Archive for Starting Pitchers

One of the biggest surprises of the 2008 season was Edinson Volquez, a pitcher with a ton of potential but one who had gone 3-11 in three previous cups of coffee in the majors. Volquez finished second in the National League in strikeouts (206), third in wins (17) and eighth in ERA (3.21). But a second half fade calls into question his prospects for 2009 and beyond.

After the All-Star break, Volquez had a 4.60 ERA and he allowed nine home runs in 78.1 innings, compared to five homers in 117.2 innings in the season’s first half. For the season, his FB% was 34.1 percent but as we can see from the graph below he allowed many, many more fly balls (the blue line of the chart) after the break in 2008.

Volquez is simply going to give up more fly balls and more homers than he did a season ago. And given that he plays his home games in Great American Ball Park, that’s a bad thing. In the last three years, 56 percent of the home runs hit in games played by the Reds happened at GABP. Volquez gave up just five home runs there in 2008, a mark he’s certain to exceed this season.

With plus pitches with both his fastball and his changeup, Volquez will post excellent strikeout numbers in 2009, but it is unrealistic to expect him to duplicate either his win total or his ERA from a season ago. Last year he had 18 outings in which he gave up two runs or less. Volquez will be lucky to reach half that total in 2009. He is still a solid bet for double-digit wins but his ERA should be closer to 4.00 this year. So, instead of a top-15 starter, Volquez is more likely top 30 in 2009.

The New York Mets are set at the front of the rotation with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. However, with Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez both eligible for free agency, two other spots in the starting five may be up for grabs. Sure, the team from Queens could elect to fill one or both of those slots with splashy free agent or trade acquisitions, but the club could also take a long look at left-hander Jonathon Niese. A 7th-round selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft out of Defiance, Ohio (the same high school that produced Dodgers stud Chad Billingsley), Niese has steadily climbed the minor league ladder and reached New York for a brief cup of coffee last September. Though not overpowering, the 6-4, 215 pounder could prove to be a nice low-cost addition to the back end of the rotation.

Niese got his professional career off to a good start in a brief 24.2 inning stint with the GCL Mets (Rookie League) in the summer of 2005, striking out 24 batters and walking ten. The man the Mets pried away from a University of Cincinnati scholarship was ranked as the 9th-best prospect in the system by Baseball America following the season.

In 2006, Niese would be bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League, tossing 123.2 innings with Hagerstown. He posted a 3.52 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), striking out an impressive 9.61 batters per nine innings but also posting a hefty 4.51 BB/9. Still, the combination of K’s and groundballs (51.4 GB%) made for a solid debut for a teenager in a full-season league. Niese was bumped up to St. Lucie of the Florida State League (High-A) at the end of the year, tossing 10 frames with a 10/5 K/BB ratio. Following the season, BA would bump Niese up to the 7th-best prospect in the Mets system, noting the potential of his “big, looping 68-70 MPH curveball” but also mentioning that he can “get overcompetitive and try to strike everyone out.”

Niese would spend the entire 2007 campaign at St. Lucie, posting a 3.28 FIP in 134.1 IP. His strikeout rate dipped (7.37 K/9), but he sharpened his control by a considerable amount (2.08 BB), shedding almost two and a half walks per nine innings and compiling a 3.55 K/BB. Niese also continued to burn worms, generating groundballs at a 50.4% clip. Heading into 2008, BA listed Niese as the 8th-best farmhand for the Mets, noting that his curve had now become a “plus” offering and that he had “figured out how to throw his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball.” However, his fastball velocity and stamina were still something of an issue: he sat “91-92 MPH early in games”, but that figure tailed off toward the middle innings.

In 2008, Niese would pass through the Eastern and International Leagues before getting a quick glimpse of the majors at the end of the season. In 124.1 IP for Binghamton (AA), Niese compiled a 3.03 FIP ERA. He whiffed 7.26 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.18 BB/9. His sinking fastball continued to keep his infield D busy, with a 52 GB%. Niese was promoted to AAA New Orleans in the second half, where he would post a 4.11 FIP ERA and a 32/14 K/BB ratio in 39.2 innings. In dire need of starting pitching down the stretch, the Mets promoted Niese to the big leagues, where he made three September starts. He posted an 11/8 K/BB ratio in 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA.

Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.

Wait! Don’t run! Before Zito lost several ticks on his fastball and became one of the most infamous free agent signings in major league history, he was a useful (if overhyped) mid-rotation starter for the A’s. Niese could enjoy a similar career arch, minus the unwarranted hardware and nine-figure contract.

Josh Beckett was essentially the same pitcher in 2008 that he was in 2007.

His walks, strikeouts, and homers were essentially exactly the same:

Beyond that, the percentage of balls and strikes he threw, as well as the percentage of swinging strikes he induced and pitches that were put in play were exactly the same:

And yet, Beckett’s ERA was 4.03 in 2008 and 3.27 in 2007. What gives?

Well, the first thing we can point to is that Beckett’s BABIP was .327 in 2008. Interestingly, it was above-average in 2007 as well, at .316. However, there’s no reason to think that this is anything except two straight seasons of bad luck – the Red Sox had fantastic defenses during both of these seasons, and Beckett’s career BABIP is .301. There’s no reason to think that Beckett will post a higher-than-usual BABIP in 2009. Still, this doesn’t explain Beckett’s higher ERA in 08 than 07.

Beckett stranded slightly less in 08 (71.3%) than he did in 07 (75.2%), but this wasn’t a huge change. He did allow a higher opponent’s OPS with runners in scoring position in 08 than 07 – in 08 it was .639, while in 07 it was .550.

In fact, with RISP in 2008, Beckett walked hitters at twice the rate that he did in 07. Beckett also allowed more extra base hits with runners in scoring position in 08 than he did in 07. However, he still struck batters out at the same rate in every situation in both years.

Beckett’s biggest problem in 2008 (as well as 2007, although to a lesser extent) was his home ballpark. Beckett posted a 5.65 ERA at home in 2008, compared to a 2.85 ERA on the road. In 2007, his home ERA was 4.17, and his road ERA was 2.18. Indeed, Fenway is a hitter’s park, and Beckett’s struggles at home shouldn’t be ignored by fantasy owners. However, Beckett is still such a good pitcher that it’s unlikely that his ERA will be over 5 at home once again. That said, Beckett has shown to be a much better fantasy bet in games outside of Fenway Park.

In short, Josh Beckett’s fundamental ability to pitch seems not to have changed, at all, from 2007 to 2008. He had approximately the same amount of walks and same amount of strikeouts. He threw the same percentage of balls and induced the same percentage of swinging strikes. He threw his fastball at the same speed, and didn’t alter his repertoire noticeably.

Rather, the main changes were in areas that were out of Beckett’s control. His BABIP was higher in 08; his LOB% was lower in 08; he allowed a great proportion of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. There’s no reason to think that these things are anything but random variation, given that ALL of Beckett’s underlying fundamentals didn’t change.

What does this mean for 2009? Well, assuming Beckett once again pitches as he did in 2007 and 2008, his ERA is very likely to decrease. The Red Sox will once again have an excellent defense, and it’s likely that Beckett’s BABIP will regress, after having been well-above-average during both 2007 and 2008. Beckett’s FIP during the last two years was 3.08 and 3.24, respectively; there’s no reason to think that Beckett cannot post an ERA under 3.50 – and perhaps even under 3.30 – in 2009.

Beckett may struggle in Fenway, and you might consider benching him against tougher opponents at home. However, his home ERA probably won’t be over 5 again, and he’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate outside of Fenway. His low ERA, coupled with over eight strikeouts per nine innings, less than two walks per nine, as well as one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, makes Josh Beckett a true fantasy ace.

Regardless of what happens from this point forward, free agent Pedro Martinez will be known as one of the very best pitchers in the history of the game. A string-bean righty who was seen as too small to hold up under a starter’s workload while with the Dodgers in the early ’90’s, Martinez nonetheless established himself as a force, pitching very well for the Expos before reaching another level following a trade to the Red Sox. Pedro’s run from 1999-2003 will forever live in pitching folklore:

Pedro Martinez, 1999-2003:

1999: 213. IP, 1.39 FIP ERA, 13.2 K/9, 1.56 BB/9
2000: 217 IP, 2.16 FIP ERA, 11.78 K/9, 1.33 BB/9
2001: 116.2 IP, 1.60 FIP ERA, 12.58 K/9, 1.93 BB/9
2002: 199.1 IP, 2.24 FIP ERA, 10.79 K/9, 1.81 BB/9
2003: 186.2 IP, 2.21 FIP ERA, 9.93 K/9, 2.27 BB/9

However, that superhuman version of Martinez has long since left the building. The last time Pedro posted a FIP ERA under four was in 2005, his first season with the Mets. His 2007 season was spent rehabbing from a torn rotator cuff, and he missed a good portion of the ’08 campaign with a hamstring injury. In 109 innings, Martinez finished with a 5.18 FIP ERA, striking out 7.18 batters per nine innings and issuing an uncharacteristic 3.63 BB/9. A fly ball pitcher (41 GB%), Pedro was burned badly by the long ball (1.57 HR/9).

So, is there hope for a rebound? Martinez’s 5.18 FIP ERA might be overstating his decline somewhat. FIP ERA is a useful stat, but it does not “normalize” home run/fly ball rates. HR/FB rates for pitchers tend to stabilize at 11-12%, but Martinez posted a whopping 15.6 HR/FB rate. If we instead use Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), which uses a pitcher’s K and BB rates but also uses an average HR/FB rate (thus rooting out Pedro’s poor luck in that category), we find that he came in at 4.61.

Accounting for his poor luck on fly balls, Martinez was basically a league-average pitcher. But what is he throwing these days? To get a feel for Pedro’s stuff, let’s take a look at his pitch F/X data from Josh Kalk’s blog.

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Fastball: -6.13 X, 7.25 Z
Sinker: -8.59 X, 3.83 Z
Curveball: 7.05 X, -5.57 Z
Slider: 0.93 X, 4.04 Z
Changeup: -9.1 X, 1.21 Z

Pedro’s fastball still retains a good deal of tailing action in on right-handed hitters, while his sinker has even more pronounced running and dropping action. While Fangraphs’ pitch data shows that Martinez’s 87.7 MPH fastball velocity was his highest since 2005, we’re still talking about a pitch with little margin for error. His slider/cutter too often caught the middle of the plate, but he still has two knock-out pitches in his low-70’s curveball and his mid-70’s changeup. Pedro’s curve is a sweepy offering, with a ton of horizontal break (7.05X) and a good deal of “dropping” action (-5.57 Z). The pitch essentially has the horizontal break of a slider and the vertical drop of a curve. His change, meanwhile, fades away from lefties (-9.1X) and “pulls the string” with a 6 inch difference in vertical movement between the fastball and the changeup.

A rebound for Pedro Martinez in 2009 entails two things: 1.) a decreased walk rate- finesse pitchers can’t walk over three and a half batters per nine- and 2.) an even more pronounced ability to pitch backwards, picking his spots with the fastball but relying heavily upon his big-breaking curve and fading changeup.

Call me crazy, but I’m not quite ready to stick a fork in Pedro yet. Yes, he’s 37 and injury-prone, but I get some Mike Mussina-type vibes from this situation. In 2007, Mussina endured a pretty rough campaign by his standards (4.58 XFIP) as he came to grips with his decreased velocity. But, with a deep repertoire of secondary offerings, he was able to rebound big-time in 2008. Of course, that’s the wildly optimistic scenario for Martinez- cases like Mussina’s are the exception to the rule, and Moose walked virtually no one (1.39 BB/9). But perhaps in the right ballpark, Martinez can become Moose-lite and turn in another above-average season.

Just like today’s other Trade Fallout subject, Carlos Gonzalez, Gregory Smith has also been involved in two high-profile trades over the past two off seasons. Popped in the 6th round out of LSU in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Smith was viewed as being a polished college lefty with relatively modest upside. At draft time, Baseball America noted that “While he has the repertoire, command and delivery to succeed as a pro starter, some scouts wonder if he might be more useful coming out of the bullpen.” As a starter, Smith’s fastball sat in the high-80’s, while he managed to touch the low-90’s out of the ‘pen.

In the summer of 2005, Smith got his professional career off to a decent start at Rookie-Level Missoula of the Pioneer League. Smith did exactly what one would expect an experienced SEC starter to do in rookie ball: in 82.1 IP, he whiffed 10.93 batters per nine innings while issuing just 1.97BB/9. Despite the excellent peripherals, he posted a 4.16 ERA. However, that was the result of a .316 BABIP.

In 2006, Smith would be tested by the unforgiving environs of Lancaster in the California League, a hitter’s paradise notorious for its wind gusts and box scores that might be mistaken for football games. Smith tamed the harsh conditions for the most part, posting a 3.22 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). He struck out 7.23 per nine innings while issuing 3.16 BB/9. He did benefit from an incredibly low .233 BABIP. BABIP tends to hover around .300 for starters in the majors, but in the low minors (with a lesser degree of defensive skill) it’s not that uncommon to see significantly higher rates. Miraculously, he also surrendered just 3 home runs in 88.1 IP, or 0.31 per nine innings. He did so in part by killing plenty of worms, generating ground balls at a 54.5% clip. Smith earned a mid-season promotion to AA Mobile of the Southern League. Facing a higher level of competition, Smith’s peripherals eroded somewhat. He posted a 4.15 FIP ERA in 60 IP, with 5.7 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9. His groundball tendencies seemed to disappear as well (35.2 GB%).

Smith would return to Mobile to begin the 2007 season, with much improved results. In 69.2 frames, he managed a 3.42 FIP ERA, whiffing 8.01 batters per nine innings while allowing 1.81 BB/9. Smith would remain fly ball-oriented, with a 43.5 GB%. He was bumped up to AAA Tucson of the Pacific Coast League at mid-season, where he posted a 3.93 FIP ERA in 52.1 IP. Smith’s K rate fell to a modest 5.85 per nine innings, and his walk rate was an average 3.1 per nine.

Following the trade to Oakland, Smith got the opportunity to step into the big league rotation, posting a 4.16 ERA in 190.1 IP. While that looks like a pretty good debut superficially, his peripherals point to a good deal of regression in 2009. His FIP ERA was 4.82, the result of a mediocre K rate (5.25/9) and ordinary control (4.11 BB/9). Smith also benefitted from a very low .258 BABIP, courtesy of good luck, a friendly home ballpark and slick glove work behind him (the A’s ranked fourth in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which measures the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs).

Earlier this year, I took an in-depth look at Smith’s repertoire using the pitch F/X system. The bottom line: while Smith has a number of pitches at his disposal and he gets a good deal of movement on them, he’s performing a tightrope act with a very modest fastball. His heater averaged just 87.6 MPH in 2008. He also utilizes a mid-70’s curve, an 82 MPH slider and an 80 MPH changeup. It will be interesting to see how effective Smith’s curve and slider are at Coors’ high altitude; we’ve been hearing for years about how hard it is to throw a curve in Colorado, and studies indicate that the lower air density does impact the trajectory of the ball in a significant way.

Suffice it to say, Smith’s new home does not suit him well. He has established himself as a fly ball-oriented hurler (34.2 GB% in ’08), and is headed from a ballpark that features spacious foul territory and homer-suppressing tendencies….

McAfee Coliseum Run and HR Park Factors, 2006-2008

2006: Runs (0.921) HR(0.852)
2007: Runs (0.833) HR (0.786)
2008: Runs (0.916) HR (0.988)

….to a much less forgiving domain:

Coors Field Run and HR Park Factors, 2006-2008

2006: Runs (1.149) HR (1.167)
2007: Runs (1.160) HR (1.218)
2008: Runs (1.126) HR (1.299)

Smith benefitted from a below-average HR/FB rate in 2008 (7.9%), a number that figured to regress toward the 11-12% average anyway. With the move to Coors, his 0.99 HR/9 rate could balloon.

So, Greg Smith is a moderate-strikeout, moderate-walk, fly ball hurler headed to a ballpark known for giving pitchers nightmares. Add in the likelihood that his breaking balls will be less effective, and we’re talking about a pitcher with a high-80’s fastball/low 80’s changeup subject to the caprices of Coors. Hey, at least he’ll get to use that nifty pick-off move a lot. Avert your eyes, fantasy owners.

On the surface, Manny Parra had a decent season for the Brewers in 2008. He posted an okay-but-below-average 4.39 ERA. He racked up 147 strikeouts in 165 innings, but only managed 10 wins and posted a 1.54 WHIP. However, beneath the surface we can see that Parra actually pitched pretty well, and is a good bet to improve in 2009.

First of all, Parra was hindered by some bad luck in 2008. His .337 BABIP was sixth highest among starting pitchers, and his 13.5% HR/FB was higher than league average as well. Both of these numbers figure to regress to the mean in 2009.

Furthermore, Parra showed an above-average ability to induce swinging strikes, an excellent sign for the young southpaw. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of Parra’s pitches – above league average of 7.8% for starters.

He also induced ground balls on 51.6% of his balls in play, and limited fly balls to only 26.6% of his balls in play. This bodes quite well for him, as ground balls rarely become extra base hits and cannot become homers (plus, they can become double plays). Generally, lots of grounders + lots of strikeouts = lots of success.

Additionally, Parra has a track record of success in the minors. In 2007 he was excellent, accumulating 106 strikeouts and only 33 walks in 106 innings across double- and triple-A. Furthermore, he allowed only three homers in that time.

On the downside, Parra walked far too many hitters – 75, to be precise. He threw 39.3% of his pitches for balls – well above league average of 36.5%. However, given his track record, there is reason to believe that Parra will be able to improve upon this. While he was always somewhat wild in the minors, his career minor league walk rate is “only” 2.45 batters per nine. Furthermore, if Parra is able to throw fewer balls next year, it will also allow him to pitch deeper into games, allowing him more opportunities to strike batters out and pick up wins.

Even if Parra throws fewer balls next year, his relatively high walk total may prevent him from being much of an asset in WHIP. However, he will strike a lot of batters out, and the Brewers figure to give him a decent amount of run support, allowing him to pick up a fair amount of wins.

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Fellow Rays pitcher James Shields may have the nickname “Big Game James,” but Matt Garza is more deserving of the moniker, having absolutely dominated the Red Sox in game seven of the ALCS. Garza’s impressive performance capped an amazing mid-season turnaround, and suggests that he could be on the brink of stardom.

Let’s go back to June 8. Catcher Dioner Navarro visited Garza on the mound during his start in Texas, and the two men began shouting at each other. The altercation continued in the dugout after Garza was removed. He didn’t pitch well that day, and he left the start with a 4.38. However, he had actually been a lot worse than his ERA suggested: in 61 innings to that point, he had an abysmal 34/25 K/BB ratio and had allowed eight homers. He had thrown 60.5% of his pitches for strikes and had gotten swinging strikes on 5.7% of his pitches.

But then something changed.

Notably, Garza saw sported psychologist Ken Ravizza after the game (and later credited him in an interview after game seven of the ALCS). And the results were hard to argue with.

Since June 8, Garza pitched 123 innings (not including the playoffs), and posted a 3.37 ERA – a full run lower than his previous ERA. But remember, Garza’s previous ERA had been unjustly low. Since June 7, though, Garza was legitimately excellent: he posted a 94/34 K/BB ratio while allowing 11 homers. He threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes, and induced swinging strikes on 8.6% of his pitches. Furthermore, Garza didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of luck: he allowed a .271 BABIP during this time (low, but remember: the Rays had one of the best defenses in the league), and he allowed 7.7% of his fly balls to become homers.

While his homer rate my rise somewhat (league average is somewhere around 11%), it’s not unreasonable to assume that Garza is likely to maintain his post-June 8 success in 2009. He proved he could handle the big stage at Fenway Park, and he proved he could pitch very well during the last three-and-a-half months of the regular season.

We shall see if he can pitch well over an entire season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect an ERA below 3.50, coupled with ~170 strikeouts and 15-20 wins next season. And, given just how good Garza’s stuff is (anyone who doesn’t realize how good his stuff is should go watch game seven again) – as well as the fact that the Rays should once again have an excellent defense and be one of the league’s best teams – it’s conceivable that Garza could develop further and become a true fantasy ace.

The 2008 Oakland Athletics were just bursting at the seams with intriguing pitching storylines. Aside from jettisoning three-fifths of its 2007 rotation and the bullpen developments of a little-known submariner and a well-pedigreed flame-thrower, the A’s also oversaw the successful transition of a bullpen lifer into a starting stalwart. Justin Duchscherer, a 31 year-old who had started all of 5 games in the majors and hadn’t been taken a regular turn in a rotation since 2003 with AAA Sacramento, managed to post a 2.67 WPA/LI in 2008, 12th-best among all major league starters.

As a middle man for the A’s over the 2003-2007 seasons, Duchscherer struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings while also being stingy with the walks (2.42 BB/9). While “The Duke” has a fastball that wouldn’t get him noticed in a high school game (85.9 MPH in ’08), he was always noted for possessing one of the more diverse arsenals among relievers. While most ‘pen arms rely predominantly on two pitches, Duchscherer throws a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and a changeup. Perhaps intrigued by his solid peripherals and his unusually deep repertoire, Oakland decided to give him a spin in the starting five this past season. The timing seemed a bit peculiar, however, as Duchscherer had just missed the majority of the 2007 season after undergoing hip surgery.

In 141.2 IP, Duchscherer posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA, while posting a WHIP of exactly 1. His control remained stellar, as he issued just 2.16 walks per nine innings. “The Duke” used his full spread of pitches, throwing his fastball just 43.7% overall. He mixed in heavy doses of his 81.7 MPH cutter (29.9%) and his big-breaking 69.9 MPH curveball (24.3%), while also giving hitters an occasional 81.2 MPH slider (1.3%) and an 80.2 MPH changeup (0.8%).

While Duchscherer’s K rate was adequate (6.04) and he limited base runners reaching via walks, there was still a pretty huge discord between his actual ERA (2.54) and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), which was 3.69. “The Duke” benefitted from an extraordinarily low .240 BABIP, a number that will surely climb in 2009. The A’s were quite good with the leather in ’08 (ranking 4th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which ranks the percentage of balls put in play that are converted to outs), and McAfee Coliseum does suppress offensive production , but that .240 mark was the lowest among all starters tossing at least 140 frames. There are also some concerns about the condition of Duchscherer’s hip, as he missed half of August and all of September while dealing with the issue.

Assuming that he’s healthy, Justin Duchscherer should certainly remain on fantasy radars heading into the 2009 season. However, given his solid (but not spectacular) peripherals and his insanely low BABIP, “The Duke” will likely see his ERA rise to a level where he’s more of a useful component rather any sort of rotation front-man.

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, we find that Duchscherer’s most comparable player by age is Paul Byrd, another soft-tosser with a diverse repertoire who didn’t get his chance to stick in a rotation until several years into his career (in Byrd’s case, at age 28). Perhaps that’s an approximate career path for Duchscherer from this point forward: he’ll be useful, but just don’t expect another season with an ERA in the mid-two’s.

I admit it: I have a thing for unexciting pitchers. And Aaron Laffey certainly fits the bill.

But I also think that finding pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money) who have some value is the best ticket to fantasy success. Given the inherent unpredicability of pitching, you can often find decent pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money), allowing you to build a fantastic offensive team by picking offense with many of your high-dollar, early and mid-round picks.

Thus, while Aaron Laffey probably shouldn’t be the ace of your staff, he’s likely to be more valuable than the money you have to spend to get him, or the round in which you can draft him.

Laffey has had a stellar minor league career, although he has gone unnoticed in scouting circles thanks to his, ahem, below-average velocity. Indeed, Laffey’s fastball sits around 87 MPH. However, Laffey has survived – indeed, thrived – thanks to his ability to induce ground balls. Starting in 2005, here are Laffey’s GB percentages in the minors: 67%, 62.5%, 62.2%, and 54.4%. Oh, and Laffey is also fairly stingy with free passes, having issued 2.6 walks per nine innings in his minor league career (although this is artificially inflated by a high walk total back in 2004 – Laffey’s control has since improved).

Laffey’s high ground ball total allows him to keep the ball in the park, thus making up for his lack of strikeouts. You, as a fantasy baseball player, care more about the strikeouts, but hear me out: Laffey may be worthwhile even without a lot Ks.

Laffey had a decent debut in the majors in 2007, posting a 4.56 ERA. However, his FIP was 3.73. He started out 2008 quite well, but tired as the season progressed. He ended up with a 4.23 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP. Most of this was due to the fact that his ground ball percentage was about 10% lower in 2008 than it had been during the rest of his career. This is most likely an outlier – Laffey showed the ability to get more than 60% of his balls in play on the ground throughout his entire career, including in the majors in 2007. If he can revert back to his extreme ground-balling ways, he should benefit from an infield defense that will include Asdrubal Cabrera and may be able to keep his ERA under 4.

Once again, I don’t mean to argue that Aaron Laffey is a particularly great fantasy pitcher. But I think he can post an above-average ERA and WHIP, while perhaps getting a decent amount of wins (if the Indians are as good as I expect them to be). That’s not an ace, but that is a guy who’d make an excellent addition in a deep league, and someone who is likely to be undervalued.

Jonathan Sanchez misses a LOT of bats.

Unfortunately, sometimes that’s because he throws too many balls. But he also induces a lot of strikeouts. And he’s primed to break out in 2009.

Sanchez had an okay year in 2008, posting a 5.01 ERA. He managed 157 strikeouts in only 158 innings, although this came with 75 walks and 14 homers as well.

However, Sanchez’s ERA is misleading: his 08 campaign was actually pretty good, and, more importantly, there are several signs that his 09 could be a lot better.

First of all, Sanchez was somewhat unlucky to post an ERA over 5 in 2008. His FIP was an impressive 3.85, and his tRA was 4.23 (league average is 4.77). Part of the problem was his BABIP: Sanchez allowed an inordinately high .327 BABIP this season. Additionally, Sanchez gave up an extremely high amount of hits in situations in which they scored the most runs: with runners at first and third, batters were 6-for-15; with runners at second and third, batters were 6-for-13; and with the bases loaded batters were 3-for-10 (with three walks). In those three situations, batters hit a combined .395, leading to an inordinately high number of runners scoring.

Furthermore, of the 14 homers that Sanchez allowed, only six were solo shots – despite the fact that 55% of at bats against Sanchez came with no one on base.

In other words, Sanchez gave up far more hits and homers with runners on base than he “should” have, leading to a disproportionately high number of runners who reached base coming around to score. Sure enough, his 67.5% LOB% provides further evidence of this.

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably. He will almost certainly rack up a lot of strikeouts. And, if he can cut down on his walks – certainly possible – he could lower his ERA even further. However, even if Sanchez walks too many, he’ll more than make up for it with a ton of strikeouts and a respectable ERA.

*Thanks to Stat Corner for providing some of the statistics – specifically, swinging strike % and ball %.