On Wednesday, I compared American League starting pitchers’ strikeout rates and SwStk% marks to determine who may be in line for a K/9 surge next season. Today I perform the same exercise, but for the National Leaguers. As expected, the league average is slightly better, as starters have averaged a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.
Every so often, I take a look at the SwStk% leaders and compare those marks to the pitchers’ strikeout rates. Since the two metrics are highly correlated, for obvious reasons, a high SwStk% that does not match up with a corresponding strikeout rate may suggest a surge is imminent. Here are a couple of pitchers whose Swstk% hints at strikeout rate upside for next year. Keep in mind however that SwStk% itself will vary year to year and so this assumes a similar level. For context, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.
In a special edition of the deep league waiver wire, I identify some pitchers who are widely available and have a decent matchup next week. It’s your last chance to gain ground in wins and strikeouts, though of course you must consider the potential damage to your ERA and WHIP.
After looking at Chris Carpenter’s 2012 debut yesterday, today I will look at two other pitchers that made their 2012 debuts this past week, Jake Odorizzi and Jorge de la Rosa
Chris Carpenter debuted on Friday night. He came away with decent results, 5 IP, 2 Runs allowed, 0 HR. Chris is usually a fantasy workhorse, but shoulder surgery has all but eliminated his 2012 season. He looks to have limited value as a streaming option this next week and has some question marks to be answered for 2013.
The big red flag that is waving over him is the drop in velocity for all his pitches. His sinker, which he threw 31 times, is down about 3 MPH from 2010 and 2011.
Research has shown that hitters have much more control of their BABIP marks than pitchers. As a result, true talent BABIP remains pretty stable, but does decline as a hitter ages. Looking at the leaders and laggards each year in the metric is a quick shortcut to figure out whose batting averages may decline or increase the following year. However, since these hitters may actually have a true talent level close to these levels, it might not give us the correct answer. We can instead compare a hitter’s BABIP to his previous year since hitters generally establish a baseline BABIP that they vary around each season. This is another method to help identify those who are in for a drop or jump in average. Today I’ll check in on the BABIP surgers compared to 2011. I used a minimum of 400 plate appearances last year and the “qualified” filter for this year. I have also included each hitter’s xBABIP in their respective write-ups.
On Monday, I took a look at the five pitchers whose ERAs are most below their respective SIERA marks. Today, I check in on the opposite side of the ledger, those pitchers whose ERAs are most above their SIERAs. These are the pitchers that SIERA would classify as the unluckiest, and might be undervalued in next year’s drafts.
As we head into the final weeks of the season, it’s nearly time to get a jump on next year’s research. One of the first exercises worth performing is comparing a pitcher’s actual ERA with his SIERA. While in some cases there are legitimate explanations for over or underperformance of SIERA marks, for the most part, you should treat SIERA as your baseline for your next season ERA projection, rather than actual ERA. Here are the five pitchers who have outperformed their SIERA marks the most this season.
In September, teams are able to bring up any player to the majors that is on the 40 man roster. When a player gets hurt, a team has no incentive to put the player on the DL to open up a spot. Because teams are ignoring the DL, it is hard knowing exactly which players are not going to play and for how long.
The most important aspect that fantasy owners face is that the non-playing, hurt players can’t be moved to a DL slot without the DL designation. Teams in keeper leagues will be forced to keep these players on their active roster therefore denying an extra usable bench player on a fantasy roster.
On Saturday, I checked in on some surprising HR/FB ratio surgers and attempted to determine what we can expect from these hitters next season. Today I’ll look at the opposite end, those hitters whose HR/FB ratio have experienced a large decline. Will they be bargains in next year’s drafts or money traps?
