As intuition would suggest, F-Strike% has a high correlation with a pitcher’s walk rate (though I can’t seem to find the article that studied the relationship). One of the obvious reasons is because a first pitch strike is a strike, so you already know the pitcher is starting with an 0-1 count. Whenever I analyze a pitcher, I like to compare his F-Strike% with his BB/9 or BB% to see if those last two numbers are sustainable. Today I look at the leaders in F-Strike%. These are the guys who should also be atop the leader boards in walk rate. This is where we search for those who may see an improved walk rate in the future.

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It’s not quite on par with Bryce Harper and Mike Trout being promoted within hours of each other in late April, but this week has seen its share of promising prospects getting the call, including a new shortstop in the A-T-L and a couple of quality arms out in Cali.

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The great thing about having a weak pitching staff, as opposed to a poor offense, is that there are always new pitchers being called up who could potentially generate some fantasy value. This is why I have always trumpeted going cheaper than everyone else on your pitching staff during your draft/auction. Let’s take a look at some of the younger guys who have

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Omar Infante is possibly having the most productive season of his career. He is currently hitting 0.321/0.352/0.532 with 6 HRs. While it may be tough for him to hit 16 HRs like he did in 2004, he is seeing a nice power spike. Have any of his core attributes changed that will help keep this break out sustainable?

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On Monday, I looked at the pitching leaders in SwStk% to see if we can expect any strikeout rate surges in the near future. Today, I will check in on the opposite end of the ledger, those pitchers whose SwStk% are at the bottom of the totem pole. Obviously, these are not the guys you want on you fantasy team. Let’s see if any of them have higher strikeout rates than you would expect and are therefore in for some regression.

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This time, let’s hit on a recently-promoted outfielder, a shortstop with a masterful mitt and a bat that could help the Giants offense.

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Last week, I looked at several American League starting pitchers off to disappointing starts and asked whether we should buy low or not. This week I am not going to do the same as the only possible argument one can make for continued success from these pitchers is their team’s defense. As such, all are strong sells as I would much prefer to bet on skill winning out that expecting elite defensive support to continue.

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Eric Hosmer has been a huge disappointment this season with a 0.174/0.243/0.316 slash line. Most of his problems stem from a 0.169 BABIP. I am going to look to see if there are any under lying problems for the drop and any possible reasons for optimism.

As I stated previously, Eric has a BABIP of 0.169. It is the lowest value of all hitters with at least 150 PA. In 2011, he was 50th out of 145 qualified hitters with a 0.314 BABIP.

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Today marks latest batch of trends in the American League outfield.

Bullish:
Mike Trout – I know that it is hard to be bullish on a kid who is as highly touted as Trout, but so far he has shown that he is as much production as we projected. His strikeout rate is a touch high, 22.7%, but he makes up for it with excellent power and speed. In just 88 plate appearances, he has four homers and 10 walks. To put that another way: he has as many walks as Albert Pujols does and Pujols has 176 PA’s this year. Trout is an absolute superstar in the making, if he isn’t already one. He is still available in 31% of Yahoo! formats somehow although ESPN leagues have been quicker to reel him in (that will be only Trout pun from me all season, I promise), as his ownership rating there is a healthy 94%. For anyone in any format in need of offense, Trout is a fantastic pickup.

Raul Ibanez – I’m surprised to say his name too. After his disaster of a 2011 season where he “hit” .245/.289/.419, he has shown that he isn’t finished just yet. Compare to last year, he has cut his strikeout rate in half to an unbelievably low 9.8% while upping his walk rate to 7.4%. I don’t expect that low strikeout rate to continue, but perhaps it is a sign of a major adjustment on his part? Just yesterday he hit his ninth home run of the year and a 25 home run season wouldn’t be shocking at this point. Given his surrounding lineup and his batting position of fifth against right handed pitching, his RBI totals should be nice shot in the arm as well. Once again we see that ESPN is quicker on the draw; his ownership rating there is 83% and it went up over 50% in the past week. Yahoo! lags behind considerably despite his LF and RF eligibility, he is only owned in 41% of leagues. Anyone in need of a solid OF bat that will play 4-5 times a week should pick up Ibanez. I know I am. Read the rest of this entry »

As I have mentioned many times in the past, SwStk% is highly correlated with strikeout rate/percentage. Of course, as with any pair of metrics, there are always going to be outliers who do not fit the general pattern. Sometimes there is an explanation not captured by the metrics we are looking at, other times it is just a matter of some version of luck that should change soon. The latter case gives us an opportunity to forecast improvement or declines. So let’s take a look at the leaders in Swstk%, matching it with their strikeout percentages to determine if there are any imminent strikeout rate surgers.

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