Reds Patch a Leake
(I couldn’t help myself.)
It seems that Mike Leake has taken the Reds’ fifth starter job, making him the first player to skip the minors since Xavier Nady in 2000 and the first pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1994. (Shame on him for outpacing our crack staff here at FanGraphs, but his player page will be up as soon as he plays a game.) Prospect Maven Marc Hulet will be giving us a detailed scouting report on Leake shortly, so I will focus here on finding a good comp for Leake. That might help us appraise his chances for success in the coming year.
Darren Dreifort doesn’t really make a for a good comp because he had what was considered at the time to be plus-plus tools or stuff, and he also came up as a reliever. Nady’s obviously not a good comp, though with Leake taking the ball for Dusty Baker, he may have as many TJ surgeries in his future as the Cubbies’ outfielder (zing!). Yes he pitches with a different hand, but could Jim Abbott provide us the best comp for Leake?
Abbott was also a first round draft pick that skipped the minor leagues. Just as there’s some skepticism about Leake’s eventual upside, there were rumblings around baseball that the Angels decision to bring Abbott up so quickly was about ticket sales and publicity. Leake is considered a good athlete for his position but his tools are doubted. Abbott was a little taller than Leake (6’3″ to Leake’s 6’0″), but they seem to be of similar build, clocking in around 200-210 pounds each. Mariano Rivera once talked of Abbott hitting home runs in batting practice, and he tripled in a spring training game once, so Abbott was an athletic guy too.
Abbot’s bread and butter was a fastball-curveball combination and eventually succeeded for a while because of slightly above-average control. Leake’s best two pitches are a fastball and a curveball and has above-average command of those two pitches. If only they pitched with the same hand, they’d seem to make a solid comparison.
In some ways, the Abbott comp could be seen as a compliment. After all, Abbott is one of only fourteen left-handers to have more than 12 wins at the age of 21 in the last 80 years. But of course, that’s a terrible stat to use to measure a pitcher, and it’s the other statistics that we are more interested in. Abbott did win those 12 games with a below-average ERA (97 ERA+ in 1989), and aside from the inspirational aspect, his career was not particularly long or distinguished. Given the possibility of an above-average lineup behind him, Leake could win some games in 2010. But those picking him should probably not hope for much more from the Reds’ starter than Abbott gave the Angels in his debut season. Abbott had a 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 5.71 K/9 that year.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I prefer “Reds Take a Leake”.
Someone needs to chop off Leake’s left hand, then it’s an accurate comparison.
Why’s that? Abbott didn’t have a chopped off left hand.
Didn’t Dreifort make his debut in 1994, not 2004?
Edited. Thanks
Usually like your stuff Mr. Sarris, but this is filler.
If you read my stuff you’ll also notice I’m open to constructive critiques. On the other hand, discussing a comp for a pitcher in a unique situation that is now on the radar for those in deeper leagues seems like worthy exercise.
I watched Leake pitch at ASU and got to know him a little bit. Great kid with a really good head on his shoulders. And for the record there’s no way in hell he weighs 200 lbs. I bet he’s closer to 160 than 200. Very mature, confident kid with poise beyond his years. In terms of fantasy value, I don’t know if he’ll deliver much value in 2010 as I’d expect Ks to be something that develop slowly for him at the major league level. He works VERY quickly (think Mark Buehrle) and he absolutely pounds the strike zone and stays low in the zone. He’s a ground ball machine. His fastball tops out in the low 90s but usually sits at less than that. He has excellent sinking movement on his fastball and also throws a really good slider and changeup. He’s also very athletic and a tremendous fielder. Pat Murphy often said Leake was the Sun Devils’ best outfielder, although he played the field sparingly at ASU once it became obvious his future was on the mound. When he was drafted in the sixth round by the A’s out of high school, Billy Beane compared him to a young Greg Maddux which is something that I think has kinda stuck (smart pitcher, great fielder, pinpoint control, not overpowering, etc.). My prediction for this year is about 6 K/9 with about 2 BB/9 although I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see him walk even less than that.
Interesting to see little actual insight about Leake. Doug Gray did some pitch f/x analysis of him from ST and EJ is on point.
He works down in the zone and has a ton of movement on his pitches. He’ll work 88-90 with his fastball, but his control is his calling card. Think Greg Maddux-lite (emphasis on the lite — I’m not claiming he’s the next Maddux).
The Reds also noted his tremendous athleticism, pointing out that only Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs were in his class of the guys in camp.
He also threw something like 150 innings last year between ASU and the Arizona Fall League. So he should be able to give the Reds 28-30 starts comfortably, assuming Dusty doesn’t push him too hard.
I was coordinating with Marc Hulet, who did a full scouting report on Leake here. Still thought the Abbot comp might be interesting.