Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Jose Contreras – In his first five starts of the season, Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA. Since then he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has pitched into the eighth inning in four of his last five starts. Contreras has his highest SO rate (6.18) since 2005 and his walk rate (2.82) is under three for the fourth straight year. His FIP checks in 84 points lower than his ERA. And while his BABIP is a touch low (.285) his 60.4 percent strand rate has room for improvement. Owned in only 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues, Contreras could be a good add for two starts this week.

Jon Garland – A free agent pickup by the Diamondbacks in the off-season, Garland has had a Jekyl-Hyde type season. In road games, Garland has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In home games, Garland checks in with a 7.51 ERA and 1.827 WHIP. He has eight starts each home and away. With two home games this week, sit Garland if you can.

Mike Pelfrey – He was very tough in May, with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. However, June was less kind as he posted a 6.39 ERA in five starts. His last start came Wednesday, the first day in July, and Pelfrey pitched 7.2 innings of scoreless ball along with six strikeouts. Historically, Pelfrey has done his best work in July and August, the only two months in his career where his ERA is below four. He gets two starts at Citi Field this week, where his ERA this year is ¾ of a run lower than his road mark.

Ricky Romero – While the pre-season hype surrounding a rookie Blue Jays pitcher was reserved for Brett Cecil, it has been Romero who has been the biggest contributor. Romero has an impressive 2.54 SO/BB ratio and a very nice 1.24 WHIP. The LHP from California has six straight Quality Starts and is working on a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Owned in just 22.4 percent of ESPN leagues, check your waiver wire and see if he is available to pick up and insert into your lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann – Our own David Golebiewski has a nice write-up of Zimmermann, one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season. However, you may want to sit him this week if possible. Zimmermann has two road starts in Week 14, and away from Nationals Park he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP. And not only are they road starts, but Zimmermann will take the mound in Colorado versus the second-highest scoring team in the National League and in Houston, where Minute Maid Park is one of the top HR parks in the majors this season.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Beckett, Vazquez, Gallardo, J.Johnson, Cain, Hamels, Wainwright, Weaver, Garza, Cueto, Millwood, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Harang, Baker, Pettitte, Happ, Smoltz, Kuroda, Meche, Marquis, Wells, Correia, Washburn, Bergesen, Zito, Hammel, Galarraga, West, Hampton, Vargas, W. Silva, G. Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, Sowers, Holland, Stammen, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 12 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cook – Advised to start. 2 W, 8 K 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Liriano – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 k, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Richmond – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP (1)
Wang – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (2)

While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.

Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.

In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.

Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.

You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.

Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Richmond
WAS – Zimmermann
TB – Niemann
OAK – Anderson
HOU – Hampton
WAS – Olsen
SD – Banks

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
HOU – Moehler
OAK – Gonzalez
WAS – Stammen
SD – LeBlanc

Richmond has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen his last six outings, with three appearances as each, alternating every other appearance as a starter and reliever. So while he’s listed right now for two starts it is not something you want to necessarily count on.

Zimmermann has a FIP over a full run lower than his ERA. He has been a very good strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.91 K/9 and his BB rate is very low, too, at 2.58 BB/9. He has a .331 BABIP and an unhealthy 24.5 percent line drive rate. When batters do make contact off him, 22 of their 71 hits go for extra bases.

Niemann is really getting hurt by walks. He has a .289 BABIP but a 1.47 WHIP, thanks to a 4.11 BB/9 ratio. On 6/3 he pitched a two-hit shutout with one walk but in his last outing he had four walks in four innings pitched. Lately he has kept the ball in the park. After allowing eight HR in his first nine games, Niemann has not allowed a homer in his last five games, a span covering 24.2 innings.

Anderson has poor overall numbers but it really could be even worse. He has a 1.70 HR/9 and a 59.7 percent strand rate. Batters have a .328 BABIP and a .307 average against him. After Anderson threw seven shutout innings on 6/4, he has an 0-2 record with an 8.59 ERA in his past three games.

Hampton is scheduled to come off the disabled list this week, as he is currently sidelined with a strained left groin. Currently he has a 1.59 K/BB ratio. If he maintains that pace for the rest of the season, it would be his best mark in the category since 1999.

Olsen has not pitched in the majors since May 16th because of shoulder tendinitis. His numbers were poor this year in eight starts in the majors. Four rehab starts in the minors were not any better.

Banks makes his first start in 2009 after making 14 for the Padres in 2008. Banks is not overpowering but the 6’3 righty throws about every pitch in the book. He is interesting simply for the fact that he gets two starts in Petco this week.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Brian Bannister gets two home starts this week, where he has an ERA over a full run lower than his road mark. The second start of the week also comes during a day game, where Bannister has performed better throughout his career. He has a lifetime 15-6 record in day games.

Kenshin Kawakami has a 3.59 BB/9 mark this season. But in his last seven games he has allowed just 12 walks in 40.2 innings and has thrown 62 percent of his pitches for strikes. In that span he has a 2.88 ERA. Kawakami is day-to-day after getting hit in the shoulder by a line drive in his last outing. Monitor his status and get him active if it looks like he will take the mound this week.

Brandon Morrow has had three starts to stretch out his arm. But this will be a good week to get him out of the lineup as he has to fly cross country to take on the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road. The lineups of those two teams are known for being patient and working the count, not a good sign for a pitcher with a 5.93 BB/9 ratio.

Fernando Nieve has helped keep the Mets alive with wins in each of his three starts. He has an unimpressive 1.44 K/BB ratio and a 91.8 percent strand rate. But his FIP is a solid 3.88 and Nieve has a 13.6 percent LD rate. This year in the minors, he had a 14 percent LD rate. So far, the Mets’ bats have come alive with Nieve on the mound, as they have scored five, six and 11 runs in his three starts. He squares off this week versus Braden Looper and Jamie Moyer, two pitchers with an ERA above five for the season, so his teammates should keep the runs coming for him.

Randy Wolf started the season strong but has had a June swoon. This month he is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and only 13 Ks in 26.2 innings. Wolf takes on the red-hot Rockies and the Padres this week. Normally a road start in Petco is a good thing for a pitcher’s numbers, but Wolf is 5-6 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP in 13 lifetime games in Petco after he was undefeated in four starts in Qualcomm Stadium.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Lincecum, Haren, Lester, Carpenter, Lilly, Oswalt, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Harden, Saunders, Jimenez, Nolasco, Duke, Porcello, Blackburn, Wolf, R. Johnson, Halladay (set to be activated from the DL on Monday – get him in the lineup), Arroyo, Blanton, Pavano, Ohlendorf, Padilla, Looper, Richard, Hochevar, Hill, Thompson, Moehler, G. Gonzalez, Geer, Burns, O’Sullivan, Stammen, LeBlanc, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 11 and how they did.

Correia – Advised to start. W, 12 K, 1.84 ERA, 0.34 WHIP (2 starts)
Meche – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to sit. W, 12 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to start. W, 11 K, 7.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)

Last evening, Cardinals righty Joel Pineiro put on a pitching clinic that would make Roy Halladay look downright inefficient by comparison. Tossing exactly 100 pitches in a complete game shutout against the Mets, Pineiro pounded the zone for 62 strikes while generating an absurd 22 groundball outs. We’re not yet half way through the 2009 season, yet the former Mariner and Red Sock has already eclipsed his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total for the last three years combined. From 2006-2008, Pineiro accumulated a total of 2.1 WAR. In ’09, the 30 year-old is already up to 2.5 WAR. That figure places him 13th among all starters.

How has Pineiro gone from roster flotsam to an important member of the Cardinals rotation? By calling upon a bowling ball-like sinker that has opposing batters chopping the ball into the dirt an astonishing 61.3% of the time (Pineiro’s career GB rate is 47.5%). That’s the highest rate of worm killers in the major leagues.

Pineiro’s fastball had long been a below-average offering. According to Fan Graphs’ run value pitch data, Pineiro’s heater has been worth -0.64 runs/100 pitches since 2002. And if anything, that’s understating the pitch’s lack of effectiveness: his fastball was worth -1.48 runs/100 in 2006, -1.19 in 2007 and -1.57 in 2008. In 2009, Pineiro’s fastball has a run value of +0.88 per 100 tosses, a dramatic reversal.

Looking at Pineiro’s Pitch F/X data, the change in his fastball has been dramatic. Take a gander at the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch over the past three seasons (X is horizontal movement- a negative number indicates movement in on the hands of a right-handed batter. Z is vertical movement. The lower the Z figure, the more downward break on the pitch compared to a ball thrown without spin):

2007: -4.3 X, 9.6 Z
2008: -5.5 X, 7.2 Z
2009: -7.0 Z, 5.3 Z

Pineiro sacrificed fastball speed (from 91 to 88 MPH) for movement, gaining nearly three inches of tailing action in on righties with over 4 more inches of sink. Pineiro has also whipped out an even livelier sinker at times. Pitch F/X shows him throwing a two-seamer 18% of the time, with 9.3 inches of break in on right-handed batters and just 3.7 inches of vertical movement.

The Puerto Rican native is missing next to no lumber (3.88 K/9, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified starters), but he has compensated with nearly spotless control on top of the grounders. Pineiro has issued just 1.17 walks per nine innings, the third-lowest figure among starters. He’s getting ahead 0-and-1 or inducing contact from the get-go: Pineiro’s 66.1 First-Pitch Strike% is well above the 58% MLB average and places fifth among starters.

Joel Pineiro is certainly not a sexy name among fantasy players, given the paucity of strikeouts that he generates. But that doesn’t mean he should be ignored, either. He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than the guy who took the hill in Seattle and Boston, unleashing a nasty sinker, generating weak contact and walking next to no one. Whether he can continue to get this many grounders while issuing so few walks remains to be seen, but Pineiro’s sinker gives him the chance to enjoy a nice second act to his career.

(Quick scheduling note: the “Closer Report”, which has been appearing on Wednesdays, will now be posted on Fridays. Sorry for any inconvenience.)

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ATL – Hanson
BOS – Penny
NYM – Hernandez
STL – Pineiro
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CLE – Pavano

Hanson is coming off a six scoreless inning performance. Considering how much trouble he has had with both walks (5.09 BB/9) and homers (1.53 HR/9) it is surprising how he sits with a 2-0 record. His FIP is 5.78 after three starts but Hanson has had basically one bad inning so far, back in his first start when he gave up two homers and four runs to the Brewers.

Penny figured to be the odd man out when John Smoltz returned from the disabled list but the combination of his continued solid pitching, along with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s poor performance has given Penny another life. In his last six outings, Penny is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.

Hernandez may be the Mets’ best pitcher right now. And that is equal parts reflective of how poor the team’s other pitchers have been lately along with how well Hernandez has pitched. In 13 starts this year, he has had just three bad outings and he has posted seven Quality Starts this year. Hernandez’ main problem has been the gopher ball. He has allowed 11 homers in 79.2 innings and seven of those came in the three bad starts.

Pineiro has a .321 BABIP to go along with a 62.7 percent strand rate. His success this year has come thanks to a microscopic walk rate (1.18 BB/9) and an even smaller home run rate (0.22 HR/9). Still he leads the National League with eight losses and the Cardinals have scored three runs or less for him in nine of his 13 starts. He gets an average of 3.71 runs per game but it is only that high thanks to a 12-run outburst in one game.

Huff has an 11-5 record the past two seasons in Triple-A but has found major league hitters harder to handle. He has advanced to the sixth inning just one time in seven outings. His 7.09 ERA comes along with a 1.64 WHIP and a 1.91 HR/9 ratio.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 12.

Trevor Cahill has allowed three runs or less in six straight games and the rookie has had just two bad starts all season out of 14 games. He gets two home starts this week where he has pitched much better. In McAfee Coliseum, Cahill’s ERA is over half a run lower, his K/9 is nearly double and his WHIP is a fancy 1.184, compared to 1.753 on the road. Owned in less than three percent of ESPN leagues, Cahill is a nice pickup for this two-start week.

Aaron Cook in his last 11 games has a 6-2 record with a 3.18 ERA. Early in the year, the sinkerball pitcher had trouble getting grounders, as he was giving up more fly balls than normal. But in his last six games, Cook has induced 98 grounders compared to 42 fly balls. He is still having a little trouble with allowing HRs (16.2% HR/FB) but Cook has two road starts this week at Anaheim and at Oakland where he will face two of the three worst HR-hitting teams in the American League.

Francisco Liriano has gone seven straight games without a win. He has experienced some bad luck this year, which he has compounded with the highest walk and HR/9 rates of his career. He faces Milwaukee and St. Louis this week, two of the top four HR-hitting squads in the National League. The Brewers are also one of the most patient teams in the league, just six walks behind the league leader. Give Liriano the week off.

Scott Richmond is coming off his best outing of the season, in which he gave up just one run in eight innings while he fanned 11 batters. He has home starts this week against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. But Richmond struggles against LHB, who have an .894 OPS against him and have hit nine of the 10 HR he has allowed. Jay Bruce (15 HR vs RHP) and Laynce Nix (all 7 HR vs RHP) can go deep on any righty and Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are no fun, either. So keep Richmond on the bench this week.

Chien-Ming Wang has been the punch line to a bad joke through the entire season so far. But Wang is slowly working his way back into shape. In his last outing, he went five innings for the first time all year and his 91 pitches were a season-high. It was also his best start in getting his trademark ground balls as he induced 12 grounders compared to five fly balls. Wang gets two starts on the road this week, which might help just from a psychological standpoint. He is owned in 69 percent of CBS Sports leagues but is currently a starter in just 26 percent. I like him to finally crack the win column this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Zambrano, Greinke, Vazquez, Jackson, Dempster, Danks, Scherzer, Price, Kuroda, Pavano, Palmer, Uehara, Sanchez, A. Miller, Wellemeyer, Lannan, Snell, Suppan, Moyer, Harrison, Owings, Redding, Gaudin, Ortiz, Olseon.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 10 and how they did.

Anderson – Advised to start. 11 K, 10.24 ERA, 2.07 WHIP (2 starts)
Feldman – Advised to start. 3 K, 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 7 K, 7.36 ERA, 2.09 WHIP (2)
Pettitte – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 8 K, 8.71 ERA, 2.13 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Sabathia
MIL – Gallardo
TEX – Millwood
TOR – Romero
MIN – Perkins

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Liriano
NYY – Wang
TEX – Mathis

Sabathia reeled off five straight Quality Starts but has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts. Sabathia’s FIP (3.74) is almost identical to his ERA (3.68). He has an interesting mix as his BABIP sits at a low .261 but his strand rate is just 69.2 percent. Sabathia is one of the few pitchers seemingly not affected by the homer explosion at new Yankee Stadium. He has allowed just three HR in 42 IP at home this season.

Gallardo has allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his 12 starts this year. However, he has been lucky with a .243 BABIP and an 81.2 percent strand rate. Gallardo’s velocity has rebounded and his K/9 sits at a nice 8.88. Besides walks, his other ratios are in line with, or better than, what he did in 2006. Gallardo is doing everything owners could have reasonably hoped for coming into the season.

Millwood keeps pitching well despite, well, everything. In his last outing he pitched into the eighth inning without allowing a run despite striking out only one batter. His FIP is two runs above his ERA, his strikeout rate is at a career low and he has his highest home run rate since 2001. And according to CBS Sports, he is the 51st-best fantasy player in 2009.

Romero currently has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. ZiPS is not impressed. For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Romero to finish with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. It just goes to show what an 86.4 percent strand rate can do for a fellow.

Perkins has not pitched in the majors since May 18th due to a sore elbow. He has made two rehab starts in Class-A, going seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts on June 9th. He gets home starts this week against Pittsburgh and Houston, two below-average teams in terms of runs scored and the bottom two squads in the NL Central.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Kevin Correia – Coming off back-to-back wins, Correia gets two home starts in Petco this week. And he also squares off against Seattle and Oakland, two below-average run scoring teams, with Seattle being last in the AL with a 3.77 runs per game average. Correia is owned in only seven percent of CBS Sports leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two starts this week.

Gil Meche – Slowed part of the season by a sore back, Meche has turned in three straight solid outings, in which he has 20 strikeouts in 20 IP with a 1.35 ERA in that span. However, he is just 1-0 in those three games, indicative of the poor run support he has received in 2009. The Royals have scored two runs or fewer in six of his 13 starts this year. Make Meche active for his two home starts this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After starting the season 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA, Rodriguez has allowed 19 runs in his last 20.2 IP. His ERA now stands at 2.82 and only six unearned runs in that stretch kept it from being even worse. His road ERA is 3.74, over 1.5 runs higher than his home mark, and he has starts this week at Texas and at Minnesota. Pull him from your lineup this week.

Tim Wakefield – He has a great record this year despite some uneven pitching. But he is coming off back-to-back Quality Starts and he has two home starts in Interleague matchups scheduled this week. Since 2006, Wakefield is 6-2 in Interleague play. Make sure he is active this week.

Barry Zito – After some tough luck earlier in the season, Zito has picked up two consecutive wins despite not pitching all that well. He has two home starts this week and Zito gets the nod to start due to his big home/road split in 2009. This year he has a 2.70 ERA with a 2.44 K/BB ratio at home compared to a 5.26 ERA and a 1.25 K/BB ratio in road games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Wainwright, Zambrano, Jurrjens, Harang, Lackey, Kershaw, Liriano, Danks, Volstad, Pavano, Pelfrey, Braden, Wang, D. Davis, Bush, Niemann, Guthrie, De La Rosa, Martis, Morton, Mathis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 9 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 7 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2 starts)
Blanton – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Burnett – Advised to sit. W, 8 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Duke – Advised to sit. W, 0 K, 1.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to start. 9 K, 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)

Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90’s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.

While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.

In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).

At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).

The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).

Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.

There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!

That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.