Archive for Starting Pitchers

Along with RHP Neftali Feliz, lefty Derek Holland is supposed to anchor the Texas Rangers pitching staff for years to come.

The lanky, 6-2 Holland was taken in the 25th round of the 2006 draft as a product of the now defunct draft-and-follow system. Holland impressed Rangers brass at Wallace State Community College, earning a $200,000 signing bonus.

He made his pro debut in 2007, and immediately began tearing minor league hitters to shreds. Holland whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings in 67 frames in the Short-Season Northwest League, issuing 2.8 BB/9 and posting a 3.29 FIP.

While Holland didn’t crack Baseball America’s list of Texas’ top 30 prospects before the 2008 season, he caught everyone’s attention by rocketing from Low-A to AA that year. In 150.2 combined IP, Holland punched out 9.4 batters per nine frames, walking just 2.4 per nine with a 2.64 FIP.

The scouting reports were every bit as promising as the stats. BA ranked Holland as the second-best talent in a deep Rangers farm system prior to 2009. They noted a gradual increase in velocity for the southpaw. He started the season sitting 89-93 MPH, but he was popping the radar gun in the mid-90’s during the regular season and touching the upper-90’s during the AA Texas League playoffs. Holland also had an above-average low-80’s changeup, a promising, if inconsistent, low-80’s slider and a curveball.

Holland was one the fast track for sure, but he was surprisingly in Texas by April of 2009 after just one start at the AAA level. He ended up tossing 138.1 innings for the Rangers, making 21 starts and 12 relief appearances.

At first blush, the results suggest that Holland shouldn’t have been anywhere near a major league mound. After all, his ERA was a macabre 6.12, and he was blasted for nearly 1.7 home runs per nine innings pitched. However, beneath that gory ERA, Holland showed a lot of promise in 2009.

He struck out 6.96 hitters per nine frames, while issuing a solid 3.06 BB/9. Unfortunately, Holland suffered from a .321 batting average on balls in play. He did give up his fair share of fly balls, posting a 41.5 GB% that was a few ticks below the 43-44% major league average. But even with fly ball tendencies, Holland’s homer rate was too high. His home run per fly ball rate was 14.9 percent. That was the fourth-highest rate among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. Expect that figure to regress more toward the 10-12% average in 2010.

Overall, Holland’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) was 4.38. The difference between his ERA and xFIP was among the largest in the majors in 2009.

Holland featured a four-pitch repertoire. He used his 92-93 MPH fastball often, tossing the pitch 70 percent of the time. Baseball America said that Holland’s “slightly across-the-body delivery and excellent extension give his fastball deception and life.” His Pitch F/X numbers bear that out, as Derek’s fastball tailed in toward lefty batters 8.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin (6.4 average for LHP). The precocious lefty supplemented his heat with 82 MPH sliders (thrown 12 percent), 84 MPH changeups (11 percent) and mid-70’s curveballs (7 percent).

Throwing his fastball with great frequency, Holland posted an 82% contact rate (80.5% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the zone was 89.6% (87.8% MLB average). Holland’s 7.4 swinging strike percentage was a little below the 7.8% average for starters.

When Holland gets more comfortable implementing his breaking stuff and changeup, it’s reasonable to expect those contacts rates to drop (fastballs have the highest contact of any pitch). His slider, in particular, showed promise with a high whiff rate. More sliders, curves and changeups could mean more free passes, but also more strikeouts.

As a 22 year-old with minimal experience past A-Ball, Holland managed to hold his own in the majors in most respects. The usual injury caveats with a young pitcher apply. But Holland has high-caliber stuff and a superb minor league track record, making him a nice sleeper pick for those willing to look past that ugly ERA.

Cardinals left hander Jaime Garcia almost opted for professional baseball in his native country of Mexico in 2005. But area scout Joe Almaraz convinced Garcia to sign with the St. Louis as a 22nd-round pick. Almaraz is quite the persuader as he also convinced the Orioles to draft Garcia in round 30 a year prior but they did not sign him. Almaraz left Baltimore after 2004 to scout with the Cardinals and he didn’t forget about Garcia.

Much of the Cardinals attention is currently focused on Matt Holliday these days after they signed Brad Penny to seemingly replace current free agent Joel Piniero. That leaves the Cards with four definite starters: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Brad Penny, and Kyle Lohse. St. Louis may try bringing back veteran John Smoltz or someone else to plug the fifth spot in the rotation but it could very well be filled with an in-house candidate.

Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters figure to be some of those in-house candidates but then there is also the case of the intriguing Jaime Garcia. Garcia was cruising through the Cardinals system before elbow soreness cut short his 2007 season. He made 18 inspiring starts between Double-A and Triple-A in 2008 and received a call up to the big leagues in July 2008. Garcia served as a reliever and had a tough ten game trial (7.07 FIP) before it was determined that he needed Tommy John surgery on his left arm.

Garcia returned in 2009 and logged 38 innings in the minor leagues after surgery. He performed well in the postseason for the Triple-A Memphis club. Garcia attacks hitters with a sinking fastball that ranges from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s and he has a hammer 12-6 curveball. Baseball America reports that he added a third useful offering last season in their recent scouting report, “He used his rehab to add a pitch that’s a cross between a cutter and slider”.

Garcia’s sinking fastball has induced ground balls at a mighty pace throughout the minor leagues. Here are his ground ball rates, courtesy of Firstinning.com, throughout the Cardinals system.

2006: A ball (78 IP)- 65%. A+ (77 IP)- 62%
2007: AA (103 IP)- 56%
2008: AA (35 IP)- 62%. AAA (71 IP)- 55%. MLB (16 IP)- 63%
2009: Rookie (4 IP)- 85%. A+ (13 IP)- 71%. AAA (21 IP)- 55%

At every single level Garcia has induced ground balls at an amazing rate. His lowest ground ball rate is 55% in 92 combined innings during two Triple-A stints. Consider the top five ground ball percentages for 2009 MLB pitchers:

1. Joel Piniero– 60.5%
2. Derek Lowe– 56.3%
3. Jason Marquis– 55.6%
4. Chris Carpenter– 55%
5. Rick Porcello– 54.2%

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright ranked #13 with a 50.7% rate. The Cardinals had three of their 2009 starters within the top 15 and two within the top 5. Piniero is likely signing elsewhere but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals won’t have another ground ball pitcher in their 2010 rotation.

There’s no reason not to believe that Garcia could induce ground balls at a very solid clip as a starter in the majors. His pitching repertoire would fit right into the Cardinals rotation. The Cardinals defense is very solid up the middle with slick fielding shortstop Brendan Ryan (10.6 UZR) and the rangy Colby Rasmus (8.9 UZR) is center field. Second base is the weak spot but the Julio Lugo/Skip Schumaker tandem may provide average defense with Lugo (-3.5 UZR in 168 innings) shifting over from shortstop. Schumaker (-7.7 UZR) will be spending his second season ever at the position after spending almost his entire professional career as an outfielder and there might be room for more defensive improvement.

It is also encouraging to know that with last seasons defense the Cardinals four primary starters and ground ball specialists had these BABIPS:

Adam Wainwright– .309
Chris Carpenter– .272
Joel Piniero– .293
Kyle Lohse– .300

The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t hurt these pitchers last season.

Garcia is entering 2010 with a clean bill of health and should get a long look during the Spring. He’s one of the Cardinals better pitching prospects and offers more upside over Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be given the job. Since his professional career began in 2006 Garcia has never topped the 155 inning mark and he hit that career high in his first pro season in the lower minors. Below are Garcia’s inning totals:

2006- 155 IP
2007- 103 IP *season ends early due to elbow soreness*
2008- 122 IP *season ends with Tommy John Surgery*
2009- 38 IP *first season back from Tommy John Surgery*

It’s also worth noting that some fear Garcia’s pitching mechanics and Garcia really can’t be expected to fire 170+ big league innings next year from the Cardinals rotation. They will closely monitor Garcia and his innings total.

Keep a close eye on Garcia’s progress this Spring and the Cardinals plans. He might be ticketed to Triple-A Memphis to start 2010 but he could arrive to St. Louis’s rotation at some point during the year. He’d be a cheap pick up and worth the gamble if he’s ever presented with the opportunity to start at the big league level. If he makes the big league rotation on opening day I’d recommend picking him up but keep in mind that he likely won’t last in that role for the entire season due to his past inning totals and the fact that this will be his first full season back from injury.

Garcia fits the Cardinals overall pitching scheme and their defense is going to help him and his sinking fastball. Don’t be surprised if he’s grounding opponents with his sinker this summer in St. Louis.

With 2010 nearly upon us, we’re being inundated with retrospectives recapping all that has occurred over the past year. Let’s add one more list to the mix: starting pitchers with the biggest difference between their Earned Run Average (ERA) and Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP).

Why? Because ERA doesn’t give the most accurate assessment of pitching performance. As Colin Wyers at The Hardball Times showed this past summer, ERA does a rather poor job at predicting future ERA.

Wyers found that xFIP, which is based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, has more predictive value than any other pitching metric. In other words, knowing a pitcher’s xFIP tells us more about his skill level and what his future performance may be than simply knowing his ERA would.

A pitcher’s ERA is subject to some factors largely outside of his control. The defensive skill of his teammates plays a part in the rate at which balls put in play are converted into outs. BABIP isn’t entirely out of a pitcher’s control: fly balls have a lower BABIP than ground balls, so fly ball-slanted hurlers tend to have a lower BABIP (the fly balls that aren’t caught are far more damaging, though). Plus, pitchers adept at getting infield pop ups generally have lower BABIP figures, as those are near-automatic outs.

However, team defense can have a large bearing on a pitcher’s ERA. Some get the backing of airtight defenses. The 2009 Seattle Mariners, for instance, saved 12 runs more than the average club per 150 defensive games. Other pitchers get a bunch of plodders and iron gloves. Take the Mets, who were over seven runs below average per 150 defensive games.

Maybe a groundball skips into the outfield for a hit because your second baseman has fall-down range. Or perhaps your world-class center fielder shows off his ridiculous D and runs down a sure fire extra-base hit. ERA doesn’t care either way. Franklin Gutierrez is awesome, but we’re trying to measure the skill of the pitcher here.

A pitcher’s ERA may also be distorted by abnormally high or low home run/fly ball percentages and rates of stranding runners on base. HR/FB rates for pitchers tend to stick around 10-12 percent. Some pitchers may be better than others at throwing from the stretch, but it’s usually a good idea to expect some regression if a guy’s strand rate strays too far from the 70-72% league average.

With all of that being said, here are the starting pitchers (100 inning minimum) with the biggest discrepancies between their ERA and xFIP.

First, the guys who outperformed their peripherals. These are the pitchers whose controllable skills weren’t as good as their ERAs would indicate.

Lower ERA than xFIP

Keep in mind, an appearance on this list does not mean that a pitcher is going to spontaneously combust. You’ll note the presence of Cain, Hanson, Carpenter, Kershaw, Santana, Greinke and King Felix, among other well-regarded starters. It just means that we would expect some regression moving forward. Greinke is a monster (3.15 xFIP), he’s just not likely to go all Pedro Martinez circa 1999 on a regular basis.

Here are the starters whose peripherals were better than their ERAs. These guys performed better than their ERAs suggest.

Higher ERA than xFIP

For some of these starters, you’ll notice strong strikeout-to-walk ratios dragged down by lofty BABIP figures and very low strand rates. Nolasco and Hamels are excellent bounce-back candidates.

When preparing for your 2010 draft, lists like these are a good place to start. But it’s also important to look beyond just the 2009 numbers, taking multiple years of performance into account whenever possible. Due diligence can help you avoid wasting a high draft pick on a ticking time bomb and can help uncover a diamond in the rough.

Prior to July 10th, 2009, Giants southpaw Jonathan Sanchez was just a high-octane, low-command curiosity to those outside of the Bay Area. No-hitters have a way of raising one’s profile, however.

A 27th round pick in the 2004 draft out of Ohio Dominican University, Sanchez quickly attracted attention in San Francisco’s farm system. The lanky lefty blew hitters out of their cleats in the minors, making 48 starts and 19 relief appearances from 2004 to 2007. Sanchez punched out an obscene 11.9 batters per nine frames, displaying decent control with 3.5 BB/9.

The native of Puerto Rico shot up the prospect ladder. He ranked 23rd in Baseball America’s Giants list in 2005, 6th in 2006 and 2nd prior to the 2007 season. BA called Sanchez’s fastball “sneaky-fast,” sitting in the low-90’s while occasionally creeping up to the mid-90’s.

He also had a “plus changeup” that “fooled hitters at every level,” as well as a sweeping slider in the developmental stages. There was some concern that Sanchez’s slender frame wouldn’t hold up under a starter’s work load (his career high IP in the minors was 125.2), but lefties with wicked stuff don’t grow on trees, and he had more long-term value pitching every fifth day.

Sanchez made his big league debut in late May of 2006, pitching mostly out of the ‘pen (23 relief appearances, four starts). In 40 IP, he whiffed 7.43 batters per nine innings while handing out 5.18 BB/9. His plan was simple: chuck low-90’s fastballs (thrown 72 percent of the time, with a run value of +0.79 per 100 pitches). Sanchez’s rarely-used breaking stuff (-0.25 runs/100) and changeup (-4.16) rarely hit the intended target. His xFIP was 5.40.

In 2007, Sanchez again spent most of his time in relief, with 29 ‘pen appearances and four starts. His 5.88 ERA was ugly, but there were signs of improvement. Jonathan K’d 10.73 per nine frames, lowering his walk rate modestly as well (4.85 BB/9). His fastball, thrown 71 percent, wasn’t as effective (-0.46 runs/100), and that “plus” changeup didn’t manifest (-1.98). But sliders and curves (+2.22) got the job done. With better breaking pitches, Sanchez raised his outside swing percentage from 19.4 in ’06 to 27.2 in ’07. In 52 innings, his xFIP improved to 4.18.

The Giants made Sanchez a full-time starter in 2008, giving him 29 turns in the rotation. Sanchez struck out an impressive 8.94 hitters per nine innings, though he was generous with the free passes, too (4.85 BB/9). Still, his 4.14 xFIP in 158 innings pitched far surpassed his 5.01 ERA. The San Fran southpaw suffered from a .327 batting average on balls in play, 10th-highest among starters tossing at least 150 innings.

As a starter, Sanchez used his fastball as a security blanket. He tossed the 91 MPH offering nearly 73 percent of the time, the 7th-highest rate among starters. The pitch had a run value of +0.33 per 100 thrown. His low 80’s breaking stuff (thrown 12 percent) had a -0.39 runs/100 value. The low-80’s changeup (thrown 15 percent) remained cannon fodder (-1.51).

Though unpolished, Sanchez was plenty hard to hit. His 75.7% contact rate was well below the 80.8% major league average, and his 10.9 swinging strike percentage put him in elite territory. The MLB average for starters is 7.8 percent, and Sanchez’s figure ranked 10th among starters.

Last off-season, former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix dubbed Sanchez a breakout candidate. His reasoning?

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably.

Bendix’s prediction proved correct, as Sanchez’s ERA and peripheral stats were a near-perfect match in 2009. In 163.1 IP, Sanchez posted a 4.24 ERA while compiling a 4.19 xFIP. His BABIP came back down to .290, as the Giants featured sleek leather (5th in the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating).

Sanchez whiffed even more hitters this past year, with an eye-popping 9.75 K/9 (6th among starters). His contact rate dipped to 73.8 percent. Among starters with 140+IP, only Rich Harden and Javier Vazquez had more success avoiding lumber in 2009.

Jonathan’s swinging strike rate remained steady at 10.8 percent, and his percentage of plate appearances ending with a K increased from 22.6 to 24.75 (16% average for starters). Not bad for a guy temporarily demoted to the bullpen in late June.

Control, however, remained elusive. Sanchez walked 4.85 batters per nine frames. He did have five intentional walks in ’09, compared to just one in 2008. But his unintentional walk rate still rose from 10.7 percent to 11.9 percent (7.5% average for starters).

In terms of pitch selection, Sanchez leaned on his fastball less than in 2008. He threw a heater 66 percent, with a league-average run value per 100 pitches (+0.06). Jonathan’s changeup still fooled no one (-1.62).

It’s his slider that made the most progress. Sanchez’s Pitch F/X data shows that he actually has a pair of low-80’s breaking pitches: a slider and a curveball. In 2008, he threw a pretty even distribution of sliders (6.3%) and curves (7.1%). In ’09, he went to the slider far more often (18 percent, compared to 4.9% for the curve).

Courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool, here’s the tale of the tape for Sanchez’s breaking pitches in 2008 and 2009. Jonathan’s curve fell out of favor, while he tightened his slider:

2008

Slider: 51.7 Strike%, 14.4 Whiff%
Curve: 60.3 Strike%, 22.2 Whiff%

2009

Slider: 60.8 Strike%, 15.6 Whiff%
Curve: 53.2 Strike%, 13.7 Whiff%

Sanchez’s breaking stuff had a +1.96 run/100 value in 2009. The slider showed more bite. The average lefty slider breaks away from lefties (in toward righties) 1 to 1.5 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Sanchez’s slider actually broke in toward lefties 1.1 inches in ’08. In ’09, the pitch moved away from southpaw batters nearly three inches.

Despite his wildness, Sanchez has displayed the skills of an above-average starter in each of the past two seasons. The 27 year-old is a quality, if occasionally aggravating, fantasy option. Sanchez is a good bet to post another low-four’s ERA next year: CHONE pegs him for a 4.26 mark in 2010, with 9.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. His control keeps him out of the batch of elite arms, but Sanchez makes the Giants rotation more than just Lincecum, Cain and pray for rain.

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.

Mariners acquired OF Johermyn Chavez and RHP Brandon League from the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Marc Hulet did a fantastic job giving us a breakdown of Chavez, a 20 year-old with a projectable 6-3, 200+ pound frame and power potential. The Venezuelan prospect has plenty to learn about controlling the strike zone, however. Johermyn, meet Greg Halman. Greg, Johermyn.

While Chavez could pay dividends for the Mariners down the line, let’s break down how Morrow and League are affected by this deal.

If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.

The fireballing righty was taken 5th overall out of Cal in the 2006 amateur draft. In its prospect coverage, Baseball America dubbed Morrow “perhaps the best pure arm in the draft.” The lanky 6-3 pitcher sat in the mid-to-high 90’s with his fastball, flashing an occasionally plus slider and a passable changeup. However, BA also said that his secondary stuff “comes and goes,” and that “several scouts still question his feel for the strike zone and for pitching in general.”

So, what did the M’s do with their gifted-but-unpolished bonus baby? Jump him all the way to the majors after 16 innings in the minors, of course!

In 2007, Morrow was pigeonholed into Seattle’s bullpen. Unsurprisingly, he was as raw as uncooked hamburger meat. Instead of working on his breaking and off speed stuff in the minors, building arm strength and stamina, Morrow flung mid-90’s fastballs in the bigs, hoping to miss enough bats to compensate for a total lack of control.

He did whiff a lot of hitters, with 9.38 K/9. But Morrow walked an obscene 7.11 hitters per nine frames. His heater, thrown 80 percent of the time, was decent (+0.53 runs per 100 pitches). But Brandon made little progress with his secondary pitches (-2.37 for the slider, with a splitter/change that was about average).

Morrow spent most of 2008 as a reliever, before going to the minors to get stretched out and returning in September as a starter.

He whiffed 11.5 batters per nine frames in 36.2 relief innings, with improved control (3.68 BB/9). As a starter, Morrow posted rates of 9 K/9 and 6.11 BB/9 in 28 IP. Overall, his fastball (thrown 71 percent) was excellent (+1.59 runs/100). Morrow’s slider was still lackluster (-0.54), and his changeup/split was a little better than average (+0.34).

2009 was more of the same. To start, or not to start, that is the question. Hamle…er, Morrow oscillated between the ‘pen and the rotation yet again. He served as Seattle’s closer before David Aardsma grabbed the role. Brandon also served a DL stint with right biceps tendinitis in late April (he had some shoulder and forearm discomfort earlier in the spring as well). Morrow then made some starts from June to July, before getting optioned to AAA Tacoma.

In 10 starts (55 innings) with the Rainers, the former Golden Bear punched out a modest 6.5 hitters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 and a 3.53 FIP. Morrow had more issues with a forearm strain while on the farm.

He returned to Seattle in September to make four more starts. As a starter in 2009, Morrow K’d 7.5 per nine frames, while still handing out plenty of free passes (5.26 BB/9).

Ironically, his slider (+0.64 runs/100), curveball (+0.5) and changeup (+0.18) rated as above-average pitches in ’09, while his heater suffered (-0.53).

Under team control until 2012, Morrow hopes to start with the Blue Jays. Because of the peculiar decision by Seattle’s last regime to stuff him in the bullpen and Morrow’s subsequent shuffling between roles, he’s now 25 and still green as grass.

Assuming Morrow still has minor league options left, might it be best for Toronto to give him back some of that lost development time by letting him open the 2010 season at AAA? Las Vegas isn’t an ideal locale for a pitcher to polish his skills. But Morrow tossed all of 101 frames in the minors, and has a career walk rate of 5.8 per nine innings in the majors. He’s clearly talented, but he’s also a mess right now. Morrow could also emerge as a closer option with the Jays.

In swapping Morrow for League, Seattle is either A.) fairly convinced that Morrow won’t cut it as a starter, B.) smitten with the young outfielder Chavez or C.) both.

That’s not to say that League is a slouch, though. The 27 year-old righty has a career 3.71 xFIP in the majors, waging a ground assault with a 62 GB%. Toronto’s second-round pick in the 2001 draft turned in his finest campaign in 2009, with 9.16 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 3.16 xFIP in 74.2 innings.

League’s 2009 K rate was well above his career average of 6.85 per nine innings. He changed his approach this past year, however. The 6-2 reliever threw a blistering mid-90’s fastball well over 80 percent of the time from 2006-2008, mixing in some high-80’s sliders and a rare changeup.

In ’09, League lowered his fastball percentage to 65 percent, and basically scrapped the slider. He relied heavily upon his mid-80’s changeup, tossing the pitch nearly 33 percent of the time. While his heater wasn’t as successful as usual (-0.31 runs/100, compared to +0.24 during his career), Brandon’s hard changeup was a plus offering (+2.65 runs/100 in 2009).

The result of the change? A career-high outside-swing percentage (32.9 percent) and a big dip in contact rate (71 percent, compared to a 78.8% career average). The extra whiffs came at the expense of some grounders, though he still kept the ball down (55.7 GB%).

With a low arm slot and his previously fastball-centric approach, League has struggled with lefties. He still gave up his fair share of extra-base hits to southpaws in ’09, but he did at least display better control against opposite-handed hitters.

There has been some speculation that League could try his hand at starting, but he hasn’t started on a regular basis since 2003. In all likelihood, League gives the M’s a strong 7th or 8th inning relief option.

For most 23 year-old starting pitchers, performing at an average level in the major leagues would be cause for celebration and optimism. Of course, Yankees right-hander Joba Chamberlain isn’t your run-of-the-mill arm.

The 6-2, 230 pounder was taken out of Nebraska with a supplemental first-round pick in the 2006 amateur draft. According to Baseball America (subscription required), Joba didn’t even pitch until his senior year of high school. But in a few short years, he went from a husky hurler getting hammered at Division II Nebraska-Kearney to a slimmed-down star leading the Cornhuskers to the College World Series.

BA’s draft scouting report mentioned that a triceps injury caused Chamberlain to fall down the board a bit, but his stuff was top-shelf. He possessed a “devastating slider,” a low-to-mid-90’s fastball that “should chew up wood bats” and a decent curveball and changeup.

Joba’s pitches did indeed munch on bats in the pros, as he barely spent any time in the minors. In 2007, Chamberlain posted rates of 13.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a tiny 2.03 FIP. When hitters weren’t whiffing, they were chopping the ball into the dirt (53.8 GB%).

Earning a big league call-up in August, Chamberlain proceeded to punish hitters out of the bullpen. In 24 frames, he punched out 12.75 batters per nine frames, issuing 2.25 BB/9 with a 2.42 xFIP. Sitting at 97 MPH with his fastball, Joba had a 64.2% contact rate (3rd-lowest among pitchers with 20+ IP) and a massive 35.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average).

Since then, there have been endless barstool arguments about Joba’s ultimate role with the Bronx Bombers. In 2008, Chamberlain made 12 starts and 30 relief appearances. He started the year in the ‘pen, transitioned to the rotation in June and then moved back to relief in September following a DL stint for right shoulder tendinitis.

Joba was superb in both roles. To no one’s surprise, he dominated out of the bullpen, with 11.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings. But he was arguably more impressive as a starter, with 10.2 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 IP. Overall, his groundball rate was a healthy 52 percent.

He didn’t go extremely deep into those games, averaging a little less than 5 and 2/3 innings per start. But the answer to the “starter or reliever?” question appeared to be an easy one. Even the best relievers don’t generally produce the same sort of value as an above-average starter. It’s more difficult to find a quality starter than it is to uncover a ‘pen arm.

In 2009, Chamberlain made 32 appearances (31 starts) in 157.1 innings pitched. The results, while far from bad, were disappointing. Joba’s 4.75 ERA was higher than his 4.56 xFIP, as his batting average on balls in play was a hefty .320. Still, we expected more than league-average pitching.

Chamberlain struck out 7.61 hitters per nine frames, while handing out 4.35 walks per nine innings. He served up 1.2 HR/9, and his home run per fly ball rate wasn’t really the culprit (12.4%, slightly above the average for pitchers). Rather, Joba’s groundball rate fell to 42.9 percent. Some of those extra fly balls cleared the fence at New Yankee Stadium (1.39 HR/9 at home, 0.94 HR/9 on the road). He transitioned to the bullpen for the playoffs.

His plate discipline stats were decidedly average. Joba’s 80.2% contact rate was a tiny bit better than the 80.5% MLB average, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (90.6) was well above the 87.8% big league average.

His control came and went, with 47 percent of his pitches located within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average) and a 54.7 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average). Hitters responded to Chamberlain’s lack of fine touch by chasing few pitches off the plate. Chamberlain’s outside swing percentage was 22.8 percent.

As one would expect, Chamberlain’s velocity dipped as he had to combat lineups several times. He sat between 92 and 93 MPH in 2009, with his high-80’s slider becoming a mid-80’s breaker. Chamberlain also mixed in some high-70’s curveballs and the occasional low-80’s changeup.

Remember that fastball that was supposed to “chew up” lumber? Well, Joba’s heat was one of the least effective pitches in the majors in 2009. He threw the fastball nearly 64 percent of the time, but it had a gruesome run value of -1.26 per 100 pitches thrown. On a per pitch basis, only Jeff Suppan and Carl Pavano fared worse with the fastball.

Joba’s cheddar didn’t show much tailing action. The average right-handed fastball moves in toward a right-handed batter about six inches more a pitch thrown without spin. Chamberlain’s only tailed in toward righties a little more than four inches. Joba’s fastball posted just a 3.3 percent whiff rate. The average for a righty four-seam fastball is about 5.8 percent.

What about that low first pitch strike percentage? According to Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Chamberlain tossed his fastball about 68 percent on the first pitch. He threw a strike with his fastball a meager 52.2 percent of the time in such situations. The average first pitch strike percentage when a righty throws a fastball is about 58 percent.

Chamberlain often ended up at the mercy of his opponents. Hitters worked a three-ball count in 23.4 percent of their plate appearances against Joba, compared to the 20.2 percent average for AL pitchers.

It’s a shame that Chamberlain got behind the hitter so often, as it limited the impact that his breaking pitches could make. His slider (thrown 22 percent of the time) had a run value of +1.29 per 100 pitches, while his curveball (thrown nine percent) was slightly better than average (+0.12). Don’t ask about the changeup (-2.56, though it was tossed just five percent).

With New York’s acquisition of Javier Vazquez, the Yankees have four starting spots set in stone (CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are obviously locks as well). That leaves one opening for either Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. Both are well-qualified, and both could certainly end up taking some starts. Clubs just don’t get through a season using only their top five starters.

While Chamberlain didn’t set the world on fire in 2009, he just turned 24 in late September. Hopefully, he gets another crack at the rotation. For the sake of argument, let’s say Joba becomes “only” a 4.00 FIP starter at his peak. If he tosses 175 innings, that would make him worth about 2.7 wins above replacement per season. In 2009, the only reliever to top that WAR total was Jonathan Broxton, with +2.9. It’s awfully hard to make a reasonable argument that Chamberlain has more value out of the ‘pen.

Joba left a sour taste in the mouths of the fantasy owners who dropped a high draft pick on him last year. However, don’t get too discouraged. Surely, Chamberlain has his flaws at the moment. He must do a better job of locating his fastball in order to avoid so many hitter’s counts. That, in turn, would allow him to use his plus slider and solid curve more often. But should we really be shocked that a guy who spent half a season in the minors is rough around the edges?

That’s not to say New York made the wrong decision in bringing him up in 2007-Chamberlain was throttling minor league batters. However, Chamberlain might need some development time before he reaches the lofty expectations bestowed upon him. Pitchers don’t always hit the ground running, progressing in a linear fashion. Joba might not be the instant ace some desired, but there’s plenty of time for him to become a high-caliber big league starter.

Which of these two pitchers is going to go for more in your auction this year? Here are their 2009 stats and their 2010 ages:

Player A: 15 W, 2.87 ERA, 238 Ks, 1.026 WHIP, RHP, age 33
Player B: 2 W, 3.61 ERA, 30 Ks, 1.465 ERA, RHP, age 34

Now, that comparison is not really fair, as Player B was obviously hurt at some point while Player A had arguably the best season of his career last year. So, let’s use some career numbers instead.

Player A: 4.19 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Player B: 3.64 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 1.26 WHIP

That closes the gap considerably and you could reasonably opt for Player B, preferring his likely ERA to Player B’s definite K advantage. A lot would depend on the health of Player B and the respective teams of the two pitchers. Let’s throw another piece of information into the mix, the Bill James 2010 projections for both players.

Player A: 15 W, 3.60 ERA, 204 Ks, 1.20 WHIP
Player B: 10 W, 3.64 ERA, 89 Ks, 1.29 WHIP

That projection sees the ERA and WHIP as tossups, but a huge advantage in W and Ks for Player A, in part due to a 68-IP advantage for Player A. The Mock Draft crowd has already spoken, giving an ADP of 57 to Player A , with a high draft position of 41 and a low draft position of 71 in the last 199 drafts. Meanwhile, Player B had an ADP of 192, with a high draft position of 144 and a low draft position of 230.

As you might have guessed, Player A is Javier Vazquez while Player B is Tim Hudson. The Braves essentially had this choice and opted to go with Hudson. They have the best information on his health and they determined he was worth a 3 Year/$28 million contract, which includes a $1 million buyout of a fourth year, also at $9 million. Meanwhile, Vazquez at $11.5 million on the final year of his contract was dealt away in what was at least partially a salary dump.

The Braves would have preferred to have traded Derek Lowe, who is older, less effective and costs more money than Vazquez. But no one was willing to step up and take Lowe off their hands, at least they did not offer a haul greater than that offered for Vazquez, a haul criticized on most Atlanta message boards.

The Braves are generally regarded as a well-run team. They knew that signing Hudson gave them six SP and that they would have to shed the salary of one of them prior to the season. They decided that three/four years of Hudson at $9 million per year was better than one year of Vazquez at $11.5 million plus additional salary the following two seasons or two compensation picks. And they did this knowing that this is the final year for manager Bobby Cox and knowing that the window for another championship for Chipper Jones is closing, too.

From the Braves position, we cannot evaluate this trade until we see what they do with the money freed up in the differences between the salaries of Vazquez and Melky Cabrera, roughly $9 million. Do they trade for Dan Uggla and make him their first baseman? Do they sign Mark DeRosa and make him a starting outfielder? Those are just two of countless options now available.

But what we do know is that we need to reevaluate the 2010 rankings of both Hudson and Vazquez. If the Braves think Hudson is healthy enough to lock up for three or four years, than he is a decent bet to provide better results than his ADP as the 49th SP off the board would indicate. And with Vazquez in the AL, pitching half his games in 2009’s best HR park in baseball, we probably need to adjust him downward from being the 10th SP selected, his current ADP.

With the Red Sox and Yankees recently adding big names to their respective rotations other guys like Wade Davis tend to slip under the radar. Davis doesn’t have the name recognition of a John Lackey, Javy Vazquez, or even David Price but he’s pretty darn good. The Rays were confident enough in his abilities to have him take over for Scott Kazmir in the rotation after they traded Kazmir to the Angels.

Davis shined during his first six starts at the big league level. He had strong peripherals (8.92 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9) which led to a 2.90 FIP. This suggests that his 3.72 ERA should have been better though his September 12 performance against the Red Sox (2.2 IP 8 ER) helps explain the bloated ERA. More good news from his big league line: His 62.5% strand rate looks a bit light and his .318 BABIP should be expected to regress.

I was fortunate enough to take in a few of Davis’ starts this past summer and came away impressed each time. During my Baseball America days one of my former colleagues and I closely charted Davis and the opposing pitcher. His broad shouldered build is impressive and he knows how to dial it up with his fastball. Davis’ curveball is a true plus pitch and has filthy break.

The Rays have a lot of rotation depth like the Yankees and Red Sox. But the Rays have younger depth that is spilling into the minor leagues and sparkling on the top prospect lists. As of today the Rays figure to open the season with a tentative rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis. Davis’ sparkling 2009 MLB debut should give the 24 year-old the upper hand for the last rotation spot. He’s slowly but steadily progressed through the Rays system and has no significant injury history. He’s also proven to be a workhorse during his minor league tenure. Here are his combined inning totals the past few seasons:

2009: 195
2008: 161
2007: 158
2006: 146

Davis has seen his inning totals increase every season and he’s had success at every level. He’s ready to be cut loose at the big league level and the Rays should be confident in his ability to provide 180+ innings at the big league level. While there may not be immediate pressure on Davis if he’s the teams fifth starter he better try avoiding any early big season slumps.

Andrew Friedman knows each win really counts in the American League East and if Davis struggles (his weaker points can be his command and consistency of his slider and change up) they have a few appetizing options that could slot in easily for him. Jeremy Hellickson (known for his lethal change up) is going to be pounding on the door at Triple-A Durham where he tore through hitters to wrap up his 2009 season with a 2.66 FIP in nine starts. And Andy Sonnastine is going to be hungry for another opportunity after an embarrassing 2009 showing (5.45 FIP in 100 IP) at the big league level although he showed signs of life (3.37 FIP in nine starts) after a demotion to Durham. Jake McGee cannot be forgotten as he’ll begin his first full season back from Tommy John surgery after tossing 30 innings (mostly in Double-A) during his recovery year. McGee could rocket through the system if he finds his pre-injury stuff.

I like Davis’ chances of nabbing 10-15 wins with an ERA south of 4.00 next season with the Rays. His home run per nine rate will rise from his 0.50 big league marker but Davis’ plus fastball and curve will allow his to earn plenty of strikeouts. A big key to Davis’ game will be his ability to harness his command and if he has it big league hitters better watch out because this guys going to be here to stay.

Davis has flown under the radar and closely monitor him when pitchers and catchers report in February. He has big upside and can be had later during your drafts especially with all the attention New York and Boston’s rotations are receiving.

The Yankees have reacquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves, bringing back the starter who last pitched for New York in 2004.

Most pitchers moving from the NL to the AL are mysteries and hard to predict, but we do have four years of pitching in the AL to examine. Aside from pitching for the Yanks in 2004, Javy pitched for the White Sox from 2006-2008.

2004: 14-10, 4.91 ERA, 6.82 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, .284 BABIP, 4.78 FIP, 4.44 xFIP
2006: 11-12, 4.84 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 3.29 K/BB, .321 BABIP, 3.86 FIP, 4.05 xFIP
2007: 15-08, 3.74 ERA, 8.85 K/9, 4.26 K/BB, .297 BABIP, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
2008: 12-16, 4.67 ERA, 8.64 K/9, 3.28 K/BB, .328 BABIP, 3.74 FIP, 3.85 xFIP

Yankee fans will remember Vazquez’s down year with the Yankees when he first came into the American League, but he did pitch very well for the White Sox for three seasons. His FIP and his ERA have never quite agreed with each other, with all signs pointing to Javy being a better pitcher than what we saw in the AL during ’06-’08. Some fans will be going off his Yankee numbers instead of his overall AL numbers, and don’t let it be you. That year in New York was blip in the radar of Vazquez’s overall success.

Javy isn’t a ground ball specialist, but a career GB% near 40% is not the worst thing in the world for a strikeout pitcher. But, playing in New Yankee Stadium changes things. He will have to make sure to keep the ball down more if he doesn’t want balls flying out of the yard.

The defense behind Vazquez is solid, so that shouldn’t be a worry for fantasy owners. His outfield defense will be good enough to chase down the flies that stay in the yard, so put this issue completely out of mind.

It’s hard to advocate drafting a #3 starter as high as Vazquez will be going in drafts, but this is a unique situation. Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.