Fantasy owners are heavily influenced by the forces of recency bias. A hitter is in the midst of a hot streak, having hit .400 over the last week with a pair of long balls? Pick him up! Unfortunately, we know that such streaks have limited, if any, predictive value, resulting in this strategy usually being a losing one. But that’s not always the case, as a hot streak could lead to increased playing time and we’re always chasing at-bats (and innings pitched). So let’s take a gander at which players have been added the most in CBS leagues over the last week and determine whether picking them up is a good move. Obviously, context plays a huge role in decisions like these, but since we have no such information, we’ll do our best.

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It’s no secret that I loved Carlos Carrasco heading into the 2014 season. His spectacular performance over his final 10 starts last year vaulted him into the not actually a sleeper sleeper territory during this year’s draft season. By this I mean that he was hyped as a sleeper by just about everyone, but that meant that everyone who paid attention knew how awesome and legit he was and bid him up to or drafted him at fair value. But his first eight starts of this year have not gone the way we all expected. His ERA sits at a disappointing 4.98 and he has averaged just about 5.4 innings per start.

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I have essentially stripped the terms “buy low” and “sell high” from my vocabulary, so I now prefer to call the former buy low guys acquisition targets. One would think that offering for a player off to a slow start would have to come at some sort of discount, even if a minor one. And since slow starts are usually just that and have little predictive value for the rest of the season, getting anyone at a discount to his pre-season value should yield a nice profit.

As usual, the easiest way to identify your targets is to calculate the difference between a pitcher’s ERA and SIERA and then sort. Those pitchers with SIERA marks most below their ERAs are typically your targets, though that’s not automatically the case. Often times a pitcher could be carrying an ERA over 7.00, but still sporting a 4.50 SIERA. Sure, he’s been unlucky, but he also hasn’t been very good either! So you still don’t want him on your team.

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We’re not a month into the season, so it’s finally time to start putting the hitter batted ball distance leaderboard to work. Back in late January, I unveiled my xHR/FB rate equation, which included three components, batted ball distance being one of them. Unfortunately, I don’t have the data for angle and standard deviation, so I cannot calculate xHR/FB rate marks yet and share the biggest discrepancies. However, simply looking at batted ball distance could do a reasonably decent job at identifying those who might be in for a HR/FB rate surge or decline. We’ll start with the potential surgers. These are the hitters whose distance is top notch, but for whatever reason, have posted mediocre or poor HR/FB rates.

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The buy low and sell high strategy has been a favorite one of fantasy leaguers for as long as fantasy sports has existed, I would imagine. Unfortunately, it’s nearly dead given the wealth of freely available information and the deeper knowledge we now possess about how to evaluate player performance. Nearly dead, not completely dead. To buy low or sell high on a player, you need a story, a narrative that essentially offers up confirmation bias and makes the owner you’re dealing with feel all fuzzy inside when agreeing to the trade.

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Fastball velocity has seemingly received increasingly greater attention over the past couple of years. Perhaps it’s because it just keeps rising. A quick Google search yielded this interesting article detailing recent trends and confirming that average fastball velocity has risen every year since 2008. For us fantasy owners, velocity is important because a spike is often the precursor to a breakout. So let’s talk about a couple of pitchers and what we have seen from their velocity in the early going. These guys have all started just one game, which is as small a sample size as ever. But, velocity stabilizes very quickly, so it’s still worthwhile to discuss.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Pieces:
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Indians and Tigers
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: White Sox, Royals, Twins
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Angels and A’s
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Astros, Angels, Mariners

A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Braves and Phillies
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Marlins, Mets, Nationals

A Minor Review of 2014: Reds

The Graduate: Billy Hamilton, OF: There is no denying that Hamilton is an exciting player thanks to his top-of-the-scale speed. However, from an offensive standpoint, the shortstop-turned-center-fielder had a modest year in the Majors. A .292 on-base percentage only takes away from Hamilton’s greatest asset (his base running) and he doesn’t make enough consistent contact (117 strikeouts in 152 games). He’s intriguing, but he still has a long way to go to become a key player for the Reds.

The Riser: Ben Lively, RHP: The enigmatic and deceptive Lively had a grand year in the minors, going from 2013 fourth-round prospect to a Double-A hurler in 2014. Despite his average stuff, the right-hander allowed just 117 hits and struck out 171 batters in 151.0 innings. If he keeps this up, he could reach The Show in the second half of 2015.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Pieces: A Minor Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles

The Graduate: Mookie Betts, IF/OF: Fellow rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. — who won the opening day center-field gig — stumbled at the worst possible time. That misstep allowed Betts to weasel his way into the role and — if his 2014 results are indicative of his future potential — he’s not going to be giving it up any time soon. His pop has been a pleasant surprise.

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Welcome to the annual series called: ‘A Minor Review of 20__” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball managers in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Shane Greene, RHP: Greene is proof that scouting is not an exact science. The right-hander flew under the radar for five minor league seasons due to inconsistent results. His stuff took a step forward in 2014 and he could be in the Yankees’ starting rotation for years to come thanks to his combination of velocity, movement and sink on his offerings.

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Just a couple of pitchers this week. Between an extended Labor Day weekend and a computer crash, I could only view two guys.

Kyle Hendricks

Why I watched: A rookie with a 1.91 ERA who doesn’t throw over 90 mph

Game Watched: 8/29 vs Cardinals

Game Thoughts
• Man he throws slow. He has one huge set of balls to keep throwing his fastball in their, which he does with confidence. His sinker was 86-87 in the game I watched. He just isn’t going to strikeout many batters as seen by his 15% K%.

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