Archive for Starting Pitchers

Would you believe that 2008 was Dave Bush’s worst season?

On the surface, this might not seem so. After all, Bush posted the best ERA of his career – 4.18 in 185 innings – along with a nice 1.18 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Certainly not the numbers of a fantasy ace, but well worth having on your team (considering that you probably got him for free from the waiver wire).

However, Bush was worse last year than he had been in the past, even though he had posted higher ERAs in the past. Let me explain.

Before 2008, Bush posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.41, and 5.12 from 2005-2007. However, his FIP was better than his ERA in 2006 and 2007, and Bush looked like the type of player who was primed for a breakout – although he didn’t punch many batters out, he limited his walks and got a fair share of grounders. Bush was hampered by a high HR/FB rate, a high BABIP (.327 in 2007) and a low LOB%.

And then, in 2008, the breakout came. Of course, it wasn’t really a “breakout” in the sense of Bush becoming a frontline starter, but rather Bush becoming a decent starter – a breakout for him. But even though Bush posted solid numbers in 2008, it appears that his “breakout” is actually more luck – just good luck, this time.

Dave Bush’s .245 BABIP was the lowest of any pitcher who pitched at least 150 innings this year. For those of you who are still skeptical of a pitcher’s inability to control BABIP, Bush is a perfect example: his BABIP was .327 just a year ago, and he had some people wondering whether he was simply more “hittable” because he didn’t have great stuff. And yet this year, he had the lowest BABIP of any starter in the game.

Needless to say, this BABIP will almost certainly regress in 2009, and Bush will allow more hits as a result.

However, the other factors that caused optimism about Bush – namely, his ground ball rate and his walk rate – got worse in 2008. Bush allowed more than 40% of his balls in play to be fly balls for the first time in his career (excluding his short stint in 2004). Fly balls left the yard at approximately a league average rate (12% of his fly balls became homers), but Bush allowed a whopping 23 homers in only 168 innings due to the sheer number of fly balls that he surrendered.

Furthermore, his control, which had been one of his biggest strengths, declined. After walking 1.91, 1.63, and 2.13 hitters per nine innings from 2005 through 2007, Bush allowed 2.38 walks in 2008. This may not seem like a big increase, but it’s a big deal for a guy like Bush, who doesn’t get many strikeouts and relies on his defense. The more free passes a low-strikeout pitcher allows, the worse he is going to be.

Finally, using some of the handy stats over at Stat Corner, we can see that Bush induced fewer swinging strikes in 2008 (7.5%) than he did in 06 and 07 (8.7% and 9.1%, respectively). This is not a good sign in and of itself, but it’s even worse when coupled with a rise in his walks. Additionally, Bush threw far more balls in 2008 (36.2% of his pitches were out of the strike zone) than he did in 06 and 07 (33.4% and 34.1%, respectively). That doesn’t bode well at all.

Dave Bush is likely to be worse – perhaps a lot worse – next season than he was in 2008. Let someone else make the mistake of overvaluing him on draft day.

In a season rife with unexpected twists and turns, Ryan Dempster’s transformation from sufficient reliever to rotation stalwart might have been the biggest surprise. Prior to 2008, Dempster had not made more than twenty starts since his last season in Cincinnati (2003), and the results were disastrous back then: A 6.54 ERA, 134 hits and 14 home runs surrendered in 115.2 innings pitched. Dempster’s lowest Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) as a starter was 4.35, all the way back in 2000 as a member of the Florida Marlins. And, to top it all off, Dempster had posted a FIP ERA over four as a reliever for the Cubs over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined, and failed to crack a 2/1 K/BB ratio in any of his four seasons in the Chicago bullpen between 2004 and 2007.

Despite the laundry list of reasons as to why “Dempster the starter” seemed like a dubious proposition, the Cubs went ahead with the plan, and were rewarded with one of the better pitching performances in the National League. In 206.2 innings, Dempster struck out 8.14 batters per nine innings, and kept his walks at an adequate level (3.31 BB/9), something he has struggled to do in the past (career BB/9 of 4.47). Dempster’s 2.46 K/BB ratio was the highest of his career, and was actually only the second time that he has surpassed that 2/1 mark (2000 being the other year).

However, his 2.96 ERA overstates his case by about a half a run, as Dempster’s FIP ERA was 3.41. That dichotomy is the product of a low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7.7%. HR/FB rates tend to stabilize around 11-12% for pitchers, so expect that number to regress going forward. As that HR/FB rate ticks up, so will Dempster’s 0.61 HR/9.

Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we can get a more accurate read on Dempster’s performance. XFIP is perhaps the best way to gauge of a pitcher’s controllable skills, as it uses strikeouts, walks and an average HR/FB rate to calculate ERA. By doing so, XFIP eliminates lucky or unlucky performances on flyballs. So, Dempster’s auspicious HR/FB rate is regressed, giving us a better indication of his actual performance. If we adjust for the home run luck, Dempster’s XFIP ERA comes in at 3.94. That figure ranked 11th among NL starters.

Is Dempster’s 2008 showing a sign of things to come, or just an aberrant, blip-on-the-radar season? As we have seen, Dempster’s performance was quite good, but not sub-three ERA good. But can Dempster be expected to keep an ERA in the high three’s to low four’s during the course of his new four-year, $52 million contract?

Ordinarily, one would have every reason to be highly skeptical of a 31 year-old with a mild track record of success, a pitcher who last performed well in the rotation at the advent of the new millennium. However, Dempster does have some things working for him on a scouting level, as his repertoire played differently in the starting five than it did out of the bullpen.

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, we can compare Dempster’s stuff out of the ‘pen in 2007 to what he threw as a starter in 2008.

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

2007

Fastball: -7.21 X, 8.15 Z
Slider: 0.16 X, 0.81 Z
Changeup: -7.13 X, 5.71 Z

Dempster’s fastball had a good deal of tailing movement in on right-handers (-7.21 X), but his slider and changeup weren’t especially reliable. His slider did not register much horizontal break away from righties. His changeup did a nice job of mirroring his fastball in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical movement between the two pitches was just 2.44 inches. That’s not a whole lot, especially considering that his fastball (92 MPH) and change (83.1) had less than a 9 MPH dichotomy in velocity.

2008

Fastball: -6.72 X, 8.26 Z
Slider: 1.23 X, 0.08 Z
Changeup: -6.95 X, 3.75 Z

Dempster’s fastball registered similar horizontal and vertical break, but the quality of his secondary pitches increased. Dempster’s slider broke over an inch more away from righties this past season, while also showing a little more dropping action in the zone. Dempster’s changeup continued to mirror his heater in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical break between the two pitches improved. Dempster’s change dropped in the zone 4.51 inches more than his fastball did, almost doubling the difference from 2007. When commentators talk about a pitcher “pulling the string” on a changeup, this is what they are referring to. With similar horizontal break but a pronounced drop in vertical movement, hitters gear up for the fastball, get the changeup, and swing over top of the pitch.

Will Dempster’s improved secondary stuff allow him to keep most of the gains that he made during the 2008 season? The Marcel projection system seems to think so, forecasting Dempster for a 3.70 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 in 2009. It’s important to keep in mind that Dempster outperformed his peripherals this past season, and we would expect some regression in his ERA even if he repeated his strikeout and walk levels. If Dempster keeps his walk rate in check and continues to display a nasty slider/changeup combo, he could meet Marcel’s projection.

It was a tale of two halves for Roy Oswalt in 2008. Before the All-Star break, Oswalt suffered from injuries (strained abductor muscle, hip injury) and a bad case of gopheritis. But in the second half he was one of the top pitchers in baseball. Oswalt was 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA with 18 HRs in 116.1 IP in the first half. But he was 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA with five HRs in 92.1 IP after the break.

Oswalt reversed a three-year trend of declining K/9 rates, posting a 7.12 rate. Additionally, his BB/9 and WHIP rates were nearly identical to his career rates. On the flip side, Oswalt posted the second-highest HR/FB rate of his career at 12.7 percent. The only thing that saved him was that he allowed the fewest fly balls of his career. Oswalt’s 29.2 percent FB% ranked 14th in the majors last season.

What can we expect in 2009? Oswalt’s Marcel projection, which regresses to the mean and uses an age factor, has him failing to reach 200 innings for the first time since his injury-plagued 2003, a 3.65 ERA, which would be the highest mark of his career, and the fewest strikeouts of the last five seasons. This seems a tad pessimistic.

Once Oswalt got over his injury problems, he was a completely different pitcher. The only way his Marcel projection makes sense is if Oswalt battles injuries again throughout the year, certainly a possibility given his injury history. He has endured wrist, groin, foot and hip injuries (among others) throughout his career. But he has also topped 30 starts in six of his seven full seasons in the majors.

His velocity has been unchanged the past few years and he is one of the top groundball pitchers in the majors. Oswalt’s 2008 HR rate seems like an injury-related thing, especially since he allowed 0.49 HR/9 when he was healthy after the break. Oswalt’s upside is as a top-10 pitcher. Because of his injury history, one should downgrade him somewhat. But nowhere near where his Marcel projection rates him.

The 2008 Toronto Blue Jays just might have been the strongest fourth-place team in major league history. Toiling in the brutally competitive AL East, Toronto compiled a +104 run differential due to the club’s outstanding run prevention. While strong defense deserves some of the credit (the Jays ranked 3rd in the majors in Defensive Efficiency), the Blue Jays starters were plenty effective, compiling a league-best 3.72 ERA as a staff. However, that group will look drastically different in 2009, with Shaun Marcum falling victim to Tommy John Surgery, Dustin McGowan recovering from a shoulder operation and A.J. Burnett likely headed greener pastures courtesy of a lavish free agent payday.

One of the guys who will be back (along with that Halladay fellow) is right-hander Jesse Litsch. A 24th-round draft pick out of South Florida Community College in 2004, Litsch quickly ascended to the majors following a minor league career that showcased polish, if not power (3.41 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.58 BB/9).

Reaching Toronto at the age of 22 in 2007, Litsch made 20 starts for the Jays. In 111 innings pitched, Litsch posted a 3.81 ERA. However, that number overstated his performance. Litsch’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was a more tame 5.14. He displayed relatively good command (2.92 BB/9) and kept the ball on the ground (48.1 GB%), but Litsch just didn’t miss any bats, with only 4.05 K/9. That strikeout rate was the 11th-lowest among starters throwing at least 100 innings. A quick look at the other names near the bottom of the whiff list (including Steve Trachsel and Livan Hernandez) shows that it doesn’t pay to garner so few swings and misses.

In 2008, Litsch would once again outperform his peripherals, compiling a 3.58 ERA in 176 innings. The 6-1, 175 pounder benefitted from a combination of good luck and stellar defensive play behind him, posting a below-average .285 BABIP. While Litsch was fortunate to post such a low ERA, his rates did improve. His abhorrent strikeout rate crept up to 5.06 per nine innings (still quite low, but it’s something) and he issued just 1.99 BB/9. With the slightly improved K rate, sharp command and more work for his infield D (48.5 GB%), Litsch’s FIP ERA was a legitimately useful 4.29.

What makes Litsch so interesting is his “kitchen sink” approach to pitching. You name a pitch, and odds are, he throws it. Litsch used a traditional fastball less than any other pitcher in baseball this past season, save for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Litsch’s 89.9 MPH heater was utilized just 23.9% of the time, and that was actually up from his 18.9% fastball usage in 2007. His bread-and-butter offering is an 86 MPH cutter, used 43.4% of the time. Litsch also feeds batters a steady serving of 82 MPH sliders (11.4%), 77 MPH curves (11.9%) and 81 MPH changeups (9.4%). None of those pitches are dominating, but facing a pitcher with such a diversified repertoire has to be challenging.

Batters appeared to find Litsch’s stuff a little harder to hit in 2008. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from a below-average 19.6% in ’07 to 25.5% in 2008. That bodes well for his long-term prospects. As Eric Seidman discovered, there is a statistically significant relationship between O-Swing% and BB/9, WHIP, ERA, and FIP ERA.

Both the Bill James and Marcel projection systems see some regression coming to Litsch’s ERA in 2009, with James predicting a 4.06 mark and Marcel forecasting a 3.87 showing. Both systems have Litsch’s projected FIP ERA at 4.43.

Jesse Litsch will never be a dominant starter, as his low strikeout rate will often keep him at the caprices of the defense behind him. Luckily, the leather behind Litsch is solid right now. That, coupled with groundball tendencies and strong control, should be enough for the 24 year-old to post another season worthy of fantasy consideration.

While I’m quite sure that we are all familiar with the $137.5 million dollar man in Queens, there is yet another pitcher with the Santana surname who just turned in one of the best seasons of any starter in the game in 2008. Ervin Santana, long noted for his power fastball/slider combo, emerged as one of the more valuable properties in the American League.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic as an undrafted free agent in 2000, Santana made his major league debut in 2005. He would post a 4.43 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) in 133.2 IP that season, with 6.67 K/9 and 3.16 BB/9. A flyball pitcher (36.6 GB%), he was occasionally bit by the home run bug, with 1.14 HR/9.

Santana’s 2006 line would look largely the same in terms of his peripherals, as he struck out 6.22 batters per nine innings and issued 3.09 BB/9. His FIP ERA lowered slightly, down to 4.29. Though he remained a flyball-oriented hurler (38.4 GB%), Santana had better luck in the home run department. His 0.93 HR/9 was largely the product of a low 7.7 HR/FB%.

After two solid campaigns, Santana seemed primed to build upon his success and establish a new level of performance. Instead, he got his head handed to him: in 150 IP, Santana posted a ghastly 5.76 ERA. Some of that was the product of a very high BABIP (.333) and a low strand rate (67.3 LOB%), and he did manage to up his K rate to 7.56. However, his walk rate increased (3.48 BB/9) and he was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.56 HR/9. His HR/FB rate (11.9%) was not especially out of whack; he just gave up a ton of flyballs. Santana’s 35.6 GB% was the 8th-lowest among starters tossing at least 140 innings. With the higher walk rate and the homer-happy style, Santana’s FIP ERA climbed to 5.13.

Over his first three seasons in the big leagues, Santana utilized a four pitch mix: a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup.

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2005-2007:

(FB=fastball, SL=Slider, CT=Cutter, CB=Curveball, CH=Changeup, SF= Split Finger XX= unidentified. The first number is the % that the pitch was thrown, the number in parentheses is the velocity)

2005: FB 61.7% (93.4), SL 21.7% (81), CB 6.3% (78), CH 10% (84.2), SF 0.3% (86.7)
2006: FB 60.9% (93.1), SL 21% (80.9), CB 8.5% (78.1), CH 9.6% (82.1)
2007: FB 61.9% (92.2), SL 24% (81), CB 8.7% (77.1), CH 5.5% (83.1)

Santana seemed to make an effort to incorporate all four pitches into his arsenal, though his changeup seemed to be waning in favor. He lost nearly a mile an hour off of his fastball in 2007, which would help explain his home run issues. Santana is a guy who likes to challenge hitters up in the zone with his four-seam fastball. One MPH might not seem like much, but it could mean all the difference in the world to a hitter’s reaction time.

In 2008, Santana returned with a simpler pitching approach. He basically scrapped the curve and used his change even less, instead choosing to rely upon his nasty slider:

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2008:

FB 61.4% (94.4), SL 33.9% (83.9), CB 0.8% (78.1), CH 3.9% (85.8)

Santana’s fastball velocity bounced back to a career-high 94.4 MPH, and he increased his slider usage by about 10 percent. With improved heat and a harder, oft-utilized slider (the slider nearly gained 3 MPH), Santana drastically improved his performance this past season. He upped his WPA/LI from -1.85 to 3.08, almost a five-win swing. Santana’s strikeout rate jumped to 8.79 and he walked just 1.93 batters per nine innings. His HR/FB% was low at 8.9%, so his 0.95 HR/9 figures to creep up somewhat, but his FIP ERA was an outstanding 3.30. That figure ranked 5th among all American League starters. He also managed to correct his cartoonish home/road splits, though it’s debatable how much of that was just statistical “noise” from 2005-2007. Angel Stadium suppresses home run production, but no pitcher should have that wide of a split between home and road performance. Given Santana’s talent, there’s no reason to expect any wide split going forward.

There are plenty of other positive indicators as well. Santana got ahead of hitters much more consistently in 2008, upping his First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%) from 59.9% in 2007 to 66.7% in ’08. Among all major league starters, only the incredibly precise Mike Mussina (67.6%) got ahead of batters with more frequency. Hitters also went fishing outside of the strike zone far more often this past season. Santana’s O-Swing% increased from 26.3% in 2007 to 31.7% in 2008. Only Jake Peavy and CC Sabathia garnered more undisciplined swings from batters. Santana’s Contact% also dipped by a solid margin, from 83.3% in ’07 to 77.1% in ’08. That 2008 figure ranked 11th among all starters, just slightly behind that other Santana guy.

Just about every performance indicator for Ervin Santana is trending up. Unleashing mid-90’s heat and a hellacious mid-80’s slider, Santana has increased his strikeouts, slashed his walk rate, is getting ahead of hitters and is becoming increasingly harder to hit. What’s not to like? 2008 was no outlier: Santana is here to stay as one of the best starters in the game.

The prospect of a soon-to-be 300 game winner and future first-ballot hall of famer being undervalued sounds pretty silly. But free agent Randy Johnson may just fit the bill at this stage of his career. If reports are to be believed, Johnson is willing to cut his $16 million salary nearly in half to remain in Arizona, but the cash-strapped D-Backs do not appear interested. At $8-10 million for what would likely be a one-year deal, Johnson would be an absolute bargain in a pitching market that figures to see some exorbitant long-term signings. The Big Unit is also likely to be a big bargain on draft day.

Many were ready to write Johnson off following the 2007 season. After all, he had posted a 5.00 ERA with the Yankees in 2006, and then missed the better portion of the 2007 campaign following back surgery.

The problem with that thinking was, Johnson’s peripheral stats never took the big hit that his Bronx ERA suggested. Rather, he posted an incredibly low 61.8% Strand Rate (LOB%) in 2006, 13% below his career average. Johnson’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) remained a steady 4.27, as he posted rates of 7.55 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He was a bit homer-prone (1.23 BB/9), but Johnson’s overall package of skills remained strong. In an injury-shortened 2007, Johnson would toss just 56.2 innings. However, he showed no signs of decline before the back injury sidelined him, compiling a 3.20 FIP ERA. He struck out 11.44 batters per nine innings and issued 2.06 BB/9.

In 2008, Johnson would recover and take the mound for 30 starts, turning in another fine season. In 184 IP, The Big Unit posted a 3.76 FIP ERA, with a solid 8.46 K/9 and just 2.15 BB/9. Home runs were still a slight issue (1.17 HR/9), but Johnson turned in a remarkably strong performance for any pitcher, much less for a guy in his mid-40’s. To illustrate how strong Johnson’s 2008 season was, here are his ranks among all starters in some major categories:

K/9: 11th
BB/9: 24th
K/BB: 10th
FIP ERA: 28th

In all probability, Johnson remains one of the top 30 starters in the game. He may no longer sling his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90’s (90.8 MPH in 2008), but he has compensated by adding a nasty split-finger pitch in addition to his trademark slider. As his heater has lost some hop, Johnson has gone from throwing his splitter 2.2% of the time in 2005 to 13.4% in 2008.

A look at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows that while The Big Unit’s fastball may have lost some velocity, it remains a plus pitch. Johnson’s heat has a ton of horizontal movement (10.21 inches; the average fastball has 5.46 inches of horizontal break) and a decent amount of vertical break as well (7.76 inches). That newfound splitter is a good complementary pitch, as it dives about four inches lower in the zone than Johnson’s fastball. Combined with his slider, Johnson can still effectively work up/down and in/out, harnessing all quadrants of the strike zone. Opponents found him to be plenty hard to hit, as Johnson’s 78.2 Contact% was 18th-lowest among starting pitchers.

There are surely more inherent risks with a 45 year-old hurler who has undergone knee and back surgery over the past few seasons, but there are next to no signs of a degradation in performance here. Randy Johnson is without question one of the best starting pitchers of this generation. However, let’s not plan the date for his Cooperstown speech just yet: The Big Unit can still bring it.

Kevin Slowey had a solid year for the Twins, posting a 3.99 ERA in 160 innings. Slowey’s biggest strength is his impeccable control – he issued only 24 walks in 160 innings, the lowest walk rate (1.35 per nine) of any pitcher who pitched at least 100 innings this year.

However, Slowey also struck out his share of hitters, accumulating 123 strikeouts. But what’s more, Slowey appeared to improve his strikeout rate as the season wore on.

In his first ten starts of the season, Slowey sported a solid 4.37 ERA, and had walked only nine batters in 57 innings. However, true to scouting reports, had struck out only 39 – for a rate of 6.15 per nine. This was more than enough to get by, considering his incredibly low walk rate, but it was far from dominant.

But then Slowey had a start in San Diego.

I don’t know if there is a pitcher in baseball better suited for PETCO Park than Kevin Slowey – a flyball pitcher who attacks the strike zone. Slowey predictably pitched very well on June 24 in San Diego, allowing no runs or walks in six innings, and striking out seven. And for only the second time all season, Slowey induced ten swinging strikes in his start.

Slowey carried this into his next two starts, inducing seventeen and ten swinging strikes in them, respectively. And from that point forward, Slowey was a different pitcher.

Starting with his June 24 start in San Diego, Slowey finished the season with a 3.77 ERA in 102 innings. He still walked a phenomenally low amount of hitters – 15, to be exact – but his strikeouts went up. In those 102 innings, he struck out 84 batters, for a rate of 7.41 per nine. He remained homer-prone, allowing 12 long balls during the stretch, but the increase in strikeouts was coupled with an increase in the amount of swinging strikes he induced as well.

Before June 24, batters swung and missed at 7.9% of Slowey’s pitches. After (and including) June 24, batters swung and missed at 9.2% of his pitches. During this time, Slowey received approximately the same percentage of called strikes. In other words, batters were taking pitches for strikes just as often, but were swinging and missing more often, leading to additional strikeouts.

It would be okay for a pitcher who walks as few batters as Slowey to only strike out six batters per nine. But if a pitcher like Slowey can get that strikeout rate up over seven per nine, then we’re talking about someone with a good chance of posting an ERA around 3.50 (or lower) – even with his propensity to give up homers. Furthermore, Slowey’s absurdly low walk rate helps keep his WHIP low, giving him increased value in fantasy leagues.

Slowey has always been a fly ball pitcher – almost 45% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and, since he doesn’t throw particularly hard, he is almost certainly going to be prone to the long ball. However, he’s so stingy with free passes that many of the homers hit against him are going to be solo shots. Furthermore, if he can maintain the pace at which he was striking batters out during the second half of the season, he will curtail his homer total simply because batters won’t put as many balls in play.

Think of Kevin Slowey as someone who can post an ERA of around 4, a WHIP of around 1.15 or 1.20, with a strikeout rate of approximately six batters per nine (which equates to 133 Ks over 200 innings) who plays on a good-but-not-great team. It’s unlikely that Slowey will be much worse than this.

However, if the Slowey we saw in the second half of the season is for real, he is capable of putting up an ERA of around 3.40-3.60, with a WHIP in the 1.10 range and a strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine (equaling 167 Ks over 200 innings). This may be optimistic, but Slowey has shown that he is capable of putting up these numbers for an extended period of time.

Draft Slowey expecting the conservative set of numbers – which are still pretty good. But don’t be surprised if he exceeds those expectations.

Indians lefty Scott Lewis is a tough guy to figure out. A look at his minor league track record would lead one to believe that he’s on the fast track to big-league success. If you watch him pitch, however, you’re likely to shrug your shoulders and say, “eh, he’s okay.” A 3rd round selection out of Ohio State in 2004, Lewis underwent Tommy John surgery in college and battled biceps tendinitis in the minors. But when he’s been on the mound, he’s posted some eye-popping statistics.

Lewis scarcely pitched in 2004 and 2005 as he battled injuries, but he tore up the High-A Carolina league in 2006. He posted a 2.14 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) in 115.2 IP, with 9.57 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9. That 4.39 K/BB was enough for Baseball America to rank Lewis as Cleveland’s 7th-best prospect. Noting that he was on a 60-75 pitch count limit following two lost seasons, BA rated Lewis’ curveball as “the best in the system with true 12-6 movement.” However, they also noted concern with Lewis’ fastball velocity, which dipped as low as 84 MPH and topped out in the high-80’s. Said BA, “It remains to be seen how Lewis’ below-average velocity will work against more advanced hitters.”

In 2007, Lewis would move up to the Eastern League (AA), where he would continue to post impressive peripherals. He struck out 8.09 batters per nine innings and issued 2.27 BB/9. He posted a 3.48 FIP ERA in 134.2 IP. The main difference between Lewis’ 2006 and 2007 seasons was his home run rate. While the flyball-oriented hurler surrendered just 0.23 HR/9 in ’06, that figure increased to a more reasonable 0.87 HR/9 in 2007. Following the season, BA would actually knock Lewis down to 16th in the Indians’ farm system. Citing his finesse style and a loss of confidence in his once-promising curveball, BA noted that Lewis was a “command/control deceptive left-hander.” A guy with an 86-90 MPH fastball and a decent changeup, BA pegged Lewis as a “4th or 5th starter.”

Lewis would return to the Eastern League to begin the 2008 season, tossing 73.1 frames for Akron while compiling a 2.30 FIP ERA. Lewis’ K rate declined somewhat (7.49 K/9), but he walked next to no one (1.10 BB/9) and benefitted from a very low 0.25 HR/9. Cleveland would promote Lewis to AAA Buffalo in the second half of the season, where posted similar peripherals (7.88 K/9, 1.5 BB/9) and a 3.03 FIP ERA in 24 innings. He would also toss 24 innings in his big league debut, making a decent first impression by posting a 4.80 FIP ERA. Lewis struck out 5.63 hitters per nine innings and walked 2.25 per nine. In his time with Cleveland, Lewis’ fastball came in at an average of 87.3 MPH. In addition to the fastball and 78 MPH changeup, Lewis utilized a 77 MPH slider and a 73 MPH curve.

So, what can we expect of Lewis in 2009 and beyond? His minor league track record is quite good, but we are also talking about a guy who throws 87 MPH on a good day, with flyball tendencies to boot. Will hitters continue to flail at Lewis’ changeup, or will they learn to lay off of it and make him use his mild heater? Will the home run bug bite him at the highest level of competition? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system offered an eclectic mix of possible outcomes for Lewis’ career before last season. Among Lewis’ most comparable players were Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf on the positive side, and Casey Fossum on the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with Lewis in 2009. Finesse, flyball lefties generally don’t fare well in the DH league.

In 2008, Cliff Lee won the AL Cy Young by posting a 2.54 ERA and winning 22 games. Of course, the win total is somewhat out of his control – Roy Halladay won “only” 20 games despite pitching 23 more innings for a better team. But Lee’s 2.54 ERA came coupled with a 170/34 K/BB ratio in 223 innings. Lee’s rate of 1.37 walks per nine innings was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball.

Furthermore, Lee didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of good luck. His BABIP was .305, and he stranded 78.3% of the runners who reached base against him (a high number, yes, but remember: good pitchers are going to strand more runners than bad ones, simply because they have a better chance of getting any individual hitter out). However, Lee was fortunate to only give up 12 homers, as only 5.1% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will almost surely rise next year.

Lee posted an impressive 2.83 FIP this year. However, his xFIP – which regresses home run rate back to league average – was 3.69: still excellent, but much higher than his FIP.

Lee’s tRA and tRA* follow similar patterns: his tRA (which is not regressed) was 2.87, but his tRA* – which regresses things like home run rates – was 3.81. For those unfamiliar with tRA*, you subtract .40 to put it back on an ERA scale. So the ERA-equivalent of Lee’s tRA* was 3.41.

And 3.41 sounds like an appropriate approximation for what to expect from Lee next season. There’s little reason to think his newfound control will not continue next season (although he may not have the lowest walk rate of any starter), and the fact that he combines this impeccable control with an above-average amount of swinging strikes (7.9%) bodes quite well for him. He will almost certainly give up more homers, as the rate of fly balls becoming homers this year was unsustainably low.

Furthermore, while the Indians should be a good team, don’t get suckered in to thinking that Lee is going to win more games than a “normal” front-of-the-rotation pitcher. Yes, Lee should once again be good and yes the Indians should win a lot of games, but it’s a lot more likely that Lee will win 14-17 games, rather than 20+.

Cliff Lee is probably going to be one of the better pitchers in the American League once again, and should be valued as such. However, he is extremely unlikely to repeat his 2.54 ERA, and is also unlikely to even post an ERA under three. Lee is good, but be very careful about overvaluing him on draft day.

Andrew Miller may have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball in 2008.

Miller posted a 5.87 ERA in 107 innings, and eventually earned a ticket back to triple-A. However, Miller’s BABIP was .346 – fourth highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. His LOB% was 59.9% – second highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. While BABIP and LOB% are correlated – if you give up more hits on balls in play, you’re less likely to strand runners on base – it’s not an exact correlation. For example, Miller’s LOB% was lower than the three pitchers who posted a worse BABIP this year.

The combination of Miller’s awful BABIP and awful LOB% will probably make this next statement not terribly surprising, but interesting nonetheless:

Andrew Miller had the largest discrepancy between his FIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball who pitched at least 100 innings.

Miller’s FIP was 4.00, while his ERA was 5.87. There is no logical reason why Andrew Miller’s FIP should “overrate” him – more likely, Miller simply experienced a large confluence of random variation, leading him to give up many more runs than he “should” have.

Miller’s 89/57 K/BB ratio was less than desirable, but the high amount of strikeouts does bode rather well for him. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 45.9%, to be exact – but his track record suggests that this number may go up, thereby reducing the number of homers he allows.

I am not suggesting that Andrew Miller is going to morph into a fantasy ace next season. However, his 5.87 ERA is probably going to completely scare away many people. You, the astute fantasy player, will understand that Miller suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck last year and is likely to see his ERA fall simply due to regression. A guy who strikes out 7.5 batters per nine and has an ERA around 4.20 is valuable, especially if he can be had very late in drafts. Furthermore, Miller has even more upside beyond that (although it’s rather unlikely that he’ll reach it in 09).

Andrew Miller is no ace (at least not yet), but he’s a heck of a lot better than his 2008 number suggest.