Archive for Starting Pitchers

Two youngsters that found themselves back in their team’s rotations this coming week…

Travis Wood | Reds | 31% owned

I think the Reds may have surprised everyone with all of their young pitching this year, and Wood is a big reason why. The southpaw has put up some strong peripherals (7.22 K/9, 2.35 BB/9) in his nine starts with the Reds, but his .211 BABIP isn’t going last forever. That said, it wouldn’t be unheard of if that level of luck stayed true right through the end of the season. Whether or not you want to risk on it is your call, but Wood is certainly servicable with the right matchups. He starts tomorrow at the Giants, and Cincy’s schedule features a whole lotta games against the Pirates, Padres, and Astros next month.

Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 2%

One phenom goes on the disabled list, another comes off it. Zimmermann returns after missing most of the season due to Tommy John surgery, and will make his first start of 2010 this coming Thursday. The righthander was outstanding in 16 starts for the Nats last year, striking out a touch more than a man per inning while walking just under three per nine, but some bad BABIP (.339) and LOB% (67.5%) luck had his ERA at 4.63 (3.59 FIP, 3.39 xFIP). I wouldn’t expect the same level of dominance this year this close to surgery, but the strikeouts should be there. With September call-ups right around the corner and some luck from an essentially league average defense, his ERA could end up in the 3.00’s in September. That Thursday start comes at home against the Cardinals.

Quick Notes: The Yankees recalled Ivan Nova to make a few starts as they rest their regular rotation in advance of the stretch run, and he’ll start against either the White Sox or Athletics next weekend/early next week. With the Yanks offense and bullpen, it’s a decent opportunity to steal a win … both Nick Blackburn (minors) and Rich Harden (DL) are back in their respective rotations, but proceed at your own risk.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Nick Blackburn

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Francisco Liriano
NYY – Dustin Moseley

With Liriano battling a tired arm, the Twins moved his start back three days, making Blackburn a two-start pitcher this week. Minnesota recalled Blackburn from Triple-A, where he made four starts and put up a 2.49 ERA. Blackburn was toiling in the minors because he had a 6.66 ERA in the majors. In 10 games during June and July, Blackburn was 1-6 with a 10.05 ERA. In that span he had allowed 11 HR in 43 IP and had 14 BB and 18 Ks. Additionally, batters had a .381 BABIP.

Previously Blackburn survived despite a low strikeout rate due to his miniscule walk rate and his ability to keep the ball in the park. All three metrics moved in the wrong direction this year. His K/BB ratio, which had been 2.46 and 2.39 the previous two seasons, sits at 1.30, which would be the second-worst mark in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

Similarly, Blackburn had consistent HR/9 marks the past two seasons. In 2008 he had a 1.07 mark and it was 1.09 last year. But in 2010, Blackburn has allowed 19 HR in 104 IP for a 1.64 HR/9. And this is with his FB% being a career-low 33.8 percent. Blackburn has a 14.1 HR/FB mark in 2010.

Not surprisingly, batters are hitting everything Blackburn throws to the plate. All four pitches he throws have a negative Pitch Type Value and batters have a 93.5 Contact% versus him, including a 96.2 Z-Contact%.

Blackburn had a sore knee during Spring Training and complained of a sore arm during the middle of April. But there were no injury reports during his rough patch in June and July.

His peripherals also show a bad pitcher, although one significantly better than what he has been in 2010. Blackburn’s FIP this year is 5.69 and his xFIP is 5.09 for the year. His velocity is right where it has been previously. The big problem is his command. Without overpowering stuff, Blackburn needs to be able to place his pitches precisely. He has not done that in 2010 and so far has paid the price.

Wilson Betemit, Royals (Owned in 2% of Yahoo Leagues)

It has been an awfully long time since Betemit signed (illegally) with the Atlanta Braves as a 14-year-old Dominican shortstop in 1996. He was once Atlanta’s organizational golden child, ranking as eighth-best prospect in the game (according to Baseball America) prior to 2002. Betemit has since donned Dodger blue and pinstripes of both the Bronx and South Side variety. Now a 28-year-old with dubious defensive qualifications, the switch-hitter is keeping third base warm for Mike Moustakas following the Alberto Callaspo trade.

In 175 plate appearances for K.C., Betemit has a .342/.423/.559 triple-slash and a .424 wOBA. He’s not gonna keep a .421 BABIP, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit at a level that’s slightly above the big league average. In 1,450 career PA, Betemit has batted .268/.336/.447, which translates to a .336 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He’ll occasionally take a seat against left-handed pitching, and his D (-13 UZR/150 in 1,885 innings at 3B) won’t endear him to Ned Yost. But ZiPS projects Betemit for a moderately useful .266/.329/.422 for the rest of the season.

Homer Bailey, Reds (8%)

With Mike Leake bullpen-bound in an effort to limit his innings and Johnny Cueto serving a suspension for kicking Jason LaRue in the head during a skirmish with the Cardinals, Bailey got a spot-start for Cincy on August 15th. The 24-year-old whiffed four Fish and walked none, tossing six scoreless frames. Bailey got another start versus the Dodgers on the 20th and shined once again (7 IP, 6/2 K/BB, 1 run).

Few players have frustrated fantasy players more than the seventh pick in the 2004 draft, and Bailey missed nearly three months with right shoulder inflammation this season. But when on the bump, he has performed decently — in 63.2 innings pitched, he’s got 7.21 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 4.35 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether the change sticks, but Bailey has displayed better control and is getting ahead in the count more often (61.5 first pitch strike percentage, compared to a mid-fifties mark from 2007-2009 and a 58-59% MLB average). There are no guarantees here, given Homer’s injury issues and the possibility that he does get bumped to the ‘pen. Still, he’s making progress and possesses more upside than most waiver wire fodder.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

R.A. Dickey – It’s been a great season overall for the 35-year-old Dickey but he has been outstanding in Citi Field, where he has a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA. With two home starts this week, Dickey should be in everyone’s lineup.

Jason Hammel – Since July 16th, Hammel is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA. But six of those seven starts have come on the road. In Coors Field this year, Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA. With two home starts this week, look for Hammel to get back in the win column.

Hiroki Kuroda – The past two months, Kuroda is 1-6. Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has posted lower-than-average HR/FB rates. But in his last few starts, he has allowed 3 HR in 25 IP. This week he has road starts in Milwaukee and Colorado, two of the three best HR parks in the National League. Put Kuroda on the bench this week.

Colby Lewis – In his last six starts, Lewis is 0-5 yet his ERA has dropped five points to 3.37 for the season. He gets two home starts this week, where he is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA for the year. Look for Lewis to pick up at least one win this week and make sure he is in your lineup.

Clayton Richard – He has been piling up victories recently despite not pitching all that well. But his last four starts have all been on the road. Richard gets two home starts this week and the friendly confines of Petco should help out. Richard should be in your active roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, J. Johnson, T. Hudson, Hamels, Cain, Liriano, Pavano, Floyd, Lackey, E. Santana, Myers, Morrow, Shields, Volquez, G. Gonzalez, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Kazmir, Blanton, Guthrie, Norris, Porcello, Bonderman, Fister, Harden, Moseley, Ohlendorf, Bush, Lannan, Chen, Rzepczynski, R. Lopez, Lohse, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Hughes – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.417 WHIP (2 starts)
Leake – Advised to sit. W, 8.38 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.862 WHIP (2)
Mazzaro – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Padilla – Advised to start. W, 11.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. W, 1.93 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)

It’s Friday, you’re ducking out the door early, and you got somewhere to be and some adult beverages to drink. That makes sense. But here are a couple waiver wire candidates to ponder while you are still supposed to be pretending to work.

Carlos Lee, Houston (77% owned)
He’s 34, overweight at best, and in the middle of a very obvious and painful decline. His HR/FB, line drive rate, and ISO have all dropped off precipitously in the last three years. Let’s not mince words. But he’s hitting better recently – .277 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last thirty days – and he has some regression coming in his favor, too. Even for a low-BABIP player (.287 career BABIP), his current .244 BABIP would be the worst of his career. That should normalize, even if, not surprisingly, his line drive rate is currently the second-worst of his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot – that part of his game has remained steady (10.1% this year, 12.9% career) – so all those balls he puts in play should help the BABIP regression along. He’s still 70 or so plate appearances away from having a reliable ISO, so his career-worst ISO (.161) has a chance to grow over the next few weeks as well. He’s pretty much a DH in the field, and without his power he will be nigh useless, but owners looking for an offensive shot in the arm from their bench should look his way. El Caballo will trot around the bases a few more times before he’s turned into glue.

Chris Young, San Diego (7% owned)
Young is having shoulder troubles, and that’s never good. But supposedly he’s pain free and ready to pitch a simulated game this weekend, which would have him on track to join the major league rotation in early September. It’s not immediately obvious who would drop from the rotation, but the Padres have talked about limiting the innings for Mat Latos (so great he only needs one ‘t’) and his young arm, so he could spot start there. Also, Kevin Correia has oscillated between starting and relieving over his career, and is currently sporting a 4.64 FIP. Young has never relieved and has a career 4.22 FIP even after all the damage he’s put on his career numbers with his recent injury-addled performances. The point is, the team could use him, and if he’s finally healthy again, maybe he can find his old control (3.5 BB/9 career, over four the last three years) that makes his stuff play better. We know Young likes PetCo – his 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there in 255.1 innings is almost reason enough to pick up Young and stash him on your deep league disabled list.

A four-pitch lefty taken fourth overall in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz shredded minor league bats during his pro debut — in 113 innings split between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, the San Diego star whiffed 9.5 batters per nine frames, walked 2.5 per nine and compiled a 3.02 FIP. Matusz reached the Charm City less than a year after he and the Orioles agreed on a major league contract worth a little more than $3.4 million. He placed fifth on Baseball America’s list of the best farm talents in the game prior to 2010, and Matusz recently ranked #44 in Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. Suffice it to say, Matusz comes with quite the prospect pedigree.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll emerge as a valuable commodity to the O’s and fantasy owners alike, Matusz holds a 5.11 ERA through his first 32 starts at the big league level. Now that the 23-year-old has pitched at the highest level for a little more than a year, this seems like a good time to examine what the former Torero needs to do to avoid getting gored by hitters.

Matusz has 7.12 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 in 174.1 innings pitched. While he showed slight ground ball tendencies during his short stay in the minors (48.1 GB%), the 6-5 southpaw has gotten grounders just 35.4% of the time in the majors. That has led to his giving up 1.08 homers per nine innings, despite a home run per fly ball rate (8.5%) that’s below the 10-11% MLB average. All of those fly balls are concerning, given that Camden Yards increased the rate at which flies turn into souvenirs by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Matusz had given up home runs on fly balls at an average rate (11%) on the road and 13% at home, he would have served up over a homer and a half per nine innings instead.

In a couple of other respects, however, Matusz has been unlucky. He’s got a .331 BABIP, which is very high for any starter, much less an extreme fly ball pitcher. While the flies that aren’t caught are generally quite harmful, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. Matusz’s BABIP on flies is .165, while the AL average is closer to .140. He also has a .781 BABIP on line drives, compared to the .720-.730 AL average. We don’t yet have enough information to say whether that’s noise or something more significant, but odds are his BABIP falls.

His rate of stranding runners on base (68.6%) my creep into the low-70’s, too — based on this formula developed by Dave Studeman, Matusz’s LOB rate should be closer to 71%. Overall, Matusz’s expected 4.65 FIP (xFIP), based on his rate of K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA.

Matusz has gone to his 90-91 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, adding in a low-80’s changeup (19%), a mid-70’s curveball (10%) and a low-80’s slider (8%). That expansive repertoire has garnered swinging strikes at a near-average clip (8.3%). He’s putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone — 54.3% last year (49.3% MLB average in ’09) and 49.2% this season (46.8% MLB average). Opponents are making contact with those in-zone offerings just 85.5% (87-88% MLB average). However, they’re getting the bat on the ball often when swinging at pitches thrown off the plate. Matusz’s O-Contact rate was 65.7% last season (61.7% MLB average in ’09) and it’s 73.9% in 2010 (66.6% MLB average).

Against fellow lefties, Matusz is a monster (11.47 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP). Right-handers, by contrast, aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing him (5.93 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 5.06 xFIP). Check out his whiff rates by pitch type versus lefties and righties, from TexasLeaguers.com:

Keep in mind that the sample sizes aren’t massive here. That being said, opposite-handed hitters haven’t been fooled near as much, especially against Matusz’s fastball.

Brian Matusz remains a keeper-league favorite, but he’ll have to overcome his fly ball proclivities and find a way to make righties come up empty more often to take the next step in his career.

James McDonald, Pirates (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

I took an in-depth look at McDonald a couple of weeks before the Dodgers shipped the lanky right-hander to the Bucs (along with OF prospect Andrew Lambo) in exchange for reliever Octavio Dotel. The article’s main point still stands:

At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome.

However, McDonald’s career prospects brightened considerably following that deadline deal. In L.A., he was an out-of-favor option for the back of the rotation. In Pittsburgh, he’s arguably the most talented arm on the staff. The 25-year-old has impressed his new club so far, posting a 20/4 K/BB ratio and surrendering five runs in 17.2 innings pitched. He’s sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a sharp 12-to-6 curve and a fading changeup.

Don’t get carried away — it’s just three starts, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection (7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.77 FIP) isn’t spectacular. But McDonald now has a clear shot at regular starts, and he’s young and gifted enough to garner interest in NL-only leagues.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (24%)

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft boasts excellent secondary skills, and he’s taking and raking so far in the majors. Alvarez is batting .255/.339/.453 in 218 plate appearances, walking 11.5% of the time and posting a .198 Isolated Power. That’s good for a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Pedro’s powerful cuts have come with plenty of whiffs, though — he’s just shy of Mark Reynolds territory with a 35.9% K rate and a 68% contact rate.

Still, as Reynolds, Adam Dunn and other hitters with Herculean pop prove, strikeouts don’t preclude a batter from being highly successful. This 23-year-old Vanderbilt product might not top the .250 range, but his patience and power make him worth a roster spot in mixed leagues.

Three guys coming off the disabled list and going back into their team’s rotations…

Homer Bailey | Reds | 5% owned

Out since May with shoulder inflammation, Bailey returned to the bump yesterday and fired six scoreless innings against the Marlins. He struck out four and walked none, though earlier in the season his BB/9 was over three-and-a-half. (R) ZiPS isn’t a fan, forecasting a 5.10 ERA with just 6.90 K/9 the rest of way, though I think Bailey could beat that and post an ERA in the mid-4.00’s with a strikeout rate closer to eight per nine. If you matchup him up against impatient teams that swing-and-miss a lot, he could give your club a real nice boost (think of it as Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. The Blue Jays Syndrome). Bailey’s next two outings come at the Dodgers and at the Giants.

Derek Holland | Rangers | 2%

Holland came back from his shoulder and knee issues just in time to take the place of the DL-bound Rich Harden, and will start Wednesday against the Rays. The hard throwing lefthander misses enough bats and doesn’t walk many, but he’s proven to be very homer prone in his short time in the big leagues. (R) ZiPS sees an unfriendly 5.40 ERA and 6.60 K/9, though I definitely think the strikeouts are a little light. The Rangers will win him a ton of games because of their offense and bullpen, so Holland still has fantasy value as a fifth or sixth kind of starter.

Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 8%

Brad Penny isn’t coming back anytime soon and Jeff Suppan has mercifully been put to sleep placed on the DL, so Lohse is back from a forearm issue to drive Cardinals’ fans mad. He had his patented fourth inning meltdown yesterday against the Cubs (charged with five runs without recording an out in the frame). Lohse has always had good stuff, but his 3.78 ERA (3.89 FIP) year in 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb from the rest of his career. I wouldn’t touch him even in extremely deep or NL-only leagues.

Quick Notes: The Mets recalled Pat Misch but he’s non-rosterable … Jhoulys Chacin is going to fill-in for the injured Jeff Francis, and I’d expect more of what he did earlier in the year (4.04 ERA, 9.73 K/9) the rest of the way. Jump on it.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Considering that Cincy sits a game up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and has a three-in-four-shot of making the playoffs according to CoolStandings, chances are we’re going to experience a Red October for the first time since 1995. While the Big Red Machine doesn’t have a stealth submarine on hand, the club does hope that the mended Edinson Volquez can be a secret weapon down the stretch. Six starts into his comeback, Volquez is displaying his typical bat-missing ability while understandably showing some rust as well.

The former DVD member scuffled in big cameos with the Texas Rangers from 2005-2007, striking out 6.2 batters per nine innings, walking 4.7 per nine and serving up 1.6 HR/9. His xFIP was 5.34. But he broke out upon being dealt to the Reds (along with Danny Herrera) for Josh Hamilton in December of 2007. Volquez posted a 3.88 xFIP in 196 innings during his first foray in the NL, with 9.46 K/9 and 4.27 BB/9. He got swinging strikes 11% of the time (8.4-8.6% MLB average recently), with a 73.8% contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Edinson’s brilliant work was worth 4.3 wins.

Unfortunately, Volquez would make just nine starts the following year. He wasn’t near the same dominant arm, putting up rates of 8.52 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP in 49.2 frames. His swinging strike (10%) and contact (74.8%) figures remained stellar, but he just couldn’t locate. Volquez placed only 41.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average that year), compared to 49.6% in 2008 (51.1% MLB average). As a percentage of the big league average, his zone rate went from 97.1 in ’08 to a paltry 84.2 in ’09. Volquez was placed on the DL with lower back spasms in mid-May, but the big blow came after an aborted one-inning start against the Cards on June 1st. He needed Tommy John Surgery, as well as a repair of his flexor mass tendon.

Volquez’s rehab drew national headlines in April, as he was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Clomid, an estrogen-blocking drug banned by Major League Baseball. Since he was out of action, the suspension cost Volquez cash (a little more than $130,000) but not actual game time. In 31 innings pitched between High-A Lynchburg and Triple-A Louisville, Volquez compiled a 28/8 K/BB ratio and surrendered just five runs.

The 27-year-old got the big league call in mid-July and has tossed 29.2 innings so far. Volquez has struck out over a batter per inning (9.1 K/9), with a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 69.6% contact rate. But he’s also walking the yard (6.37 BB/9), the result of putting just 36% of his pitches in the zone (46.9% MLB average). That’s 76.8% of the big league average. Overall, his xFIP is 4.69.

While the sample size is small, Volquez has gotten grounders 56% of the time (44.5% prior to this season). Changes in ground ball rate gain some significance at 150 batters faced, so that’s worth watching for a guy making his home starts in a park that inflates HR production by 22 percent for lefty batters and 35 percent for right-handers.

In terms of stuff, Volquez is sitting at a typical 93-94 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs 9% of the time with the pitch (6% MLB average). It appears as though he has nearly scrapped his slider in favor of a 77 MPH curveball, which is garnering whiffs 15% (11.6% MLB average). Volquez’s low-80’s changeup has a 20.5% whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). Of course, finding home plate has been an issue — the fastball has a 58.7% strike rate (60-62% MLB average), the curve sits at 50.4% (58%) and the change 55.6% (60.7%).

Given that we’re dealing with a month’s worth of starts, it’s best not to put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. But to this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool. Pitch F/X whiff and strike numbers from TexasLeaguers.

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KAN – Zack Greinke
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
CLV – Jeanmar Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Adam Wainwright
COL – Jeff Francis
CLV – Josh Tomlin

Last year Greinke was the toast of the baseball world and this year he sits with a 7-11 record. There are three main reasons for the differences between the two seasons. First, Greinke is striking out fewer batters this year. After posting a 9.50 K/9 a year ago, Greinke has a 7.59 rate this season. Next, his home run rate has doubled from 2009, although last year was the outlier. This season’s 0.84 HR/9 is more in line with his lifetime 0.94 rate. Finally, after posting a 79.3 LOB% in 2009, Greinke is below average with a 65.5 strand rate this season.

After three starts in Triple-A to stretch out his arm, Chacin returns to the Rockies’ rotation after spending most of July pitching out of the bullpen. With four pitches, Chacin profiles as a starting pitcher but he needs to get his walk rate under control. While he has an impressive 9.73 K/9, he has a disappointing 4.15 BB/9, which would be the fifth-worst mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. In seven games this year in the minors, Chacin has a 4.29 BB/9.

Gomez made headlines when he threw a perfect game for the Double-A Akron Aeros. After going 8-8 in Triple-A this year, Gomez has been a perfect 3-0 since joining Cleveland the third week of July. Gomez has a poor strikeout rate (4.63 K/9) but he gets groundballs (1.61 GB/FB), does not walk anyone (1.93 BB/9) and keeps the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9). Gomez has a 1.54 ERA but a 3.52 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP.