As I sat and wandered the databases, the thoughts running through my head were the same being pondered by every other reasonable baseball fan. Is there a bookcase in Rob Manfred’s office that if you pull on the correct book will spin around to reveal a panel of giant levers that controls which baseballs are currently being used? And if so, will “waterlogged” stay pulled, or could it be flipped to “happy fun ball” at any given moment? If that’s the case, we might as well prepare by looking at the pitches getting the most air so far in 2022. Read the rest of this entry »

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Pricing differs at the top of the pitching chain today across the sites. The gut reaction is to grab the cheaper options, but that isn’t always the correct option. The field likes to gravitate to the cheaper option. When we go along with the field on a pitching choice, we have to differentiate with our hitters. Don’t certain price points lock you into a chalky build.

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Nestor Cortes announced himself to much of the baseball fandom last week, striking out 12 Orioles over five shutout innings while allowing just three hits and walking one in an eventual no-decision. But Baltimore, all the haters cried. Everyone knows you only get 50% credit for games against the O’s! Read the rest of this entry »

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

This early main slate is a really difficult one to not play chalk pitching. There are five guys with double-digit per-nine strikeout stuff, but three have really samples and two of them are in bad strikeout parks. I’m nitpicking here because the two SP1s are just so obvious that excluding Joe Ryan in a bad strikeout matchup, Tyler Wells and his awful command, and Tanner Houck and his awful matchup feels pretty easy.

EDIT — The cheap Wells is rising on my list because no one is going to play him. I predicted he’d be in the 20-25% ownership range because of the strikeouts and the great matchup, but he could go single digits. He’s become a poor man’s Cease on this slate.

THE SP1s: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease

Kevin Gausman is the clear ace of the slate. His SIERA since 2021 is the lowest on the slate and his strikeout matchup is sneaky strong. The Red Sox active roster only has a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2020 and their strikeout rate has gone up to 23.5%. Add in his 10.70 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, and 0.89 HR/9 with his ridiculously cheap salary on DK and we’re losing money by not going overweight on him. Sometimes chalk is underowned, too, and Gausman is one of those spots today.

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Over the last few days, I have shared the wacky rates hitters have posted over the small sample early season so far. Let’s now jump to starting pitchers. A total of 27 starters have made three starts so far, while the rest of the qualified are sitting on two. So these rates are not very meaningful, but are certainly fun to look at.

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The season has begun and we are back with Throwing Heat! For those who didn’t read these articles last season, this is a weekly article that focuses on pitchers who are pitching well. When we are further into the season it will be based on a pitcher’s previous three starts but for now, it will just be their most recent starts.

The beauty of this article is how it highlights all types of pitchers from the best in the league to pitchers who are barely rostered. If someone is on a hot streak they will be in this article. I will also tell you if the hot streak is legit or if it appears to be a facade. I hope you enjoy it!

Andrew Heaney, LAD

Last two starts: 10.1 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, and a 13.94 K/9

To dive a little deeper into these first two starts Heaney has a 1.16 FIP, 32.5 K-BB%, and a 20.5 SwStr%. Small samples are fun! Heaney was touted by many this offseason for his underlying potential. Something many have thought for years now. So is it finally coming to fruition?

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Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Speaking of lineups, we’re gonna approach this with Coors Field in mind, considering there’s a terribly high-contact pitcher on the mound for Colorado and an erratic pitcher on the mound for Philadelphia. We have to remember that we can’t play chalk pitching with Coors stacks. When stacking Coors teams, we have to find leverage elsewhere.

THE SP1s: Corbin Brunes, Robbie Ray, and Joe Musgrove

Walker Buehler and Framber Valez are strong pitchers, but both have bad matchups on top of weaker K/9, compared to the three we’ll discuss.

Corbin Burnes is at the top of the list. His SIERA is the only one on the slate under 3.00 with the only K/9 over 12.00 and the only HR/9 under 0.75 since 2021, with elite command. And the Pirates are atrocious. Burnes is probably underpriced on both sites.

Robbie Ray is about adequately priced. He’s shown some command issues thus far this season, but we shouldn’t put too much into a couple of outings. We should believe in the bust out we saw last season, where he dramatically lowered his BB/9 and HR/9, while still carrying a high K/9. He draws an unspectacular Rangers team, whose active roster has a 24.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since 2021.

Joe Musgrove has seen his strikeouts, walks, and power prevention swing in the wrong direction since the late-June enhanced enforcement of banned substances. But his numbers since June 30 are still fine: 9.41 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9 on a 3.94 SIERA. Add that the Reds are a no-hitter waiting to happen and fine is, well, fine.

Musgrove’s dramatically more expensive at FD, but the ownership is dramatically lower there. If we can jam in the Coors bats with his hefty price tag at FD, that’s our move. If Otherwise, he’s not really playable with Coors. Sure, the cheap price tag makes it easier to play him with Coors at DK, but everyone sees that same dynamic. Early ownership projections are showing that everyone is seeing Burnes and Ray as much stronger options than Buehler and Valdez, leading me the conclusion that we play Musgrove, Buehler, or Valdez at FD or Buehler and/or Valdez at DK with Coors.

Where we fade Coors, we should be playing Burnes, Ray, or Musgrove. The second we pull that trigger of not playing Coors is the second where we kinda’ don’t have to give a crap about ownership.

THE CHEAP SP2s: Cole Irvin and Chris Archer

Cole Irvin is projected better than Buehler and Valdez, according to THE BAT. The ballpark in Oakland is sexy for run prevention. It’s bad for strikeouts, but Irvin is so cheap that the strikeouts are cherries, not the sundae. Not to mention, the Orioles’ active roster has a 24.9% strikeout rate against left-handers since 2020.

Irvin’s 2.04 BB/9 displays great command and his 1.28 HR/9 is good enough power prevention facing an average bunch of hitters who strike out a ton.

With the field looking for paths toward jamming in two of Burnes, Ray, and Musgrove, Irvin is projecting to gather almost no ownership. But the day is early. He’s projecting so well in terms of performance that the ownership should follow. But, hey, there’s nothing sexy about playing Cole Irvin.

On one hand, there’s nothing on the Fangraphs page of Chris Archer that tells us to play him. But he is free and projected by THE BAT to throw in the 80-pitch range, along with the terrible Royals as his opponent. His 95-96-mph fastball now sits in the 93-94 range and he did go four innings without walking anyone in his first start. The Royals don’t strike out much, on one hand; but they could also be quick outs that get Archer in the direction of six innings. Not putting six innings on the table here; just saying that we could get into the fifth against a high-contact bunch.

Historically, Archer was a fireballer until he got hurt and, then, he got ever more hurt even worse. We don’t really know what he is. But we’re presuming he isn’t and and that’s enough for this price tag against this opponent.

On a personal note: recent months have been overwhelmingly trying for my family and I want to express my deepest gratitude for all of the well wishes and support.

If a lifetime of watching baseball has taught me anything, it’s that you only need about a week to predict how the rest of the season will go. It’s science. Read the rest of this entry »

Using my Pitch Leaderboard, I identified every “new” pitch* thrown during MLB’s glorious first weekend. Then, using my Pitch Comps tool, which uses pitch specs (like velocity, spin rate, movement, and release points) to compare pitches to one another, I wanted to see if I could make any quantifiable declarations about the quality of these pitches in small samples. I can’t write about everyone, so I’ll select the most interesting ones (in my humble opinion).

(*Including existing pitches from rookies for whom we now finally have MLB statcast data as well as existing pitches thrown by players who missed all of 2021 due to injury. It will be interesting to see if the latter group looks measurably different post-injury than they did pre-injury.)

At the end of the season, I’ll revisit to find out these comps were actually indicative (i.e., “predictive,” in a sense) of quality, but it’s also strongly possible the comps will change as samples grow. This is very experimental, but it’s something I’ve wanted to try in the past but hadn’t found the motivation to do.

Why pitch comps? I know I am prone to bias watching a handful of pitches from a pitcher. I can’t scout because I can deceive myself into just about any conclusion (and I think the same can be said for most of us, whether we like it or not).

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Earlier this week, I shared and discussed starting pitcher velocity gainers on Monday and Tuesday, and then relievers yesterday. Now let’s flip to the fastball velocity decliners. My level of concern for the pitchers on this list, and for those who missed the cut but have also suffered declines, is lower than my excitement for the velocity gainers. Given the abbreviated spring training, it’s understandable if some pitchers are still building up their arm strength, and we’ll see their velocities gradually rise closer to what we expected. Surprisingly however, leaguewide velocity is actually up! During the same date range of Apr 7 – Apr 12, 2022 fastball (four-seam, two-seam, sinker) velocity is actually up from 93.4 MPH in 2021 to 93.6 MPH in 2022. So it’s hard to use the blanket short spring training as an explanation, but I’m sure every pitcher is affected differently. Bottom line is while this group is certainly worth monitoring and a trip to the IL with an injury shared could certainly be announced, I wouldn’t panic just yet.

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