Archive for Starting Pitchers

Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.

During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).

In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.

The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).

Suffice it to say, the 2008 Detroit Tigers fell well short of expectations. While the pre-season predictions calling for 1,000 runs scored were ridiculous, Detroit’s 78-84 Pythagorean Record was legitimately disappointing. The Tigers’ offense was reasonably productive (ranking 10th in the majors in Equivalent Average), but the starting pitchers stumbled to a collective 5.03 ERA, ranking just 11th in the American League.

While the continued disappointment and injury issues concerning star-crossed righty Jeremy Bonderman got some attention, the majority will point to Justin Verlander’s campaign as the most troubling development in the Motor City during the 2008 season. Verlander’s ERA ballooned from 3.66 in ’07 to 4.84 in 2008, a hefty increase. So, was Verlander considerably worse this past season? And what can we expect from him in 2009?

To help answer these questions, let’s take a look Verlander’s peripherals and Fielding Independent ERA’s (FIP ERA) over his three full seasons in the major leagues:

2006

186 IP, 6 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%, 4.35 FIP ERA

2007

201.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 74.9 LOB%, 3.99 FIP ERA

2008

201 IP, 7.3 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 65.4 LOB%, 4.18 FIP ERA

Verlander lost some of the K’s that he picked up in 2007 (basically splitting the difference between his K rate in ’06 and ’07) and walked nearly a batter more per nine innings, so his peripherals did slip. However, his 65.4 Left On Base % was well below the major league average (around 70-72%), which explains why his ERA was higher than it should have been given his K’s, walks and home run rate. The main thing to notice here is that his FIP ERA’s over these three years are pretty similar. Verlander’s FIP ERA in 2008 was 4.18. His career FIP ERA? 4.18. That’s certainly useful. But ace-worthy?

It’s also worth mentioning that Verlander’s fastball velocity has progressively dipped each season. It’s not as though he’s scrounging to hit 90 on the radar gun or anything, but he did lose over 1 MPH from 2007 to 2008:

Verlander’s Fastball Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: 95.1 MPH
2007: 94.8 MPH
2008: 93.6 MPH

It’s difficult to say just what sort of effect this will have on Verlander going forward, or if this trend will continue, but it’s a bit troubling for a power pitcher to lose a mile and a half off of his heat before his 26th birthday. While Verlander’s fastball has been getting slower, his changeup and curveball have actually been coming in harder:

Verlander’s Curveball and Changeup Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: Curveball (78.4 MPH) Changeup (81.8 MPH)
2007: Curveball (80.2 MPH) Changeup (82.7 MPH)
2008: Curveball (81 MPH) Changeup (83.7 MPH)

With the dip in fastball velocity and the increase of speed on both his curve and change, Verlander has less speed variance between his pitches. Here’s the difference in speed between his fastball and his secondary pitches over the past three seasons:

2006: Curveball (-16.7 MPH) Changeup (-13.3 MPH)
2007: Curveball (-14.6 MPH) Changeup (-12.1 MPH)
2008: Curveball (-12.6 MPH) Changeup (-9.9 MPH)

It’s an old baseball axiom that pitching is mostly about location and changing speeds. Verlander’s ability to change speeds has eroded by a significant margin since 2006, as his pitches are now coming in within a more limited range of speed. One would imagine that it’s harder to hit a pitcher whose fastball differs 17 MPH from his curve and 13 MPH from his change than it is to hit a guy with a 13 MPH difference with his hook and a 10 MPH difference with the changeup.

Justin Verlander is a good starting pitcher who can look absolutely unhittable at times. However, his peripheral stats and the aforementioned pitching trends suggest that he’s more of a solid starter than an unquestioned star. Verlander’s ERA should revert back to the low-4’s in 2009, but if you’re expecting ace-level production, you may be disappointed.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lefty Joe Saunders is fresh off of the best season of his career. Given the opportunity to make 30+ starts for the first time in the majors, the Virginia Tech product posted a 3.41 ERA (8th among AL starters) and a 2.07 WPA/LI (11th). Saunders compiled a 17-7 W-L record and posted a 130 ERA+.

However, the are some reasons to expect this Hokie to decline in 2009. Saunders’ Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was 4.36 in 2008, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. While his control is pretty solid (2.41 BB/9 in ’08, 2.80 BB/9 career), Saunders does not miss very many bats. He struck out just 4.68 batters per nine innings last season, down from an already tepid 5.79 K/9 in 2007. His 2008 K rate was the 10th-lowest among qualified starters. Aside from Saunders and Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook (who compensates with a ton of groundballs), no one else in the top 10 had a FIP ERA lower than 4.09, despite generally good control:

10 Lowest K Rates Among MLB Starters:

1. Livan Hernandez (3.35 K/9, 4.94 FIP ERA)
2. Aaron Cook (4.09 K/9, 3.76 FIP ERA)
3. Paul Byrd (4.1 K/9, 5.14 FIP ERA)
4. Jon Garland (4.12 K/9, 4.76 FIP ERA)
5. Zach Duke (4.23 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
6. Kenny Rogers (4.25 K/9, 5.22 FIP ERA)
7. Nick Blackburn (4.47 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
8. Greg Maddux (4.55 K/9, 4.09 FIP ERA)
9. Jeff Suppan (4.56 K/9, 5.51 FIP ERA)
10. Saunders (4.68 K/9, 4.36 FIP ERA)

When a pitcher compiles so few strikeouts, he is often subject to the caprices of his defense and variance (luck) on balls put in play. Some years, the ball may bounce the pitcher’s way (as it did for Saunders in 2008, who posted a very low .267 BABIP). Other times, a pitcher might not get so lucky. Take Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke, for example. Duke’s peripherals (4.23 K/9, 2.29 BB/9) were pretty similar to Saunders’, yet Duke posted a mediocre 4.82 ERA. The difference between the two? A huge gap in BABIP. While Saunders was the beneficiary of good luck on balls in play, Duke couldn’t buy an out, and had the misfortune of posting a .327 BABIP.

Saunders figures to be a decent mid-rotation starter at the major league level, a guy worth looking at in the later rounds of the draft. But don’t let the ERA and shiny W-L record fool you: Saunders is more Average Joe than Cy Young.

Cha Seung Baek may not win you any fantasy championships. But he could be an important part of a championship team.

Some people play in shallow leagues – I mean 10-team leagues, with players from both leagues and relatively few roster spots. However, many of you probably play in much deeper leagues – either you have many roster spots, or more than 10 teams, or you play in NL- or AL-only leagues (or all of the above). Therefore, I think it is important to talk about lesser-known players who may not be great, but may still be helpful. And Baek is the perfect example of such a player.

Baek’s primary selling point is that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. By default, most Padres pitchers are pretty good bets for fantasy purposes, simply because of their situation: they play half of their games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and they get to face weak NL West offenses in many of their starts. As long as you’re vigilant about benching a Padre starter anytime they’re pitching in Coors Field, chances are you can find some good deals in their rotation.

Baek was dealt to the Padres from the Seattle Mariners and posted a 4.62 ERA in 110 innings with his new team. Baek also had a K/BB ratio of 77/30 and allowed 12 homers.

On the surface, those are less-than-inspiring numbers, to be sure. However, Baek’s 4.06 FIP suggests that he may be on the verge of improving. Baek stranded only 67% of the runners who reached base – below league average. He also allowed homers on 9.9% of his fly balls– while this is approximately league average, it’s unlikely that this will rise, and may actually fall, thanks to spacious PETCO park.

Furthermore, Baek managed to get swinging strikes on 9% of his pitches this year – league average is just under 8% for starters. He threw balls 34.8% of the time – league average is 36.5%.

So we’re talking about a pitcher who throws fewer balls than average, gets more swinging strikes than average, and plays half of his game in a fantastic pitcher’s park (not to mention the fact that he plays in the weaker league and gets to face many weak offenses). While Cha Seung Baek probably won’t be a fantasy ace or a top-20 pitcher, he’s likely to be undervalued and an asset to your pitching staff, especially in deeper leagues.

Free-agent-to-be Andy Pettitte is 36 years old. The man who has spent 11 years of his career in pinstripes is coming off of a 2008 season in which he posted a 4.54 ERA, his highest mark since 1999. Pettitte surrendered 233 hits in 204 innings, or 10.28 per 9 frames. Those numbers suggest that Pettitte has slipped a notch or two, and is in the decline phase of his career. Something declined in the Bronx this past year, but it wasn’t Pettitte: the quality of the defense behind him is the culprit for Andy’s ascending ERA.

In terms of controllable skills, Pettitte has lost almost nothing to father time. He struck out 6.97 batters per nine innings while showing his typically-solid control, issuing 2.43 BB/9. That 2.87 K/BB ratio helped Pettitte post a 3.71 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). The 0.84 run difference between his actual ERA (4.54) and his FIP ERA is the fifth-largest in baseball among qualified pitchers. The reason for that wide dichotomy is Andy’s Sistine Chapel-high .339 BABIP. When a hitter put the ball in play, those Yankee gloves did a very poor job of converting it into an out. The Bombers ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which measures the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but since Pettitte posted a 1.80 GB/FB ratio in 2008 (thus giving his infield D plenty of chances), let’s start in the infield. From Bill James Online, we can take a look at John Dewan’s Plus/Minus Fielding Data. Dewan’s system rates players based on the number of plays made above/below the number that an average fielder would make. For a more complicated explanation, see Dewan’s site. By position, here are the infield’s plus/minus numbers, with their rank among that position in parentheses:

1B Jason Giambi: -18(34)
2B Robinson Cano: -16(35)
SS Derek Jeter: -12 (31) (blasphemy!)
3B Alex Rodriguez: +2(17)

Only A Rod came in with a solid rating, with Giambi, Cano and Jeter all coming in well below the major league average. Without starting a riot or beating to death a topic that has been widely discussed, it’s virtually impossible to find an objective defensive metric that rates Jeter as anything a poor-fielding major league shortstop. In fact, his -12 showing this past year was actually a major improvement from ’07 (-34). Perhaps there’s some hope of a rebound for Cano, as he posted an excellent +17 mark in 2007 (5th-best among 2B). Giambi, meanwhile, has long been an iron glove at first. But, like Pettitte, he’s a free agent after the Yankees declined his $22M option by buying him out for $5M. Perhaps the good folks in New York who sit along the first base line will no longer have to wear protective equipment to the game to shield against Giambi’s follies, as slick-fielding Mark Teixeira (+24) is a possible replacement.

While Pettitte is more of a groundball-oriented pitcher, we would be remiss if we didn’t mention the extreme difficulty that one New York outfielder had as well:

Johnny Damon: +7 in LF(10), -3 in CF
Hideki Matsui: -2 in LF
Xavier Nady: -4 in RF(22), +2 in LF
Brett Gardner: -2 in LF, +6 in CF
Melky Cabrera: +6 in CF(11)
Bobby Abreu: -24 in RF(34)

Abreu (also a free agent) showed precious little range in right field, and it’s not a one year fluke: he rated 32nd among RF in both 2006 and 2007. The soon-to-be-36 year-old remains a solid hitter, but NL teams may want to think twice before offering him a multi-year contract.

If Cano rebounds, Teixeira signs, Abreu moves on and Jeter moves off of shortstop (hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?), the Yankees could improve defensively by a significant margin. However, none of those things are guaranteed, and it’s possible that the club will be sporting little leather once again next season. Pettitte is a long-time Yankee and a former farm product, but he might do his ERA a favor by picking a less defensively-challenged team this winter.

The ninth pick of the 2005 draft, Mike Pelfrey shook off a brutal start to begin paying dividends for both the Mets and fantasy players last year. He finished with 13 wins and a 3.72 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and 110 strikeouts. Those numbers combined to make Pelfrey a top-60 starting pitcher in fantasy in 2008.

Those numbers are decent but to decipher Pelfrey’s potential value in 2009, it is worthwhile to look at his numbers both before and after he turned the corner. In the first nine starts of the year, Pelfrey was 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP. In his final 23 games, Pelfrey was 11-5 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP.

Now, those first nine starts of 2008 count and it would be foolish to write them off completely. But at the same time when projecting Pelfrey’s 2009 stats, it is equally silly to ignore the improvement he made over his final 23 games. He was so bad the first two months of the season that it dragged down his overall numbers.

If Pelfrey’s true talent level is a pitcher with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP then he moves up to the equal of pitchers like Ted Lilly or Jon Lester in the 20-25 range for starting pitchers.

Now we should look at his peripherals. Pelfrey had a .302 BABIP and his 3.96 FIP was slightly over his 3.72 ERA. A sinkerball pitcher, Pelfrey does an excellent job keeping the ball in the park, as his 0.54 HR/9 shows. He really turned the corner last year with his command. He finished with a 2.87 BB/9, which was nearly two full walks lower than his 2007 mark.

When valuing Pelfrey for 2009, ask if he can keep his HR rate that low. I believe with that power sinker he can. Then, can he keep the walk rate that low? Ordinarily, I would say no. But when we look at what he did over his final 23 games, his BB/9 mark was 2.37 over that span. That gives me greater confidence that he can maintain his 2008 seasonal rate of just under three.

So, the final thing to ponder is what will his K/9 look like. For all of 2008 it was 4.93, which is less than good. It was slightly better over his final 23 games – 5.16 – but nothing really to write home about, either. Pelfrey can survive without a high strikeout rate, but as fantasy players we want the big strikeout guys and it’s an important factor in ranking him appropriately.

Pelfrey had good-to-great strikeout rates in the minors. He averaged 6.81 SO/9 in 14 games at Triple-A in 2007 and had double-digit rates in 2006. And we’ve seen with Chien-Ming Wang that a sinkerballer can add strikeouts as they mature. I think a SO/9 rate of 6.00 is within reach for Pelfrey in 2009.

It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.

Precious little went right for the Colorado Rockies in 2008. On the heels of a campaign in which the club improbably won 20 of 21 games to finish out the regular season and advanced to the World Series, the Rockies suffered multiple injuries and came crashing back to earth, posting a 74-88 Pythagorean record.

One bright spot in an otherwise bleak season was the continued development of right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a non-drafted free agent in 2001, Jimenez has long adorned prospect lists on the basis of pure stuff; mid-to-upper 90’s heat and occasionally nasty breaking pitches have a way of catching the attention of scouts. While Jimenez showed a propensity to miss bats in the minors (8.81 K/9), he also displayed less-than-stellar control by issuing 4.47 free passes per nine innings.

Ubaldo got a brief cup of coffee with Colorado in 2006 before making it to the big leagues for good in July of 2007, when he was inserted into the starting rotation. Given his performances at AAA Colorado Springs, however, there were reasons to doubt his readiness:

2006: 78.1 IP, 5.06 ERA, 7.35 K/9, 4.94 BB/9
2007: 103 IP, 5.85 ERA, 7.78 K/9, 5.42 BB/9

Granted, Colorado Springs is a tough pitching environment (inflating offensive production between 6-9% from 2005-2007, per Baseball Prospectus 2008), but walking well over 5 batters per nine innings is certainly not the hallmark of a finished product.

Despite the ugly numbers in the high minors, Jimenez actually handled himself quite well. While his control was still rough around the edges (4.06 BB/9) he K’d 7.46/9 while showcasing a fastball that popped the catcher’s mitt at an average speed of 95.8 MPH. In 82 innings of work, Jimenez posted a 4.74 FIP ERA. Considering his home environment and his lukewarm performances at AAA, that qualified as a successful debut.

In his first full year in the rotation in 2008, Ubaldo made 34 starts, lowering his FIP ERA to a tidy 3.83. He struck out a few more batters (7.79 K/9), though he also regressed a bit with his control (4.67 BB/9). Interestingly, Jimenez became much more of a groundball pitcher this past season:

2007: 1.26 GB/FB, 46.4 GB%
2008: 1.94 GB/FB, 54.4 GB%

Perhaps trading some speed for movement, Jimenez threw his fastball a little bit slower (94.9 MPH) in 2008. If Ubaldo can keep up this worm-killing trend in the future, it would bode very well for his career prospects. Clearly, Coors Field is not a venue where one wants to put the ball in the air with any frequency. With fewer balls leaving the infield, Jimenez slashed his HR/9 rate from 1.1 in ’07 to 0.5 in ’08. That number will likely regress somewhat next season (his HR/FB% was a very low 6.9%), but fewer flyballs should mean fewer cheap home runs at Coors.

Ubaldo Jimenez (25 in January) remains somewhat raw, but his combination of solid strikeout rates and groundball tendencies make him an intriguing starter. Armed with mid-90’s heat, an 86 MPH power slider, a 75 MPH curve and an 86 MPH changeup, Jimenez has the repertoire to make hitters’ lives difficult in the NL West. He will likely always walk his fair share of hitters, but if Jimenez can miss bats and keep his infield defense busy, he could develop into a fantasy stalwart.

The Pirates defense was terrible in 2008.

Nate McLouth had no range in center. Jason Bay and Xavier Nady weren’t much better in the corners. Freddy Sanchez was terrible at second base. The list goes on.

Why do you, the astute fantasy baseball player, care about the Pirates defense? Because it contributed to poor pitching performances. And if the defense improves – which it should – you may be able to find some sleepers on the Pirates pitching staff.

There is reason to believe that the Pirates defense will be better in 09 than it was in 08. First of all, Bay and Nady have since departed. At some point in 09, it’s likely that McLouth will be moved to a corner, and Andrew McCutchen – who is reported to be an above-average defender – will replace him in center field. Furthermore, Andy LaRoche is entrenched at third base, where he should be at least average. While Sanchez remains at second and shortstop is a question mark, the Pirates defense should be much better than it was last year, even if they’re not leading the league in DER.

This has ramifications for all Pirates pitchers, but two in particular:

Ian Snell had the second-highest BABIP of any starting pitcher in baseball, at .358. Even allowing for the fact that Snell may be more hittable than your average pitcher, a .358 BABIP is ridiculously high, and will likely regress to the mean next year. Even though Snell had a 5.42 ERA this season, he coupled that with a 4.57 FIP, suggesting a fair amount of bad luck. With some regression to the mean – and an improved defense behind him – Snell should see a lot more balls in play become outs next year. Snell may not be an ace, but he could be a decent fantasy pitcher, especially in deeper leagues.

Along similar lines, Zach Duke posted a .327 BABIP this year – ninth highest of all pitchers. Duke is also rather hittable, but it’s no coincidence that the two of the Pirates starting pitchers were in the top-10 in BABIP: their defense really was that bad. Even if Duke regresses, he’s still nothing more than a waiver-wire pickup or a late pick in an NL-only league; even so, Duke is likely to be undervalued, and should be watched in deep leagues.

Quick: match these 2008 pitching stats with the players who authored them:

Pitcher A: 173.2 IP, 3.60 FIP ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 1.70 WPA, 27 years old
Pitcher B: 202.1 IP, 3.56 FIP ERA, 8.14 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 1.74 WPA, 25 years old

As you can see, these two fellows are nearly dead even in terms of Fielding Independent ERA, with Pitcher A holding a slight edge in K’s and Pitcher B exhibiting sharper control. Both players enjoyed very strong campaigns, but the perception of the two is markedly different. Player A is considered a bondfide ace, and has been the subject of much trade debate. Player B, meanwhile, might not even be recognized by the average fan as the best starting pitcher on his own team.

So, who are these guys? Player A is quasi-ace Jake Peavy. Player B is none other than Royals righty Zack Greinke. If we want to dig a little bit deeper into their respective 2008 seasons, the numbers actually slant a little further toward Greinke’s favor. Using Statcorner’s tRA statistic (which is park and defense neutral, thus negating Peavy’s Petco Park advantage), we find that Peavy turned in a 4.02 tRA (4.77 NL average) and a 116 tRA+ (100 is average), while Greinke managed a 3.74 tRA (4.87 AL average) and a 123 tRA+. In other words, Greinke outperformed the man for whom teams are lining up to surrender their farm systems.

None of this is to criticize Peavy (though his trade value might be slightly less than it seems at first glance). This exercise simply points out just how good Zack Greinke has become. He has essentially transformed from more of a finesse pitcher to a power arm capable of ripping through the best lineups in the DH league.

Greinke’s first two years in the big leagues were solid (his 5.80 ERA in ’05 was the result of a fluky .343 BABIP), but his K rates were not those of a fledging ace:

2004: 6.21 K/9, 1.61 BB/9, 4.64 XFIP
2005: 5.61 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 4.94 XFIP

(for those of you wondering, XFIP is a fielding independent stat that “normalizes” home run rates. HR/fly ball rates tend to fluctuate, so this takes out some of the “noise” from the pitcher’s line and just examines strikeouts, walks, and uses an average home/flyball rate.)

Following a 2006 season in which Greinke dealt with some personal issues (spending the great majority of the season at AA), he re-emerged in 2007 as a vastly different type of pitcher. While his average fastball velocity was a mild 89.8 MPH in 2005, he threw his heat an average of 94 MPH in 2007. He threw his cheese slightly softer in ’08 (93.3 MPH), but that’s still one hefty increase in speed. And, as we can see from Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, Greinke’s fastball is anything but “true”: it has above-average vertical movement and plenty of tailing action in on the hands of a right-handed batter. With that increased speed, Greinke’s pedestrian K rate climbed to 7.82 in 2007 before hitting a career-high 8.14 this past season.

Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Greinke’s dastardly secondary pitches as well. When he’s not firing darts with his fastball, he can utilize a hard 85 MPH slider or a soft 74 MPH curveball to buckle hitters’ knees. Still not impressed? He can also break out an 82 MPH changeup with fading and dropping action.

By utilizing John Walsh’s work from The Hardball Times and Josh Kalk’s pitch data, we can compare Greinke’s vertical and horizontal movement on his pitches to that of the average pitcher:

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Fastball
Greinke: -5.29X, 10.61Z
Average: -6.2X, 8.9Z

Slider
Greinke: 4.28X, 0.63Z
Average: 0.7X, 3.7Z

Curveball
Greinke: 7.42X, -3.29Z
Average: 5.2X, -3.3Z

Changeup
Greinke: -8.52X, 4.95Z
Average: -7.4X, 6.0Z

Greinke has a four-pitch mix, and literally all four could be considered plus offerings considering their above-average movement. His curveball and slider both generate a ridiculous amount of horizontal break, while his changeup drops over 5 inches more than his fastball while also tailing away an additional 3.2 inches. And, as if he didn’t have enough going for him, Zack upped his groundball rate from a very low 32.1% in 2007 to 42.7% in 2008. Fewer fly balls means fewer opportunities for the home run bug to bite him.

While other starting pitchers may come with a higher degree of name recognition, few are better than Zack Greinke. Given his youth, power arsenal and positive statistical trends, there’s no reason not to pick this guy early on draft day.

14 wins, a 4.42 ERA and 108 strikeouts. Not bad for a late-round flier, right?

Indeed, Edwin Jackson may have been the best fifth starter in baseball this year, and was a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays won 97 games. However, much of Jackson’s success this year is unsustainable, and you should be very wary of him in 2009.

Let’s start simply: in 183 innings, Jackson posted a K/BB ratio of 108/77. If you’re going to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings, you’d better do something else well – namely, you’d better limit your walks and/or get a lot of ground balls.

Unfortunately, Jackson doesn’t limit his walks, and doesn’t get a tremendous amount of grounders, either (he actually allowed slightly more fly balls than grounders this year). So what does he do well? Jackson was exceptional in “clutch” situations this year.

In fact, according to our handy “clutch” stat here at Fangraphs, Edwin Jackson was the third-most “clutch” pitcher in baseball. Of course, the better a pitcher is, the more likely is to be clutch – a good pitcher is more likely to retire a hitter in any situation than a bad pitcher.

Therefore, it’s of little surprise to see John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester among the top 11 “clutchiest” pitchers in baseball this year. However, Edwin Jackson’s clutchiness is a big surprise: Jackson was far better in important situations than he was overall.

In fact, Jackson allowed an .830 OPS against him with no one on base, but a .752 OPS with runners on. With runners in scoring position and two outs, he allowed a .682 OPS. With men on first and second, opposing batters got a hit only five times in 40 at bats. They were 4-for-17 with runner at third, and hit only .262 with runners in scoring position, as opposed to .281 overall.

Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible. If this were the case, we’d expect Edwin to exhibit similar splits in 2007 (when, incidentally, his K/BB ratio was a very-similar 128/88).

In 2007, his OPS against with none on was .847; whereas his OPS with runners on was 821. However, with runners in scoring position, his OPS against was .857. Batters hit .305 with runners in scoring position, as compared to .299 overall.

In short, Edwin Jackson displayed no ability to pitch well in the clutch in 2007. And he showed very little, if any, actual improvement in his overall game from 2007 to 2008. Rather, his “improvement” is tied directly to his splits with runners on base, leading him to give up far fewer runs than he “should” have. Unless you think that this is actual improvement in his “clutch” pitching – which is extremely rare and not backed up by the numbers – look for Jackson’s ERA to rise, perhaps significantly, in 2009.