Stock Watch: 6/15

Stock Up

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

During the off-season, I wondered if Hermida might be headed for a Griev(e)ous career path, as a highly-touted prospect who quickly fades. His once-acclaimed plate discipline had eroded, and his power failed to develop. Hermida offered at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2006, but that figure had climbed all the way to 27.8% by 2008 (the MLB average hovers around 25 percent). Compounding matters, his percentage of pitches swung at within the zone went down (from 64.1% in ’06 to 59.6% in ’08). For a guy with a career .398 OBP in the minors, this was an awfully strange development.

In 2009, Hermida’s beginning to reverse those trends. His outside-swing percentage is down to 23.9, and he’s taking a cut at pitches within the zone 61 percent of the time. Hermida’s walk rate is up nearly four percent (12.6 BB% in ’09, 8.7 BB% in ’08), and his wOBA sits at .355 after last year’s tepid .321. He’s still not pummeling the ball (.145 ISO), but the 25 year-old has lofted 3 dingers over the past week. Hermida might not ever develop into a full-fledged star, but he’s looking like a solid offensive cog.

Scott Baker, Twins

Fresh off a highly promising 2008 season in which he posted a 3.36 K/BB ratio and a 3.79 FIP, Baker was battered by the long ball to begin 2009. The Oklahoma State product coughed up a stunning 14 big flys over the first two months. Baker is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.5 GB%) who will give up his share of round-trippers, but he has settled down after that fireworks bonanza. The 27 year-old’s FIP is at 4.55 and dropping. His K/BB ratio is a superb 5.17, and he’s dominating hitters to the tune of a 23/2 K/BB in June.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

Reynolds’ average has little chance of remaining in the .280’s (he’s whiffing nearly 39% of the time and has a BABIP of .384), but this Arizona slugger is turning in a quality season nonetheless. His walk rate is up a tick (from 10.6% in ’08 to 11.8 this season), with an ISO increase from .219 to .294 (10th among qualified hitters). After scuffling versus same-handed pitching in 2008 (.226/.298/.409 vs. RHP), Reynolds has hung in there against righties for a .280/.358/.566 line in 2009.

The third baseman/ first baseman has seen a ton of sliders this year (26 percent), likely the result of his poor performance against the pitch last season (-1.73 runs below average per 100 pitches). In 2009, however, Reynolds is smacking the slider at a +1.29 run pace. To boot, he has also already eclipsed his SB total from last season: Reynolds has 13 swipes in 16 attempts.

Ben Zobrist, Rays

This is getting ridiculous. The switch-hitting Zobrist, a former Astros prospect acquired in the 2006 Aubrey Huff swap, posted a career .318/.428/.459 line in the minors. He owned the upper minors, but failed to hit in two trials with Tampa in 2006 (.243 wOBA in 198 PA) and 2007 (.180 wOBA in 105 PA).

Zobrist got his foot in the door last season, with a .364 wOBA (.253/.339/.505 in 227 PA). This year? He’s doing his best Mickey Mantle impression, with an absurd .460 wOBA and a .309/.424/.667 line in 198 PA. He’s walking at a Bondsian clip (16.7%), with a near .360 ISO. Among batters with at least 190 trips to the dish, Zobrist is tied with Boston’s Youkilis for the highest wOBA.

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect this to continue, but Zobrist looks like a highly valuable player anyway. The rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him posting a .282/.360/.450 line. Better yet for fantasy owners, Zobrist’s position versatility should make him eligible in the outfield, second base and possibly shortstop.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

Nolasco has endured one of the most bizarre seasons from a starter in quite some time. If you focused just on his ERA, you would assume that he was some Sidney Ponson/John Van Benschoten love child (7.62 ERA). However, his peripherals aren’t bad by any stretch: 7.94 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, good for a 4.10 FIP. Somehow, Nolasco’s BABIP sits at .399; balls put in play against him are falling for hits as if every hitter were Ty Cobb.

Some of the blame can certainly be laid at the feet of Florida’s defenders, who rank ahead of only the last-at-everything Nationals in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Fish fielders have converted balls put in play into outs 68.5 percent of the time (23rd in the majors). Even if the Florida’s pitchers have a collective .315 BABIP, Nolasco’s near .400 mark sticks out like a sore thumb.

Plenty of line drives have been hit against Nolasco (24.7%), but it’s hard to say that a guy garnering an above-average rate of swings outside of the strike zone (27.3%), with a contact rate (79%) below the league average (80.6%) has been lit up. Nolasco’s abhorrent BABIP and extremely low strand rate (54.7%) will improve moving forward, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

Stock Down

Chris Young, Padres

Has anyone seen Young’s fastball? The 6-10 Ivy Leaguer has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons: 88.7 MPH in 2007, 87.2 in ’08 and just 85.8 in ’09. That’s a problem for a flyball pitcher who likes to work high in the zone. Young has thrown his heater nearly three-quarters of the time during his career, and continues to chuck fastballs over 70 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the pitch scarcely resembles its former self.

Young’s run value on the cheese has gone from +1.26 per 100 pitches in 2007 to +0.91 in ’08 and a lousy -0.64 in 2009. His contact rate is up significantly (76.1% in ’07 to 83.2% in ’09), and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone (about 3 percent below the 48.9% MLB average this year). With below-average cheddar thrown at the letters, Young’s HR rate has soared from 0.52 per nine innings in 2007, 1.14 in ’08 and 1.42 in ’09. And that’s without an inflated HR/FB rate (just 10%), and the benefit of Petco.

Honestly, it’s hard to make the case that Young is even a league-average pitcher at this stage. Take a look at his ERA+ figures over the past three seasons (ERA+ park-adjusts a pitcher’s ERA, placing it on a scale where 100 is average, above 100 is above-average and below 100 is below-average):

2007: 129 ERA+
2008: 97 ERA+
2009: 72 ERA+

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

Galarraga was due for some regression this season (4.88 FIP in 2008, compared to a more sparkly 3.73 ERA), but he’s just been plain bad this year. His ERA sits at 5.56, with an even worse 5.93 FIP. His K rate is down to 5.68 from 2008’s 6.35, with an increase in free passes from 3.07 per nine to 4.13. Armando’s low-90’s fastball is getting roped (-2.14 runs per 100 pitches), and his mid-80’s slider/cutter (thrown 41.2% of the time) is getting crunched as well. The pitch had a +2.69 run value in ’08, but comes in at a paltry -0.08 in 2009.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies’

Rollins’ struggles have been well-documented, as the 2007 N.L. MVP has a macabre .258 wOBA. J-Roll has done more damage in the batter’s box than any other player, with a stunning -17.7 Batting Runs.

A .226 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Rollins has drawn a walk just 4.3% of the time after last year’s career-high 9.4% pace. His ISO (.112) is at the lowest point since a small cup of jobe with Philly back in 2000. Strangely, Rollins has gone from a very good fastball hitter to one of the worst over the past several seasons:

Runs/100 pitches value against fastballs, 2006-2009

2006: +1.20
2007: +0.58
2008: -0.12
2009: -2.04

Only Bengie Molina and Brian Giles have fared worse against the heat in 2009.

Daniel Murphy, Mets

While Murphy wasn’t out in left field long enough for us to derive a significant sample, the consensus seems to be that he performed about as well as a grizzly bear on roller skates. As such, Murphy (a former 2B/3B in the minors) is likely relegated to first base, where offensive expectations are exceptionally high: the average MLB first baseman is batting .276/.364/.487 in 2009. Murphy is making plenty of contact (11.6 K%) and his .248 BABIP should improve, but a .116 ISO just doesn’t get it done. He’s 24 and has time to improve, but Murphy is looking more like a Ross Gload-type at this point.

Dontrelle Willis, Tigers

Willis’ peripherals had been headed south during his last two seasons in Florida and he accumulated a ton of mileage on his arm at a young age, but the optimist and fan in me hoped that Dontrelle could find at least some semblance of his former self this season. Sadly, that does not appear to be in the cards.

The 27 year-old D-Train has a mind-bending 17/28 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings after yesterday’s 8-walk disaster in Pittsburgh. Just 42% of his offerings have been within the strike zone, making hitters understandably hesitant to swing (41 swing%, compared to the 44.8% MLB average). When batters do take the lumber off their shoulders, they’re making contact about 7 percent more than the MLB average. I really do wish Willis the best, but there’s nothing positive to say here.