 BABIP), but Cueto has also issued nearly 5 walks per nine innings.

Stock Up

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners

By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).

If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:

April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.

Roy Oswalt, Astros

It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).

He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?

Adam LaRoche, Pirates

An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).

On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).

While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).

Stock Up

Brad Penny, Red Sox

A fastball-centric pitcher (throwing his heater nearly 71 percent of the time during his career), Penny saw his 2008 season blow up like a cheap ACME bomb as a shoulder injury robbed him of his cheddar (-1.44 runs/100 fastballs). The 31 year-old reclamation project got off to a rough start in Boston (6 K’s and 11 walks in 17.2 April innings), but Penny has heated up as his fastball has improved. Check out this trend:

Penny’s runs/100 value for his fastball

April: -2.95
May: +0.24
June: +0.82
July: +0.44

Penny’s FIP is down to 4.21 in 2009, with 6.19 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Dave Cameron noted Pavano’s unusually strong performance earlier this season , as the oft-injured tabloid punch line finally made some noise on the field. It was starting to look as though another injury was bothering Carl, as he surrendered a stunning 23 runs in a three-start stretch from June 10th to the 24th. However, Pavano has rebounded to turn in two excellent starts vs. the light-hitting White Sox and A’s (a combined 9 K, 2 BB and 4 R in 13.2 IP). The 33 year-old has an inflated 5.36 ERA in 2009 (the product of a .344 BABIP), but his FIP sits at a stellar 3.74.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

After suffering some absurdly high BABIP figures early in the season, Nolasco has been on a roll as of late. Then again, he wasn’t exactly pitching poorly prior to his demotion to AAA:

April: 2.44 K/BB, .393 BABIP
May: 3.75 K/BB, .285 BABIP
June: 6.6 K/BB, .284 BABIP
July: 6.0 K/BB, .214 BABIP

Nolasco’s K rate is up this year (8.72 from 7.88 in 2008), and he’s still been pretty sharp with his control (2.13 BB/9). His FIP checks in at 3.38 (over two runs lower than his 5.42 ERA) after a 12-strikeout mauling of the Pirates on Sunday.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

St. Louis’ number one prospect has been pretty aggressive at the dish (5 BB%, with a 51.3 Swing% above the 45% MLB average), but it’s pretty difficult to criticize a 22 year-old with a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .350. The lefty has already accumulated 2.6 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, third among all center fielders. Some of that is due to Colby posting out-of-his-mind UZR numbers (+26.9 UZR/150), but he has smacked 10 homers (including 3 already this month). His control of the zone should improve as he gains experience. Rasmus posted a walk rate of nearly 13 percent at AAA Memphis in 2008.

Brandon Inge, Tigers

Freed from the intense physical demands of the catching position, Inge has gone on a power binge that includes 19 big flys and a .374 wOBA. Inge’s .244 ISO is over 80 points above his career average (.162). While it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect this level of lumber production to persist, Inge is a better hitter than his career .239/.308/.401 line would indicate. That line is weighed down by a .199/.260/.330 showing in nearly 1,300 PA’s as a backstop. As a third baseman, Inge is a career .258/.330/.435 batter. That’s about what ZiPS expects from the 32 year-old during the rest of the ’09 season (.250/.331/.433).

Stock Down

Joe Saunders, Angels

A few months back, I wondered just how long Saunders could continue to post a mid-three’s ERA despite a minuscule K rate. Joe’s strikeout totals have trended upward as of late (6.2 K/9 in May and 6.6 K/9 in June), but the extra punchouts have come with more free passes (2.59 BB/9 in May, 3.79 BB/9 in June). Saunders’ ERA now sits at 4.44. According to XFIP (which judges a pitcher based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate), the lefty has trended south for the 4th straight season. He compiled a 4.58 XFIP in 2006, 4.62 in ’07, 4.75 in ’08 and 5.05 this year. This is basically who Saunders is: an average Joe 4th or 5th starter.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Without revisiting the whole starter/reliever debate (which isn’t much of a debate when one digs deeper), Chamberlain still needs to make strides in terms of being more efficient on the bump. Joba just hasn’t located all the well this season, with 4.36 BB/9. The former Cornhusker has placed just 43.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49.2% MLB average. With Joba battling his control, opposing batters have wisely kept the bat on their shoulders. Hitters have swung at just 37.9% of Chamberlain’s pitches (45% MLB average). The 23 year-old has an awfully bright future, but he’s not quite ready for prime time.

Brendan Harris, Twins

It’s a little strange that the Twins have decided to play a lesser defender at a premium position, but Harris has compensated by doing his best Punto impression at the dish (.302 wOBA). The 28 year-old righty batter posted a .341 wOBA as a regular with the Devil Rays in 2007, then turned in a .318 wOBA in his first year with the Twins. In ’09, Harris has barely cracked a .100 ISO (.103), while walking just 6 percent of the time. Breaking stuff has stymied him this year (-1.76 runs/100 pitches against sliders, -0.94 versus curveballs).

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics

With Scott Hairston now in green and gold, Sweeney could find himself relegated to fourth outfielder duty. A former top prospect with the White Sox, Sweeney is now 24 years old. The power some had anticipated developing in his 6-4, 215 pound frame just hasn’t appeared: his career ISO in the majors is .091. Sweeney is a gifted fielder; maybe he’ll develop in a Randy-Winn type whose glove compensates for a lack of punch. But the more likely scenario entails a long career as an extra fly catcher.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals

The fact that Duncan is even playing Major League Baseball is a testament to modern medicine, as he had a prosthetic disc inserted into his back last year. However, the 6-5, 230 pounder appears to have left some of his thump on the operating table. Duncan creamed the ball in 2006 (.296 ISO) and 2007 (.221), but that figure dipped to .117 during an injury-marred 2008 season and hasn’t recovered much in the first half of the year (.139). The 28 year-old hit the ball on the ground just 39.9% of the time in 2007, but that mark has climbed to 50.3% in 2009. Combine Duncan’s less-than-thunderous bat with his normally rocky fielding, and you have a replacement-level player (0.1 WAR).

Stock Up

Matt Cain, Giants

One month ago, I noted that Cain had posted middling peripherals to start the 2009 season, with his ERA far surpassing his FIP. Since that point, the 24 year-old has pitched up to his capabilities, blowing opposing batters away to the tune of a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 28.1 frames during the month of June. Cain’s K and walk ratios are now right in line with his career totals: 7.23 K/9 (7.61 career) and 3.52 BB/9 (3.76 career). The 6-3, 245 pounder is getting the job done with his 92 MPH fastball (+1.44 runs per 100 pitches) and 86 MPH changeup (+2.90).

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Tulo posted OPS marks in the low-.700’s in April and May, the product of a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (.225 BABIP in April, .262 in May). The Long Beach State Product has demolished pitchers to the tune of a 1.073 OPS with 5 homers in June (.303 BABIP), as the rolling Rockies creep into wild card contention. Tuloitzki’s 15.1 LD% is about 5 points lower than last season, but he’s arguably enjoying his finest offensive season yet. The 24 year-old’s walk rate is a career high 13.5%, and his .213 ISO is also a career best. Tulowitzki’s flyball percentage is up to 45.3% (38.5% career average), a positive indicator in the power department.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

A switch-hitting, ambidextrous fellow with the ability to passably man three positions, Sandoval is fast becoming one of the most enjoyable players to watch. “Kung-Fu Panda” might not fit into a neat archetype or frame of reference, but he’s turning in one heck of an age-22 season.

A noted free-swinger, Sandoval has made some gains in the plate discipline department: his walk rate is up to 6.4% (2.7% last year), with his Outside-Swing% falling from 53.8% in ’08 to 46% this season. That’s still 21.2 points above the major league average and is surpassed only by teammate Bengie Molina among all qualified hitters, but Sandoval does not need to be a walk machine to be a highly effective hitter. Blessed with great hand-eye coordination and contact skills, Pablo has a reasonable K rate (15 percent), has made contact with about 3 percent more pitches than the major league average and boasts a .205 ISO.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Victimized by a Boston defense that has tumbled from 5th in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2008 to 29th in 2009, Beckett had a .364 BABIP during the month of April. He also didn’t control the zone as well as he usually does during the opening month of the season (1.94 K/BB), resulting in a grisly 7.22 ERA. Beckett’s BABIP is down to .309 now, and he has a 3.56 K/BB ratio over the past two months. After getting himself into hitter’s counts all too frequently in April, Josh has painted the corners in recent starts:

April: 43.5 Zone%, 60.3 First-Pitch Strike%
May: 47.4 Zone%, 63.1 First-Pitch Strike%
June: 54.4 Zone%, 68.5 First-Pitch Strike%

(the MLB averages are 49.1 for Zone% and 58 for F-Strike%; Beckett’s career averages are 53.3% and 61.8%, respectively)

Hunter Pence, Astros

During the offseason, I discussed Pence’s proclivity for chasing pitches off the plate in 2008. Hunter fished at 31.1 percent of offerings outside of the zone, leading to a 6.3% walk rate. Pence’s OBP fell to .318, as the batting average spike he enjoyed in 2007 (.322, with a .378 BABIP) came back down to earth (.269 AVG, with a .303 BABIP).

Pence is again garnering some good fortune on balls put in play (.364 BABIP), which has led to a .331 average. However, he has made some major strides in terms of controlling the zone. His rate of free passes taken has nearly doubled (11.9%), as his O-Swing% has fallen to 26.8%.

Pence wasn’t a particularly good hitter against sliders in 2007 (-0.50 runs per 100 pitches) or 2008 (-0.02), so pitchers threw him the pitch nearly a quarter of the time over those seasons. Advance scouts might need to file a new report on Hunter: hurlers are still feeding him plenty of sliders (26.9%, the third-highest percentage in the bigs), but Pence is pummeling the pitch for a +3.07 run value per 100 pitches. That’s the 13th-highest rate among qualified batters. Houston may be wallowing in mediocrity, and the future looks rather bleak with a fallow farm system, but Pence is looking like a long-term building block.

Stock Down

Dave Bush, Brewers

Bushwhacked: the Milwaukee starter has an inflated 2.00 HR/9 figure (the result of a 16.8 HR/FB% that’s well over his career 12.1% mark), but Bush is allowing hitters to loft the ball at the highest rate of his career. The former Jay has seen his groundball percentage dip from 46.6% in 2006 to 35.1% in 2009. That’s the ninth-highest rate among qualified starters. Lacking an out-pitch, Bush takes a “kitchen sink” approach to the mound by throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, slider and changeup. Out of all those options, only his cutter (thrown 7.6% of the time) has a positive run value in 2009.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Under GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have seemingly collected former Braves farmhands like some people collect bottle caps or stamps. The acquisition of Davies (in July of ’07 for Octavio Dotel) has largely been a bust, however. The 6-2, 205 pound righty pitched decently for K.C. in 2008 (4.22 FIP, with 5.65 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9), but his walk rate ballooned to 4.63 per nine innings in 2009.

Locating just 44.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone and posting a 52 First-Pitch Strike%, Davies was demoted to AAA Omaha over the weekend.

Casey Kotchman, Braves

The Braves rank just 13th in National League team wOBA in 2009. While the banjo-hitting of Atlanta’s corner outfielders has been discussed extensively, the club is also receiving subpar production from the per-eminent power position on the diamond. Kotchman’s ISO has dropped in each of the past three seasons: .172 in 2007, .137 in 2008 and a middle infielder-like .113 in 2009. For comparison, the MLB average at the position is .213. The 26 year-old has devolved from intriguing prospect to liability.

Magglio Ordonez, Tigers

Speaking of power outages, Ordonez is experiencing one that would put the ’77 Bronx Blackout to shame. Magglio’s ISO has fallen off a cliff, from .176 in 2008 to .069 in 2009. The 35 year-old’s groundball percentage has skyrocketed from 43.6% in ’08 to 59.8% in 2009. Among qualified hitters, only Luis Castillo and Skip Schumaker have put the ball on the ground more often. Considering that Ordonez would have a difficult time dusting manager Jim Leyland in a footrace (2.7 Speed Score, way below the 5.1 MLB average), that’s an unhappy development.

Speaking of Leyland, the Tigers skipper recently intimated that Magglio could be grabbing pine more often in the coming months. That decision may well have financial motivations (Ordonez has a hefty $18M option for 2010 based on accumulated playing time), but the former White Sox slugger seems to be losing bat speed. Over the last three seasons, Odronez’s run value per 100 pitches versus the fastball has fallen from +1.81 in ’07, +0.24 in ’08 and just -1.28 in ’09.

Ross Ohlendorf, Pirates

The one where Ross can’t fool anybody: Part of the Bronx swag for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last summer, Ohlendorf posted a 3.24 ERA in April while benefitting from a .260 BABIP. Since that point, the Princeton product has gotten battered to the tune of a 5.20 ERA in May and a 6.33 mark in June.

Ohlendorf has exhibited good control (2.41 BB/9), but his 4.61 K’s per nine innings is the 12th-lowest rate among qualified starters. While many of those with similar K rates compensate with a boatload of groundballs (think Cook, Pineiro, Marquis and Pelfrey), Ross has a 44.7 GB% that’s right around the MLB average. Lefties have teed off against Ohlendorf (.325/.380/.530), continuing a trend of getting smashed by southpaws (.342/.404/.569 in the majors).

Stock Up

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

During the off-season, I wondered if Hermida might be headed for a Griev(e)ous career path, as a highly-touted prospect who quickly fades. His once-acclaimed plate discipline had eroded, and his power failed to develop. Hermida offered at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2006, but that figure had climbed all the way to 27.8% by 2008 (the MLB average hovers around 25 percent). Compounding matters, his percentage of pitches swung at within the zone went down (from 64.1% in ’06 to 59.6% in ’08). For a guy with a career .398 OBP in the minors, this was an awfully strange development.

In 2009, Hermida’s beginning to reverse those trends. His outside-swing percentage is down to 23.9, and he’s taking a cut at pitches within the zone 61 percent of the time. Hermida’s walk rate is up nearly four percent (12.6 BB% in ’09, 8.7 BB% in ’08), and his wOBA sits at .355 after last year’s tepid .321. He’s still not pummeling the ball (.145 ISO), but the 25 year-old has lofted 3 dingers over the past week. Hermida might not ever develop into a full-fledged star, but he’s looking like a solid offensive cog.

Scott Baker, Twins

Fresh off a highly promising 2008 season in which he posted a 3.36 K/BB ratio and a 3.79 FIP, Baker was battered by the long ball to begin 2009. The Oklahoma State product coughed up a stunning 14 big flys over the first two months. Baker is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.5 GB%) who will give up his share of round-trippers, but he has settled down after that fireworks bonanza. The 27 year-old’s FIP is at 4.55 and dropping. His K/BB ratio is a superb 5.17, and he’s dominating hitters to the tune of a 23/2 K/BB in June.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

Reynolds’ average has little chance of remaining in the .280’s (he’s whiffing nearly 39% of the time and has a BABIP of .384), but this Arizona slugger is turning in a quality season nonetheless. His walk rate is up a tick (from 10.6% in ’08 to 11.8 this season), with an ISO increase from .219 to .294 (10th among qualified hitters). After scuffling versus same-handed pitching in 2008 (.226/.298/.409 vs. RHP), Reynolds has hung in there against righties for a .280/.358/.566 line in 2009.

The third baseman/ first baseman has seen a ton of sliders this year (26 percent), likely the result of his poor performance against the pitch last season (-1.73 runs below average per 100 pitches). In 2009, however, Reynolds is smacking the slider at a +1.29 run pace. To boot, he has also already eclipsed his SB total from last season: Reynolds has 13 swipes in 16 attempts.

Ben Zobrist, Rays

This is getting ridiculous. The switch-hitting Zobrist, a former Astros prospect acquired in the 2006 Aubrey Huff swap, posted a career .318/.428/.459 line in the minors. He owned the upper minors, but failed to hit in two trials with Tampa in 2006 (.243 wOBA in 198 PA) and 2007 (.180 wOBA in 105 PA).

Zobrist got his foot in the door last season, with a .364 wOBA (.253/.339/.505 in 227 PA). This year? He’s doing his best Mickey Mantle impression, with an absurd .460 wOBA and a .309/.424/.667 line in 198 PA. He’s walking at a Bondsian clip (16.7%), with a near .360 ISO. Among batters with at least 190 trips to the dish, Zobrist is tied with Boston’s Youkilis for the highest wOBA.

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect this to continue, but Zobrist looks like a highly valuable player anyway. The rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him posting a .282/.360/.450 line. Better yet for fantasy owners, Zobrist’s position versatility should make him eligible in the outfield, second base and possibly shortstop.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

Nolasco has endured one of the most bizarre seasons from a starter in quite some time. If you focused just on his ERA, you would assume that he was some Sidney Ponson/John Van Benschoten love child (7.62 ERA). However, his peripherals aren’t bad by any stretch: 7.94 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, good for a 4.10 FIP. Somehow, Nolasco’s BABIP sits at .399; balls put in play against him are falling for hits as if every hitter were Ty Cobb.

Some of the blame can certainly be laid at the feet of Florida’s defenders, who rank ahead of only the last-at-everything Nationals in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Fish fielders have converted balls put in play into outs 68.5 percent of the time (23rd in the majors). Even if the Florida’s pitchers have a collective .315 BABIP, Nolasco’s near .400 mark sticks out like a sore thumb.

Plenty of line drives have been hit against Nolasco (24.7%), but it’s hard to say that a guy garnering an above-average rate of swings outside of the strike zone (27.3%), with a contact rate (79%) below the league average (80.6%) has been lit up. Nolasco’s abhorrent BABIP and extremely low strand rate (54.7%) will improve moving forward, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

Stock Down

Chris Young, Padres

Has anyone seen Young’s fastball? The 6-10 Ivy Leaguer has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons: 88.7 MPH in 2007, 87.2 in ’08 and just 85.8 in ’09. That’s a problem for a flyball pitcher who likes to work high in the zone. Young has thrown his heater nearly three-quarters of the time during his career, and continues to chuck fastballs over 70 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the pitch scarcely resembles its former self.

Young’s run value on the cheese has gone from +1.26 per 100 pitches in 2007 to +0.91 in ’08 and a lousy -0.64 in 2009. His contact rate is up significantly (76.1% in ’07 to 83.2% in ’09), and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone (about 3 percent below the 48.9% MLB average this year). With below-average cheddar thrown at the letters, Young’s HR rate has soared from 0.52 per nine innings in 2007, 1.14 in ’08 and 1.42 in ’09. And that’s without an inflated HR/FB rate (just 10%), and the benefit of Petco.

Honestly, it’s hard to make the case that Young is even a league-average pitcher at this stage. Take a look at his ERA+ figures over the past three seasons (ERA+ park-adjusts a pitcher’s ERA, placing it on a scale where 100 is average, above 100 is above-average and below 100 is below-average):

2007: 129 ERA+
2008: 97 ERA+
2009: 72 ERA+

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

Galarraga was due for some regression this season (4.88 FIP in 2008, compared to a more sparkly 3.73 ERA), but he’s just been plain bad this year. His ERA sits at 5.56, with an even worse 5.93 FIP. His K rate is down to 5.68 from 2008’s 6.35, with an increase in free passes from 3.07 per nine to 4.13. Armando’s low-90’s fastball is getting roped (-2.14 runs per 100 pitches), and his mid-80’s slider/cutter (thrown 41.2% of the time) is getting crunched as well. The pitch had a +2.69 run value in ’08, but comes in at a paltry -0.08 in 2009.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies’

Rollins’ struggles have been well-documented, as the 2007 N.L. MVP has a macabre .258 wOBA. J-Roll has done more damage in the batter’s box than any other player, with a stunning -17.7 Batting Runs.

A .226 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Rollins has drawn a walk just 4.3% of the time after last year’s career-high 9.4% pace. His ISO (.112) is at the lowest point since a small cup of jobe with Philly back in 2000. Strangely, Rollins has gone from a very good fastball hitter to one of the worst over the past several seasons:

Runs/100 pitches value against fastballs, 2006-2009

2006: +1.20
2007: +0.58
2008: -0.12
2009: -2.04

Only Bengie Molina and Brian Giles have fared worse against the heat in 2009.

Daniel Murphy, Mets

While Murphy wasn’t out in left field long enough for us to derive a significant sample, the consensus seems to be that he performed about as well as a grizzly bear on roller skates. As such, Murphy (a former 2B/3B in the minors) is likely relegated to first base, where offensive expectations are exceptionally high: the average MLB first baseman is batting .276/.364/.487 in 2009. Murphy is making plenty of contact (11.6 K%) and his .248 BABIP should improve, but a .116 ISO just doesn’t get it done. He’s 24 and has time to improve, but Murphy is looking more like a Ross Gload-type at this point.

Dontrelle Willis, Tigers

Willis’ peripherals had been headed south during his last two seasons in Florida and he accumulated a ton of mileage on his arm at a young age, but the optimist and fan in me hoped that Dontrelle could find at least some semblance of his former self this season. Sadly, that does not appear to be in the cards.

The 27 year-old D-Train has a mind-bending 17/28 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings after yesterday’s 8-walk disaster in Pittsburgh. Just 42% of his offerings have been within the strike zone, making hitters understandably hesitant to swing (41 swing%, compared to the 44.8% MLB average). When batters do take the lumber off their shoulders, they’re making contact about 7 percent more than the MLB average. I really do wish Willis the best, but there’s nothing positive to say here.