On Tuesday, I shared the names of the eight starting pitchers who had seen their fastball velocities rise most versus 2020. Obviously, not every starting pitcher had made their first start yet, so let’s dive into the velocity gainers once more. I’ll exclude the names I discussed the first time, so this is an entirely new list of pitchers.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the starting pitchers whose fastball velocities have increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020 during their first starts. This is an early indicator of a breakout, though it requires this new higher velocity level to be sustained. Let’s now move to the fastball velocity decliners. Just like the surgers might not sustain those gains all season, don’t panic just yet about these decliners. Velocity does bounce around from start to start and early in the season, it’s possible these pitchers are still building up their arm strength. However, these are big holes to climb out of, so these could be early signs of a disappointing year.
Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. My first five-figure tournament score came on a night where Collin McHugh scored negative points, I think–or maybe it was, like, six points. Extremely flukey, as I made the big money because Justin Turner hit three HRs for me at nearly no ownership. I’m not saying to put pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching.
The pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,”so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players to win tournaments. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
Read the rest of this entry »
There’s not a whole lot that we could evaluate after just one pitcher start. However, one of the few things we could analyze and take action on is fastball velocity. Typically pitchers see their average fastball velocity gradually increase as the season progresses, so it’s completely normal if a pitcher is down a tick from last year, as you figure it will improve moving forward. On the other hand, since average fastball velocity immediately means something, it’s worth noting when a pitcher is already enjoying a significant bump. So let’s take a look at all the starters whose average fastball velocity in their first start has increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020.
Baseball is happening! Watching baseball again is quite possibly the best feeling in the world. Better than getting married and I can say that because my wife doesn’t read any of my stuff…. can’t say I blame her. I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
Yesterday, I compared starting pitcher spring training strikeout rates to Steamer projected strikeout rates to assemble a list of pitchers with potential strikeout rate upside this season. Today, let’s do the same with walk rate.
Pitching can be the spot of our lineups where we experience the lowest degree of variance in a sport full of volatility. We’re not going to explore how to minimize variance, but how to make the best plays tailored for our lineups to fit the contests we’re playing using projections and leverage.
A lot of things factor into a pitcher scoring fantasy points via strikeouts, innings, and run prevention. A pitcher’s skill is pretty important, but what’s the best way to gauge a pitcher’s skill? The answer is mostly through the predictive analytics of their past performance, which ought to be distinguished from the descriptive analytics.
Projection
We get fantasy points for outs, Ks, and Ws (on FD, we also get the points for the QS); it’s that simple. We lose points for ER on both sites, baserunners on DK. Keep it simple. Find a predictive run prevention metric between xERA, FIP, xFIP, or SIERA. Decide between the per-nine rates or per-100 batter-faced stats like K/9 versus K%. I prefer xERA, based on the Statcast numbers, or SIERA, as they isolate that over which the pitcher has the most control. I prefer K/9 because K% can double-count for events already recognized in the run preventers, as we’re really just looking to project Ks with that metric.
We know by now that spring training stats are almost completely meaningless. So stop looking at batting averages and ERAs and using those marks to drive draft day decisions! However, there are some metrics that do matter, pitcher strikeout and walk rates, which I discovered from a study I had conducted. So it follows that pitchers who posted significantly higher strikeout rates and/or significantly lower walk rates, and vice versa, than projected should get slight bumps (or the opposite) in their season projections.
This weekend is the last big push of drafts so it’s time for one final update of my SP ranks. Lots of movement as it’s time to lock in and put together our rotations.
The blue bar represents the START of a new tier. Yes, deGrom is his own tier.
You can also get up to the minute rankings of every position on our Patreon.
UPDATE(S):
On Monday, I shared the names of eight pitchers whose Pod Projected ERA is significantly lower than Steamer. Today, let’s flip to the ERA downside names. Remember that in aggregate, Pod ERA projections are lower than Steamer, so the gap between ERA forecasts below are a lot smaller than on the upside list. Since it’s really relative projections and calculated dollar values that matter (we care how the projections compare to the player pool, not whether the pitcher is projected for a 3.00 ERA vs a 14.00 ERA), try to ignore the small degree Pod’s ERA is higher than Steamer and remember these are the largest outliers, so if put on the same ERA scale, the difference would be greater.