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Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).

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Brad Penny, Red Sox

A fastball-centric pitcher (throwing his heater nearly 71 percent of the time during his career), Penny saw his 2008 season blow up like a cheap ACME bomb as a shoulder injury robbed him of his cheddar (-1.44 runs/100 fastballs). The 31 year-old reclamation project got off to a rough start in Boston (6 K’s and 11 walks in 17.2 April innings), but Penny has heated up as his fastball has improved. Check out this trend:

Penny’s runs/100 value for his fastball

April: -2.95
May: +0.24
June: +0.82
July: +0.44

Penny’s FIP is down to 4.21 in 2009, with 6.19 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Dave Cameron noted Pavano’s unusually strong performance earlier this season , as the oft-injured tabloid punch line finally made some noise on the field. It was starting to look as though another injury was bothering Carl, as he surrendered a stunning 23 runs in a three-start stretch from June 10th to the 24th. However, Pavano has rebounded to turn in two excellent starts vs. the light-hitting White Sox and A’s (a combined 9 K, 2 BB and 4 R in 13.2 IP). The 33 year-old has an inflated 5.36 ERA in 2009 (the product of a .344 BABIP), but his FIP sits at a stellar 3.74.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

After suffering some absurdly high BABIP figures early in the season, Nolasco has been on a roll as of late. Then again, he wasn’t exactly pitching poorly prior to his demotion to AAA:

April: 2.44 K/BB, .393 BABIP
May: 3.75 K/BB, .285 BABIP
June: 6.6 K/BB, .284 BABIP
July: 6.0 K/BB, .214 BABIP

Nolasco’s K rate is up this year (8.72 from 7.88 in 2008), and he’s still been pretty sharp with his control (2.13 BB/9). His FIP checks in at 3.38 (over two runs lower than his 5.42 ERA) after a 12-strikeout mauling of the Pirates on Sunday.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

St. Louis’ number one prospect has been pretty aggressive at the dish (5 BB%, with a 51.3 Swing% above the 45% MLB average), but it’s pretty difficult to criticize a 22 year-old with a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .350. The lefty has already accumulated 2.6 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, third among all center fielders. Some of that is due to Colby posting out-of-his-mind UZR numbers (+26.9 UZR/150), but he has smacked 10 homers (including 3 already this month). His control of the zone should improve as he gains experience. Rasmus posted a walk rate of nearly 13 percent at AAA Memphis in 2008.

Brandon Inge, Tigers

Freed from the intense physical demands of the catching position, Inge has gone on a power binge that includes 19 big flys and a .374 wOBA. Inge’s .244 ISO is over 80 points above his career average (.162). While it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect this level of lumber production to persist, Inge is a better hitter than his career .239/.308/.401 line would indicate. That line is weighed down by a .199/.260/.330 showing in nearly 1,300 PA’s as a backstop. As a third baseman, Inge is a career .258/.330/.435 batter. That’s about what ZiPS expects from the 32 year-old during the rest of the ’09 season (.250/.331/.433).

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Joe Saunders, Angels

A few months back, I wondered just how long Saunders could continue to post a mid-three’s ERA despite a minuscule K rate. Joe’s strikeout totals have trended upward as of late (6.2 K/9 in May and 6.6 K/9 in June), but the extra punchouts have come with more free passes (2.59 BB/9 in May, 3.79 BB/9 in June). Saunders’ ERA now sits at 4.44. According to XFIP (which judges a pitcher based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate), the lefty has trended south for the 4th straight season. He compiled a 4.58 XFIP in 2006, 4.62 in ’07, 4.75 in ’08 and 5.05 this year. This is basically who Saunders is: an average Joe 4th or 5th starter.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Without revisiting the whole starter/reliever debate (which isn’t much of a debate when one digs deeper), Chamberlain still needs to make strides in terms of being more efficient on the bump. Joba just hasn’t located all the well this season, with 4.36 BB/9. The former Cornhusker has placed just 43.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49.2% MLB average. With Joba battling his control, opposing batters have wisely kept the bat on their shoulders. Hitters have swung at just 37.9% of Chamberlain’s pitches (45% MLB average). The 23 year-old has an awfully bright future, but he’s not quite ready for prime time.

Brendan Harris, Twins

It’s a little strange that the Twins have decided to play a lesser defender at a premium position, but Harris has compensated by doing his best Punto impression at the dish (.302 wOBA). The 28 year-old righty batter posted a .341 wOBA as a regular with the Devil Rays in 2007, then turned in a .318 wOBA in his first year with the Twins. In ’09, Harris has barely cracked a .100 ISO (.103), while walking just 6 percent of the time. Breaking stuff has stymied him this year (-1.76 runs/100 pitches against sliders, -0.94 versus curveballs).

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics

With Scott Hairston now in green and gold, Sweeney could find himself relegated to fourth outfielder duty. A former top prospect with the White Sox, Sweeney is now 24 years old. The power some had anticipated developing in his 6-4, 215 pound frame just hasn’t appeared: his career ISO in the majors is .091. Sweeney is a gifted fielder; maybe he’ll develop in a Randy-Winn type whose glove compensates for a lack of punch. But the more likely scenario entails a long career as an extra fly catcher.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals

The fact that Duncan is even playing Major League Baseball is a testament to modern medicine, as he had a prosthetic disc inserted into his back last year. However, the 6-5, 230 pounder appears to have left some of his thump on the operating table. Duncan creamed the ball in 2006 (.296 ISO) and 2007 (.221), but that figure dipped to .117 during an injury-marred 2008 season and hasn’t recovered much in the first half of the year (.139). The 28 year-old hit the ball on the ground just 39.9% of the time in 2007, but that mark has climbed to 50.3% in 2009. Combine Duncan’s less-than-thunderous bat with his normally rocky fielding, and you have a replacement-level player (0.1 WAR).

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Matt Cain, Giants

One month ago, I noted that Cain had posted middling peripherals to start the 2009 season, with his ERA far surpassing his FIP. Since that point, the 24 year-old has pitched up to his capabilities, blowing opposing batters away to the tune of a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 28.1 frames during the month of June. Cain’s K and walk ratios are now right in line with his career totals: 7.23 K/9 (7.61 career) and 3.52 BB/9 (3.76 career). The 6-3, 245 pounder is getting the job done with his 92 MPH fastball (+1.44 runs per 100 pitches) and 86 MPH changeup (+2.90).

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Tulo posted OPS marks in the low-.700’s in April and May, the product of a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (.225 BABIP in April, .262 in May). The Long Beach State Product has demolished pitchers to the tune of a 1.073 OPS with 5 homers in June (.303 BABIP), as the rolling Rockies creep into wild card contention. Tuloitzki’s 15.1 LD% is about 5 points lower than last season, but he’s arguably enjoying his finest offensive season yet. The 24 year-old’s walk rate is a career high 13.5%, and his .213 ISO is also a career best. Tulowitzki’s flyball percentage is up to 45.3% (38.5% career average), a positive indicator in the power department.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

A switch-hitting, ambidextrous fellow with the ability to passably man three positions, Sandoval is fast becoming one of the most enjoyable players to watch. “Kung-Fu Panda” might not fit into a neat archetype or frame of reference, but he’s turning in one heck of an age-22 season.

A noted free-swinger, Sandoval has made some gains in the plate discipline department: his walk rate is up to 6.4% (2.7% last year), with his Outside-Swing% falling from 53.8% in ’08 to 46% this season. That’s still 21.2 points above the major league average and is surpassed only by teammate Bengie Molina among all qualified hitters, but Sandoval does not need to be a walk machine to be a highly effective hitter. Blessed with great hand-eye coordination and contact skills, Pablo has a reasonable K rate (15 percent), has made contact with about 3 percent more pitches than the major league average and boasts a .205 ISO.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Victimized by a Boston defense that has tumbled from 5th in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2008 to 29th in 2009, Beckett had a .364 BABIP during the month of April. He also didn’t control the zone as well as he usually does during the opening month of the season (1.94 K/BB), resulting in a grisly 7.22 ERA. Beckett’s BABIP is down to .309 now, and he has a 3.56 K/BB ratio over the past two months. After getting himself into hitter’s counts all too frequently in April, Josh has painted the corners in recent starts:

April: 43.5 Zone%, 60.3 First-Pitch Strike%
May: 47.4 Zone%, 63.1 First-Pitch Strike%
June: 54.4 Zone%, 68.5 First-Pitch Strike%

(the MLB averages are 49.1 for Zone% and 58 for F-Strike%; Beckett’s career averages are 53.3% and 61.8%, respectively)

Hunter Pence, Astros

During the offseason, I discussed Pence’s proclivity for chasing pitches off the plate in 2008. Hunter fished at 31.1 percent of offerings outside of the zone, leading to a 6.3% walk rate. Pence’s OBP fell to .318, as the batting average spike he enjoyed in 2007 (.322, with a .378 BABIP) came back down to earth (.269 AVG, with a .303 BABIP).

Pence is again garnering some good fortune on balls put in play (.364 BABIP), which has led to a .331 average. However, he has made some major strides in terms of controlling the zone. His rate of free passes taken has nearly doubled (11.9%), as his O-Swing% has fallen to 26.8%.

Pence wasn’t a particularly good hitter against sliders in 2007 (-0.50 runs per 100 pitches) or 2008 (-0.02), so pitchers threw him the pitch nearly a quarter of the time over those seasons. Advance scouts might need to file a new report on Hunter: hurlers are still feeding him plenty of sliders (26.9%, the third-highest percentage in the bigs), but Pence is pummeling the pitch for a +3.07 run value per 100 pitches. That’s the 13th-highest rate among qualified batters. Houston may be wallowing in mediocrity, and the future looks rather bleak with a fallow farm system, but Pence is looking like a long-term building block.

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Dave Bush, Brewers

Bushwhacked: the Milwaukee starter has an inflated 2.00 HR/9 figure (the result of a 16.8 HR/FB% that’s well over his career 12.1% mark), but Bush is allowing hitters to loft the ball at the highest rate of his career. The former Jay has seen his groundball percentage dip from 46.6% in 2006 to 35.1% in 2009. That’s the ninth-highest rate among qualified starters. Lacking an out-pitch, Bush takes a “kitchen sink” approach to the mound by throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, slider and changeup. Out of all those options, only his cutter (thrown 7.6% of the time) has a positive run value in 2009.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Under GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have seemingly collected former Braves farmhands like some people collect bottle caps or stamps. The acquisition of Davies (in July of ’07 for Octavio Dotel) has largely been a bust, however. The 6-2, 205 pound righty pitched decently for K.C. in 2008 (4.22 FIP, with 5.65 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9), but his walk rate ballooned to 4.63 per nine innings in 2009.

Locating just 44.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone and posting a 52 First-Pitch Strike%, Davies was demoted to AAA Omaha over the weekend.

Casey Kotchman, Braves

The Braves rank just 13th in National League team wOBA in 2009. While the banjo-hitting of Atlanta’s corner outfielders has been discussed extensively, the club is also receiving subpar production from the per-eminent power position on the diamond. Kotchman’s ISO has dropped in each of the past three seasons: .172 in 2007, .137 in 2008 and a middle infielder-like .113 in 2009. For comparison, the MLB average at the position is .213. The 26 year-old has devolved from intriguing prospect to liability.

Magglio Ordonez, Tigers

Speaking of power outages, Ordonez is experiencing one that would put the ’77 Bronx Blackout to shame. Magglio’s ISO has fallen off a cliff, from .176 in 2008 to .069 in 2009. The 35 year-old’s groundball percentage has skyrocketed from 43.6% in ’08 to 59.8% in 2009. Among qualified hitters, only Luis Castillo and Skip Schumaker have put the ball on the ground more often. Considering that Ordonez would have a difficult time dusting manager Jim Leyland in a footrace (2.7 Speed Score, way below the 5.1 MLB average), that’s an unhappy development.

Speaking of Leyland, the Tigers skipper recently intimated that Magglio could be grabbing pine more often in the coming months. That decision may well have financial motivations (Ordonez has a hefty $18M option for 2010 based on accumulated playing time), but the former White Sox slugger seems to be losing bat speed. Over the last three seasons, Odronez’s run value per 100 pitches versus the fastball has fallen from +1.81 in ’07, +0.24 in ’08 and just -1.28 in ’09.

Ross Ohlendorf, Pirates

The one where Ross can’t fool anybody: Part of the Bronx swag for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last summer, Ohlendorf posted a 3.24 ERA in April while benefitting from a .260 BABIP. Since that point, the Princeton product has gotten battered to the tune of a 5.20 ERA in May and a 6.33 mark in June.

Ohlendorf has exhibited good control (2.41 BB/9), but his 4.61 K’s per nine innings is the 12th-lowest rate among qualified starters. While many of those with similar K rates compensate with a boatload of groundballs (think Cook, Pineiro, Marquis and Pelfrey), Ross has a 44.7 GB% that’s right around the MLB average. Lefties have teed off against Ohlendorf (.325/.380/.530), continuing a trend of getting smashed by southpaws (.342/.404/.569 in the majors).

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Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

During the off-season, I wondered if Hermida might be headed for a Griev(e)ous career path, as a highly-touted prospect who quickly fades. His once-acclaimed plate discipline had eroded, and his power failed to develop. Hermida offered at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2006, but that figure had climbed all the way to 27.8% by 2008 (the MLB average hovers around 25 percent). Compounding matters, his percentage of pitches swung at within the zone went down (from 64.1% in ’06 to 59.6% in ’08). For a guy with a career .398 OBP in the minors, this was an awfully strange development.

In 2009, Hermida’s beginning to reverse those trends. His outside-swing percentage is down to 23.9, and he’s taking a cut at pitches within the zone 61 percent of the time. Hermida’s walk rate is up nearly four percent (12.6 BB% in ’09, 8.7 BB% in ’08), and his wOBA sits at .355 after last year’s tepid .321. He’s still not pummeling the ball (.145 ISO), but the 25 year-old has lofted 3 dingers over the past week. Hermida might not ever develop into a full-fledged star, but he’s looking like a solid offensive cog.

Scott Baker, Twins

Fresh off a highly promising 2008 season in which he posted a 3.36 K/BB ratio and a 3.79 FIP, Baker was battered by the long ball to begin 2009. The Oklahoma State product coughed up a stunning 14 big flys over the first two months. Baker is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.5 GB%) who will give up his share of round-trippers, but he has settled down after that fireworks bonanza. The 27 year-old’s FIP is at 4.55 and dropping. His K/BB ratio is a superb 5.17, and he’s dominating hitters to the tune of a 23/2 K/BB in June.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

Reynolds’ average has little chance of remaining in the .280’s (he’s whiffing nearly 39% of the time and has a BABIP of .384), but this Arizona slugger is turning in a quality season nonetheless. His walk rate is up a tick (from 10.6% in ’08 to 11.8 this season), with an ISO increase from .219 to .294 (10th among qualified hitters). After scuffling versus same-handed pitching in 2008 (.226/.298/.409 vs. RHP), Reynolds has hung in there against righties for a .280/.358/.566 line in 2009.

The third baseman/ first baseman has seen a ton of sliders this year (26 percent), likely the result of his poor performance against the pitch last season (-1.73 runs below average per 100 pitches). In 2009, however, Reynolds is smacking the slider at a +1.29 run pace. To boot, he has also already eclipsed his SB total from last season: Reynolds has 13 swipes in 16 attempts.

Ben Zobrist, Rays

This is getting ridiculous. The switch-hitting Zobrist, a former Astros prospect acquired in the 2006 Aubrey Huff swap, posted a career .318/.428/.459 line in the minors. He owned the upper minors, but failed to hit in two trials with Tampa in 2006 (.243 wOBA in 198 PA) and 2007 (.180 wOBA in 105 PA).

Zobrist got his foot in the door last season, with a .364 wOBA (.253/.339/.505 in 227 PA). This year? He’s doing his best Mickey Mantle impression, with an absurd .460 wOBA and a .309/.424/.667 line in 198 PA. He’s walking at a Bondsian clip (16.7%), with a near .360 ISO. Among batters with at least 190 trips to the dish, Zobrist is tied with Boston’s Youkilis for the highest wOBA.

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect this to continue, but Zobrist looks like a highly valuable player anyway. The rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him posting a .282/.360/.450 line. Better yet for fantasy owners, Zobrist’s position versatility should make him eligible in the outfield, second base and possibly shortstop.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

Nolasco has endured one of the most bizarre seasons from a starter in quite some time. If you focused just on his ERA, you would assume that he was some Sidney Ponson/John Van Benschoten love child (7.62 ERA). However, his peripherals aren’t bad by any stretch: 7.94 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, good for a 4.10 FIP. Somehow, Nolasco’s BABIP sits at .399; balls put in play against him are falling for hits as if every hitter were Ty Cobb.

Some of the blame can certainly be laid at the feet of Florida’s defenders, who rank ahead of only the last-at-everything Nationals in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Fish fielders have converted balls put in play into outs 68.5 percent of the time (23rd in the majors). Even if the Florida’s pitchers have a collective .315 BABIP, Nolasco’s near .400 mark sticks out like a sore thumb.

Plenty of line drives have been hit against Nolasco (24.7%), but it’s hard to say that a guy garnering an above-average rate of swings outside of the strike zone (27.3%), with a contact rate (79%) below the league average (80.6%) has been lit up. Nolasco’s abhorrent BABIP and extremely low strand rate (54.7%) will improve moving forward, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

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Chris Young, Padres

Has anyone seen Young’s fastball? The 6-10 Ivy Leaguer has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons: 88.7 MPH in 2007, 87.2 in ’08 and just 85.8 in ’09. That’s a problem for a flyball pitcher who likes to work high in the zone. Young has thrown his heater nearly three-quarters of the time during his career, and continues to chuck fastballs over 70 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the pitch scarcely resembles its former self.

Young’s run value on the cheese has gone from +1.26 per 100 pitches in 2007 to +0.91 in ’08 and a lousy -0.64 in 2009. His contact rate is up significantly (76.1% in ’07 to 83.2% in ’09), and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone (about 3 percent below the 48.9% MLB average this year). With below-average cheddar thrown at the letters, Young’s HR rate has soared from 0.52 per nine innings in 2007, 1.14 in ’08 and 1.42 in ’09. And that’s without an inflated HR/FB rate (just 10%), and the benefit of Petco.

Honestly, it’s hard to make the case that Young is even a league-average pitcher at this stage. Take a look at his ERA+ figures over the past three seasons (ERA+ park-adjusts a pitcher’s ERA, placing it on a scale where 100 is average, above 100 is above-average and below 100 is below-average):

2007: 129 ERA+
2008: 97 ERA+
2009: 72 ERA+

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

Galarraga was due for some regression this season (4.88 FIP in 2008, compared to a more sparkly 3.73 ERA), but he’s just been plain bad this year. His ERA sits at 5.56, with an even worse 5.93 FIP. His K rate is down to 5.68 from 2008’s 6.35, with an increase in free passes from 3.07 per nine to 4.13. Armando’s low-90’s fastball is getting roped (-2.14 runs per 100 pitches), and his mid-80’s slider/cutter (thrown 41.2% of the time) is getting crunched as well. The pitch had a +2.69 run value in ’08, but comes in at a paltry -0.08 in 2009.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies’

Rollins’ struggles have been well-documented, as the 2007 N.L. MVP has a macabre .258 wOBA. J-Roll has done more damage in the batter’s box than any other player, with a stunning -17.7 Batting Runs.

A .226 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Rollins has drawn a walk just 4.3% of the time after last year’s career-high 9.4% pace. His ISO (.112) is at the lowest point since a small cup of jobe with Philly back in 2000. Strangely, Rollins has gone from a very good fastball hitter to one of the worst over the past several seasons:

Runs/100 pitches value against fastballs, 2006-2009

2006: +1.20
2007: +0.58
2008: -0.12
2009: -2.04

Only Bengie Molina and Brian Giles have fared worse against the heat in 2009.

Daniel Murphy, Mets

While Murphy wasn’t out in left field long enough for us to derive a significant sample, the consensus seems to be that he performed about as well as a grizzly bear on roller skates. As such, Murphy (a former 2B/3B in the minors) is likely relegated to first base, where offensive expectations are exceptionally high: the average MLB first baseman is batting .276/.364/.487 in 2009. Murphy is making plenty of contact (11.6 K%) and his .248 BABIP should improve, but a .116 ISO just doesn’t get it done. He’s 24 and has time to improve, but Murphy is looking more like a Ross Gload-type at this point.

Dontrelle Willis, Tigers

Willis’ peripherals had been headed south during his last two seasons in Florida and he accumulated a ton of mileage on his arm at a young age, but the optimist and fan in me hoped that Dontrelle could find at least some semblance of his former self this season. Sadly, that does not appear to be in the cards.

The 27 year-old D-Train has a mind-bending 17/28 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings after yesterday’s 8-walk disaster in Pittsburgh. Just 42% of his offerings have been within the strike zone, making hitters understandably hesitant to swing (41 swing%, compared to the 44.8% MLB average). When batters do take the lumber off their shoulders, they’re making contact about 7 percent more than the MLB average. I really do wish Willis the best, but there’s nothing positive to say here.

Stock Up

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

Pilfered from the Mariners in the summer of 2006 for the low, low price of Ben Broussard (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, too? You’re the best, Mr. Bavasi!), Choo is quietly raking in Cleveland. The 26 year-old South Korean hit a searing .309/.397/.549 (.402 wOBA) in 2008, and he has followed that up with a .298/.410/.468 line (.398 wOBA) in 2009. Mr. Choo is drawing walks at a 15.3% clip, the 17th-highest rate among qualified batters. He might not show a whole lot of sock versus southpaws (career .387 SLG% vs. LHP), but Choo crushes righties (.515).

Jon Lester, Red Sox

Lester’s early season “struggles” appeared to be more the product of poor luck on balls in play and a sky-high HR/FB rate, and sure enough, the 25 year-old lefty has been dealing lately. Lester punched out 12 batters versus the Blue Jays on May 31st, and followed that up with 11 whiffs against the Rangers on June 6th. His K rate sits at a whopping 10.29 per nine innings, 5th among starting pitchers. Jon’s 89 MPH cutter has been devastating, with a +2.22 run value per 100 pitches.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Jackson’s improvement from strong-armed enigma to polished pitcher has been stunning. His K/BB ratio, just 1.4 last season, is up to 3.26. His FIP (3.10) is boosted by a low HR rate (0.54 per nine innings), but his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s, and a normalized HR/FB rate) is a still-solid 4.35. Jackson has been getting it done with a 94 MPH heater (+1.42 runs per 100 pitches), an 86 MPH slider (+1.33) and the rare 85.5 MPH changeup (+0.78).

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

All of the sudden, Andy looks an awful lot like the highly-touted youngster the Pirates thought they were receiving last summer. His introduction to the ‘Burgh was turbulent, but the former Dodgers prospect is batting .301/.372/.420, with a .356 wOBA. LaRoche will likely never be a huge over-the-fence threat, but his combination of plate discipline and doubles power could prove mighty valuable to the Bucs.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

Floyd has been on a roll, with 31 K’s and 7 runs allowed in his last 29.2 innings. While Gavin’s ERA far surpassed his peripherals in 2008, it’s been the opposite story in 2009. Floyd’s ERA sits at an abominable 5.35, but his FIP is pretty good at 3.91. The 26 year-old righty has increased his strikeout rate from 6.32 to 8.03, though he hasn’t hit his spots as well (3.77 BB/9 in 2009, 3.05 in 2008).

Stock Down

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Wandy has been bushwhacked over his past three starts, coughing up 18 runs in 13.2 frames. After giving up just one round-tripper during his first 11 starts, Rodriguez was taken deep on four occasions against the Rockies on June 4th. His numbers for the year are still solid (3.15 FIP, 8.55 K/9), but his vaunted curveball was absolutely crushed against Colorado (-3.1 runs for the evening).

CC Sabathia, Yankees

A less-than-optimal CC is still better than 95% of the pitchers in the majors, but New York’s new ace hasn’t quite been himself in 2009. CC’s K rate checks in at just 6.38 per nine innings, down considerably from his 8.93 mark in 2008 and his 7.5 career average. Opposing batters aren’t fishing at Sabathia’s sliders and changeups off the plate, with a 26.1 Outside-Swing% that’s nearly 6 percent lower than in 2008. Again, he’s been pretty darned good (3.76 FIP), and if he were just about any hurler, we’d all be saying he was turning in a nice season. It’s just that we have come to expect greatness from Sabathia.

Corey Hart, Brewers

Hart’s three-year slide continues. After posting a .380 wOBA in 2007, the lanky, tattooed right fielder posted a .327 mark in 2008 and just .309 this season. Over that same time period, Hart’s ISO has plummeted from .244 in ’07 to .191 in 2008 and just .150 in 2009. Hart isn’t chasing as many pitches off the plate this season (24.8 O-Swing%, compared to 31.7% last year), but he’s also whiffing at a career-high 27.2% clip with a career-worst contact rate (71.5%; 80.6% MLB average).

Manny Parra, Brewers

Coming off of a 2008 season in which he struck out 7.86 batters per nine innings with a 4.16 FIP, Parra looked like an intriguing, covert pitcher to target. Unfortunately, his already-scattershot control has taken another step backward: after issuing 4.07 BB/9 in ’08, the 26 year-old port-sider has walked 5.43 per nine innings in 2009. Only Fausto Carmona (currently plying his trade in Rookie Ball) has a higher rate of free passes among starters.

Bengie Molina, Giants

What happens when a guy who never walks doesn’t have those base hits fall in? Just ask the eldest Molina brother. Bengie enjoyed a piping hot April (.913 OPS and a .328 BABIP), but he fell apart in May (.559 OPS, .189 BABIP) and is off the a rough start in June (.606 OPS). Molina makes plenty of contact and he has ample pop for a backstop, but batting average-dependent players can go through stretches like this. When the hits aren’t falling, there’s nothing to fall back on.

Stock Up

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

21 year-olds aren’t supposed to go all Barry Bonds on the league, but Upton now holds a scalding .329/.404/.606 line with a .434 wOBA that places ninth among major league hitters. The .329 average likely won’t persist- Upton is still whiffing frequently (27.6% of his AB’s) and his BABIP sits at .412- but I’m nitpicking. He’s working the count well (11 BB%) and beating the bejesus out of the baseball (.276 Isolated Power). Upton is dominating at the highest level, yet he’s younger than some guys who will go in the first round of this month’s amateur draft. Suffice it to say, he’s among some exclusive, rarified company.

Nelson Cruz, Rangers

Last fall, I examined Cruz’s crushing of PCL pitching and its ramifications for his career prospects. Regarding his Jake Fox-like reign of terror in the high minors and his equally impressive work in a small sample for Texas last summer, I said: “Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.”

So far, I can file that one in the “D’oh!” department. Formerly of the A’s and Brewers organizations, Cruz has translated his “Hulk Smash” act to the majors, with a .410 wOBA. His control of the strike zone isn’t impeccable, but there’s nothing wrong with drawing a free pass 9.6% of the time with a 24% strikeout rate. His ISO is nearing .300, to boot (.296). Cruz has seen fastballs just 53 percent of the time (one of the lowest rates in the bigs), but evidently he’s doing just fine against breaking stuff, thank you very much.

Even taking the cozy environs of Arlington into account, Cruz has been a stud: with 11.9 Batting Runs (park-adjusted), he ranks 13th among outfielders. Throw in 9 steals in 10 tries, and you have a guy who’s looking anything but a minor league mirage.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Pavano has been the butt of countless jokes for his fruitless Yankee tenure and propensity to turn his training room visits into an episode of House, but let’s give the man some credit. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Pavano’s FIP (3.78) is far better than his 5.29 ERA. Carl is punching out 7.14 batters per nine innings, his highest rate since 2001 with the Expos, and he holds a 29.5 Outside-Swing% (by far his highest since 2002, and five percent above the league average).

Randy Wolf, Dodgers

The Wolf-Man inked a 1-year, $5 million deal with L.A. this winter, with performance incentives based on innings pitched. With 1.2 WAR, Wolf has already provided $5.3M in value for the Dodgers. His 2.85 K/BB ratio (7.36 K/9, 2.58 BB/9) is his highest since 2001 with the Phillies. The 2.84 ERA is something of a misnomer- his FIP is 3.88- but Wolf has still been one of the best free agent signings of the off-season.

Luke Scott, Orioles

Having recovered from a bum shoulder that put him on the DL, Scott cracked 6 homers in a four-game span from May 27th to the 30th. Posting a 1.479 OPS during an abbreviated month of May, Scott now holds a blistering .445 wOBA for the season, with 11 taters in 133 PA. The O’s are an awfully interesting club, what with their collection of blue-chip talent, but contention certainly isn’t in the cards in ’09. The soon-to-be 31 year-old Scott could do wonders for an Atlanta outfield that holds a collective .291 wOBA (dead-last in the majors).

Stock Down

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis racked up five early wins despite mediocre peripherals, but things have quickly gone south for the former Dutch ace. Martis isn’t fooling much of anyone (4.06 K/9, 6th-lowest among qualified starters) and isn’t painting the corners (3.59 BB/9). The result is a 5.14 FIP. The 22 year-old is one of many Nats starters who put the ball in play often, a problem given Washington’s wretched fielding. Nationals starters rank 26th in K/9, behind a defensive unit that ranks last the in the majors in UZR/150.

Ervin Santana, Angels

No sweeping conclusions can be derived from 4 starts and 18 innings of pitching, but Santana’s return from an elbow ailment has been an unhappy one. After two passable starts against the Red Sox and Mariners, Santana was taken to the woodshed by the light-hitting White Sox (1 IP, 7 R on the 25th), and his second start against the M’s last night was also grim (5.1 IP, 8 R).

The 2009 version of Santana has not yet resembled the 2008 model that came equipped with blazing 94.4 MPH heat and a sinister 83 MPH slider. So far, his average fastball velocity sits at 90.7 MPH, with an 81 MPH breaker. Opposing batters made contact against Santana’s stuff just 77.1% of the time in ’08, but have put the bat on the ball 86.4% in ’09 (80.7% MLB average). It wouldn’t be wise to do anything rash like dropping him or trading him for 50 cents on the dollar, but Santana should probably be benched until he works through these kinks.

Willy Taveras, Reds

Taveras was surprisingly competent during the month of April, playing the leadoff-man’s game with aplomb (12.3 BB%, 12.3 K%), but the former Astro and Rockie reverted to his batting average-dependent ways in May (5.5 BB%, 16.7 K%). The result was a hollow .269/.307/.333 line after April’s .262/.351/.228 showing.

Taveras has just about the least amount of extra-base thump in the majors and he generally doesn’t work the count, so he’s an offensive liability when those singles aren’t finding holes. Unfortunately, the 27 year-old has been hitting fewer grounders as the years have gone by: 55.6% in 2006, 51.5% in ’07 and ’08, and 46.3% this season. Nothing good comes from a Taveras flyball, which makes his 35.3% flyball rate (28.6% career average) troubling. Yes, he swipes a lot of bags, but those employing Taveras as an everyday outfielder in fantasy circles lose out on production in other categories.

James Loney, Dodgers

The 25 year-old lefty continues to control the strike zone (9.5 BB%, 10.4 K%), but he’s been showing less power than Juan Castro, for goodness sakes. Loney’s ISO sits at a sickly .085, this after a disappointing 2008 showing (.145 ISO) that would look downright Herculean compared to his current mark. Loney is hitting plenty of line drives (23.5%), but he’s not getting terribly unlucky on balls put in play (.315 BABIP).

In 2009, the average first baseman is slugging .492 with a .364 OBP; Loney holds a .373 SLG% with a .351 OBP. The 6-3, 220 pounder is still relatively young, but singles hitters just aren’t that valuable at a position where power tends to rule the day.

Andy Pettitte, Yankees

Pettitte has long been an underappreciated piece of New York’s tremendous run of success, and he posted a fine 3.71 FIP in 2008. However, the 2009 version hasn’t been as productive. Yes, his ERA (4.10 in ’09) is lower than last year (4.54) and his record is better, but that’s more the product of performance on balls put in play. Pettitte had a .339 BABIP last season, compared to .299 this season. Lead-footed in the field last season (-5.4 team UZR/150, 25th in the majors), the Bombers are slightly in the black this year (+0.4 UZR/150, 14th).

In terms of things that Pettitte has more direct control over, he’s taken a step backward in 2009. His K rate, nearly seven last season, has fallen to just 4.81 (making New York’s defensive improvement all the more important for Pettitte). He has also issued 3.25 walks per nine innings, his highest mark since 2004. The result is a middling 4.86 FIP, the highest mark of his distinguished career.

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th: