Archive for Starting Pitchers

The St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly come to terms with RHP Brad Penny on a one-year, $7.5M deal, with $1.5M in possible incentives.

Following an injury-marred 2008 season with the Dodgers, Penny inked a one-year, $5M deal with the Red Sox last season. Brad ended up getting the boot in Boston in late August, then latched on with the Giants in September.

The oft-cited narrative for Penny’s ’09 campaign is this: he got eaten alive in the A.L., scurried back to the N.L. and then pitched well with San Francisco. However, his numbers suggest that he was neither the scrub of his Red Sox days nor the resurgent ace of his Giants tenure:

Penny’s 2009 peripherals, by team

Red Sox: 6.08 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB, .333 BABIP, 64.4 LOB%, 4.49 FIP
Giants: 4.32 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 2.22 K/BB, .211 BABIP, 81.8 LOB%, 4.35 FIP

Penny’s BABIP was 122 points higher with Boston. His rate of stranding runners on base was extremely low with the Red Sox, before going through the roof with San Francisco.

Overall, the 31 year-old posted a 4.46 FIP in 173.1 IP. That FIP was about four-tenths of a run below his actual 4.88 ERA. He whiffed 5.66 batters per nine innings, with 2.65 BB/9.

While Penny tosses a curveball, a splitter and the occasional slider, his success has always been predicated on his fastball. The 6-4, 240 pound Penny chucked his heater 71.1% of the time in 2009, one of the five highest rates among starters.

In ’08, he lost zip on his fastball as he dealt with persistent shoulder problems (92.4 MPH, tied for his lowest mark since 2002). But in ’09, Penny picked up that missing velocity (94 MPH). Take a look at his velocity chart. Penny was all over the map in 2008, but he steadily gained speed in 2009:

After posting a gruesome run value of -1.44 per 100 pitches in 2008, Penny’s fastball rebounded for a +0.22 runs/100 value this past season.

Penny and his rediscovered heater should enjoy New Busch Stadium, which is awfully kind to pitchers. Using ESPN’s park factor data, here are the three-year park factors for Busch III:

New Busch Stadium Park Factors, 2007-2009

Runs: 0.93
HR: 0.79
H: 0.99
2B: 0.92
3B: 0.91

(A park factor of 1.00 means that the park is neutral, favoring neither hitters nor pitchers. A park factor below one indicates a pitcher’s park, while a park factor over one means that the stadium favors hitters.)

Since 2007, Busch has suppressed run scoring by seven percent and homers by 21 percent, as compared to a neutral ballpark. The venue isn’t conducive to extra-base mayhem, either. Penny should come to love his new home digs.

While there’s certainly risk in signing a pitcher who essentially lost his whole 2008 season to a shoulder injury, Penny looks like a nice value for the Cardinals. CHONE projects Penny to post a 4.13 ERA in 159 innings, which would be worth 2.1 WAR. If a win costs roughly $4.4M on the free agent market, then the Cards would receive $9.2M in value from the club’s Penny pact.

Penny’s not a top-shelf arm. But as a good starter heading to a pitcher’s park in the N.L., his fantasy value just received a nice boost. It would be wise to pick up a Penny on draft day.

On the surface, Chicago White Sox righty Gavin Floyd appeared to take a step back in 2009. After all, his ERA rose from 3.84 in 2008 to 4.06 this past year, with his win total dipping from 17 to 11 in the process.

Recently, ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft came out with a preliminary top 200 list for the 2010 season. Floyd checked in at number 200. He ranked below starters such as Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana.

Santana (elbow, triceps) and Matsuzaka (shoulder) lost big chunks of the ’09 season with injury problems. Lowe, meanwhile, pulled off an undesirable trifecta by missing fewer bats, walking more hitters and getting fewer ground balls than usual.

But Floyd? He’s coming off of his best season in the majors, win total and higher ERA aside.

This time last year, I examined Floyd’s 2008 season and came to a rather harsh conclusion:

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.

Today, I can say that I was wrong about Floyd. And now, I fear that other analysts may be making a similar mistake in underestimating the former Phillies prospect.

In 2008, Floyd struck out 6.32 batters per nine innings. In ’09, his K rate climbed to 7.6 per nine frames. The increase appears to be supported by a drop in contact rate. Opposing batters made contact when swinging at Floyd’s pitches 81.7% of the time in ’08, but just 77.8% in ’09 (80-81% MLB average).

Also, his rate of swinging strikes spiked from 8.4% in ’08 to 9.9% this past year (7.8% average for starting pitchers). Floyd ranked 17th among starters in contact rate and 21st in swinging strike rate.

The soon-to-be 27 year-old also lowered his walk rate a bit, from 3.05 BB/9 in 2008 to 2.75 BB/9 in 2009. Floyd kept the ball on the ground more than in years past, with a 44.3 GB% (41.2% in ’08).

That’s not a massive increase, but it makes a difference. His home run/fly ball rate didn’t change all that much between 2008 (11.8%) and 2009 (11.2%), but his HR/9 figure fell from 1.31 to 0.98. Considering U.S. Cellular Field’s homer-happy tendencies (1.26 HR park factor from 2007-2009), getting a few more grounders can’t hurt.

For most of his major league career, Floyd struggled to retire lefty batters. In 2009, that wasn’t the case. Baseball-Reference keeps track of a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. A score below 100 for a pitcher means that he was better than the league average, while a score above 100 means he did worse than average. Here are Floyd’s sOPS+ figures vs. lefties since 2006:

2006: 155
2007: 132
2008: 111
2009: 74

While one year of platoon data shouldn’t be taken as definitive proof that Floyd has conquered southpaw batters, there’s other evidence to suggest the improvement is legitimate.

Floyd has shifted his pitch selection in recent years, progressively tossing fewer low-90’s fastballs in favor of more mid-80’s sliders and cutters:

Floyd’s fastball, slider and cutter percentage, by year:

2007: 62.1 fastball (FA) percentage, 7.6 slider (SL) percentage, 6.7 cutter (FC) percentage
2008: 54.9 FA%, 9.2 SL%, 9.4 FC%
2009: 41.5 FA%, 16.3 SL%, 12.7 FC%

Floyd’s fastball has been scorched for a career run value of -0.92 per 100 pitches, making his decision to throw fewer heaters a wise one. His slider and cutter are lumped together on his Pitch Type Values section. Floyd’s Pitch F/X graphs (like this one from a 9/16 start vs. Seattle) show that they’re two distinct pitches, though:

The run value of his slider and cutter combined is +0.58 during the course of his big league career.

With more whiffs, fewer walks and the patented “Cooper Cutter” in his arsenal, Floyd was one of the better starters in the A.L. in 2009. Floyd’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA dropped from 4.61 in ’08 to 3.82 this past season. That placed 8th among A.L. starters.

Gavin Floyd might not be an elite starter, but he’s pretty darned good. Don’t let the win total fool you: Floyd was better than ever in 2009.

Even though this isn’t officially a mailbag post, the idea for this analysis came from someone with a question, who wishes to remain anonymous:

“I’m in a dynasty league, with no rules about rounds or dollar values for keepers. I have Slowey, Joba, and Cueto as potential keepers, but can only keep two of them. Which one should I trade or drop?”

Kevin Slowey only pitched through June, missing the last three months of the season after undergoing surgery on his wrist. Slowey looks poised to return by the beginning of the season, so his injury isn’t of much concern, especially in dynasty leagues. Slowey has superb control, so his WHIP should benefit from it. His high ERA in 2009 was inflated a bit by a fluky BABIP, but his home run rate will need to go down before he can be considered a top fantasy starter.

Joba Chamberlain is a hard player to project, because his role is up in the air. The Yanks are going to give him every opportunity to be a starter, and will be easing up on the “Joba Rules” next season. His strikeout rate as a starter is 8.40 per 9, while his K/9 as a reliever is 11.9. He also walks more batters as a starter, which is not a good sign of possible future success.

Johnny Cueto just finished up his second season as a starter for the Reds, lowering his ERA 40 points, and lowering his FIP 31 points. He did this by lowering his walk and home run rates, but he sacrificed strikeouts to do so. The Reds defense is good, so Cueto’s increased ground ball rate is another good sign. However, he doesn’t have much of an arsenal, and he looks to be maximizing his potential already, without much more of a ceiling to reach.

Of these three, I am keeping Slowey for sure. He is a safe bet to give you wins and a reasonable ERA and WHIP each year, with a decent strikeout total. This leaves the decision between Chamberlain and Cueto. Chamberlain still has more upside than Cueto does, so I would keep him as well. Cueto is a hard guy to cut loose, but you may be able to find a trade partner for him.

To sum it up, in a vacuum I’d rather keep Slowey and Joba over Cueto.

For major league hurlers, calling Petco Park home is the pitching equivalent of winning an all-expenses paid trip to Disney Land. Bring us your homer-prone, your waiver-wire wanderers, your injury-plagued looking for a fresh start. Petco wishes to help you (sorry, Mark Prior: even the Happiest Pitching Place On Earth has its limitations).

Until July of 2009, right-hander Jake Peavy enjoyed the ambiance of Petco. Make no mistake: Peavy has been a very good starter in his own right. But, his home ballpark surely aided him.

Courtesy of ESPN’s park factor numbers, here’s how much Petco has depressed offense over the past three seasons:

Petco Park, 2007-2009:

Runs: 0.76
HR: 0.72
H: 0.85
2B: 0.73
3B: 0.92

(1.00 is neutral. Numbers under 1.00 indicate a park factor favoring pitchers, and numbers over 1.00 favor batters.)

Petco’s a massive pitcher’s park: that’s not breaking news. But the numbers still are staggering. Run-scoring is absolutely smothered in San Diego’s home ballpark.

Peavy was shipped to the White Sox in a deadline day shocker last July 31st. Here are the three-year park factors for his new home:

U.S. Cellular Field, 2007-2009:

Runs: 1.09
HR: 1.26
H: 0.99
2B: 0.89
3B: 0.61

There aren’t that many doubles and triples legged out in the Cell. That’s because those batters are too busy leisurely trotting around the bases, while Hawk Harrelson shrilly does his best to shatter every window in the greater Chicago area.

Over the past three seasons, Peavy has surrendered 0.44 home runs per nine innings at home, and 1.01 HR/9 on the road. The 28 year-old isn’t an extreme fly ball pitcher (41.8 GB%), but his groundball rate is a few ticks below the league average. Some of those flys that were innocuous outs at Petco are likely to carry over the fence at The Cell.

Let’s assume for a moment that Peavy’s strikeout and walk rates mirror his Bill James projection for 2010: 9.08 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9. But instead of his HR/9 average coming in well under 1.00, he gives up roughly one homer per nine frames. That’s about 24 dingers in his projected 215 innings.

That would make Peavy’s projected Fielding Independent ERA about 3.70.

Maybe you feel that James’ K/9 and BB/9 estimates aren’t quite right. Peavy did cruise once he returned to the mound with the Pale Hose. But those projected K and walk ratios are a dead ringer for his career averages in the N.L., in a pitcher’s haven.

There has been a disparity in the level of play between the A.L. and the N.L. Last offseason, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times examined pitchers switching leagues over the 2004-2008 seasons.

He found that those going from the N.L. to the A.L. received a “penalty.” As one might expect based on the A.L. possessing the DH and clearly playing a superior brand of baseball as of late, pitchers moving from the N.L. to the A.L. saw an across-the-board dip in performance. Pitchers going from the Senior Circuit to the Junior Circuit saw their K/9 decline by 0.57, and their BB/9 increase ever so slightly (+0.05).

Let’s apply those marks to Peavy’s projections. Now, his FIP is about 3.85.

None of this is to suggest that owners should shy away from Peavy. However, it is important to consider park and league effects when projecting a guy moving from a pitcher’s paradise in the N.L. to a homer-happy venue in the A.L. Also, his last two seasons have been curtailed by injury.

Peavy’s good. But if you’re looking for another ERA in the low-three’s, you’ll probably be disappointed.

Since he was taken in the supplemental first round of the 2004 draft, Gio Gonzalez has alternately enticed and unnerved major league talent evaluators.

If you squint a little bit, the left-hander has the makings of a top-tier starter. Gonzalez cooks in the low-90’s with his fastball, boasts a big-breaking high-70’s curveball and misses more bats than just about any hurler in the game.

Yet, the 24 year-old has already been traded three times-twice by the White Sox! As good as Gio can look when hitting the corners and garnering jelly-legged swings on that wicked curve, there are other days when he resembles an Oliver Perez/Nuke LaLoosh love child.

During his minor league career, Gonzalez managed to punch out a breathtaking 10.3 batters per nine frames, including 9.7 K/9 at AAA. Unfortunately, his walk rates were equally prodigious: 4.1 BB/9 career in the minors, and 4.6 BB/9 at the AAA level.

Over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, Gio made 30 appearances (24 starts) with the Athletics. The results probably made Oakland pitching coach Curt Young weep: a 6.24 ERA in 132.2 frames. Gonzalez’s underlying numbers help explain why he’s so intriguing and aggravating to GM’s and fantasy players alike.

Gio has whiffed 9.7 batters per nine frames in the show. Opponents have made contact against him 76 percent of the time (80-81% MLB average), a rate commensurate with some of baseball’s top-end starters.

Gonzalez’s trademark curveball has exceptional movement . His yellow hammer breaks away from lefties (in toward righties) about six inches (4 inch MLB average for left-handers). It also drops in the zone 9-10 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin, obliterating the 5 inch average for MLB lefties. Talk about two-plane break.

Of course, all of those swings and misses come at a price. Gonzalez has issued a whopping 5.49 BB/9 in the majors. Gio has located just 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49-50% MLB average. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 54.2% (58% MLB average).

Gonzalez has been the victim of some poor luck on balls put in play during his short major league stay, with a .345 BABIP between 2008 and 2009. His home run/fly ball rate has also been extremely high, at 16.4% (the MLB average for pitchers is around 11-12 percent). Gonzalez’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.43 over the 2008-2009 period.

It’s difficult to say what kind of pitcher Gonzalez will become as he gains more experience in the big leagues. We can dream of a day when he’ll still be whiffing bunches of batters, without the walks flowing as freely as Gatorade in the dugouts.

Granted, pitchers almost never make gains in one area without sacrificing in another. For that walk rate to go down, Gonzalez is going to have to toss more pitches around the plate. That means more contact and fewer K’s. But the trade-off would certainly be beneficial. Easier said than done, though.

With abysmal control, Gio has posted peripherals consistent with a mid-rotation starter. He’s far from a finished product, however, as his high-octane style has a way of jamming up the bases. Gonzalez is a nice target in A.L.-only leagues, if you can stomach the occasional 3-inning, 5 walk, “pass me the Tums” outing.

Who should be picked first in 2010 drafts: Zack Greinke or Tim Lincecum? Both pitchers were ridiculously dominant in 2009, and will be fighting to take the baton from Johan Santana as the first pitcher taken.

During drafts last year, Lincecum was taken in the early to mid second round, with Greinke going in the seventh or eighth round. There is no chance that Greinke and Lincecum shouldn’t (I should say won’t, but some people just aren’t intelligent) be the first two pitchers off the board this year, but in what order? Even though I’m sure you’ve seen the numbers plenty of times with the Cy Young awards being handed out recently, let’s review each player’s fantasy numbers from the past season:

Lincecum: 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K (225.1 IP)
Greinke: 16 W, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 K (229.1 IP)

With those numbers, how are you not a Cy Young winner (let’s not argue about that here). If you want to go a little bit deeper, here are some of my favorite non-fantasy stats for each player:

Lincecum: 10 HR, 47.5% GB%, 2.34 FIP
Greinke: 11 HR, 40% GB%, 2.33 FIP

No home runs, decent ground balls, and nearly identically brilliant FIP’s some how good these guys truly were in ’09. Neither season seemed to be a fluke, so we are going to have to look beyond the player to evaluate who should be drafted first. Both pitchers will put up great strikeouts, ERA’s, and WHIP’s next year, so the Wins will be called into question. To predict wins, we need to examine each team:

Giants – Awful offensive team, getting on-base at a .309 clip, worst in the major leagues. The defense, however, ranked 4th in the league in UZR, and the ballpark is perfect for pitchers. The Giants have money to spend and are actively trying to improve the offense to assist their excellent pitching staff.

Royals – How can I put this nicely? The Royals are bad. The offense is better than the Giants, but not by much. The defense, well, it sucked. Because of some bad contracts, the Royals won’t be able to acquire anyone of significance to help Greinke out.

Due to his situation, Lincecum is likely to get more wins during 2010, pushing him over the top for the first pitcher taken in drafts next year. While his end of season back problems may cause some concern, I’m not worried about them any more than I am any other potential injuries a pitcher can go through. If you’d rather go Greinke, I don’t think anyone will argue with you, but I’m taking Timmy.

The 33-year-old Randy Wolf is allegedly drawing a lot of interest on the free agent market. The southpaw had a solid season in ’09 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 3.23 ERA (3.96 FIP) but threw 200+ innings for just the first time since 2003, so his durability is in question and teams looking to sign him to a three- or four-year deal could be disappointed. Luckily, most fantasy managers will be making just a one-year commitment to Wolf.

He showed solid control in ’09 with a walk rate of just 2.44 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is definitely not at the elite level at 6.72 K/9. His contact rate was also about 4% above league average in ’09, so that should be monitored heading into 2010.

Wolf was basically a fastball-curveball pitcher in ’09, in terms of quality pitches. His fastball was as good as it’s been since ’03 with a rate of 29.3 wFB (showing velocity is definitely not everything), and his curveball was snapping at an all-time best rate of 8.8 wCB. Wolf will likely need to find a little more success from his slider or change-up if he’s going to continue to dominate hitters three or four times through the order – especially if he mistakenly makes his way to the American League.

It’s safe to say, though, that any pitcher that is coming off of a 200 IP season is someone to consider, especially considering that he’s improved each year that he’s distanced himself from his surgery. Keep in mind: Over the past three seasons, Wolf has pitched in a pitcher’s park for all but half a season (for Houston) during that span. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher.

Wolf’s 3.0 WAR suggests that he was worth about $13.6 million to the Dodgers in ’09, which was far more than the $8.0 million he earned (when including IP incentives). As a result, expect a pretty significant pay increase in the real world of baseball. In fantasy land, we certainly want to see where Wolf settles before we starting predicting where he should be drafted.

Seattle is the most likely AL destination, and perhaps the safest AL landing spot for the pitcher if he’s going to post solid fantasy numbers in 2010. The Mets are also considered a possible destination for the hurler, who is one of the Top 3-5 starters on the market. Neither team will likely have a huge (positive) impact on Wolf’s win totals. Wolf likely has one or two more seasons where he’ll pitch at the level of a mid-tier starter.

Is there a more frustrating starter in the game than Rich Harden?

Since he broke into the big leagues at age 21, Harden has compiled a 3.58 FIP, while punching out 9.35 batters per nine frames. The slim right-hander totes a searing four-seam fastball, a knee-weakening slider and a changeup making MLB hitters resemble beer league softball players in the second game of a double-header.

Unfortunately, any discussion of Harden’s immense talent includes the qualifier, “when healthy.” His DL history reads like a Tolstoy novel. Shoulder ailments have haunted Harden throughout his career. But you name it, and the soon-to-be 28 year-old has strained it. The latest entries into the file are a back injury that sidelined him in May, and shoulder fatigue that cut his September short.

Overall, Harden made 26 starts for the Cubs in 2009. His 4.09 ERA in 141 IP doesn’t look near as shiny as his Gibson-like 2.07 ERA in 148 innings between Oakland and Chicago in 2008. But there wasn’t near as much of a difference between those two campaigns as you might think.

Harden’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate) was 3.70 in 2009. In 2008? 3.70.

In 2008, Harden whiffed 11.01 hitters per nine innings. In 2009, he posted 10.91 K/9. He wasn’t as sharp painting the corners this past year, issuing 4.28 BB/9 compared to 3.71 BB/9 in 2008.

In ’08, The 6-1 righty posted a very low .265 BABIP on the season. Granted, Rich is an extreme fly ball pitcher (his 49% FB rate in 2008 was highest among starters tossing 140+ IP). Fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders, and Harden is adept at getting batters to pop the ball up. Over the past two seasons, he has the fourth-highest infield/fly ball rate among starters.

Those two factors combine to depress his BABIP more than that of most starters (his career BABIP is .284). But a mark in the mid-.260’s was bound to regress. In 2009, Harden’s BABIP climbed to .304.

Harden’s HR/FB rate also changed drastically between 2008 and 2009. In ’08, Rich gave up a dinger on just 6.5% of his fly balls. That was fifth-lowest among starters, and well below the typical 11-12% average for pitchers. In ’09, Harden’s HR/FB rate skyrocketed to 15.1% (third-highest among starters).

According to Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, Harden gave up nine “Just Enough” home runs in 2009. “Just Enough” homers are defined as “balls that clear the fence by less than 10 vertical feet” or balls that “landed less than one fence height past the fence.” In other words, Rich surrendered plenty of wall-scrapers. Expect to see fewer taters hit against Harden in 2010.

Harden benefitted from an abnormally high rate of stranding runners on base in 2008 as well. His 84.4 LOB% was the highest among starters. In ’09, Harden’s LOB% came back down to 74.3%, right around his career 74.9% mark.

Despite the massive gap in ERA, the difference between Rich Harden’s performance in 2008 and 2009 was largely superficial. He combined superb pitching with some fortuitous breaks in ’08, but then saw Lady Luck turn a cold shoulder to him in 2009. His skill-based numbers were very similar.

Entering 2010, fantasy owners are in much the same position as MLB GMs when it comes to evaluating Harden. How much are you willing to bet on his transient brilliance?

Harden strikes me as the ideal middle-round target. Yes, there are three things that you can guarantee in life: death, taxes and a Rich Harden DL stint. But 125-150 excellent innings from the free agent hurler may well be more valuable than 175-200 frames from a more mundane starter. There’s risk, to be sure, but snatching up a top-shelf talent at a reduced price is worth the trouble.

Because he did not pitch this season due to elbow and mental issues, Justin Duchscherer will be passed over by many major league clubs as he enters free agency for the first time this offseason. Even though MLB teams may not want him, your fantasy team will.

In 2008, Duchscherer posted a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 wins in 22 starts before hip issues sidelined him for the last month of the year. While his ERA and WHIP were fantasy gold, it didn’t look to be sustainable. David Golebiewski tackled this after the 2008 season, noting that a 3.69 FIP and .240 BABIP indicate an almost certain rise in his ERA and WHIP. Because he doesn’t strike out too many batters (6.04 K/9 in ’08), his ERA and WHIP encompass most of his value outside of wins.

Fantasy owners should be praying “The Duke” leaves Oakland. If he stays, his wins will likely suffer, stealing away a good chunk of his fantasy value. The A’s have expressed interest in meeting with Duchscherer and bringing him back next year, but Duchscherer needs to decide if that is the best option for him and his family. That is typically the case, but the issue is magnified because he suffers from clinical depression.

If he decides he wants to stay in the Bay Area, the Giants have made public their desire for another starter, and Duchscherer could fit in well there. There haven’t been many rumors surrounding Duchscherer, because teams don’t want to target him if his mind isn’t in the right place. If he is determined to be healthy, there will be many more teams interested, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, who can gamble more than other organizations can.

Because he doesn’t overpower hitters (~86 MPH fastball), the elbow shouldn’t be a problem. If his mental health is right, he should be too. Keep your hopes up that he will leave Oakland, but plan on him staying in the bay area. Whatever team he joins will be better off, and it could mean a couple of more save opportunities for the closer. A’s players should pray it’s with them, because they could use a chance to win more games next year.

By the time right-hander Edwin Jackson got shipped from Tampa Bay to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce, he had acquired the pejorative “thrower, not a pitcher” tag.

You’re likely familiar with Jackson’s story by now. By 19, he was in AA and whiffing over a batter per inning. Prior to the 2004 season, Baseball America named Jackson the best prospect in a Dodgers top 30 list that included the likes of Franklin Gutierrez, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Russell Martin.

BA gushed that Jackson was “the complete package,” fitting “the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee.” He beat Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday. Jackson looked poised to take LA by storm.

Except he didn’t. The next three years of Jackson’s career were essentially lost, as he got pummeled in AAA and the majors. He couldn’t find the strike zone with a GPS. Exasperated, L.A. jettisoned Jackson to Tampa Bay in January of ’06 for middle relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. From 2004-2006, Edwin posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 between AAA Las Vegas and Durham. He was a mess.

Two seasons in Tampa’s rotation produced FIP’s of 4.90 and 4.88, respectively. After Jackson’s trade to the Tigers, we chronicled his tenure with the Rays. His ERA dropped dramatically from 2007 to 2008 (5.76 to 4.42), but that supposed progress seemed questionable. Jackson’s walk rate improved, but that came at the expense of considerably fewer K’s. His BABIP dipped 50 points from ’07 to ’08, thanks to historically improved D in Tampa.

One season later, Jackson’s ERA has again dipped by a big margin. In 2009, he registered a 3.62 ERA in 214 frames. With the Tigers facing a payroll crunch (I suppose that can happen when a club has a combined $65.5M tied up in Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson in 2010), Detroit is reportedly willing to listen to offers for Jackson. Is Edwin finally making good on the Baseball America’s bold prognostication?

The 26 year-old did make legitimate progress this past season. His K/BB ratio climbed from 1.4 to 2.3, as he raised his K rate to 6.77 per nine frames while issuing 2.94 BB/9. However, Jackson’s performance was more commensurate with a low-to-mid four’s ERA than his mid-three’s mark. He benefitted from a .281 BABIP, which helps explain the discord between his 3.62 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

Jackson’s searing mid-90’s fastball wasn’t all that special (-0.41 runs/100), but a biting upper-80’s slider (+1.89) made life difficult for opposing batters. He improved his outside-swing percentage from just 21.7% in 2008 to a healthy 27.2% in ’09 (25% MLB average).

As he reached unprecedented territory in terms of innings pitched, Jackson appeared to hit the wall:

April-June (6.98 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.25 FIP)

Fastball/100 pitches: +1.06
Slider/100 pitches: +2.0
Z-Contact%: 87.5
Zone%: 49.6
F-Strike%: 58.4

July-September (6.56 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.35 FIP)

Fastball/100: -1.75
Slider/100: 1.82
Z-Contact%: 88.7
Zone%: 46.8
F-Strike%: 50.8

MLB avg Z-Contact% is 87.8%
MLB avg Zone% is 49.3%
MLB avg F-Strike% is 58.2

Keep in mind that the run values for the fastball and slider are subject to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In Jackson’s case, he had a an extremely low BABIP during the first three months, while giving up few homers. In the second half, his BABIP regressed, as did his HR/FB rate.

But even so, Jackson clearly had problems locating from July onward. His rate of pitches thrown within the strike zone fell three percentage points, and his first-pitch strike percentage plummeted from league-average territory to barely over 50 percent.

In all, Jackson provided 3.5 Wins Above Replacement for the Tigers, a performance worth nearly $16M on the open market. The former Dodger and Ray has two years of team control left.

Jackson clearly took a step forward in 2009, but it’s important not to get too caught up in his ace-like ERA in the first half or his punching bag act in the second half. The truth lies somewhere in between those two extremes. A top-of-the-line arm? Not at the present moment. But Jackson looks like an above-average starter.