Archive for Starting Pitchers

When the Cleveland Indians shipped C/1B Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox last July 31st, the club picked up LHP Nick Hagadone, RHP Bryan Price and RHP Justin Masterson. Hagadone was the long-term gamble, a post-Tommy John power lefty who’s struggling to find the zone in the minors. Price, a reliever, is dealing in the Eastern League.

Masterson, meanwhile, was supposed to slot right into Cleveland’s starting rotation, anchoring a Tribe starting five no longer featuring the likes of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. So far in 2010, Masterson has a massive discrepancy between his peripherals and his ERA. In 53.2 innings, the 25-year-old has 9.06 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, a 61.9 GB% and a 3.59 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is over 2.2 runs higher, at 5.87. That’ll happen when your BABIP is .404 — the next highest BABIP among starters with 50+ IP is Gavin Floyd, at .366. Masterson has also stranded fewer runners than one would expect (63.9%). But that’s not to say that the former Sox prospect is without flaws.

Masterson’s talents are apparent — from a near-side-arm delivery, the 6-6, 250 pound righty throws low-90’s sinkers boring in on the hands of same-handed hitters and sliders catching the low-and-away portion of the plate. However, the same attributes that make him hell on righty batters leave him helpless against left-handed hitters.

Giving lefties a long look at the ball and relying upon two pitches with very large platoon splits (sinkers and sliders tend to be hammered by opposite-handed batters), Masterson shuts down righties and gets lashed by lefties. Take a look at his career splits by batter hand (his 2008 and 2009 numbers are divided between starting and relieving):

Without a changeup to speak of, Masterson is forced to combat hitters of both hands with the fastball and slider. Those offerings work wonders against fellow righties, but leave him lost against lefties. Courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, here’s Masterson pitch selection and performance by batter hand in 2010:

Against right-handers, Masterson jams hitters with his sinker or a harder fastball with less sink and horizontal movement (still sinker-like action, though the Pitch F/X system classifies it as a four-seamer and it does look like a distinct pitch). Or, he goes to the other corner of the zone with his slider, getting well above-average whiff totals with the fastballs and the slider. Versus lefties, he goes most often to that harder heater, but struggles to throw it for strikes and just about never gets a swing and a miss. He’s also having issues getting strikes with the slider.

Currently, Masterson is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. AL-only players who are willing to play matchups could extract some value here — green-light him against righty-heavy lineups and bench him against a team with multiple lefty thumpers. He’ll undoubtedly pitch better from here on out, but in order to be more than a vexing fantasy option, Masterson needs to find a weapon to give him a chance against lefties.

You’ll have to forgive Cincinnati Reds righty Aaron Harang if he scowls in the direction of the Washington Nationals’ dugout on Friday night. His mound opponent, Livan Hernandez, has been Mr. Lucky this season. Livan holds a 2.15 ERA through his first 10 starts, despite a nothing-special 4.90 xFIP. Harang, by contrast, seems to have a black could hovering directly above his 6-foot-7 frame.

In 65.2 innings spanning 11 starts, the 32-year-old has a grisly 5.48 ERA. He has surrendered 79 hits and 11 home runs. It looks like Harang is getting hammered, and fantasy owners have jumped ship — his Yahoo ownership rate is down to 36 percent. But beneath those ugly numbers, Harang still possesses the skills of a quality starter worthy a roster spot.

Harang has whiffed 7.13 batters per nine innings, walking just 2.06 per nine. That way in which he’s getting those sturdy peripheral stats has been different in 2010. Normally a guy who fills the strike zone, Harang has instead relied upon hitters to chase his stuff off the plate. He has put 44.5% of his pitches within the zone (54.3 career average, 47.5% MLB average in 2010). But batters are taking the bait on outside pitches 30.4% this year, compared to a 24.4% career average and the 27.8% MLB average this season.

The process is different, but the results are the same: a slightly above-average K rate and few free passes. Harang’s xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 3.84. Few starters have displayed a larger split between ERA and xFIP. So, why is Harang’s ERA so huge?

For one, Harang’s batting average on balls in play is .338. It’s true that Harang has a higher-than-average BABIP during the course of his major league career, and he is giving up line drives at a 25.5% clip in 2010. But even so, expect that figure to regress somewhat — Harang’s career BABIP is .317, and his expected BABIP (based on the opposition’s rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls and pop ups) is .315 this season.

He should also improve in terms of stranding base runners. Harang’s left on base rate is 66.2% this year, while his career strand rate is 73% and the major league average is in the 70-72% range.

Finally, Harang likely won’t be taken yard as often in the months to come. His home run per fly ball rate is 15.3 percent, compared to a career 11.2% rate and the 11% MLB average. Granted, Great American Ball Park produces more souvenirs than most venues — it has a four-year home run/fly ball park factor of 114, meaning GABP produces 14 percent more dingers per fly ball hit than a neutral field. But even allowing for that fact, as well as Harang’s fly ball tendencies, he has been unlucky.

GABP causes about 12.5 percent of fly balls hit to turn into homers (multiplying GABP’s HR/FB park factor, 1.14, by the average rate at which fly balls become round-trippers — 11 percent). At home, Harang has given up a home run on eight of his 50 fly balls allowed (16 percent). On the road, he has allowed 3 homers on 22 fly balls (13.6 percent). Overall, Harang should have surrendered either 8 or 9 home runs instead of 11. So, his HR/FB rate would be 11.1% if he gave up eight HR and 12.5% if he allowed nine HR. Harang’s not a great fit for his home park, but expect fewer slow trots around the bases for the opposition.

This would be a good time to snag Harang — he’s available in the majority of leagues, and he hasn’t suddenly turned into a punching bag. That black cloud above Harang’s dome should dissipate soon.

It’s now summer by the American social clock (if not by the solstice calendar), and so you should be furiously checking your wire for injury replacements. It’s even time to start considering if a struggling player is ready to be dropped. We’re here to help.

Brett Myers, Astros (10% owned)
Myers is a flawed pitcher. He may never again reach the strikeout-per-inning numbers of his early career, and he’s lost some velocity off of those days as well. The good news is that the fastball was never his best pitch – in fact, it’s never even been a good pitch (-89.6 runs career, and never once positive by linear weights). He’s still got his nice curveball and slider, and he’s actually snapping that slider at a career pace (32% this year, 9.6% career). This will count as good news because not only is the pitch his best this year (+6.6 runs), but it’s also been his best non-curveball pitch in his career. If this ‘new’ Myers can stay healthy, he seems likely to continue to pitch to the talent level indicated by his 3.89 FIP. Flawed, but helpful in deep leagues. When his .324 BABIP comes down a little bit, his poor WHIP might even improve.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (11% owned)
Here’s another flawed player for your pleasure. In fact, it’s possible he’s over-owned for a shortstop with an underwhelming .209/.291/.322 line. Of course, his BABIP is .245 and should rise, especially since he’s relatively fleet of foot (5.6 career speed score, six stolen bases this year). In other good news, his contact rates are all up across the board, and his zone contact rate (93.4%) is actually okay. His good line drive rate (21.4%) suggests that he may even be able to better his ZiPs RoS (.250/.324/.348) and break 20 steals overall. If someone in your AL-only league dropped him, he can give you a little something from here on out. Just a little.

Jerry Hairston Jr, Padres (5% owned)
Boy, hit one grand slam and suddenly you’re on waiver lists, eh? Of all the numbers that we may cite about Hairston, however, there is one that is the most important once you get into deep enough leagues: seven. As in, Hairston has started seven straight games for the Padres. This, despite Everth Cabrera’s return from the disabled list. Hairston’s defense is scratch at best (-7.9 UZR/150 in 109 career games at the position), but right now his offense is perculating (10 for his last 26) and the team is winning. And anyway, it’s not like Cabrera was a whiz with the glove anyway (-11 UZR/150 in 127 games at the position). The Padres might best be served being honest about the talent level on their team, and going with the guy that could provide more value for longer in Cabrera, but that’s an argument for another space.

All ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports

Updates on three AL rotation spots…

Brett Anderson | Athletics | 76% owned

After missing a total of 35 days with a strained flexor tendon, Oakland’s young lefty made his triumphant return to the mound on Saturday. Limited to 70 pitches, Anderson struck out four Tigers and allowed just three hits (two singles and a double) in 5.2 scoreless innings, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes. Anderson’s ascent to greatness merely hit a speed bump with the injury, and ZiPS RoS projection sees a 3.54 FIP the rest of the way. He’ll be eased back into things over the next few weeks, but don’t hesitate to start him.

Max Scherzer | Tigers | 29%

One day after Anderson returned from injury, Scherzer returned from a minor league hiatus at the expense of Dontrelle Willis. To say the wake-up call worked would be an understatement. The former D-Back struck out 14 of the 24 men he faced, knocking close to ninth-tenths of a run off his ERA. Scherzer’s next two starts come at the Royals and at the White Sox, two pretty favorable matchups that should get him started on his way towards the 4.01 FIP and 8.47 K/9 ZiPS projects for the rest of the season. In an AL-only or deep mixed league, gimme gimme gimme. He’s a solid pickup in standard 12-team leagues as well.

Tim Wakefield | Red Sox | 4%

Josh Beckett’s back continues to be an issue, so the 43-year-old knuckleballer will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future. When it comes to fantasy, Wakefield’s only real value comes from wins, though you’ll occasionally luck into a six or seven or eight strikeout game. His next two starts come against the A’s (.310 team wOBA) and at Cleveland (generally awful), so there’s a chance for some cheap wins if you’re willing to live with the ERA and WHIP hits.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week Nine 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYM – Mike Pelfrey
CHC – Randy Wells
STL – PJ Walters
LAD – Charlie Haeger

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

LAD – John Ely
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny

In his last three starts Pelfrey has gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA. He has Quality Starts in eight of his 10 games and overall has a 2.54 ERA. In the offseason, Pelfrey added a split finger pitch, which he has thrown 18.2 percent of the time with good results (2.9 w/SF). But Pelfrey has also been the recipient of some good fortune. He has a 3.56 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP

Last year in his rookie season, Wells had a 3.05 ERA but a 4.24 xFIP. This year it has been the exact opposite, as his xFIP of 3.33 is significantly lower than his 4.79 ERA. After winning his first three decisions, Wells has struggled in May, as he has a 0-3 record with a 5.68 ERA in five starts this month. In his last outing against the Cardinals, Wells did not retire a batter and allowed six hits and five runs.

An 11th-round draft pick in 2006, Walters made his major league debut last year and has appeared in two games, one start, this season. Walters is a soft tosser but he throws five different pitches. Even though his average fastball speed is just 85.8 mph, it has been a successful pitch, with a 2.96 wFB/C. Walters throws his fastball 61.7 percent of the time. The pitch he throws the next most often is his changeup, which he uses 15.6 percent.

Currently on the disabled list with a foot injury, Haeger is scheduled to be activated for Tuesday’s start against the Diamondbacks. In his first start of the season, Haeger struck out 12 batters in 6 IP. But his other six appearances have been nothing special for the knuckleball pitcher. He checks in with an 0-4 record and an 8.49 ERA. While Haeger has 23 Ks in 23.1 IP, he also has 20 BB for a 7.71 BB/9.

Ah, a Friday before a long weekend rolls around, and it should be time for a waiver wire piece. How many of us are just furiously setting our lineups for a weekend away, though? Let’s instead take a look at a pitcher giving some people fits this year.

Brian Matusz is only owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues, and for good reason – he has had some clear faults that are plaguing him this year. While his strikeout rates (7.66 last year, 7.41 this year) and walk rates (2.82 last year, 3.29 this year) have been largely similar, and it’s easy to point to his inflated BABIP (.370) as the reason for the poor ERA this year, there is clearly more going on. Even taking into account his poor-ish strand rate (63.9%), ZiPs RoS calls for a 4.70 ERA, and it looks like we can blame his groundball rate for a good portion of that.

Matusz is only inducing 32.8% of his contact on the ground, and that is good for second-worst in the league (to Kevin Slowey). It’s not good to be a fly-ball pitcher in the American League, and in Baltimore in particular (1.616 park factor for home runs so far this year). There are some mitigating circumstances in this case, though. For one, Matusz was not a worm-burner extraordinaire in the minors, but he did put up an okay 48.1% career groundball percentage in his short time passing through the system. Also, only five qualifying pitchers in baseball last year had a groundball rate under 35%. The message there is that either Matusz will induce more groundballs or he won’t qualify for the ERA title.

Helpful, eh? Well, here’s something more interesting: it may have to do with his pitching mix and possibly his curveball in particular. That may seem strange to say about a pitch that he has only thrown about 10% of the time over his career, but the curveball was also his only positive pitch by linear weights this year. Why is he throwing less often this year if it was, by at least one statistic, the best pitch he had last year?

It seems he’s struggling with it. Last year the pitch found the strike zone 58.3% of the time and got 8.3% whiffs according to Texas Leaguers. This year those numbers are 52.5% and 6.1% accordingly. Since 8.5-9% is usually average for whiff rate, his curveball went from average to below-average in one offseason. Then again, his changeup is getting 21.7% whiffs this year, which is elite. Perhaps he really should just be throwing the changeup more. If so, the news that he’s throwing the changeup 18% of the time this year versus 12% of the time last year should be good news (according to Texas Leaguers / MLB data).

In any case, we have a guy with an above-average ability to strike people out, average control, and at least one elite pitch by whiff rates. Those good qualities are balanced by a poor groundball rate, and a pitching mix in flux. Here’s a bet that he does figure out that mix, brings that groundball rate into ‘average’ territory, the luck stats regress toward the mean, and Matusz magically becomes a better pitcher. That pitcher may only be a matchups pitcher in mixed leagues right now, but deep keeper league managers should take heart. There’s something to like about Matusz still.

This past off-season, the Los Angeles Dodgers shipped outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for pitching prospects Jon Link and John Ely. Pierre is playing good D on the South Side, but his wretched hitting (.254/.305/.286, .285 wOBA) makes him a sub-optimal starter. Ely, meanwhile, made his major league debut in late April and has since made opposing hitters look like Pierre clones — batters have a .226/.260/.301 triple-slash against the Matthew McConaughey doppelganger. Who is this guy, and will he continue to produce for L.A.?

A product of Miami (Ohio) University, Ely was popped in the third round of the 2007 draft. At the time the Pale Hose picked him, Baseball America gave the following assessment of Ely:

Ely is just 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, and he has a head jerk in his maximum-effort delivery. His stuff is hard to argue with, however. His 89-94 mph fastball and his vastly improved changeup both qualify as plus pitches, and his curve is an average offering. Though he lacks smooth mechanics, he throws strikes and has a resilient arm that never has given him problems.

After getting his feet wet in the pros in rookie ball that summer (56 IP, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.50 FIP), Ely made his full-season debut at High-A Winston-Salem in 2008. The former RedHawk attacked Carolina League hitters, striking out 8.3 per nine innings, walking 2.85 and posting a 4.02 FIP in 145.1 innings pitched. Though he served up 1.11 home runs per nine frames, Ely kept the ball on the ground with a 50.2 GB%. Following the season, BA praised Ely’s tumbling changeup and well-placed 88-94 MPH fastball, but cautioned that his curveball lacked consistency and that “there’s a lot of effort in his delivery.”

Bumped up to Double-A Birmingham in 2009, Ely had 7.2 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9 and a 3.33 FIP in 156.1 innings of work. He continued to induce grounders, with a 50.5 GB%. Prior to 2010, Baseball America noted that Ely’s fastball rarely cracked 90 MPH anymore, but contended that “his mid-70’s changeup is an equalizer.” Some concerns were voiced about his lack of a third consistent pitch — he experimented with a cut fastball/slider during the ’09 season to better handle lineups the second and third time around.

Ely opened this season at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he compiled a 12/8 K/BB ratio and allowed 6 runs in 18 IP. During his first six starts with the Dodgers, covering 39 innings, the 24-year-old has 7.38 K/9, 1.38 BB/9 and a 3.32 xFIP.

True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time. The change has garnered a strike 74.2 percent (60.7% MLB average), and it has been whiffed at 21.6 percent (12.6% MLB average). He’s also mixing in mid-80’s sliders/cutters, as well as a slooow 70 MPH curve.

Despite his modest stuff, Ely has managed to get swinging strikes 9.1 percent to this point (8-8.5% MLB average), while getting batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 29.1% (27.7% MLB average).

Heading into the season, neither ZiPS (5.53 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9, 5.29 FIP) nor CHONE (6.7 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9, 5.39 FIP) liked Ely’s chances of making a positive contribution at the big league level. Excellent start aside, owners should approach Ely with realistic expectations. Given his good, not great minor league track record and finesse repertoire, it would be best to view Ely as more of a pitcher capable of delivering league-average production than a breakout prospect.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Nine.

Jeremy Bonderman – After a rough April, Bonderman has rebounded with a strong May, posting a 1.33 ERA with 26 Ks and 7 BB in 27 IP. But it has not translated into Wins, as Bonderman picked up one victory in May and has a 2-2 record overall. Look for Bonderman to continue his strong pitching with matchups this week against the Indians and Royals, two teams with a combined 37-56 record. He could double his win total this week.

Rich Harden – It has been a roller coaster ride for Harden in his first season in Texas. At various times this year, Harden has had troubles with BB, HR and BABIP. The overall effect has been both a FIP and xFIP higher than his 5.14 ERA. Harden has a very good 8.82 K/9, but that is down from last year’s 10.91 rate. Additionally, he has a career high 54.2 FB%. So, while his HR/FB rate is a lower than average 9.1 percent, he still has allowed 7 HR in 49 IP. Bottom line, Harden is not pitching anywhere close to how he did in the second half of 2009, so do not risk him being active in a two-start week.

Ricky Nolasco – The story of the Spring was how Ricky Nolasco did not give up a walk until his final appearance. His control has carried over into the regular season, as Nolasco’s 1.60 BB/9 is the seventh-best mark in the majors. And while he is allowing fewer walks, he is also striking out fewer batters, over three per nine compared to a season ago. Not only is he allowing more balls in play, Nolasco’s FB% is up too, checking in at 44.1%. The end result is an ERA of 4.65. While he has been unlucky to the tune of 0.55 by both FIP and xFIP, Nolasco is not having the impact year many predicted. This week he faces the Brewers and Mets. Lifetime he is winless with an 11.81 ERA against Milwaukee and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA against New York so leave him on the bench if you have other options.

Ervin Santana – After starting the season 0-2 when he allowed 9 ER in 11.2 IP, Santana has been a much better pitcher. In his last six games he has thrown five Quality Starts. Santana’s K/9 is up to 8.09 for the season. He has been lucky with an 82.2 percent strand rate but he has favorable matchups this week against Kansas City and Seattle. While both of those starts are on the road, Santana has a 3.06 road ERA this year.

Hisanori Takahashi – The Japanese veteran started his career in the U.S. in long relief but did so well he earned a shot in the rotation, where he has pitched 12 scoreless innings. It remains to be seen if Takahashi will continue his success his second time through the league, but this week he gets a road start in Petco against a Padres team that has yet to face him and a home start against the Marlins. Takahashi is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in Citi Field, so he is a good pickup for his two-start week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Nine are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Verlander, Garza, Billingsley, Oswalt, Hudson, J. Garcia, Hanson, Pettitte, Liriano, Lackey, Vazquez, Buehrle, Ely, Arroyo, Fister, Myers, Blanton, Matusz, Vargas, Morrow, Blackburn, Correia, Cahill, Talbot, Gorzelanny, Hochevar, Robertson, Westbrook, Narveson, Ohlendorf, Bush, R. Lopez, Bannister, Atilano, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Seven pitchers and how they fared.

Ely – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (2 starts)
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. W, 8 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.342 WHIP (2)
Pavano – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 7.50 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. 2W, 8 Ks, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP

The Houston Astros don’t have much to celebrate these days. The club owns a 16-30 record, with a -73 run differential. They’re old, expensive and franchise players like Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman no longer figure to bring back top-shelf prospects in a trade. Years of player development neglect has left Houston with a dilapidated farm system boasting little outside of RHP Jordan Lyles, SS Jiovanni Mier and C Jason Castro. It could be years before the Astros emerge from the depths of the NL Central standings.

Right-handed starter Bud Norris was supposed to be one of the few Houston youngsters to make a positive impact on the big league club. A sixth round pick out of Cal Poly back in 2006, Norris notched 9.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in the minors, and he posted a 4.38 xFIP in 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Astros in 2009. Heading into 2010, I mentioned Norris (as well as Felipe Paulino) as a draft day sleeper:

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

At first glance, it looks like CHONE’s projection whiffed worse than Tommy Manzella at a slider. In 43.2 innings pitched, Norris has a 6.80 ERA. A closer inspection reveals reasons for optimism and continued frustration. The 25-year-old is far from a polished product, but his underlying skills suggest he’s still worth monitoring.

First, the good. Norris has whiffed 11.13 batters per nine innings this season, second-highest among starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched (Brandon Morrow is first). Bud’s garnering swinging strikes 10.9 percent of the time (8-8.5% MLB average), and his 73.8% contact rate is well below the 80-81% big league average.

But while Norris has often been dominant, his control remains scattershot. He has issued 5.36 BB/9, with just 43.8% of his pitches crossing the dish (48-51% MLB average in recent years). Bud’s getting behind hitters more than most, with a 56.6% rate of first pitch strikes. The big league average sits around 58%.

Even though Norris is being far too generous with the free passes, his xFIP is a useful 4.00. So, why is his ERA 2.8 runs higher?

For one, Bud has a .400 batting average on balls put in play. His line drive rate (25.6%) is very high, but it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions from that figure at this point. Even if you accept the premise that batters scorch the Norris offerings that they do make contact with, there’s no way that hits on balls in play continue to fall as if Bud were facing a team of Ty Cobbs. ZiPS projects a .334 BABIP for the rest of 2010. Norris has also stranded just 58.9% of base runners, well south of his 78 LOB% in 2009 and the typical 70-72% range for big league pitchers.

Right now, Norris is an aggravating blend of power and imprecision. He has also yet to prove that he can handle the workload of a major league starter — he missed time in 2008 with an elbow strain, was shut down a bit early last September with shoulder fatigue and he’ll apparently miss his scheduled start this Saturday due to biceps tendinitis.

With the injury concerns and inconsistency, Bud’s clearly not worth a roster spot right now. But don’t totally write him off. Beneath all the ugliness, there’s talent here.

Last year the baseball world was going crazy over Zack Greinke and deservedly so. After his start on May 26th, here was his fantasy line:

8 W, 0.84 ERA, 81 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Flash forward to 2009 and check out Ubaldo Jimenez through the same time span:

9 W, 0.88 ERA, 61 Ks, 0.925 WHIP

Greinke was a shade better but nevertheless we as baseball fans should be more wowed by Jimenez than we have been. Here on FanGraphs, we have had just one article between the fantasy side and the mainland on Jimenez, and that was a piece by R.J. Anderson that talked about four pitchers with ERAs under 1.00 in April. So it is like ¼ of a story on Jimenez.

Jimenez has been a fantastic fantasy pitcher so far in 2010. CBS Sports ranks him as the top fantasy player overall, as does Last Player Picked and the RotoTimes Player Rater.

My favorite Jimenez stat is his ERA+, which currently stands at 515. Of course with an ERA that low, you would imagine that his FIP and xFIP would tell a different story. While his ERA is 0.88 his FIP is 2.71 and his xFIP is 3.58, which still ranks 16th among qualified pitchers.

RoS ZiPS does not anticipate Jimenez coming anywhere close to his current pace. It projects an 11-9 record with a 3.84 ERA going forward. Those numbers seem pessimistic to me but last year Greinke went 8-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 161 Ks from May 27th through the end of the season.

My WAG on Jimenez for the rest of the season is:

13 Wins
2.50 ERA
125 Ks
1.200 WHIP

In the comments section, leave your projections for Jimenez from now until the end of the year. In the offseason, I will do a follow-up piece and acknowledge the person who made the best fantasy projection for Jimenez before his May 31st start.