Archive for Starting Pitchers

Remember when Fausto Carmona looked like Cleveland’s ace-in-waiting? As a 23 year-old back in 2007, Carmona compiled a 3.94 Fielding Independent ERA in 215 innings pitched. The Dominican Republic native employed a devastating, hard sinker (93.5 MPH) that generated groundballs by the bucketful (64.3%, bested only by Derek Lowe). That extreme worm burning, coupled with a passable strikeout rate (5.73 K/9) and fairly sharp control (2.55 BB/9) led many to believe that the 6-4, 230 pounder could be headed for a Lowe-esque career path, minus the years of relief work and long wait to crack the starting rotation.

These days, though? Carmona looks more Sean Lowe than Derek Lowe.

Carmona’s 2008 season was marred by a hip injury that limited him to 120 innings. His FIP climbed nearly a full run, up to 4.89. While he still kept his infielders on their toes (63.5 GB%), his K rate fell to 4.33 per nine innings. Far more troubling was his total lack of control: Carmona’s walk rate soared to 5.22, the highest figure among all starters tossing at least 120 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted from 2.25 in 2007 to a Daniel Cabrera-like 0.83 in 2008. Ironically, Cabrera (1.06 K/BB) actually beat Carmona, who ranked dead last in K/BB ratio among starting pitchers.

Entering 2009, there still remained hope that a mended Carmona would round into his 2007 form. But with each passing, disappointing outing, that looks less and less likely. In 58.2 innings, the 25 year-old owns a wretched 5.62 FIP, the product of 5.37 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9 (Carmona again brings up the rear among qualified starters in walks per nine innings and ranks second-to-last in K/BB ratio. Thanks, Jon Garland.)

Carmona’s collapse has been stunning, both for its suddenness and his age. Like the recently DFA’D Cabrera, Carmona is a young man who has seemingly lost every mote of consistency and talent that made him one of the more impressive young hurlers a few seasons ago. Relying heavily upon a sinking fastball, Fausto has lost velocity on the offering since his banner ’07 season:

2007: thrown 75% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2008: thrown 80.9%, 92.8 MPH
2009: thrown 81.4%, 92.5 MPH

Only Colorado’s Aaron Cook (86.6%) goes to his sinker more often than Carmona among starters. Disturbingly, that once-hellish pitch is now decidedly below-average. Take a look at Carmona’s not-so-turbo sinker, through Fan Graphs’ new pitch linear weights section. Below are Fausto’s run values for his fastball per 100 pitches, from 2007 to 2009 (a positive number indicates that a pitch saves more runs than average per 100 pitches, while a negative figure indicates that the pitch is below average):

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -1.52

Over the past few years, Carmona’s sinker has lost over two runs per 100 pitches in value. When that’s your bread-and-butter offering and a pitch thrown over three-quarters of the time, you have a serious problem on your hands.

Locating just 44.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average), Carmona has seen opponents become increasingly content to just keep the bat on their shoulders. Predictably, his three-year down slope in placing his offerings in the zone has coincided with fewer and fewer hacks by opponents:

2007: 51.4 Zone%, 47.9 Swing%
2008: 50.8 Zone%, 45.1 Swing%
2009: 44.5 Zone%, 42.9 Swing%

Carmona’s fall has been as severe as any pitcher’s in recent years, as he’s gone from a hurler worth 4.3 Wins in 2007 to a guy who’s just keeping his head above the replacement level waters in 2009 (0.2 WAR so far). In what’s shaping up to be another disappointing summer in Cleveland, Carmona’s devolving from organizational pillar to pinata ranks as one of the most bitter pills to swallow. Maybe those midges were a warning sign.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

As a pitch-to-contact starter playing in front of lead-gloved fielders, Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates went together about as well as oil and water.

Duke zoomed on to the scene back in 2005, posting a promising 2.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio as a 22 year-old. While his 1.81 ERA and a low HR/FB rate (4.5%) in 84.2 innings led to some outsized expectations, Duke had plenty going for him. Whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings, the Texan also kept the free passes in check (2.44 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) checked in at a quality 3.66.

As a full-time rotation member in 2006, Duke compiled a 4.47 ERA in 215.1 innings. His XFIP climbed to 4.60, as his K rate fell below five (4.89) and his walk rate rose (2.84). Duke was putting the ball in play more often, and his BABIP rose from .296 to .327. The Bucs (28th in team UZR/150) were awful with the gloves in ’06, featuring defensive disasters at multiple positions (Jeromy Burnitz still sends Dave Littlefield postcards for that cool $6.7 million he pulled down that year).

Duke’s young career reached its nadir the following year. His ability to fool hitters completely evaporated as he dealt with left elbow tendinitis. He posted a grisly 5.53 ERA in 107.1 innings. Things certainly weren’t going swimmingly (he K’d just 3.44 batters per nine innings with a 4.79 XFIP), but a .360 BABIP would be enough to make any pitcher curse his fate. Overall, Pittsburgh was about league-average defensively (18th in team UZR/150). But when Duke took the hill, they fielded about as well as a team of Adam Dunn’s.

2008 followed a similar pattern, though not quite as extreme. With a .327 BABIP and 4.23 whiffs per nine innings, Duke compiled a 4.82 ERA (4.81 XFIP). The Bucs were again among the fielding laggards, placing 22nd in team UZR/150.

After a couple years of listless showings with the leather, the Pirates have actually been a plus defensive team in 2009. Pittsburgh ranks third in the majors in UZR/150, trailing only the surprising Brewers and the Rays (who orchestrated a historic defensive turnaround last season). Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, Jack Wilson and Andy LaRoche are all on the plus side, with Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth a few runs in the negative. Only Freddy Sanchez (-8.6 UZR) is deep in the red among regular starters.

With better support behind him, Duke has posted a .268 BABIP in 2009. In 72 frames, his ERA sits at 2.75. He’s more than likely not going to keep up that level of performance (his XFIP is 4.34), but Duke has a 2.47 K/BB ratio this year after failing to crack two over the past three seasons.

Duke is pitching fairly well, and he’s now being aided by his defense instead of watching them boot easy plays and fail to track balls that most big leaguers would reach. With an 88 MPH fastball and a kitchen-sink approach that entails more deception than brute force, Duke will always be reliant upon the quality of the fielders behind him. Luckily, those guys are picking him up where previous squads hung him out to dry.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9

Bronson Arroyo – In 10 games this season, Arroyo has a 5.12 ERA and seven wins. That seems less than likely. But Arroyo has been pitching very well since allowing nine runs in one inning on May 6th. He has gone 3-1 in his last four games with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP. He is currently active in only 43 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him in the lineup this week.

Joe Blanton – After nine games he has a 6.14 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. But the strikeouts are better than they’ve ever been (8.42 K/9), he has had a little bit of bad luck with a .354 BABIP and 4.80 FIP and he is coming off his best start ever as a member of the Phillies, with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs in seven innings. Blanton’s HR/9 sits at an ugly 1.58 but he has road games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and at Dodger Stadium this week. The Dodgers are 12th in the National League in home runs meaning this is a good week to get Blanton active.

A.J. Burnett – He is coming off his best outing of the season but faces a tough road this week with home games versus Texas and Tampa Bay. Burnett has allowed 10 home runs in 64 IP this year and goes up against a Rangers squad that is tied for first in the American League in homers and a Rays team that ranks third. Furthermore, Yankee Stadium has a 1.565 simple HR factor so far this year. It might be a good time to get him out of the lineup for a week.

Zach Duke – Since giving up six runs in his third start of the year, Duke has been remarkably effective, with a 2.66 ERA in his last seven starts. But it seems like he has exceeded expectations. Duke has induced fewer ground balls this season, yet has seen his HR/9 drop to 0.50. Also, he has a nifty 1.11 WHIP despite a 1.46 career mark in the category. At some point these marks are going to regress. Duke has a tough road with a matchup against Johan Santana and a trip to Houston, where he has never won in five games at Minute Maid Park.

Jarrod Washburn – Following two disappointing starts, Washburn got back on track with six shutout innings versus Oakland in his last outing. This week he gets two starts at Safeco Field, where two of his three wins have come this season. Overall, Washburn still has a very nice 3.45 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Owned in just 32.2 percent of ESPN leagues, Washburn could be a good pickup for someone looking to strike paydirt this week with a two-start pitcher.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Oswalt, Saunders, Chamberlain, Kershaw, Slowey, Wolf, Myers, Matsuzaka, Jimenez, Floyd, Porcello, Volquez, Parra, Kawakami, Sonnanstine, Cook, L. Hernandez, Wellemeyer, Davies, Cahill, Hill, A. Miller, Snell, Wells, Colon, Suppan, Holland, Correia, Huff, Buckner, Paulino, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 7 and how they did.

Nolasco –Advised to sit. 2 K, 36.00 ERA, 4.50 WHIP (1 start)
Baker – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Martis – Advised to sit. 4 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP (2)
McCarthy – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 1.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 8 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2)

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The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.

The Tampa Bay Rays organization has promoted LHP David Price from triple-A and he will start against Cleveland tonight (May 25). He’s taking the roster spot of veteran LHP Scott Kazmir, who was placed on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain. Many baseball experts expected Price to begin the season in Tampa Bay, but the organization claimed it was in Price’s best interest to get some more experience in the minors. Some cynics have suggested that the organization was merely trying to save money by delaying Price’s arbitration eligibility and free agency. Our very own Dave Cameron chimed in on this very topic back at the beginning of April.

With the formerly-first-place Toronto Blue Jays faltering, Tampa Bay is only four games out of first place, despite playing .500 ball to this point and being in fourth place in the American League East. One could look at the AL East race and say that Price’s presence on the Major League roster could have made a significant difference in the standings. The Rays are 10th in ERA, and third in most walks allowed, but the pitching as a whole has been mostly middle-of-the-road statistically speaking. In the starting rotation, though, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir have struggled mightily this season. Sonnanstine has allowed 63 hits in 46.1 innings, he has a 6.60 ERA and the club has won only four of his nine starts. Kazmir has allowed 60 hits in 45.2 innings with a 7.69 ERA. The club has won five of his nine starts. He’s lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball, and he’s not having any luck mixing in the slider more often.

Price, though, has not looked overly sharp himself this season – especially compared to his 2008 season, which ended with him pitching in the Major League playoffs. The left-hander had a 3.93 ERA (4.71 FIP) in triple-A and he allowed 28 hits in 34.1 innings of work. His walk rate was high at 4.72 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.17 K/9. Along with the control issues, his home run rate (1.31 HR/9) is also troubling. It could, though, be a case of under-performing after the letdown of being demoted to triple-A to begin the year. In his last minor league start, with whispers of an impending promotion, Price worked five no-hit innings with two walks and nine strikeouts against the Rochester Redwings squad (Minnesota’s affiliate).

If that is the case, and 2008 Price emerges in the Majors this year, then the Rays have a bright, shining beacon of hope for the 2009 season. He also has the potential to greatly aid fantasy baseball owners desperately in need of some strong pitching performances.

It’s only May – so it’s still anybody’s ball game.

Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KC – Greinke
ARI – Scherzer
TB – Price
SEA – Washburn
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Owings

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Kazmir
NYY – Hughes
TOR – Cecil
ARI – Augenstein
SEA – Jakubauskas
BAL – Eaton

Greinke gave up a season-high eight hits in his last outing but also notched his ninth Quality Start in nine games.

Scherzer has been pitching well with four Quality Starts in his last five games. The one poor outing came at Chase Field when he gave up three home runs to the Nationals. Scherzer has a 6.75 ERA at home this year compared to a 1.86 ERA in neutral road parks. Scherzer has two home games this week.

Price was hardly overwhelming in eight games in Triple-A but gets the call with Kazmir going on the DL. He was 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA at Durham. Price had an impressive 9.17 K/9 but a poor 4.72 BB/9.

Washburn started the year with three Quality Starts but since then he is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA. Washburn had his last start pushed back due to tightness in his left knee, although the Mariners do not consider the injury a serious one.

Tallet has a 4.17 ERA in seven games as a starter, compared to a 6.14 ERA in four games as a reliever. After a 10-run outing in his final start in April, Tallet has reeled off four straight Quality Starts and has a 1.000 WHIP in that time frame.

Owings’ strikeouts are down nearly two per game from a year ago. He is also getting fewer swings out of the strike zone and batters are making better contact than they were last season. Owings has failed to complete six innings in five of his eight starts this year.

San Francisco Giants righty Matt Cain is a hurler who many considered to be on the cusp of a major breakout. His performances during his first three years in the rotation were very good, to be sure, with Fielding Independent ERA’s ranging from 3.78 to 3.96 and strikeout-to-walk ratios hovering slightly over 2/1. Still, the sturdy 6-3 frame, low-90’s gas, hard slider, slow curve and changeup hinted that Cain could possibly reach another level.

If one were to take just a quick glance at Cain’s 2009 season, that breakout would appear to be in progress. After all, the 24 year-old’s notoriously poor run support that produced Maroth-like Win-Loss records hasn’t doomed him, as he sits at 4-1. His ERA checks in at a tidy 2.65 to boot. He’s an ace now, right?

Not so fast. Cain might possess the shiny W-L tally and a lower ERA than Lincecum, but in most respects, he has actually taken a step backward this season. Cain’s FIP is 4.85 in 51 frames, by far the highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.45 batters per nine innings in 2006 and sat around the mid-sevens in ’07 and ’08, is just 6.00 in 2009.

The K rate wouldn’t be the end of the world if Cain had made commensurate improvement in terms of limiting the free passes. Unfortunately, he’s as wild as ever: 4.41 walks per nine innings. Batters seem to have taken note of Cain’s inability to locate, as opponents have offered at just 18.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (22.7% career average, 24.3% MLB average).

A true power pitcher when he broke into the big leagues (sitting between 93.2-93.4 MPH from 2005 to 2007), Cain now has a lower-octane fastball (91.6 MPH). In addition, his slider doesn’t appear to be the same knock-out pitch these days.

While it hasn’t surrendered any velocity, Cain’s slider isn’t moving away from righty batters like it used to. In 2007, the breaker tailed away from righties 3.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In 2008, that figure dipped to 3.4 (the league average for a righty pitcher) and comes in at just 2.6 inches this season.

The negative trend with Cain’s slider is also apparent through FanGraphs’ new pitch linear weights section (seriously, how cool is this stuff?): the slider was 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches in ’07, 1.23 in ’08 and actually comes in at -2.33 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Not coincidentally, Cain’s usage of the pitch has declined each year: 16.5% in 2007, 13.8% in 2008 and 10% this year. Those sliders have been replaced with more curveballs (from 8.6% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2009), which come in as below average (-0.76 runs per 100 pitches this season, -1.92 per 100 pitches in 2008).

Given these trends, it’s not especially surprising to see that Cain’s performance against same-side batters has trailed off (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Cain vs. RHB:
2007: .224/.291/.370
2008: .235/.312/.378
2009: .293/.404/.500

None of this is to say that Cain is a bad pitcher, or that he won’t show improvement as the year goes on. However, his current levels aren’t anywhere near sustainable if he continues to post similar peripherals; he can’t continue to post a .257 BABIP or a near-90 percent strand rate. Cain is good, but he’s not the great pitcher that his surface stats would indicate. If you can cash in now by selling high, by all means do.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Fausto Carmona – In three of his four seasons in the majors, including this one, Carmona’s ERA has been above five. This year he has as many walks as strikeouts. And while his LD% (18.8) and FB% (24.4) look very good, they are the worst marks of his career. Instead of wondering if you should start him, perhaps you should be scanning the waiver wire looking for his replacement.

Scott Kazmir – He is owned in 95 percent of CBS Sports leagues and was a starter in 64 percent of them last week. And he’s been terrible in his last five starts. His velocity is down under 90 for the first time in his career, his command has gotten worse (5.72 BB/9) and his SwSTR% is nearly half of what it was a year ago, down to 6.4 percent. Move him to the bench so you don’t get stuck with two bad starts.

John Maine – While Johan Santana has been struggling for run support, the Mets’ bats come alive when Maine is on the mound. For the season, the Mets have scored 5.77 runs per game for Maine and in his last five games they’ve given him an average of 6.6 runs. Maine has pitched well in four of those last five games and has picked up three wins in that span. He gets two starts at home this week, facing the Nationals and the Marlins.

Sean Marshall – His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA due in large part to his poor HR rate. But Marshall faces the Pirates and the Dodgers this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Despite giving up five HR in his last four starts, Marshall has pitched well enough to give the Cubs a chance to win each of them.

Brad Penny – With an ERA above six, Penny hits the road this week to face Toronto, which leads the league in runs scored, and Minnesota, which just put up 20 runs in one game. Penny’s velocity is fine but he’s not getting nearly as many swings on balls out of the strike zone. In 2007 he had a 29 percent O-Swing% and this year it’s down to 17.5 percent. And when they do swing, he’s not getting as many misses, either, as his 5.1 percent SwStr% is a career-low. Not surprisingly, Penny’s 4.60 K/9 is the worst mark of his career.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Garza, Gallardo, Vazquez, Dempster, W. Rodriguez, Harang, Lester, E. Santana, Liriano, E. Jackson, Danks, Carpenter, Volstad, Millwood, Maholm, Meche, De la Rosa, D. Davis, Harrison, Sanchez, Hughes, Guthrie, Cecil, Lannan, Blackburn, Braden, Stults, Medlen, Moyer, Pavano, Anderson, Gaudin, Augenstein, Jakubauskas, Milton, Eaton.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 6 and how they did.

Slowey – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP (2 starts)
Masterson – Advised to start. 9 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start 5 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Zimmerman – Advised to start. 14 K, 8.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (2)
Hampton – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (1)

Prior to the start of the 2009 season, the thought of comparing Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson was ludicrous. Mets fans rolled their eyes when the club signed Hernandez while Giants fans were quite pleased when the team added Johnson. To support this belief, Johnson had an ADP of 141 while Hernandez did not crack the top 348 players listed over at Mock Draft Central.

Here were the fantasy stats for both players in 2008:

RJ – 11 W, 3.91 ERA, 173 K, 1.24 WHIP
LH – 13 W, 6.05 ERA, 67 K, 1.53 WHIP

To further drive home how big the gulf between these two players was last year, RotoTimes had Johnson with a $7.19 final dollar value compared to a minus $14.92 for Hernandez.

Right now each pitcher has made eight starts and here are their fantasy stats:

RJ – 3 W, 6.86 ERA, 42 K, 1.55 WHIP
LH – 3 W, 4.93 ERA, 25 K, 1.47 WHIP

RotoTimes values

RJ – minus $16.59
LH – minus $11.66

Many people believe that Johnson will turn things around while next to no one believes in Hernandez. With Johnson, they’ll point to his BABIP or his HR/FB and talk about regression or they’ll talk about other metrics and see how similar they are to last year and conclude that a return to the Johnson of old is just around the corner.

One area where there is a big difference is in pitch selection. Overall, Johnson threw 51.4 percent fastballs last year, compared to 48.8 percent this season. With his slider it is 40.4 percent this year compared to 35.2 percent in 2008. But if we look at what Johnson was doing at the end of last season, we get an even bigger difference. These numbers come from Dan Brooks’ wonderful site.

	FB	CH	SL	CB	SP
9/1	66	12	3	 	
9/13	61	8	9		
9/18	60	15	3	2	
9/23	54	10	26		5
9/28	65	11	4	1	
Pct     75	14	11	<1	<1

He was throwing his fastball nearly seven times as often as his slider. The two outings where he threw more than a handful of sliders, his average vertical break was over three. It was 3.43 on 9/13 and 3.03 on 9/23.

(Another thing that may jump out at you is that FanGraphs does not show Johnson throwing a changeup last year. My best guess is that what Brooks labels as a changeup FanGraphs categorizes as a splitter. This does not affect the fastball-slider ratio.)

Flash forward to this year and Johnson has been all over the map with the vertical break on his slider. His first three starts it was 2.89 then 5.54 then 2.84. And since then it’s been even more erratic. Here are Johnson’s starts since April 25th:

	IP	ER	BB	V-Break
4/25	3.1	2	7	1.79
5/1	7	0	0	4.16
5/6	5.2	7	3	2.16
5/11	5	4	0	2.53
5/16	4	7	0	2.22

If we look at the Pitch Type Linear Weights, we can see the deterioration of Johnson’s slider. Since an injury-shortened season in 2003, here are his yearly wSL (which stands for runs above average with his slider):

2004 – 32.5
2005 – 24.1
2006 – 14.9
2007 – 10.1 (injury shortened)
2008 – 5.2
2009 – negative 1.0

Johnson’s command was poor in April (13 BB in 19 IP) but very good in May (3 BB in 21.2 IP). His BABIP was .268 in April and .394 so far this month. Perhaps Johnson’s command and BABIP having an inverse relationship is an insignificant small sample size fluke. Or perhaps his slider is no longer a reliable pitch and he has to go back to throwing more changeups/splitters. Or maybe at age 45 he is done as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher.

One can count on the fingers of two hands the number of pitchers who have thrown 100 innings at age 45 in MLB history. Most of them are like Jamie Moyer, crafty soft tossers. The best comparison to Johnson is Nolan Ryan. Here are the fantasy stats for Ryan at age 44 and 45, when he made 27 starts both seasons.

1991 – 12 W, 2.91 ERA, 203 K, 1.006 WHIP
1992 – 5 W, 3.72 ERA, 157 K, 1.316 WHIP

All great pitchers reach the end of the road. Ryan was done after 13 starts and a career-high 4.88 ERA in 1993. If a pitcher in his prime had Johnson’s 2009 numbers after eight starts, regression would be the most likely occurrence. But perhaps this is not bad luck but rather the new level of performance for the Big Unit. Time will tell.

Now let’s look at Hernandez.

He had another fine outing last night, going seven innings and allowing just one run. The offense took the night off for him and he wound up with a no-decision in a game the Mets went on to lose. That brings the team’s record in starts by Hernandez to 5-3. He certainly pitched well enough to win last night and in another team loss, the bullpen gave up four runs and allowed an inherited runner to score that went on Hernandez’ record.

The alleged 34-year-old Hernandez, the pitcher no one wanted, has given his team a chance to win in seven of his eight games and he has four Quality Starts this season (Johnson: 2).

Hernandez claimed in Spring Training that his knee was 100 percent. This year his average fastball is up nearly a mile per hour (83.7-84.6). Additionally, Hernandez has thrown his slider more often (16.6%-21.2%) and with better results, as his wSL this season is 2.2 after being a negative 10.2 last year. This has led to a SwStr% of 5.5 in 2009 for Hernandez after it was 3.8 last year with Minnesota and 3.0 in Colorado.

With a .316 BABIP (career rate .310), 71.7 percent strand rate (career: 72.4), HR/9 of 1.18 (career: 1.05) and 4.65 FIP (career: 4.45), Hernandez has not been the recipient of a huge amount of luck. The numbers stand out in stark contrast to what he accomplished last year but the knee injury could at least partially explain 2008’s awful numbers.

Right now, Hernandez and Johnson are only worthwhile in deep NL-only leagues. Hernandez is healthy and basically pitching to his career averages in the four metrics listed above. There have been no reports of an injury to Johnson, but he is pitching far worse than was expected coming into the season. Before you repeat the regression mantra, track what he does with both his command and his slider in his next few outings.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.