The Price is (Finally) Right for Rays

The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.

The Tampa Bay Rays organization has promoted LHP David Price from triple-A and he will start against Cleveland tonight (May 25). He’s taking the roster spot of veteran LHP Scott Kazmir, who was placed on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain. Many baseball experts expected Price to begin the season in Tampa Bay, but the organization claimed it was in Price’s best interest to get some more experience in the minors. Some cynics have suggested that the organization was merely trying to save money by delaying Price’s arbitration eligibility and free agency. Our very own Dave Cameron chimed in on this very topic back at the beginning of April.

With the formerly-first-place Toronto Blue Jays faltering, Tampa Bay is only four games out of first place, despite playing .500 ball to this point and being in fourth place in the American League East. One could look at the AL East race and say that Price’s presence on the Major League roster could have made a significant difference in the standings. The Rays are 10th in ERA, and third in most walks allowed, but the pitching as a whole has been mostly middle-of-the-road statistically speaking. In the starting rotation, though, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir have struggled mightily this season. Sonnanstine has allowed 63 hits in 46.1 innings, he has a 6.60 ERA and the club has won only four of his nine starts. Kazmir has allowed 60 hits in 45.2 innings with a 7.69 ERA. The club has won five of his nine starts. He’s lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball, and he’s not having any luck mixing in the slider more often.

Price, though, has not looked overly sharp himself this season – especially compared to his 2008 season, which ended with him pitching in the Major League playoffs. The left-hander had a 3.93 ERA (4.71 FIP) in triple-A and he allowed 28 hits in 34.1 innings of work. His walk rate was high at 4.72 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.17 K/9. Along with the control issues, his home run rate (1.31 HR/9) is also troubling. It could, though, be a case of under-performing after the letdown of being demoted to triple-A to begin the year. In his last minor league start, with whispers of an impending promotion, Price worked five no-hit innings with two walks and nine strikeouts against the Rochester Redwings squad (Minnesota’s affiliate).

If that is the case, and 2008 Price emerges in the Majors this year, then the Rays have a bright, shining beacon of hope for the 2009 season. He also has the potential to greatly aid fantasy baseball owners desperately in need of some strong pitching performances.

It’s only May – so it’s still anybody’s ball game.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Christian
14 years ago

This is a tough request… but if Price is awesome tonight, do you look to sell high as a #2 starter on his credentials and ML performance, and conversely if he falters, do you try to buy low on his weak AAA performance this year and a bad start. What kind of numbers do you see for him for the rest of the year?