Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ATL – Lowe
LAD – Billingsley
CIN – Cueto
ANA – Lackey
STL – Lohse
ARZ – Garland
MIL – Bush
WAS – Detwiler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
ANA – Santana
CIN – Owings
ARZ – Augenstein
ATL – Reyes

Lowe has won his last four decisions and has a Quality Start in four of his last five games. He is walking a few more batters than you would like, but is making up for it with a fantastic HR/FB rate of five percent and a strand rate of 72.4 percent, his highest since 2002.

Billingsley has a Quality Start in all eight outings and has actually given up fewer home runs than Lowe, allowing just one HR in 54.2 innings.

Cueto is off to a fantastic start but his FIP (3.69) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA (1.93). His 89.6 percent strand rate is second in the majors among starters, trailing only Greinke.

Lackey gets the two-start week after being ejected after just two pitches in his season debut on Saturday. He struck out eight batters in 9.2 innings during two minor league rehab games at Triple-A. Lackey opened the season on the DL with a forearm strain.

Lohse is 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA at home this season and he gets two starts at Busch Stadium III this week, squaring off against Milwaukee and Kansas City.

Garland is the anti-Lohse, pitching much better on the road than at Chase Field. All five of his HR allowed happened at home. Meanwhile his road ERA stands at 1.35 in two games. He pitches at Florida and at Oakland this week.

Bush has nice numbers this season except for his HR/9 rate, which checks in at 1.53 after eight games. He has road starts at Houston and at Minnesota. According to ESPN park factors, Minute Maid Park has the third highest park factor for homers while the Metrodome ranks 19th.

Detwiler is a lefty who has hit 95 mph in the minors. Last year in the Hi-A Carolina League, he recorded a 53.4 percent groundball rate. Detwiler had an 0-3 record this year in Double-A, but he had a 2.96 ERA and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.

Kevin Slowey shows us that it’s not enough to just not walk guys. If your stuff is hittable, batters will earn their bases on the field.

That said, Slowey had a very nice year last year, and with a K/9 right around the league average (6.90 K/9), there was some hope that he would build on the campaign and take another step forward this year.

So far, fans and fantasy managers are still waiting for that step forward. Instead, Slowey’s strikeout rate has fallen almost a full run (6.02), and his 1.54 WHIP is full of dinks, dunks and blasts. It’s certainly not walks, as Slowey still sports an elite walk rate (0.89 BB/9). The question lingers: how much of this poor start is lousy luck and how much is due to mediocre stuff?

Luck has surely played a big part. His BABIP is .370 and his FIP is 4.44, so his ERA is a little bloated by the luck of the bounce. But even the secondary statistics can’t agree about his luck. He’s sporting a 35.4% infield fly ball rate, which is unsustainably lucky (it’s 15% for his career). Also, he’s stranding 76.6% of his baserunners, which is slightly lucky. And for a guy with a career home run rate over 1 per game, his 10.8% home run per fly ball rate is very neutral.

He’s also giving up a career high 24.1% line drive rate, which is a good spot to start talking about his stuff. With an 89 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, a 74 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, there’s just not enough differentiation in speed between his pitches to really keep the hitters off balance. He’s usually in the zone (see his walk rate), and his 91.3% contact rate in the zone puts him at 24th worst in the league in that category. (Teammate Glen Perkins ‘leads’ the league with batters making contact on 98% of pitches inside the zone, and Nick Blackburn is 23rd, so there’s something in the water in Minnesota, it seems.)

A quick look at some pitch F/X samples doesn’t provide too many clues. Slowey’s slider is actually breaking a couple inches more this year, and the rest of his stuff seems intact, with one major caveat. Slowey has lost almost a mile per hour on his fastball (89.9 to 89.2). His slider has lost one and a half miles per hour (85.7 to 84.1). Since he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and his stuff isn’t very fierce either, this slight velocity loss may be some of the reason for his poor start this year. Without more velocity history, it’s hard to tell if this is a temporary blip or not, but a peek at his next pitch f/x data would be a good idea for those thinking of acquiring him. A few ‘90’s on the gun would serve him well.

Another interesting question that arises when looking at Slowey’s numbers is if he should pitch outside the zone a little more. Batters are reaching on 26.2% of his offerings outside the strike zone, a number in line with his past (25.9% career). That number also puts him right next to such strikeout luminaries as Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy. Since batters make contact on 72.9% on those pitches, it may be possible that Slowey could expand his zone a little for better results.

Baltimore Orioles fans must live a peculiar existence these days, with one eye on the Jones’ and Markakis’ of the major league squad and the other eye fixed squarely on the minor league box scores, checking up on the Wieters’, Tillman’s and Matusz’s of the system.

It would be difficult to fault anyone for taking such an approach. Residing in baseball’s most challenging division, the O’s currently sit at 16-21, with a -30 run differential that ranks dead last in the American League. The main culprit has been the starting rotation. Calling upon fellows named “Eaton” and “Hendrickson”, Baltimore has gotten a collective 5.41 FIP from its starters, which ranks ahead of only the homer-happy Phillies group.

However, not all is bleak. The Orioles appear to have landed themselves a quality starter on the free agent market this past winter in Koji Uehara.

A Japanese import, Uehara came stateside with the reputation for pounding the strike zone. He’s done just that, with 7 unintentional free passes in 42.2 innings pitched (1.48 BB/9). The 34 year-old right-hander has been as adept as any starter in terms of getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first pitch. His 69.4 First-Pitch Strike Percentage is significantly above the 57.7% major league average, and ranks behind only Arizona’s Dan Haren (71.6%) among all starters.

While no one will mistake Uehara for a power pitcher, he’s no weakling out there either. The former Yomiuri Giant has managed to strike out 6.75 batters per nine innings, giving him a sterling 4.57 K/BB ratio that places 7th among starters. Uehara’s repertoire is expansive: in addition to an 87.2 MPH fastball (used 56.6% of the time), he unleashes an 82 MPH cutter (6.7%) and a 66.1 MPH curveball (81.7 MPH). Of course, his bread-and-butter offering is a dastardly 79.3 MPH splitter, a strikeout pitch thrown 32.5% of the time (our pitch data also shows him throwing a few changeups, but those are likely splitters as well).

That splitter offers great contrast to his rather modest heater. Uehara’s fastball actually has a significant amount of vertical movement for a pitch thrown at such velocity, with 12.2 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. His splitter, in contrast, has 6.3 inches of vertical movement (Pitch F/X classifies it as a changeup, but most everyone refers to it as a splitter).

Take a look at this release point chart from Uehara’s last start against the Yankees, on May 10th. Notice how his release points on the fastball and splitter (called a changeup here) overlap:

Now, note the pronounced difference between Uehara’s fastball and splitter, in terms of vertical movement (focus on the green and orange dots):

The two pitches come out of a similar arm slot, with about a 7 MPH difference in velocity. Yet, one drops a half-foot more than the other at the last moment. That’s deceptive, and has likely contributed to Uehara garnering a good deal of swings on outside pitches. His Outside-Swing Percentage sits at 30.8, above the 24.4% MLB average.

Uehara does have one flaw. Namely, his penchant for putting the ball in the air. As one might expect from a guy working up in the zone with mid-to-high-80’s cheddar, Uehara has posted one of the lowest groundball rates in the big leagues. His 26.3% mark is second only to Ted Lilly (23.6%). That flyball-centric approach has led to 1.27 home runs per nine innings.

Koji Uehara did not venture to the majors with near the same degree of fanfare as some recent Japanese players, but he has acclimated himself about as well as one could have hoped for. With a 4.04 FIP and a nasty splitter, Uehara will hold the fort until Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and company are ready for prime time.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.

It’s time for the inaugural edition of the RotoGraphs Mailbag. Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

In a 10-team mixed league I was offered Lincecum for Bruce, Baker and Joba. I’ve got plenty of depth at SP with Haren, Vazquez, Gallardo, Meche, Slowey and Ubaldo (we start 10 pitchers and have no bench). I’d replace Bruce with Fowler/Morgan. It’s not a keeper league.
Thanks guys, D.S.

While I’m always a proponent of consolidating talent in shallow leagues, this really tests the assumption that you should always take the best player in a trade. Tim Lincecum is by far and away the best player in this trade, that much is for sure. Amazingly, he’s upped his otherworldly strikeout rate and dropped his walk rate this year. In fact, with at .368 BABIP against, he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. Other than the fact that he led all pitchers under 25 in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points last year, there’s little to worry about.

But you don’t have the luxury of moving pitchers in and out. You need to field six or seven good starting pitchers, not just one or two and a bunch of spot starters. Dropping from Joba Chamberlain and Scott Baker to Lincecum alone will hurt your depth and cause you to go to the waiver wire for pitching. And starting pitching on the waiver wire is pretty barren these days. I say you hold on to your buy-low trio and reap the benefits of their return to grace.

As David pointed out, Jay Bruce is only on the way up from here. Chamberlain still has an elite strikeout rate himself (8.83 K/9), despite a step back. It is upsetting that his HR/9 almost doubled and his BB/9 is up a full walk, and also that his fastball is down almost three miles per hour over last year. People are reaching a lot less, too (20.5% this year, 26.3% career). (Wait, why was I recommending you keep him?) Baker, though, should rebound for sure. After giving up 9.5% HR/FB over his career (MLB average hovers around 10%), Baker is serving up home runs on 18.6% of his fly balls. Nothing else is out of order, so he should return to his customary value as that number falls.

Sure, none of these guys are Lincecum. But if you’re already playing Ubaldo Jimenez, it might get ugly quickly if you start looking for another pitcher on the wire. Perhaps more knowledge about the pitching on the wire would shift this trade into the ‘do’ category.

I am in a 12-team mixed head-to-head league and am considering trading Adam Lind for Shin-Soo Choo for a couple reasons: 1) I like the more balanced stats Choo brings to my team (more R and SB), and 2), I think Lind may be overvalued right now considering his hot start (BABIP of .384), and vice-versa for Choo. Based on Choo’s great second half last year, and improving BB% and K% this year, I think he has a decent chance of outperforming Lind even in HR and 2B and RBI. Would you make this trade?
Thanks, M. R.

Wow, you did a lot of the analysis for us here. But the question is still interesting, for another reason. These players are actually very similar: they are high-line drive hitters that should hit for solid averages. They both may have mediocre home run totals by the end of the year, as well.

The under-rated Shin-Soo Choo’s career fly-ball percentage is low for a power hitter, at 32%, but he’s settled in around 36% the last two years. His line drive rate has been nothing short of elite – it’s at 26.4% this year (8th in the majors), and 23.8% for his career. Line drive rate is positively correlated with batting average, and with the improving walk and strike-out rates, Choo is indeed a very safe producer in batting average. A 68% success rate on steals should mean he’ll comfortably continue to pilfer bags, too.

Adam Lind has the same low fly-ball percentage (33.5% career), and also sports a great line drive rate this year (25.4%). However, his career line drive rate is nowhere near Choo’s elite status at 19.8%, a figure that has largely been skewed by this year’s excellence. Because Lind has always sported a double-digit HR/FB rate, while Choo hasn’t, ZiPS likes Lind to hit another 14 homers while it likes Choo to total 14 for the year. However, with Lind’s low fly ball percentage this year (29.5%), he’ll have to start getting those infield flies (25.8%) out of the park for the power projections to be correct. He certainly is busting out, as Dave Cameron outlined here.

I think you’re right in taking the safer choice of the two. Choo’s added steals should make up for the five or six home runs he may lack compared to Lind. But I can’t help wondering: Can you upgrade somewhere else since Lind’s name is so hot right now? Add a second pair of players into the deal in order to cash in on Lind’s rising star and better current numbers.

Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester entered the 2009 season with enormous expectations. Fresh off a strong 2008 campaign in which he compiled a 3.64 FIP and progressively gained velocity as the season went on, the 25 year-old had plenty of hype surrounding him this offseason.

At first glance, Lester sure seems like a massive disappointment to this point. One might initially feel as though Lester has been shelled in 2009, given his losing record and 6.31 ERA. However, there are a number of reasons to expect a strong rebound from Boston’s co-ace.

Lester might have a grisly ERA, but his 4.35 Fielding Independent ERA is considerably sunnier. His strikeout rate has swelled to 10.67 per nine innings: that’s the sixth-highest rate among all starters. Also, his walk rate has remained stable (2.83 BB/9, compared to last year’s 2.82 mark, and his BB/PA is 7.1% in ’09 compared to 7.6% in ’08).

If anything, that FIP actually understates how good Lester has been: he has surrendered a whopping 1.74 home runs per nine innings, with an inflated HR/FB mark of 17.4%. HR/FB rates tend to hover around 10-11%, and Lester’s career rate sits at 9%. When that rate regresses, Lester’s ERA should drop like a lead balloon. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (to root out his poor luck of flyballs), Lester checks in at 3.79. That’s four-tenths of a run lower than last season, and ranks 6th among American League starters.

Lester has also has endured a spate of bad luck on balls put in play: his BABIP sits at .394, tied with fellow Red Sock and rebound candidate Josh Beckett for the highest mark in the big leagues. Boston isn’t performing especially well with the leather as a team (ranking 25th in UZR/150), but that figure will surely drop as time goes on.

This would be the perfect time to pilfer Lester from a frustrated owner. His numbers are superficially gruesome, but the underlying performance is actually very encouraging. If you own Lester, sit tight and wait for better days ahead. If not, then do all you can to acquire him on the cheap.

The San Francisco Giants organization recently promoted its two top pitching prospects from high-A ball to double-A. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner and right-hander Tim Alderson – 2007 first-round picks out of high schools – have both taken slightly different paths through the minors but they should spend the bulk of the 2009 season together in double-A.

Bumgarner was the Giants’ first pick (10th overall) in 2007 out of a North Carolina high school. He signed late that year and did not make his debut until 2008. He skipped over both short-season and rookie ball by going straight to low-A ball. The league was not a problem for the lanky lefty, who went 15-3 and lead the league with a 1.46 ERA (1.71 FIP). Bumgarner dominated by allowing just 111 hits and posting rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9.

In order to avoid the cold weather of the double-A Eastern League, the Giants assigned the now 19-year-old pitcher to high-A San Jose. He posted a 1.48 ERA (2.05 FIP) with 20 hits and just four walks allowed in five starts. With the weather warming in Connecticut, Bumgarner was promoted to double-A last week. In his first start for the Defenders on May 11, Bumgarner faced the last-place New Britain Rock Cats (Minnesota’s affiliate) and allowed just one run in six innings of work. He allowed seven hits and no walks, while striking out two batters.

Alderson, 20, was the club’s second pick (20th overall) of the six selections it had before the second round in 2007 (The club lost a lot of players to free agency the previous winter). He showed excellent stuff and above-average control, but teams were scared away by his mechanics and delivery. Obviously, though, with Tim Lincecum in the big league rotation, the Giants organization is not scared off by unique pitchers.

Alderson, now 20, also took his sweet time signing his first pro contract, although he did make three appearances late in 2007. He did not allow a run or a walk in five rookie-ball innings. Alderson allowed just four hits and struck out 12 batters. The right-hander was so impressive that the Giants challenged him with a 2008 assignment to high-A ball, a move almost unheard of amongst prep draftees in their first full season. He rose to the challenge and went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA (2.64 FIP) with 125 hits allowed in 145.1 innings of work. Alderson posted a walk rate of 2.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.68 K/9 during the course of the season.

Again, because of the weather in Connecticut, Alderson began 2009 by repeating high-A ball for five starts. Perhaps cruising a bit, the Arizona native allowed 31 hits and three walks in 26 innings. He also struck out 20. Along with Bumgarner, Alderson was promoted to double-A and he made his first start against the first-place New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto’s affiliate) on May 10. He did not allow a hit over 6.2 innings of work and was removed due to his pitch count. Alderson walked one and struck out 10 batters.

Bumgarner, 6’4” and 215 lbs, has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter. His repertoire includes a moving fastball that can touch the upper 90s. He has above-average command of the pitch. Because his fastball has been so dominating, his secondary pitches, a curveball and change-up, have suffered. He’ll definitely need to work on them to succeed in Double-A – and eventually the Majors.

Alderson, 6’7” and 220 lbs, has an average fastball at 88-92 mph but his command of the pitch makes it play up. His curveball is amongst the best in the minors and his change-up is improving. Alderson is also working to induce more ground balls, which he did effectively in his double-A debut. He could see the Majors by the end of the season – likely from the bullpen. He has the ceiling, though, of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Both pitchers have bright futures in the Majors and should be extremely valuable to not only the San Francisco Giants organization, but also fantasy baseball owners in keeper leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ANA – Weaver
DET – Galarraga
KCY – Hochevar
HOU – Paulino
SEA – Vargas
FLA – Koronka

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
PHI – Moyer
HOU – Hampton
FLA – Sanchez
DET – Miner
SEA – Silva
KCY – Ponson
ANA – Ortega

Weaver is having a fine season and is coming off a complete-game victory with eight strikeouts. He should be active in all formats but is facing a tough road with a matchup against the Red Sox and a road start in Texas.

In his last two starts Galarraga has given up 11 ER in 11 IP with five strikeouts and three home runs allowed. His 4.09 BB/9 is nothing to write home about, either.

Hochevar takes Soria’s spot on the roster and Ponson’s spot in the rotation. He was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Triple-A. Hochevar had 30 strikeouts and 10 walks in 40 innings at Omaha.

After getting bumped to the bullpen when Moehler came off the disabled list, Paulino returns to the rotation taking Ortiz’ spot. In three games as a starter, Paulino has a 2.55 ERA. In three games as a reliever his ERA is 21.00.

Vargas gets a spot in the rotation after picking up a win in two appearances as a reliever. He averaged 9.14 K/9 in 21.2 IP at Triple-A and has four strikeouts in 3.2 IP with Seattle.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Koronka punched out 24 batters in 27 innings at Triple-A. However, he gave up four home runs in that time span.

After last week’s bonanza of two-start pitchers, there are considerably fewer to choose from this week. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Kevin Slowey – Is off to a poor start this year and things do not look to get any easier this week. His first start is against the Tigers, against whom he has a 5.74 lifetime ERA. His second start is in New York, where the Yankees have hit 23 HR in 13 games. Slowey has a 1.57 HR/9 so far this year.

Justin Masterson – He has had two rough starts in a row and has to go on the road in both starts this week. But both starts he got beat up in his last inning and I like him this week in his matchups against Anthony Ortega and Carlos Silva.

Mike Pelfrey – He does not strike anyone out and the ERA is terrible. But after taking time off for a strained forearm, Pelfrey is 3-0 with 4.00 ERA. With starts at Citi Field and AT&T Park, Pelfrey should be able to keep the ball in the park and continue to lower his ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann – After allowing six runs in the first inning of his last start, Zimmermann pitched five scoreless frames and limited further damage, a nice thing to see from a young pitcher. Like Pelfrey he’s had trouble with the HR ball, but hopefully a road start in San Francisco followed by a home start will limit that damage.

Mike Hampton – After three solid starts to begin the year, Hampton has been knocked around in his last three outings. Expect that trend to continue with road starts at Colorado and at Chicago.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Peavy, Lowe, Burnett, Harden, Cain, Kershaw, Floyd, Johnson, Duke, Jimenez, Arroyo, Garland, Parra, Sonnanstine, Wellemeyer, Moyer, Sanchez, Pavano, Feldman, Cabrera, Miner, Park, Silva, Sowers, Ponson, Hendrickson, Ortega.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 4 and how they did.

Blanton – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a bad one, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 IP. In his next start, which was pushed back to Week #5, Blanton picked up win while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Jackson – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one, with 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday. He pitched six scoreless innings and then gave up five runs in the seventh.

Lohse – Advised to sit. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one. 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

Young – Advised to sit. Finally one who pitched two starts. He allowed 9 ER in 10 IP.

Zito – Advised to start. He made two starts, pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 3 ER.

As Eric Seidman astutely pointed out, baseball fans can become spoiled. Excellence, in some cases, is eventually taken for granted. Call it the Albert Pujols Effect: a guy laps the competition for so long, that we gradually come to view that brilliant player as mundane, boring; been there, done that.

Johan Santana certainly falls into this category. As a Minnesota Twin, the lefty changeup artist was a pitching cyborg. He posted Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.3 between 2004 and 2006. Santana “declined” to a mere 4.6 and 4.8 over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, which still put him among the best hurlers in the game. However, spoiled by his Bob Gibson-like reign of terror, some fans claimed that Santana was no longer special.

Oops. As it turns out, the 30 year-old is just fine, thanks. In 39.2 innings this season, Santana has punched out a jaw-dropping 54 batters (12.25 K/9), which is the highest rate of his career. His FIP sits at a microscopic 2.03, and he has compiled 1.7 WAR already. That’s tied with Tim Lincecum for the third-highest mark in the majors: only Dan Haren and Zack Greinke have provided more value to this point. How good has Santana been? Consider the following..

– Santana is generating swings on pitches thrown outside the strike zone 31.6% of the time. That’s the highest mark that we have for him dating back to 2002, and is nearly 5 percent higher than his 2008 figure.

– When they aren’t fishing for one off the plate, opposing batters are having plenty of difficulty making contact with pitches over the plate. Santana’s Z-Contact% (the percentage of contact made on pitches in the strike zone) is just 73.8%, compared to the 87.7% MLB average. Again, that’s the lowest mark for Santana dating back to 2002, and it’s the lowest rate among all starting pitchers.

– Santana’s overall Contact% of 68.3 is bested only by Rich Harden’s 66.1.

– With a 67.1 First-Pitch Strike%, Santana ranks sixth in the majors. He’s getting ahead 0-1 or ending the at-bat after the first pitch at his highest rate since 2005.

It may be fun and refreshing to try and identify the next batch of premium pitching talent, but let’s not forget about the current crop, either. Santana is primed for a huge season, not that his work over the last few years was anything short of superb.