The Big Unit: A Fantasy Value

The prospect of a soon-to-be 300 game winner and future first-ballot hall of famer being undervalued sounds pretty silly. But free agent Randy Johnson may just fit the bill at this stage of his career. If reports are to be believed, Johnson is willing to cut his $16 million salary nearly in half to remain in Arizona, but the cash-strapped D-Backs do not appear interested. At $8-10 million for what would likely be a one-year deal, Johnson would be an absolute bargain in a pitching market that figures to see some exorbitant long-term signings. The Big Unit is also likely to be a big bargain on draft day.

Many were ready to write Johnson off following the 2007 season. After all, he had posted a 5.00 ERA with the Yankees in 2006, and then missed the better portion of the 2007 campaign following back surgery.

The problem with that thinking was, Johnson’s peripheral stats never took the big hit that his Bronx ERA suggested. Rather, he posted an incredibly low 61.8% Strand Rate (LOB%) in 2006, 13% below his career average. Johnson’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) remained a steady 4.27, as he posted rates of 7.55 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He was a bit homer-prone (1.23 BB/9), but Johnson’s overall package of skills remained strong. In an injury-shortened 2007, Johnson would toss just 56.2 innings. However, he showed no signs of decline before the back injury sidelined him, compiling a 3.20 FIP ERA. He struck out 11.44 batters per nine innings and issued 2.06 BB/9.

In 2008, Johnson would recover and take the mound for 30 starts, turning in another fine season. In 184 IP, The Big Unit posted a 3.76 FIP ERA, with a solid 8.46 K/9 and just 2.15 BB/9. Home runs were still a slight issue (1.17 HR/9), but Johnson turned in a remarkably strong performance for any pitcher, much less for a guy in his mid-40’s. To illustrate how strong Johnson’s 2008 season was, here are his ranks among all starters in some major categories:

K/9: 11th
BB/9: 24th
K/BB: 10th
FIP ERA: 28th

In all probability, Johnson remains one of the top 30 starters in the game. He may no longer sling his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90’s (90.8 MPH in 2008), but he has compensated by adding a nasty split-finger pitch in addition to his trademark slider. As his heater has lost some hop, Johnson has gone from throwing his splitter 2.2% of the time in 2005 to 13.4% in 2008.

A look at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows that while The Big Unit’s fastball may have lost some velocity, it remains a plus pitch. Johnson’s heat has a ton of horizontal movement (10.21 inches; the average fastball has 5.46 inches of horizontal break) and a decent amount of vertical break as well (7.76 inches). That newfound splitter is a good complementary pitch, as it dives about four inches lower in the zone than Johnson’s fastball. Combined with his slider, Johnson can still effectively work up/down and in/out, harnessing all quadrants of the strike zone. Opponents found him to be plenty hard to hit, as Johnson’s 78.2 Contact% was 18th-lowest among starting pitchers.

There are surely more inherent risks with a 45 year-old hurler who has undergone knee and back surgery over the past few seasons, but there are next to no signs of a degradation in performance here. Randy Johnson is without question one of the best starting pitchers of this generation. However, let’s not plan the date for his Cooperstown speech just yet: The Big Unit can still bring it.