Archive for Starting Pitchers

Tampa Bay Rays traded Mitch Talbot to Cleveland Indians as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal

26 years old and out of minor league options, Talbot gets a fresh start in going from the pitching-rich Rays to the Indians. After mid-season deals that landed Cliff Lee in Philly and Carl Pavano in Minnesota, Cleveland lacked a big league starter with an xFIP under 4.50.

Originally taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft by the Houston Astros, Talbot was swapped to Tampa (along with Ben Zobrist) in July of 2006 for Aubrey Huff.

The 6-2, 200 pound righty doesn’t overwhelm with stuff. Baseball America says his fastball sits 88-91, though with tailing action. Talbot also possesses a cut fastball, a curveball and a changeup. In the minors, the Utah prep product has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine innings, with 2.6 BB/9. He’s not known for blowing batters away, but Talbot limits the walks and keeps the ball on the ground (career 53.9 GB% in the minors).

Talbot toiled at AAA Durham from 2007-2009, though his ’09 season was shortened by an elbow injury. Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are his major league equivalent lines:

2007: 5.11 FIP, 5.82 K/9, 4.57 BB/9
2008: 3.76 FIP, 6.45 K/9, 2.59 BB/9
2009: 3.58 FIP, 6.46 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

CHONE projects a 4.91 big league ERA for Talbot in 2010, with 5.65 K/9, 3.35 BB/9 and 1.15 HR/9. He could work his way into the back of Cleveland’s rotation.

Detroit Tigers traded Dusty Ryan to San Diego Padres for a PTBNL or cash

Detroit’s 48th round selection in the 2003 draft, Ryan barely made a peep at the plate until 2008. The 6-4, 220 pound righty batter missed three months with a knee injury in 2007. Baseball America’s scouting report on Ryan mentions that the Tigers nearly moved him to the mound after he failed to crack the Mendoza Line in ’07.

Dusty’s career prospects bounced back in ’08, however, as he hit a combined .266/.346/.491 in 419 PA between AA Erie and AAA Toledo. He also made his major league debut and cracked a couple of homers. Ryan spent most of 2009 back in the International League, batting .257/.359/.455 in 235 PA.

The 25 year-old backstop displayed strong secondary skills the past two seasons. He walked in 10.5% of his plate appearances with a .225 ISO in 2008, then walked 12.3% with a .198 ISO this past year. Contact, however, has been elusive (29.1 K% in 2008, 27.2 K% in 2009). BA called Ryan “vulnerable to breaking balls.”

Due to those issues with breaking stuff and subsequently high punch out rates, Ryan’s MLE’s aren’t that sunny. Minor League Splits translated his 2008 work to a .212/.273/.370 big league triple-slash, with 2009’s minor league hitting equating to a .225/.308/.383 line. CHONE forecasts a .219/.299/.367 showing in 2010.

In San Diego, Ryan will likely back up Nick Hundley. The 26 year-old Hundley has a similar skill set to Ryan, with some plate discipline and pop but also a hearty whiff rate. In 505 career PA, Hundley holds a 90 wRC+, which means his offense has been 10 percent worse than average once league and park factors are taken into account.

The 2009 Atlanta Braves boasted one of the best starting rotations in the majors. Collectively, Atlanta starters ranked second in the NL in FIP and xFIP, with the fourth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Senior Circuit. Javier Vazquez had a career year. Jair Jurrjens pitched well, if not as well as his microscopic ERA suggests. Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe were serviceable, and Tim Hudson made a strong last-season return.

A rookie did his best to steal the show, however. Tommy Hanson has laid waste to pro hitters since the Braves inked the 6-6 righty as a 2005 draft-and-follow selection.

Following a stint at Riverside Community College, Hanson signed on the dotted line for a $325,000 bonus. He made his pro debut with Danville in Rookie Ball in 2006, where he posted rates of 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 51.2 innings.

In 2007, Hanson dominated hitters with 10.4 punch outs per nine innings in 133 IP between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League (his FIP was 4.14). His control left something to be desired (3.9 BB/9) . But as a 20 year-old with wicked stuff, Hanson moved up prospect lists. Baseball America ranked the big righty as the 9th-best talent in Atlanta’s farm system, praising his “nasty overhand curveball with tight spin and 12-to-6-break.”

Hanson went from a sleeper prospect to a household name in 2008, wiping the floor with batters between the Carolina League and the AA Southern League. In 138 frames, Hanson whiffed a combined 10.6 batters, with 3.4 BB/9. His FIP dropped nearly a run, to 3.18. As if that weren’t enough, he then took no prisoners in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League (49 K in 29 innings, with a 0.63 ERA). Hanson topped Atlanta’s prospect list entering 2009, with BA noting that the Braves viewed him as a “future ace.”

Opening the ’09 season at AAA Gwinnett, Hanson outclassed International League batters. In 66.1 IP, he struck out 12.2 hitters per nine innings, with just 2.3 BB/9 (2.42 FIP). He forced his way to the majors, getting the call-up in early June.

Hanson made 21 starts for the Braves, compiling a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 innings. He whiffed 8.18 per nine frames, while issuing 3.24 free passes per nine innings. Hanson’s xFIP (4.03) was higher than his ERA, as his home run per fly ball rate (6.9 percent) was well below the typical 10-12% range for pitchers. A fly ball pitcher (40.2 GB% in the majors in ’09, career 39.1 GB% in the minors), Hanson will likely cough up a few more homers next season.

Even so, Atlanta’s prized prospect was extremely impressive. Few pitchers consistently got ahead in the count like Hanson: his 63.4 first-pitch strike percentage placed 10th among starters tossing 120+ innings (the MLB average is around 58 percent). Hanson’s 77.2 percent contact rate wasn’t elite (80.5% MLB average), but it was comfortably above average. His 9.9 swinging strike percentage was excellent, though, placing 24th among starting pitchers (7.8% average for starters).

Coming up through the minors, Hanson was best known for a plus curveball and slider. He wasn’t bashful about breaking out the breaking stuff in the majors. Hanson threw his 92 MPH fastball about 58% of the time, with positive results (+0.28 runs per 100 pitches).

His 83 MPH slider (thrown 24 percent) and 75 MPH curveball (14 percent), however, paralyzed opposing batters. That slider was worth +1.79 runs per 100 tosses, and his curve was even more deadly (+2.36). Hanson didn’t use his 83 MPH changeup much, throwing it just 4 percent with little success (-1.85).

Using data from Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, we can get a better read on how Hanson gets the job done:

(Quick note about the MLB averages: Lefkowitz’s tool uses Microsoft Excel, and currently it only downloads a maximum of 5,000 pitches. So, the MLB averages aren’t based on ALL pitches thrown by righties. But this gives us a decent sample size.)

He does a great job of pounding the strike zone with his heater. The rates on the curveball and slider are fantastic: Hanson’s whiff percentage with his breaking stuff is through the roof, and he can locate those pitches to boot. The changeup, obviously, remains a work in progress.

Tommy shut down right-handers in 2009 (56 sOPS+, meaning he was 44 percent better than average against righties). He didn’t exactly struggle with southpaws (92 sOPS+, eight percent better than average). We’re splitting hairs here, but Hanson did occasionally lose the zone against opposite-handed batters:

Vs. RHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%:27.1
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 18.9
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 5.3
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 7.4

Vs. LHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%: 22.7
NL Avg. for RHP vs. LHB: 17.4
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 11.9
NL Avg. for RHB vs. LHB: 10.5

(Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference)

Tommy Hanson just turned 23 in late August, yet he’s remarkably polished for his age. He’s not afraid to hammer the strike zone with his fastball, slider or curveball, and those breaking pitches generate a dizzying number of swings and misses. Few pitchers, regardless of age, possess Hanson’s combination of power and command. Don’t hesitate to drop a high draft pick on Hanson in 2010.

Catch Brewers southpaw Manny Parra on a good day, and you’ll come away highly impressed. Low-90’s velocity, a quality curve and a sweet changeup/splitter? Maybe, you think, the Brewers’ rotation can amount to more than Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and “staff.”

But take in a Parra start when he’s having an off day, and you’ll be convinced that he’s taking pitching lessons from Charlie Brown. Walks and hits pile up with such rapidity that the official scorer gets carpal tunnel.

Parra was Milwaukee’s 26th round pick in the 2001 amateur draft, but don’t let that fool you. He was a draft-and-follow selection who pitched for American River Junior College in 2002, eventually inking with the Brewers for a cool $1.55 million bonus. Parra cobbled together a superb minor league track record, punching out 8.6 batters per nine frames with 2.5 BB/9.

Injuries, however, threatened to put the skids on his burgeoning career. Parra strained a pectoral muscle in 2003, missed a big chunk of the 2004 campaign with shoulder weakness and was shelved in July of 2005 with more shoulder troubles. Baseball America noted that Parra would “over-rotate in his delivery, slowing his arm down,” which led to “nagging injuries.” The 6-3 lefty went under the knife to repair a damaged rotator cuff in August of 2005.

Though all of those ailments put him behind the development curve, Parra’s stuff remained tantalizing. BA ranked him the second-best prospect in Milwaukee’s system prior to 2008, following a 2007 season in which he aced AA and AAA (a combined 8.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 106.2 IP, with a perfect game in AAA for good measure) while making his big league debut. Parra did suffer a broken thumb on a bunt attempt with the Brewers, but there weren’t any long-term consequences.

Given a chance to make 29 starts and three relief appearances for the Brewers in 2008, Parra whiffed 7.97 batters per nine innings while issuing 4.07 BB/9. He posted a 4.39 ERA, but his xFIP (3.85) was even more encouraging. Parra’s 78.2% contact rate was below the 80.8% MLB average, and he burned worms with a 51.6 GB%.

Manny needed to do a better job of not falling prey to hitter’s counts, as his 55.1 first-pitch strike percentage fell well short of the 58.6% big league average. But with better luck (his BABIP was .337, and his HR/FB% was 13.5), it was easy to envision Parra emerging as a strong sidekick to Gallardo.

Last offseason, former Rotographs contributor Peter Bendix wrote a glowing assessment of Parra’s talents. Here’s the money quote:

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Instead of improving in 2009, Parra compiled an ERA (6.36) that made Jeff Suppan Braden Looper blush. Parra was demoted to AAA Nashville from late June to early July. What in the name of Bernie Brewer happened?

In 140 frames, Parra whiffed 7.46 hitters per nine innings. His contact rate (79.6%) was a bit higher than in 2008. Plus, his swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 9.3% in ’08 to a still-solid 8.6% in 2009 (the MLB average for starters is 7.8%). Those figures help to explain the modest dip in his K rate.

Despite throwing more first pitch strikes (57.4 percent) and locating more of his pitches within the strike zone (49.5% in ’09, compared to 48.9% in ’08), Parra handed out 4.95 free passes per nine frames. Perhaps his outside swing percentage explains part of the increase, as it fell from 23.4 percent in 2008 to 22.2 percent this past year (25% MLB average). Though he didn’t get quite as many grounders, Parra still managed an above-average 48.1 GB%.

While clearly not pitching as well as he did in 2008, Parra’s xFIP (4.64) suggests that he also wasn’t the total pitching pinata that his ERA would suggest. His BABIP was obscenely high at .365, and his rate of stranding runners on base (64.7 percent) was below his career 68.3 percent mark.

What are we to make of Parra at this point? In 332.1 major league innings, his BABIP is a whopping .349. His xFIP (4.23) is nearly a full run lower than his actual 5.17 ERA.

There’s nothing in Parra’ batted ball profile that immediately jumps out. His career line drive rate is 20.3 percent. He is a groundball-slanted pitcher. Grounders do have a higher BABIP than fly balls.

But Parra’s career numbers on grounders are incredibly poor:

Parra’s career BAVG on groundballs: .290
Parra’s career SLG% on groundballs: .323

NL BAVG on groundballs, 2007-2009: .237
NL SLG% on groundballs, 2007-2009: .258

Parra’s batting average on grounders is 22 percent higher than the NL average, and his slugging percentage is 25 percent higher than the NL norm.

To be honest, I’m not sure what’s going on here. In its 2006 prospect handbook, Baseball America mentioned that Parra had a proclivity to throw “fat strikes,” leaving him “far more hittable than his stuff should allow.” Manny’s career BABIP in the minors was .321. BABIP figures tend to be higher in the minors, due to a lower level of defensive skill. But that’s still pretty high.

Despite all of the struggles, Parra’s curveball (+0.37 runs per 100 pitches), changeup (+0.39) and splitter (+1.48) actually rate as above-average pitches to this point. His fastball, though? Let’s just say Charlie Brown’s heat gets scorched less often.

Parra’s career run value with his fastball is -1.58 per 100 tosses. That’s fourth-worst among pitchers with 200+ IP over the past three years. When your heater’s effectiveness rates between that of Brandon Backe and Matt Morris, you have a problem.

Batters just don’t swing and miss much against the pitch. According to Joe Lefkwitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Parra’s whiff rate with his four-seam fastball was 4.6 percent in 2009. The MLB average whiff rate for lefty four-seamers, by contrast, was 6.1 percent.

Does Parra throw “fat” strikes? I’m no Pitch F/X maestro, but I did my best to try and quantify what might constitute a fat pitch. Pitch F/X keeps track of a number called “px.” Here’s Mike Fast’s definition:

px: the left/right distance, in feet, of the pitch from the middle of the plate as it crossed home plate. The PITCHf/x coordinate system is oriented to the catcher’s/umpire’s perspective, with distances to the right being positive and to the left being negative.

Home plate is about two feet across. I classified pitches that were five inches to either side of the middle of the plate as “fat” pitches (I got the idea from Pitch F/X guru Harry Pavlidis , who does something similar). Here’s what I got:

MLB average “fat” percentage for lefty four-seam fastballs: 35.1%
Parra’s “fat” percentage for four-seam fastballs: 38.5%

Manny does seem to leave his heater down the middle more often than most. Parra is a good example of simple velocity not being everything for a pitcher: he sits at 92 MPH with his fastball, but gets few whiffs and tends to catch too much of the plate.

At this point, Manny Parra is a mystery wrapped in an enigma stuffed in a Chorizo. Here are his projections for the 2010 season (Parra, not the Chorizo):

CHONE: 159 IP, 7.3 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
Bill James: 147 IP, 7.96 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.59 ERA

Now 27, Parra has the skill set to be a mid-rotation starter, perhaps with a little upside. But he’s going to have to do a better job of locating his fastball in order to succeed. His surface numbers in 2009 are abysmal, but don’t totally write him off. With better location and a little luck, he could be a decent bargain in 2010.

John Ely spent his first three professional seasons in the White Sox organization after they made him a third round pick in 2007 out of Miami (Ohio). The righthander is now part of the Dodgers organization after they netted him him in a deal for Juan Pierre. Luckily for Ely his new big league team plays in one of the games better run suppressing environments and the Dodgers also spend a fair amount of time in pitchers heaven, Petco Park. ESPN’s 2009 park factors has Dodger stadium at 0.857 (1.000 is average) which was the third best run suppressing environment in baseball last year.

Ely will still likely require more seasoning in the minors before reaching LA but he’s one to keep an eye for people in keeper and regular fantasy leagues.

I saw Ely pitch multiple times in the Carolina League during the 2008 season. Below is the scouting report I had on Ely:

“Has some max effort mechanics. But they create very good deception and they make it tough to pick up the ball out of his hand. Fastball ranges from 90-92 MPH. It should end up being at least an average MLB pitch. He’s got a plus-plus change up. He relies heavily on the pitch and it’s his bread and butter. His breaking ball needs a lot of work. It’s definitely his third pitch right now. If the breaking ball improves I could see Ely becoming a back of the rotation/swingman type guy. Plus makeup as well.”

I also suggested that Ely might be suited for bull pen work:

“The change up falls off the table and accompanied with an average fastball (there’s room for more growth if he can blow it up for an inning or two in the pen) he could become a middle reliever type. He’s one to watch.”

First off, I completely neglected to mention Ely’s plus-plus command which has been a key part of his success. He’s been successful at every level he’s been assigned to in the minors and has established a knack for keeping the ball on the ground. Ely has had a 51% groundball rate during each of his minor league seasons (according to Firstinning.com). It also appears that I tended to see Ely on his better days with the reported 90-92 fastball velocity. Ely’s velocity is reported to vary and here’s a snippet about that velocity in Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook: “Ely’s best pitch is a plus-plus changeup, and he does a nice job of setting it up with an 88-94 mph fastball with good movement“.

That’s a pretty big spread on velocity and it makes me wonder if Ely knows when to add or subtract a little from his fastball in order to make his change up that much harder to pick up…

Ely was very impressive last season in Double-A for the White Sox. He had solid peripherals across the board including a 7.20 K/9 rate, 2.88 BB/9 rate, and a 0.52 HR/9 rate which added up to a 3.33 FIP (the super low HR/9 immensely help his FIP). Stat Corner’s version of tRA really liked Ely last year and his tRA was 3.75 in a league where the starting pitcher’s average tRA was 4.59.

It’s fair to expect the home run rate to jump as he climbs the ladder next year and Ely’s strikeout rate has trended downward over the past three seasons. Below are his strikeout and walk rates as he’s advanced through the system:

2007 (Rookie–56 IP): 9.00 K/9, 2.25 BB/9
2008 (A+–145 IP): 8.30 K/9, 2.85 BB/9
2009: (AA–156 IP): 7.20 K/9, 2.88 BB/9

As he’s faced better competition he’s missed less bats while his impeccable control has remained similar. His strikeout rate has likely declined because he lacks a consistent third pitch and his out pitch is his plus-plus change up. Ely has also failed to pitch deep into his starts at the professional level. He’s extremely durable and has made 66 starts (and one relief appearance) over the past three seasons. Below are the average amount of innings pitched for Ely per start:

2007: 4.6
2008: 5.3
2009: 5.7

On the positive side Ely has pitched deeper into games as his career has progressed but he’s still failed to complete six innings on an average basis. Perhaps the White Sox organization keeps their minor leaguers on a strict pitch count or kept Ely on a strict one. Ely only eclipsed or passed the 100 pitch marker twice last season (and each time that he did he tossed 100 or 101 pitches).

In some regards Ely also reminds me of former Red Sox hero Keith Foulke. Foulke had great command (2.22 career BB/9) and his big out pitch was his change up though Ely throws a bit harder than Foulke did. Foulke’s fastball was typically about 86-87 mph. I do think Ely could have success in a major league bull pen but might be forced into a big league rotation as soon as next year.

Ely will likely begin the 2010 season in Triple-A for the Dodgers but could be pushed into big league action if the cash-strapped Dodgers struggle to establish the back end of their rotation. It would be key if Ely could make strides with his breaking ball and he’s going to face many doubters that think he can’t start without a consistent third offering. And if he fails he’ll likely get a shot as a reliever but his fantasy value would disappear unless he was closing.

But Ely’s had success without a consistent third pitch (accompanied with an above average ground ball rate) and pitching in Dodger stadium can only help him and may serve as a de facto third pitch in some regards.

Track his progress closely in spring training and pick him up now if he’s available in your keeper leagues. If he begins getting starts at the big league level I’d take a gamble on him and see what materializes. He’s had nothing but success thus far despite an abnormal plan of attack.

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs swapped undesired contracts on Friday, as the M’s acquired OF/DH Milton Bradley for RHP Carlos Silva. Bradley is owed a combined $21M for the 2010-2011 seasons, while Silva is set to rake in $25M ($11.5M each in 2010 and 2011, plus a $2M buyout on a $12M mutual option for 2012). Apparently, Seattle will kick in $9M, saving Chicago $5M in the transaction.

(salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Silva (he of a career 4.48 xFIP and a recent rotator cuff injury) isn’t of much concern to fantasy owners. But what’s left of Milton Bradley’s game? Let’s try to find out.

Bradley, of course, had a turbulent tenure on the North Side. He didn’t perform up to expectations in 2009, though he’s probably not responsible for global warming, swine flu and the financial collapse, as some Chicago columnists would have you believe.

The switch-hitter has long been a quality offensive player. His career wRC+ is 120, meaning Bradley’s wOBA in the majors is 20 percent better than average, once we account for park and league factors. Milton was an absolute machine in 2007 and 2008, posting wRC+ figures of 155 and 160, respectively. 2008 was the best year of his career, as Bradley set personal bests in home runs (22), Isolated Power (.242) and walk rate (16.2%). It was also just the second time in his career that he topped the 500 PA mark.

While Bradley annihilated pitchers in Arlington, we shouldn’t have expected a repeat of his monstrous ’08 campaign. His BABIP was an absurd .396, highest among all hitters. Milton’s Expected BABIP, by contrast, was .334. Bradley’s 2007-2008 power outburst was also well above his established level: his combined ISO over those two seasons was .241, compared to .170 from 2004-2006.

In a “down” 2009 season, Bradley was still above average with the bat (108 wRC+). He remained extremely patient at the plate (14.4 BB%). His pop, however, got lost at the airport terminal:

Milton’s ISO dipped to .140, his lowest mark since a 2001 season split between Les Expos and the Indians. During his 2007-2008 power surge, Bradley hit ground balls 40.4% of the time, while putting the ball in the air 37 percent. In ’09, his groundball rate rose to about 47 percent, while his fly ball rate fell to 33.3 percent.

During his banner ’08 season, Bradley had a humongous batting average on ground balls (remember that MLB-leading BABIP?) In ’09, not so much:

Bradley’s Batting Average on Ground Balls

2008: .323 BAVG (.242 AL AVG)
2009: .200 BAVG (.240 AL AVG)
Bradley’s Career Average: .228

Though Bradley was able-bodied enough to take 473 trips to the plate in 2009, he was rarely healthy. He battled quad, groin, hamstring, hip and knee ailments. Milton’s propensity to get dinged up was exacerbated by the lack of the DH. All of those bumps and bruises have taken a toll on Bradley’s wheels:

Bradley’s Speed Score, 2005-2009
2005: 5.1
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.5
2008: 3.2
2009: 2.6

Back in the AL, Bradley will likely patrol left field, while getting to rest his achy knees at least occasionally at DH. What can we expect out of Milton in 2010? CHONE projects a .369 wOBA, while Bill James forecasts a .365 wOBA. Thus far, the Fans call for a .373 wOBA.

Granted, Safeco Field is not a hitter’s haven by any means. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco depressed run scoring by 6 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. He’s not going to a great environment to get his power stroke back (95 HR park factor for lefty batters, 91 for righty hitters).

Still, Bradley (32 in April) has superb on-base skills. With a mild bounce back in the power category (not to his ’07-08 glory days, but around his career .172 ISO), he could be a pretty nice pickup for the Mariners and fantasy players.

As he leaped from rookie ball to the big leagues in a few short seasons, right-hander Trevor Cahill had little problem making opposing hitters whiff.

A California prep product taken in the 2nd round of the 2006 amateur draft, Cahill dominated the competition in A-Ball and Double-A. In 105.1 frames in the Low-A Midwest League in 2007, the 6-3 hurler punched out ten batters per nine innings with 3.42 BB/9. Cahill then took on the High-A California League and AA Texas League in 2008. His combined line? 124.1 IP, 9.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.

Sure, Cahill’s command sometimes abandoned him. But he drew as much praise as any pitching prospect in the game. And why not? In addition to all of those K’s, Cahill was a groundball machine. He burned worms at a 56.4% clip in 2007 and kept the ball on the ground 61.5% of the time in 2008. Generally, strikeouts and groundballs have an inverse relationship: one comes at the expense of the other. It’s rare to find a young pitcher so adept at making batters whiff or chop the ball into the dirt when they do manage to make contact.

Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Cahill as the second-best prospect in the Oakland A’s system (Brett Anderson was first). BA complemented Cahill’s two-seam fastball “with outstanding sink and running life, enabling him to rack up both grounders and swinging strikes.” But that was just the tip of the iceberg as far as his repertoire was concerned: Cahill also came equipped with a “nasty 79-81 MPH knuckle curve,” a low-80’s slider and a developing changeup.

Cahill figured to open the ’09 campaign at AAA Sacramento. Instead, the A’s jumped the 21 year-old up to the majors. While his minor league tag-team partner Anderson made a seamless transition (3.61 xFIP in 175.1 IP), Cahill just tried to keep his head above water.

In 178.2 innings pitched, Cahill compiled a 4.92 xFIP. While he racked up the whiffs in the minors, he K’d just 4.53 batters per nine frames, while issuing 3.63 BB/9. Cahill’s punch out rate was 8th-lowest among starters tossing at least 150 frames. He displayed slight groundball tendencies (47.8 GB%), but he didn’t wage a ground assault on hitters, either.

While scouts loved Cahill’s expansive collection of pitches, the young righty nearly abandoned his breaking stuff during his rookie year. Cahill threw both his fastball and sinker around 30 percent of the time, while showing hitters his changeup about 29 percent. That low-80’s slider appeared just under seven percent of the time, with the spike curve all but forgotten (less than 4 percent of his pitches).

Cahill’s pair of fastballs weren’t especially effective, with a run value of -0.79 per 100 pitches. He pulled the string more efficiently (+0.67). But when Cahill did try to break off a slider or curveball, he often missed the mark (-1.21 for the slider, -1.54 for the curve).

Trevor’s often fell behind in the count. His first-pitch strike percentage was only 54.2%, well below the 58.2% MLB average. Finding himself in hitter’s counts so frequently might have discouraged Cahill from going to his breaking stuff. With a fastball-changeup approach, his overall contact rate was 82.1% (80.5% MLB average).

Left-handers gave Cahill some problems in the minors (his walk rate ballooned to 4.83 per nine innings vs. lefties), though nothing especially alarming. But southpaw batters battered Cahill in his introduction to the big leagues.

Baseball-Reference offers a handy stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. 100 is average. For pitchers, a mark below 100 is above-average, while a figure above 100 indicates the pitcher fared worse than the league average.

With his fastball and sinker tailing in on righties, Cahill held same-handed hitters to a 91 sOPS+ (nine percent better than the league average). But lefties? They throttled him for a 134 sOPS+.

Right-handers struggled to get their arms extended with so many pitches coming down and in. But southpaws rarely saw a pitch on the inside half of the plate:

Cahill vs. LHB, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Texas Leaguers blog:

See all that white area on the inside corner? Lefties rarely had to contend with anything in on the hands. They didn’t whiff much against Cahill:

Cahill vs. LHB (data from Baseball-Reference)
Strikeout/PA%: 11.4%
AL Avg. for RHP vs. LHB: 17.5%

Cahill didn’t exactly cause many righties to come up empty either (12 K/PA%, compared to the 17.9% AL average for RHP vs. RHB). But he did at least get same-side batters to hit the ball on the ground often. Lefties? Not as much.

Cahill vs. RHB: 52.6 GB%
Cahill vs. LHB: 45.3 GB%

(Data from Baseball Prospectus)

Trevor Cahill didn’t exactly burst onto the scene in 2009, but he really shouldn’t have been expected to do so. He had little experience above A-Ball prior to this past season, and he did manage to avoid getting embarrassed in the majors at an age where most guys are toiling in the lower levels of the minors or gearing up for their junior season in college.

In order for Cahill to live up to his promise, he’s going to have to dust off his breaking pitches and keep lefties from getting so comfortable in the batter’s box. He has a lot of work to do, but don’t get too discouraged. Cahill will only be 22 years old in 2010. There’s plenty of time for him to rediscover his whiff-inducing ways.

The Mets endured an unfortunate 2009 season where injuries to the team’s superstars severely hampered their season. The injury bug stayed away from former first round pick Mike Pelfrey as he logged 31 starts and 184 innings. But Pelfrey finished the year with a sore 5.03 ERA.

There’s reason for optimism when Pelfrey’s season is placed under the microscope but there also appears room for possible adjustments as well. Pelfrey will be 26 at the outset of the 2010 season and the Mets need Pelfrey to step up and become a force in the middle of the rotation especially after Oliver Perez’s disastrous 2009 season.

In 2008 Pelfrey logged 201 innings with a 3.72 ERA accompanied with a 4.93 K/9 rate, 2.87 BB/9 rate, and an insanely low 0.54 HR/9 rate. His shockingly low HR/9 rate helped aid him to a solid 3.96 FIP. There was natural reason to expect his home run rate to increase in 2010 and it did to 0.88 home runs allowed per nine innings. Pelfrey’s strikeout rate increased to 5.22 per nine but his BB/9 unfortunately swelled to 3.22. All of this added up to a 4.39 FIP.

Pelfrey’s FIP looks much better than his 5.03 ERA and fantasy owners should also expect his .321 BABIP to regress closer to the league average around .300. His 66.7% LOB rate should also move closer to the league average of 72% (his 2008 LOB was 74%). Pelfrey is known for his sinker and in 2009 51% of his balls hit in play were of the ground ball variety. In 2008 he had a 49% ground ball rate. Pelfrey received no help from his defense in 2009 but it figures to improve if the Mets regulars can stay healthy and on the field though the potential addition of Jason Bay in left field wouldn’t improve the teams UZR prospects. The Mets had the leagues second lowest UZR at an astounding -47.3. Interestingly enough the Mets were without a doubt the National League’s worst team with the leather as the Nationals had the second lowest mark in the NL at -26.7 which is over 20 runs better than the Mets. In 2008 the Mets had a 27.1 UZR as a team.

Despite striking out more hitters Pelfrey’s contact rate on pitches he threw outside the strike zone leaped from 68% in 2008 to 77 percent in 2009. The league average during both years was 62%. This is an interesting mystery and no definite answer may lay in the data. But his run values per pitch certainly stand out. In 2008 Pelfrey tore hitters up with his fastball and it resulted in 21.9 runs above average on the season. But in 2009 his fastball was worth -8.2 runs below average. Something happened with Pelfrey’s fastball in 2009. Hitters were definitely doing more with it when they saw it.

Pelfrey’s fastball velocity during both years remained nearly the same at 92-93 mph. But his Pitch F/X data reveals something about his fastball. While Pelfrey’s horizontal movement on the pitch remained nearly static (-7.7 X in 2008 and -7.9 X in 2009) his vertical movement on the pitch tells another story.

Here’s his vertical movement on his fastball over his first three years in the league:

2007 (only 99 pitches): 7.8 Z
2008: 7.4 Z
2009: 6.5 Z

Pelfrey’s sinker was diving about an inch more than it had been in years past. Pelfrey’s sinker has always been his bread and butter and during his last season of prospect eligibility before the 2007 season Baseball America ranked him number one in the Mets system and raved about the pitch in the scouting report: “There are few pitchers in the minors whose fastball can rival Pelfrey’s. His two-seamer sits at 92-95 mph with fierce sink and late life and rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale.”

The difference is small and we are only talking about nearly an inch here between the difference of vertical movement on Pelfrey’s fastball from 2008 compared to 2009. Baseball is said to be a game of inches and an inch is often times the difference between a sky high pop up and a home run in this game.

Pelfrey’s sinker had a bit more sink and/or late life but it seemed to negatively affect him and he paid dearly according to the run values we have available per pitch. Why? That is what we are not exactly sure of and extra movement on a pitch typically helps a pitcher and enhances his repertoire. This extra bite hurt him and it could be statistical noise over the course of the season but hitters handled the pitch very well and did make contact with it at a great rate when it found its way outside of the strike zone.

Either way, Pelfrey should improve upon his 2009 showing next season with a little more help from his defense and a normal increase in his left on base rate. Pelfrey’s proven to be durable early in his career and his FIP vindicates his poor 2009 ERA. Pelfrey should be a good source of wins next season with the Mets having many injured regulars returning to the line up.

If you see reports about Pelfrey working on his mechanics or trying to alter his sinker to return to prior form as spring training approaches try to remember his poor 2009 run value on his fastball. Perhaps if Pelfrey goes back to his old ways he’ll see more improvement or if he sticks with what he was doing last year he’ll enjoy the extra strikeouts and rely on his defense to help him out a bit more. 2010 will tell us a lot about Mike Pelfrey and his sinker but label him as a sleeper for your drafts. He could be had towards the middle rounds and he would offer your team some intriguing upside.

According to MLB.com’s Ian Browne and Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman, free agent RHP John Lackey has signed a five-year, $85 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.

The 31 year-old has been remarkably consistent, posting xFIP marks of 3.99 in 2007, 3.88 in 2008 and 3.92 in 2009. Lackey has punched out 7.2 batters per nine innings during his big league career, while also displaying plus control with 2.64 BB/9.

Lackey comes at batters with a 90-92 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider, a high-70’s curveball and a seldom-used low-80’s changeup. His heater is a decent pitch (+0.19 during his career). But his breaking stuff shines. The 6-6, 245 pound righty’s slider has been worth +0.29 runs per 100 tosses, while his curve checks in at +1.03. Lackey’s reluctance to pull the string seems well-grounded (-1.3 runs/100 for the changeup).

Big John’s recent opponent contact rates are middle-of-the-pack (80-81 percent, right around the league average), and his 8.55 swinging strike percentage over the past three seasons is above-average, but not elite (the average for starters is 7.8 percent).

Lackey’s contact rates have been trending upward lately, too:

In-Zone Contact%
2005: 86.3
2006: 88.9
2007: 90.6
2008: 91.3
2009: 91.3

(87-88% MLB average)

Overall Contact%
2005: 76.5
2006: 79.4
2007: 80.3
2008: 81.5
2009: 80.4

Because of the extra contact, it would be wise to expect a few less punch outs in the years to come.

Where Lackey really shines is getting ahead of the hitter: his first-pitch strike percentage from 2007-2009 is 64.5%, which ranks 5th among starters during that time period. He’s adept at putting the hitter in an 0-1 hole, but then he tends to rely on the batter’s impatience. Lackey’s overall percentage of pitches within the strike zone is just 46.5% since 2007, compared to the 49-51% MLB average. Hitters are chasing a lot of those out-of-zone offerings, though: Lackey’s outside-swing percentage from 2007-2009 is 29.7%. That ranks 6th among starters over that period.

Lackey averaged nearly 211 innings pitched per season from 2003-2007, but he has experienced some health issues over the past two years. He hit the DL with a triceps strain in 2008, delaying the start of his season until mid-May and limiting him to 163.1 IP. In 2009, Lackey suffered a right forearm strain that also kept him from toeing the rubber until the middle of May. He tossed 176.1 frames this past season.

The move from Angel Stadium to Fenway Park will likely hurt Lackey’s numbers a bit:

Three-year park factors for Angel Stadium and Fenway (data courtesy of ESPN.com)

Angel Stadium
Runs:1.04
HR: 1.01
H: 1.03
2B: 1.06
3B: 0.72

Fenway Park
Runs: 1.11
HR: 0.90
H: 1.06
2B: 1.44
3B: 0.87

Angel Stadium has played like a slight hitter’s park over the past few years, increasing run scoring by four percent. Fenway, meanwhile, has inflated run scoring by 11 percent compared to a neutral ball park. Homers are hard to come by for righties, but the Green Monster is a doubles-making machine.

If the terms of the deal are correct, then the Red Sox are valuing Lackey as something like a four WAR per season pitcher moving forward. It’s a mark he easily surpassed from 2005-2007, and basically matched in 2009. But there are certainly risks inherent in handing out a five-year deal to a guy who hasn’t been healthy enough to throw a pitch in April in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps the biggest mistake teams make is handing out free agent deals based on past performance.

Overall, Lackey’s contract seems like a gamble by Boston. But given the club’s deep coffers and position on the win curve, it’s defensible. As Dave Cameron explained, each additional win added to a team on the cusp of the playoffs is extremely valuable. The Rays have an absurd collection of young talent and a canny front office. The Yankees are coming off a World Series win. A.L. East baseball is not for the faint of heart.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to draft Lackey relatively high entering next season. Luckily, you only have to worry about how he’ll perform in 2010, not 2014. His value takes a slight ding with the move to Fenway, and his health problems are mildly disconcerting. But Lackey still looks like a top 30-40 starter for 2010.

After examining some of the interesting hitters non-tendered, let’s now turn our focus toward the hurlers let go by teams on Saturday. I only included CHONE projections for a select few, as many of these pitchers are still on the rehab trail.

Jose Arredondo

Arredondo was a revelation out of the Angels bullpen in 2008 (8.11 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP), but he endured a nightmarish 2009 campaign and is now set to undergo Tommy John surgery. The small righty with big stuff wasn’t nearly as bad in 2009 as his 6.00 ERA would indicate, as his BABIP was .339 and his strand rate was just 64.9%. Arredondo’s xFIP was 4.03. He missed more bats (9.4 K/9), but his control suffered (4.6 BB/9). Jose also whiffed a bunch of batters (10.5 K/9) and walked the yard (6.1 BB/9) in 20.2 innings at AAA.

Matt Capps (56 IP, 6.91 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9)

Capps was something of a surprise non-tender, but his reputation might surpass his actual contribution at this point. To be sure, he’s nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA in 2009 would suggest: his BABIP was a stunning .370. Capps has excellent control (career 1.66 BB/9), but he doesn’t whiff many batters for a late-game reliever (6.89 K/9). An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36 GB%), Capps benefitted from abnormally low home run/fly ball rates in 2007 (4.4%) and 2008 (6.8%). In ’09, that figure regressed to 13.5%. Check out Capps’ ERA and xFIP numbers from 2007 to 2009:

2007: 2.28 ERA, 4.31 xFIP
2008: 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xFIP
2009: 5.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Add in Capps’ recent health problems (DL stints for a shoulder injury in ’08 and an elbow malady in ’09), and the non-tender begins to make more sense.

Mike MacDougal (55 IP, 6.71 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9)

The Nationals wisely let the control-challenged, injury-prone MacDougal walk, rather than going to arbitration with a guy whose surface stats (20 saves in 21 chances, 4.31 ERA) far exceeded his peripherals (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 4.99 xFIP). MacDougal was as wild as ever in 2009, and his stuff missed few bats. The 32 year-old righty decided to chuck mid-90’s heater after mid-90’s heater (Mac tossed his fastball almost 90% of the time in 2009). Subsequently, his contact rate spiked to 83.9%, compared to a career 78.2% average.

Adam Miller

Sigh. The electric right-hander was once the pride of the Indians organization, and for good reason. His mid-90’s heat and sinister slider fooled plenty of batters in the minors. But injuries have ruined Miller’s career. Elbow problems slowed him a few years ago, and a pair of surgeries on his right middle finger could possibly end his career before it even got started.

(Update: Miller and Reyes have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Scott Olsen

Have you seen Olsen’s career? In 2006, the lefty looked like one of the more valuable commodities in the N.L. At 22 years old, Olsen posted a 4.07 xFIP in 180.2 IP, whiffing 8.27 hitters per nine innings and displaying an excellent slider and changeup.

After a mediocre 2007 season (4.95 xFIP), Olsen’s velocity fell off a cliff in 2008. So did his ability to make hitters miss: 8.27 K/9 in ’06, 6.78 in ’07, and just 5.04 per nine in ’08. A trade to the Nationals did little to revive his velocity and career, and Olsen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July. Perhaps Washington will bring the soon-to-be 26 year-old back at a lower cost, but his stock has plummeted.

Anthony Reyes

The former Cardinals prospect has a fantastic minor league track record. However, Reyes likes to work up in the zone with his high-80’s-low-90’s fastball. That has led to a ton of fly balls (35.9 GB%) and dingers (1.35 HR/9) in the big leagues. His career line in the majors: 5.05 xFIP, 6.29 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9 in 293.1 frames.

Reyes’ career has also been marred by elbow ailments, and he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June after an abysmal performance with the Indians. The 28 year-old has a pair of decent secondary pitches in a mid-70’s curveball (+0.13 runs/100 career) and a mid-70’s changeup (+0.32 runs/100). He’s going to have to learn to keep that heater down, though, lest it continue to get scorched (-0.52 runs/100).

(Update: Reyes and Miller have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Chien-Ming Wang (103 IP, 5.42 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9)

Which sinkerballer’s career has imploded more: Wang’s or Fausto Carmona’s?

Wang (30 in March) had a mind-bending 9.64 ERA in 42 frames this past season: a .397 BABIP and a 53.1% strand rate will do that. He was the most groundball-centric pitcher in the big leagues earlier in his career, getting worm-burners over 60% of the time from 2007-2009. But during injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 campaigns (season-ending Lisfranc problem in ’08, a hip ailment and a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery in ’09), Wang’s groundball rate fell to around 53-54%.

He’s still recovering from that June shoulder surgery, and he isn’t expected to take a big league mound until late spring or early summer. If Wang can get healthy, he and his 4.22 career xFIP could still be of use to clubs.

Mark Worrell

A righty reliever with a wacky delivery, Worrell was acquired by the Padres (along with Luke Gregerson) in last winter’s Khalil Greene trade.

While Gregerson was extremely effective out of the ‘pen for San Diego, Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the ’09 season. Worrell has missed a ton of bats in the minors. He could re-sign with the Padres as he continues his rehab.

The Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks have just finished up a deal that involves Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.

Yankees Receive: Granderson
Tigers Receive: Scherzer, A. Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke
D’Backs Receive: E. Jackson, Kennedy

Without arguing about who won the deal, let’s analyze how this may change each player’s fantasy value.

Granderson – Grandy moves to a park that is heaven for left handed power hitters. Granderson hit 30 jacks while playing in Detroit, so I am salivating at the chances Grandy will have for dingers in New Yankee Stadium. It is unclear where Grandy fits in the Yankees lineup, but he will likely hit second behind Derek Jeter. While Johnny Damon occupied this spot last year, it is going to take a very cheap deal for him to return to New York next year.

Scherzer – Moving to the AL won’t help Scherzer, nor will the defense behind him. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, and should perform just fine in the AL. The possibility of more run support and added wins will be an added plus for Scherzer going into drafts.

A. Jackson – I doubt he starts the year in the bigs, but I think he ends the year starting for the Tigers. This is what would have likely happened in New York, so Jackson’s value doesn’t take much of a hit.

Schlereth – He has a great strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate. His ERA will certainly be lower next year due to his BABIP and LOB%. Depending on what happens with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, Schlereth could compete for the closers role.

Coke – Coke will likely compete with Schlereth for the closers job, but all of this is just speculation because we aren’t sure what the Tigers plan to do with their bullpen during the remainder of the offseason.

E. Jackson – Jackson’s 13 wins last year now seem to be hard to reach in 2010. Jackson’s new defense is good, but not spectacular. Jackson will continue to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but this will knock him down a few spots.

Kennedy – It’s unclear where he will start the year. The D’Backs seem to be having an option competition for a rotation spot or two, but don’t be surprised to see Kennedy spend another half-season in the minors waiting for an injury to occur.

Out of all the players dealt, Granderson’s value will rise the most. He looked to be a sleeper candidate going into the year, but this trade will bring him back into the limelight and raise his value to what it should have been in the first place. Those of you who used a keeper spot on Grandy, I salute you.