Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week Two 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SDP – Kevin Correia
PIT – Paul Maholm

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

SDP – Chris Young

Correia was victimized by the gopher ball in his first outing of 2010. He gave up 3 HR in 6 IP at Arizona. He should have an easier time of things this week with two starts in Petco. Last year in his first season with the Padres, Correia had a 3.68 ERA at home, thanks to a .264 BABIP in Petco. He squares off this week first against the Braves and then ends up with a repeat match against the Diamondbacks.

Maholm had a 7.3 HR/FB rate last year. He gave up a home run already this year in his first game, part of four runs he allowed in six innings. Last year Maholm threw his curve ball and changeup virtually the same number of times. In his first start in 2010, he threw his curve 25.6 percent of the time and his changeup 12.2 percent. Also, Maholm’s velocity was down nearly three mph in his first outing.

Meanwhile, Young is likely to be placed on the 15-day DL on Monday with tightness in his pitching shoulder.

This is a weekly column that looks at projected two-start pitchers for the following week. In addition to listing all of the starters scheduled for the coveted two starts, this column will focus on five pitchers that you may be on the fence (or should be on the fence) about starting in the upcoming week.

John Maine – In his first start of the year, Maine gave up 2 HR in 5 IP. This week he has road starts in Colorado and St. Louis. In one of his final Spring Training outings, Maine allowed two homers against the Cardinals. With his average fastball velocity under 90 in his first start, put Maine on the bench this week and wait for an improved fastball before activating him.

Carl Pavano – Between 2005 and 2008, Pavano managed just nine wins in the majors and became nothing more than a punch line. But last year he notched 14 wins and both his FIP and xFIP were a full run lower than his ERA. Pavano went 7 IP and allowed just 1 ER in his 2010 debut. He has two home starts this week, including one against the Royals. Check the waiver wire and see if he is available in your league.

Ervin Santana – It was a rough debut for Santana, who allowed 4 ER in 6 IP in his home start against the Twins. This week he has two road starts, facing off against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Santana had good velocity on his fastball but struggled with his slider, usually his out pitch. With two trips to the East Coast this week, bench Santana if you have other options.

Chris R. Young – In the last three years, Young is 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA in Petco Park and 9-14 with a 5.44 ERA in road games, making him one of the easiest decisions for fantasy players. This week he has home starts against the Braves and Diamondbacks, so make sure he is in your lineup.

Barry Zito – Last year, Zito posted a 7.22 K/9 ratio, his highest mark since 2001. In his first start this year, Zito fanned five batters in six innings. He did allow a bunch of fly balls in his first start but historically Zito has had a below-average HR/FB rate. This week he faces the Pirates and Dodgers. Most of the Pirates’ HR power comes from Garrett Jones, who has a lifetime .197 AVG versus southpaws (albeit with 7 HR and a .247 ISO). The Dodgers have hit just 2 HR so far this year. Look for Zito to continue his strong pitching this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, Hamels, Peavy, Kershaw, Garza, Lester, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Dempster, Floyd, Anderson, Scherzer, W. Rodriguez, Harden, Pettitte, Cueto, Matusz, Romero, Carmona, Arroyo, Kennedy, Ducsscherer, Rowland-Smith, Marquis, Hochevar, Robertson, Davis, Ohlendorf, Guthrie, Tallet, Smith.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

“Don’t Give Up On…” will be a weekly feature this season, highlighting players who have proven that they’re better than their current slumps would suggest.

No, Chicago Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano is not an ace. And yes, the Atlanta Braves chewed Big Z up and spit him out like a piece of Juicy Fruit that lost its flavor. The 28 year-old surrendered six hits, two walks and eight runs while retiring just four Braves on opening day. But that doesn’t mean that you should make him a scape(billy)goat, trading him for fifty cents on the dollar or outright releasing him.

Granted, there were reasons to expect Zambrano to regress in 2010 even prior to his grisly outing. There was a half-run difference between his 2009 ERA (3.77) and his expected FIP (4.27). His punch out rate climbed back to over eight batters per nine frames after a couple years of decline, but he issued 4.15 BB/9 and benefitted from a low 5.6 home run per fly ball rate (Zambrano’s career rate is 9.1 percent, and the average for pitchers is around 10-12 percent). With more fly balls finding the seats, Zambrano looks like a low-four’s ERA pitcher.

But, owners might be making knee-jerk reactions in giving Z the boot. According to his ESPN player page, Zambrano is owned in 69 percent of fantasy leagues. Following Z’s F-caliber performance against Atlanta, 8.9 percent of his owners let him loose.

Coming into the season, Zambrano was projected for 4.08 FIP by CHONE. Using the CHONE projections available here on the site, I calculated the FIP of all starters to see who matched up with Zambrano. Here are some starters projected for similar FIPs, as well as their ownership percentage in fantasy leagues (from ESPN):

As you can see, six of these starters are owned in all leagues, and Lilly and Blanton (both on the DL) are owned in the vast majority of leagues. When they return to action, their ownership percentages will likely creep up a bit. In “real life” baseball, Big Z is a burden on Chicago’s payroll. Compared to his peers in fantasy, however, Zambrano actually seems undervalued.

If Carlos Zambrano is the best starter on your team in a shallow league, you’re in trouble. But he’s still plenty useful in all formats. One start, no matter how ugly, shouldn’t weigh too heavily in the minds of fantasy owners. There’s a tendency to over-analyze this time of year, trying to infer too much from too small a sample size. Getting caught up in the hyperbole and making a snap decision is a good way to hurt your team in the long run.

The 2010 San Diego Padres don’t figure to pose much of a threat in the NL West. CHONE projects a fourth-place finish for the club, while Oliver and PECOTA have the Pad people bringing up the rear in the division. San Diego will feature a lineup filled with players such as Kyle Blanks (23 years old) Everth Cabrera (23), Chase Headley (25), Nick Hundley (26), Tony Gwynn Jr. (27) and Will Venable (27) who are trying to establish themselves as fixtures in the team’s long-term plans.

However, the most highly regarded young Padre resides in the starting rotation. Mat Latos, 22, will open the year as San Diego’s fifth starter.

A 6-6, 225 pound right-hander from Florida, Latos dropped to the 11th round of the 2006 draft despite touching the mid-nineties during his senior season in high school. Teams were concerned about his bonus demands, but the Padres took a flyer. Latos attended Broward Community College in Florida, and eventually signed with San Diego through the now-defunct draft-and-follow process for a cool $1.25 million bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2007, Latos threw 56.1 innings for Eugene of the Short-Season Northwest League. He struck out 11.82 batters per nine innings and walked 3.51, posting a 2.19 FIP and rising to third on Baseball America’s list of Padres prospects. BA liked his “potential for three plus pitches”: 92-97 MPH gas, a hard curveball and a changeup.

In 2008, Latos was sidelined with variety of ailments. According to BA, Latos lost innings with “shoulder, oblique and attitude problems.” He tossed just 56 frames across three levels (Rookie Ball, Short-Season and High-A), whiffing 11.1 per nine innings and issuing 2.1 BB/9 with a FIP around three. Latos moved up a spot to #2 on the Padres’ prospect list, as he was praised for “ridiculously good” stuff but dinged for a “flippant attitude.”

This past year, Latos pummeled High-A and Double-A hitters before reaching the big leagues in July. He was sidelined with an ankle injury early in the season, but posted rates of 9.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a sub-two FIP (aided by an extremely low HR rate) in 72.1 innings between Fort Wayne and San Antonio.

Latos made 10 starts over 50.2 innings for the Padres, with 6.93 K/9, 4.09 BB/9 and a 4.67 xFIP. He showcased 94 MPH velocity, mixing in low-80’s breaking balls and changeups.

Considering the sample size, it’s best not to slice and dice Latos’ major league numbers too much. But we did get an indication of the quality of his stuff, as his contact rate (77.9 percent) came in below the 80-81% MLB average and his 10 percent swinging strike rate was above the 8.6% MLB norm.

In the long term, there’s a lot to like with Latos. He’s very talented, and he’ll have the benefit of making his home starts in a park that decreases run scoring around 25 percent compared to a neutral venue.

As for 2010, Latos could be a nice late-round pick. CHONE and ZiPS both predict that he will be an above-average starter:

CHONE: 87 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.98 FIP
ZiPS: 83 IP, 6.31 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.02 FIP

The big question regarding Latos is, how often will he pitch? The Padres will keep a close eye on his workload, given that Latos hasn’t come anywhere near throwing a full major league season’s worth of innings. Considering San Diego’s likely also-ran status, as well as Latos’ long-terms promise and durability concerns, expect the righty to be handled conservatively.

Latos is a strong pick in keeper leagues, and he should be pretty good when he pitches in 2010. Just don’t draft him expecting a big innings total.

(I couldn’t help myself.)

It seems that Mike Leake has taken the Reds’ fifth starter job, making him the first player to skip the minors since Xavier Nady in 2000 and the first pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1994. (Shame on him for outpacing our crack staff here at FanGraphs, but his player page will be up as soon as he plays a game.) Prospect Maven Marc Hulet will be giving us a detailed scouting report on Leake shortly, so I will focus here on finding a good comp for Leake. That might help us appraise his chances for success in the coming year.

Darren Dreifort doesn’t really make a for a good comp because he had what was considered at the time to be plus-plus tools or stuff, and he also came up as a reliever. Nady’s obviously not a good comp, though with Leake taking the ball for Dusty Baker, he may have as many TJ surgeries in his future as the Cubbies’ outfielder (zing!). Yes he pitches with a different hand, but could Jim Abbott provide us the best comp for Leake?

Abbott was also a first round draft pick that skipped the minor leagues. Just as there’s some skepticism about Leake’s eventual upside, there were rumblings around baseball that the Angels decision to bring Abbott up so quickly was about ticket sales and publicity. Leake is considered a good athlete for his position but his tools are doubted. Abbott was a little taller than Leake (6’3″ to Leake’s 6’0″), but they seem to be of similar build, clocking in around 200-210 pounds each. Mariano Rivera once talked of Abbott hitting home runs in batting practice, and he tripled in a spring training game once, so Abbott was an athletic guy too.

Abbot’s bread and butter was a fastball-curveball combination and eventually succeeded for a while because of slightly above-average control. Leake’s best two pitches are a fastball and a curveball and has above-average command of those two pitches. If only they pitched with the same hand, they’d seem to make a solid comparison.

In some ways, the Abbott comp could be seen as a compliment. After all, Abbott is one of only fourteen left-handers to have more than 12 wins at the age of 21 in the last 80 years. But of course, that’s a terrible stat to use to measure a pitcher, and it’s the other statistics that we are more interested in. Abbott did win those 12 games with a below-average ERA (97 ERA+ in 1989), and aside from the inspirational aspect, his career was not particularly long or distinguished. Given the possibility of an above-average lineup behind him, Leake could win some games in 2010. But those picking him should probably not hope for much more from the Reds’ starter than Abbott gave the Angels in his debut season. Abbott had a 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 5.71 K/9 that year.

Today is supposed to be a waiver wire article, but we’ll have plenty of those. For those of you still planning one last draft (and the internal FanGraphs league is one of those), I thought I would present to you my second-ever auction draft. Yes, I’m a noob. But with more mocks and real-life auctions in my review mirror, I’ll be able to step up the auction coverage here at RotoGraphs.

Here are my results, with comments coming after:

Position Player $
C Brian McCann 22
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1
1B Adrian Gonzalez 31
2B Brandon Phillips 21
3B Gordon Beckham 17
SS Alcides Escobar 12
CI Paul Konerko 10
MI Chris Getz 1
OF Justin Upton 30
OF Carlos Lee 19
OF Matt LaPorta 4
OF Seth Smith 1
OF Scott Podsednik 1
UT Gaby Sanchez 2
BN Xavier Nady 1
BN Matt Joyce 1
Total Offense: $173

Position Player $
P CC Sabathia 26
P Josh Johnson 22
P Brett Anderson 16
P Roy Oswalt 6
P Ryan Franklin 5
P Ryan Madson 4
P Kerry Wood 3
P Ryan Rowland-Smith 2
P Jonathon Niese 1
BN Ian Kennedy 1

Pitching total: $87

This was a 15-team put on by MDS (MillionDollarSleeper), who I’m sure you’ve seen around the comment boards at this site and others. He brought in an impressive collection of talent including David Goleblahblah, Paul Greco from FantasyPros911, Tim Heany from KFFL, Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright from Razzball, Paul Bourdett from AOL Fantasy Fanhouse, Antonio D’Arcangelis from RotoExperts, Scott Swanay from Fantasy Sherpas, Chris Carbonell from the Starbonell BlogTalkRadio show, Charlie Saponara from FB365, and yours truly.

Given that it was a 15-team league and my second attempt ever, I don’t think I fared so badly. I’d say Adrian Gonzalez for $31 was a little much, but the top-tier first basemen went for closer to $40 and Albert Pujols went for $48, so I think I did okay there. Maybe $10 is too much for Paul Konerko, but Adam LaRoche went minutes later for $15 and I felt (much) better. Things happened a little differently with Alcides Escobar – ten minutes after wondering if I’d spent too much on him, Everth Cabrera went for $4 and I wondered if Escobar’s superior batting average (based on fewer Ks and minor league history) was worth $8. Maybe it will prove to be. Carlos Lee for $19 looks about as bad as he does in a uniform, but the crib sheet I was using from LastPlayerPicked.com had Lee worth $21 next year and I was happy to get the power production with a good batting average for relatively cheap. And as for Scott Podsednik and Gaby Sanchez, who both showed up on my NFBC teams, too: They were cheap. And I think they’ll play almost regularly all year. So that’s something.

On the pitching side, CC Sabathia went for less than Johan Santana ($28), Dan Haren ($31), Felix Hernandez ($33), Zack Greinke ($32) and Tim Lincecum ($41), so I was happy to get my ace for cheaper than most. I also preferred CC, despite his big innings totals, over Ubaldo Jimenez ($26) and Ricky Nolasco ($25) as much as I like the younger pitchers. Lord knows CC has put up big innings totals before.

Once I spent my top-closer money on Brett Anderson, I knew I’d be looking for value in the saves category. Advice from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin was ringing in my ear (punt saves!), but I decided I’d rather try to field a full team this time. Once he’s healthy, I happen to think that the Indians will want to run Kerry Wood out there at closer to pump up his value for a trade, meaning that between him and Ryan Madson, I think I might have a second closer in there somewhere.

It’s kind of a wonky team and seems devoid of elite, top-shelf talent, but it just might work. What do you guys think?

In terms of pitching attributes, there’s no better blend for starters than high strikeout totals, few walks and ample ground balls. The hurlers who can miss bats, limit free passes and burn worms reign supreme.

Oakland’s Brett Anderson fits the profile. One of the shiny baubles picked up in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal, Anderson ripped through the minor leagues (9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 56.5 GB%) and made the A’s out of spring training last season. As a 21 year-old with scarce experience above A-ball, Anderson was arguably one of the top 15 starters in baseball.

In 175.1 innings, Anderson struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, while walking just 2.31 hitters per nine. He remained a strong groundball pitcher in the show, with a 50.9 GB%. The lefty’s 3.61 xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, placed 14th among starters.

In terms of stuff, Anderson went from good to great during the course of the season. Take a look at his velocity chart for 2009:

In April, Anderson sat 91 MPH with his fastball, with an 82.7 MPH slider. By the summer, he was averaging 93-94 MPH with a mid-80’s slider. Overall, Anderson’s heater wasn’t a great pitch in 2009 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches), nor was his changeup (-0.47). However, he featured some of the best breaking stuff in the majors.

Anderson’s slider (tossed nearly a third of the time) was worth +2.51 runs per 100 pitches. In terms of overall runs (wSL), Anderson’s +22.2 topped all big league starters. His high-70’s curveball also rated well, though the sample is small considering that he threw the pitch less than seven percent (+0.25 runs/100).

Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool has different pitch classifications (his site classifies most of Anderson’s breaking pitches as curveballs). Whatever you want to call his pitches, Anderson showed exceptional control when he spun a breaking ball. He threw both the slider and curve for a strike 65.1 percent of the time (62.7 percent MLB average for the slider and 58 percent average for the curve).

For 2010, CHONE (3.92 FIP) and ZiPS (3.78 FIP) both project FIPs in the high three’s. The FANS are even giddier, envisioning a 3.48 FIP.

As that fan forecast attests, people are privy to Anderson’s talents. But he still might be a relative value entering the season. According to MockDraftCentral, the 22 year-old is, on average, going 35th among starting pitchers. That’s after regression candidate Jair Jurrjens and health question mark Brandon Webb.

The only thing standing in between Anderson and acedom is health. The A’s were pretty cautious with him in ’09, limiting Anderson to 94 pitches per start, but his innings total did increase by about 70 from 2008 to 2009 (it’s closer to 40 if you count his pitching for Team USA and a pair of Triple-A playoff starts in ’08). Given Anderson’s talent and modest ADP, he could be the rare top prospect who’s actually a bargain on draft day.

Florida Marlins acquired LHP Nate Robertson from the Detroit Tigers for LHP Jay Voss.

According to Joe Frisario’s MLB.com article, the Tigers are picking up $9.6 million of Robertson’s $10 million salary for the 2010 season.

The 32 year-old lefty posted a decent 4.68 xFIP in 2008, but his ERA soared to 6.35 as he suffered a .343 batting average on balls in play and performed poorly with runners on base (64.3 LOB%). In 2009, the former Marlins prospect hit the DL twice: a lower back strain sidelined Robertson in May, and elbow surgery shelved him from late June to late August. He also had surgery to repair a torn groin muscle during the offseason.

When he did pitch, Robertson wasn’t terribly unlucky. He was just lousy (5.44 ERA, 5.37 xFIP). He struggled to place pitches in the strike zone (43.4 Zone%, compared to the 49-51% MLB average) and walked over five batters per nine innings.

Robertson isn’t an appealing fantasy option at this point, as CHONE (4.81 FIP) and ZiPS (4.97 FIP) both project FIPs in the high fours. At his peak, he was a league-average starter, supplementing below-average K rates with solid control and groundball proclivities. Struggling to throw strikes and stay healthy, Robertson now has “stay away” stamped on his forehead.

The trade also means that Dontrelle Willis will get a chance at the back of Detroit’s rotation, and Clay Hensley will be bumped to Florida’s ‘pen.

Some final cuts were made today, and a closer “decision” was made. Let’s get right into our first of many 2010 waiver wire articles, shall we?

Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Pat Neshek
Well, it looks like Jon Rauch is not the winner of the Minnesota closer sweepstakes. Manager Ron Gardenhire announced that the Twins will go with a committee at the position, and Aaron Gleeman is right to predict some media hand-wringing and hair-pulling concerning the decision. In fact, as he points out, that insanity (or inanity) has already begun. While we applaud the decision from a real baseball viewpoint (a Mijares/Neshek platoon could be deadly in the ninth), it does make things difficult on fantasy owners. Jon Rauch still has the best package from an overall skills standpoint, but everyone on this list has had a good spring save Mijares. If you need some cheap saves however you can get them, take the guy from this group that is still available on your wire. It will be your closer lottery ticket.

Chris Young (SD)
There really isn’t any news to back up this item, but Young has pitched well this spring and went un-drafted in many leagues (319.46 ADP). He leads the Friars with strikeouts (16 in 17.2 innings) and has a nice ERA to boot (3.57 if you care about that sorta thing). The walk rate this spring (10 walks so far) is not terribly exciting, but he the surgery he’s recovering from did not show a torn labrum – just fraying – so there’s a chance he can recover to his former glory. Let’s not forget that he was a decent pitcher before last year’s (hurt) disasterpiece, regularly putting up k-rates over eight against average walk rates. Oh, and then there’s that home park that he plays in, too.

David Hernandez
Right after touting Chris Tillman as a good $1 option just last week, the Orioles go and reassign the youngster so that he can get more work in with his new pitch. It’s a testament to the young pitching talent the O’s have acquired that the guy behind him is also interesting – provided you are in an AL-only league and looking for a spot-starter / end of bench option. Now, Hernandez didn’t strike many people out last year (K/9), and he gave up way too many fly balls (FB%), but that was not the case in the minor leagues. Well, at least on one front. He’s always been a fly-ball pitcher (44.5% career in the minors) but he’s always struck out gobs of players (10.12 K/9 career in minors), too. He’s no slop pitcher, as his 93 MPH fastball is augmented by three decent pitches – so here’s a bet that Hernandez will look a lot better in his second attempt at the bigs.

On Saturday, Milwaukee Brewers manager Ken Macha announced that David Bush will slot into the fourth spot in the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. The 30 year-old Bush is coming off of a grisly 2009 campaign in which he had a Boeing-level ERA and missed time in June and July with a right triceps tear after Hanley Ramirez scorched him with a comebacker. Is there any fantasy value to be had here?

In 114.1 innings pitched, the Wake Forest product had a 6.38 ERA. As you might expect, he wasn’t that bad: Bush’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was a not-terrible-but still-mediocre 4.79. He managed to punch out 7.01 batters per nine frames, while issuing 2.91 BB/9. Those are quality numbers. But, as has often been the case in his career, Bush was battered by the long ball: he surrendered 1.5 HR/9.

Bush wasn’t particularly unlucky in terms of his fly balls becoming fan mementos. His HR/FB rate was 12 percent, close to his 11.7 percent career average and within the typical 10-12% rate for pitchers. It’s just that hitters are lofting the ball far more often against Bush:

Since his halcyon 2006 season (3.8 Wins Above Replacement), Bush has seen his groundball rate dip every year. He had a 46.6 GB% in ’06, 43.4% in 2007, 41.1% in 2008 and just a 34.4% rate of grounders this past season. Consequently, his HR/9 figures have climbed from 1.11 in 2006, 1.3 in 2007, 1.41 in 2008 and the aforementioned 1.5 mark in 2009. Bush’s xFIP last year was over a full run higher than his work in ’06.

With a kitchen sink approach to pitching, Bush tosses at least five different pitches (his Pitch F/X data identifies an occasional two-seamer as well). His fastball has never been known for its zip, but it averaged a career-low 87.9 MPH last year and was bushwhacked for a -1.36 runs/100 pitches value. That was the 11th-worst mark among starters with at least 110 innings pitched.

Perhaps feeling that his fastball had abandoned him, Bush threw the pitch a career-low 49 percent of the time. Whether you consider them separate pitches or not (the Baseball Info Solutions pitch data does), his slider (+0.20 runs/100) and cutter (+1.06) were effective. However, Bush’s slow curve (-0.15) and changeup (-4.46) rated poorly.

With fewer fastballs thrown (Bush’s fastball percentage has gradually dropped from 57 percent in ’06 to last year’s 49 percent mark), he has placed fewer pitches over the plate:

Bush’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone, 2006-2009 (MLB average that year in parentheses)

2006: 56.5% (52.6%), +7% above the MLB average
2007: 53.9% (50.3%), +7%
2008: 51.8% (51.1%), +1%
2009: 50.5% (49.3%), +2%

His first-pitch strike percentage has fallen from the 62 percentage range in ’06 and ’07 to a major league average 58 percent last year. Not coincidentally, Bush’s walk rate has gone from immaculate to merely good.

Bush’s BABIP (.324 last year) will likely fall, and he should do a better job of stranding runners on base (63.3 LOB% in 2009, compared to a 68.6% career rate). But to be a fantasy option, Bush must prove he’s healthy and regain his once-average fastball (career -0.19 runs/100), rather than continuing to chuck a pitch that looks like a beach ball to major league hitters.

It’s hard to recommend him, given his evaporating groundball rate and increasing rate of free passes handed out. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP, while ZiPS shows a 4.57 FIP forecast. It’s possible that Bush could have some value in NL-only leagues, but I can’t see him becoming a good mixed league pick.

Now that Bush is in the rotation, there’s a three-way ruckus for the fifth spot between Manny Parra (chronicled here), Jeff Suppan and Chris Narveson. Given that Soup’s French Onion is better than his fastball, Parra looks like the best option.