For the past two years, Jorge de la Rosa has improved in all four fantasy categories for a starting pitcher. Of course, that was a relatively easy thing for him to do, given how poor he was in 2007. Still, last year de la Rosa finished in the top 20 in both Wins and Ks. Given how fantasy players love to get “the next big thing,” you might think de la Rosa would be a hot commodity in mock draft season. But you would be wrong.

Instead, the Rockies pitcher sits with an ADP of 180. Recently, Razzball unveiled its 2009 end of season fantasy player rater and de la Rosa ranked 131. The mockers are not buying that number and instead forecast that he will not repeat, much less improve upon, his fine numbers from a year ago. Part of it may be the stigma of being a pitcher in Colorado and part of it may be the poor ERA and WHIP numbers.

Either way, it looks like we may have the new Ted Lilly. For several years now, fantasy owners have undervalued Lilly, despite a very good K rate and strong Win totals. Even after posting a 3.10 ERA last year, Lilly still appears to be a bargain, with a current ADP of 149.

Last year, de la Rosa finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The ERA placed 65th while the WHIP was tied for 59th out of 77 qualified pitchers. Fantasy owners do not want to pay for Wins and shy away from de la Rosa because he is poor in two of the three remaining categories.

At the All-Star break, de la Rosa had a 5.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. But his final 15 starts of the year, he was a different pitcher. In the second half, de la Rosa was 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He gave up the same number of HR in the second half in 8.1 fewer innings. The improvement appears to be all WHIP-related.

After having a 4.28 BB/9 in the first half, de la Rosa followed up with a 3.67 mark after the break. And his BABIP was .301 in the second half, after starting off the year with a .327 mark. In his final 15 games, he had 10 starts where he gave up two or fewer runs.

The turnaround actually started even earlier for de la Rosa, who started the season 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA. He went 16-3 with a 3.94 ERA over the final four months of the season, which matches up almost perfectly to when Jim Tracy took over as the team’s manager.

In July, de la Rosa credited his turnaround to his two-seam fastball and throwing more first-pitch strikes, although the numbers do not necessarily support this claim. While his F-Strike% of 55.9 was up from a year ago, it was lower than it was in 2007. And TexasLeaguers.com shows him throwing his two-seam fastball at just 2.4 percent for the year.

Either way, it is easy to read too much into second half numbers. One needs only to recall the second half of 2008 and then 2009 for Ricky Nolasco to remember this lesson. But de la Rosa does not need a 3.46 ERA or a 1.30 WHIP to be a big bargain at his current ADP.

Anecdotally, we can all remember lefties that discovered control and success later than normal, including Randy Johnson, Al Leiter and Sandy Koufax. But while there is no proof that lefties develop later than righties, it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that de la Rosa could be another late bloomer. If he can continue to throw strikes like he did in the second half, de la Rosa could wind up as one of the top pitchers in baseball.

St. Louis Cardinals signed LHP Rich Hill to a minor league contract.

The memories of Hill’s 2006 and 2007 seasons with the Chicago Cubs become hazier with each passing day. The 6-5 left-hander with the slow, looping curveball had a 4.51 xFIP in 99.1 innings during ’06, whiffing 8.15 batters per nine frames and walking 3.53 per nine. In Triple-A that year, he terrorized the PCL to the tune of 12.15 K/9, 1.89 BB/9 and a 1.67 FIP in 100 IP. 2007 was even better, as Hill logged 195 frames with the Cubs. He posted rates of 8.45 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9, with a 4.13 xFIP.

The University of Michigan product was an extreme fly ball hurler (34 GB% from 2006-2007), but his high-80’s heater had positive run values both seasons (+0.22 runs per 100 pitches in ’06, +0.66 in ’07), while his curve rated as -0.26 in ’06 and +0.53 in ’07.

Then, the wheels fell off. Hill scarcely pitched in 2008, as he was sidelined with back problems. He issued 18 free passes in 19.2 innings with Chicago, and walked 44 batters in 47.2 IP between Rookie Ball, High-A and Triple-A.

Shipped to the Orioles last February, Hill missed the first two months of the season with a left elbow strain and continued to have Blassian issues finding the strike zone. In 57.2 frames with Baltimore, Hill struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings but walked an obscene 6.24 per nine. His xFIP was 5.69, as he tossed a first-pitch strike just 46.9 percent of the time (58-59% MLB average). That was the lowest rate among all big league pitchers throwing at least 50 innings. In August, Hill went under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

Thirty years old in March, Hill is now a broken, control-challenged project. He’s a long shot to contribute, but New Busch smiles upon fly ball-centric pitchers: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Busch has decreased homer production by 20 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009, while deflating run scoring by seven percent.

Chicago Cubs signed INF Chad Tracy to a minor league contract.

The last time Tracy played regularly was 2006, when he turned in a 102 wRC+ with Arizona. Since then, the 29 year-old lefty batter has been injury-prone and ineffective. Tracy was placed on the DL with an oblique strain and right knee tendinitis in 2007. He had microfracture surgery in September of ’07, which sidelined him until May of 2008. This past year, Tracy again hit the DL with an oblique strain.

From 2007-2009, the erstwhile D-Back authored an 86 wRC+. For 2010, CHONE offers an 84 wRC+ projection, while the fans envision a 92 wRC+. Even if he cracks the 25-man roster this spring, Tracy doesn’t figure to see much playing time with the Cubs.

New York Yankees traded INF Mitch Hilligoss to the Texas Rangers for OF Greg Golson.

Golson’s really fast and….did I mention he’s fast? The 24 year-old was once a warmly regarded prospect in the Phillies’ system, but a fatal lack of strike zone control has wrecked his career prospects. Golson did swipe 20 bags in 24 attempts for Triple-A Oklahoma. Unfortunately the former first-rounder “batted” .258/.299/.344, walking 5.8 percent and whiffing 23 percent. During his minor league tenure, Golson has a .263/.308/.395 triple-slash, drawing ball four 5.5 percent and striking out 26.5 percent. He’ll aspire to become the next Freddy Guzman.

The Oakland Athletics have reportedly inked free agent right-hander Ben Sheets to a one-year, $10 million contact. That pact might also include incentives.

The 31 year-old missed the entire 2009 season following February elbow surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. Sheets easily topped the 200-inning mark in each season from 2002-2004, but has provided transient excellence since then. Courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, here’s Sheets’ extensive injury history:

2001: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 46 days)
2005: Vestibular Neuritis (DL, missed 37 days)
2005: upper back strain (DL, missed 36 days)
2006: right shoulder strain (DL, missed 23 days)
2006: right shoulder tendinitis (DL, missed 82 days)
2007: right middle finger injury (DL, missed 45 days)

Sheets recently auditioned for potential suitors, topping out at 91 MPH with his fastball and showcasing his signature curveball.

When healthy, the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft shows a rare combination of power and precision. Sheets has punched out 7.97 batters per nine innings during his big league career, handing out just 1.97 BB/9. The 6-1 Louisiana native has a 63.2 first-pitch strike percentage since 2002, well north of the 58-59 percent MLB average over that time period. His career xFIP is 3.55.

Prior to the elbow injury, Sheets sat 92-93 MPH with his four-seam fastball. The pitch has a +0.61 run value per 100 tosses since 2002. His high-70’s curveball, thrown over 30 percent of the time, checks in at +0.58 runs/100 pitches. Sheets has rarely utilized a changeup, and for good reason (-1.59 runs/100).

Sheets should enjoy his new digs. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, The Oakland Coliseum sapped run-scoring by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009, while suppressing home runs by 10 percent. Considering Sheets’ fly ball tendencies (career 41.8 GB%), he’ll like the extra breathing room.

Is there a bigger wild card out there than Ben Sheets? He’s superb when able to take the mound, but it’s unclear if he left any of his stuff on the operating table. CHONE projects Sheets to log 114 innings next year, with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 3.86 FIP. If he were to reach those totals, Sheets would provide about 2.1 WAR in value.

If you can snag Sheets late in your draft, by all means do. He could provide upper-echelon production, but there are obviously many unknowns regarding his health. Still, gambling on a guy like Sheets beats settling for the Jeremy Guthries and Jon Garlands of the world.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

Back in 2006, Francisco Liriano pitched like a cyborg sent from the year 2029 to annihilate all American League Central competition.

The Twins southpaw, just 22 at the time, snapped off mid-90’s gas, wicked high-80’s sliders and tumbling mid-80’s changeups. Liriano began the season in relief, but transitioned to the rotation in mid May. No matter his role, Liriano’s command to batters was clear: “your bats…give them to me now.”

In 121 innings pitched, the former Giants farmhand posted an xFIP (2.35) that could only be seen with Terminator Vision. Liriano struck out 10.71 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 2.38 BB/9. He also burned worms with a 55.3 GB%. Ample whiffs, few walks and groundball tendencies-that’s the holy trinity of pitcher skills.

While laying waste to opposing batters, Liriano tossed an incredible number of sliders. He unleashed that upper-80’s breaker nearly 38 percent, the highest rate in the majors among starters with 120+ IP. The 6-2 southpaw threw his 94-95 MPH fastball only 43 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate among pitchers. Liriano also threw his changeup often (19 percent).

His heater was decent (+0.13 runs per 100 pitches), but the slider (+3.47) and changeup (+2.82) were otherworldly. Liriano had the lowest contact percentage in the game (65.4), and he pounded the strike zone. Francisco placed 54.8% of his pitches over the plate, compared to the 52.6% average that season. Simply put, he was untouchable. Twins fans had visions of Liriano and Johan Santana leading the club to perennial postseason glory.

But Minnesota’s terminator malfunctioned. Liriano was scratched from an early August start with elbow soreness. He took the mound against the Tigers on August 7th, but was pulled after just four innings. The Twins placed him on the DL for forearm soreness soon after, hoping that rest and rehab would cure what ailed the phenom. Liriano returned to face the A’s on September 13th, but he lasted only two frames. Tommy John surgery soon followed.

Liriano missed the entire 2007 season, then logged a hefty workload upon returning in 2008. Liriano was called up from Triple-A Rochester in mid-April to fill in for Kevin Slowey, but he was sent back to the International League after a few poor starts and wouldn’t be recalled until August. In 118 innings with Rochester, Liriano posted a 3.03 FIP with rates of 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9.

While he didn’t terrify hitters like in the halcyon days of ’06, post-TJ Liriano was still plenty nasty. He had a 4.31 xFIP in 76 frames, whiffing 7.93 hitters per nine innings and walking 3.79 per nine. Post-surgery, Liriano didn’t get hitters to chop the ball into the ground as much (41.6 GB%).

Liriano increased his fastball usage to 54 percent, tossing sliders 26 percent and changeups 20 percent. His heater lacked the same zip, sitting at slightly under 91 MPH, and that upper-80’s slider turned in to a low-80’s offering (83-84 MPH). The slider remained deadly (+2.18 runs/100 pitches), and his changeup also rated decently (+0.03). But Liriano’s fastball lagged, at -0.54 per 100 tosses.

Not surprisingly for a post-TJ pitcher, Liriano had some issues with his control. His zone percentage dropped to 47.1, compared to the 51.1 percent MLB average, and his first-strike percentage was just 48.9 (58-59% MLB average). Even so, he was difficult to square up: Liriano’s contact rate was 75.5% (80-81% MLB average), and his swinging strike rate was 10.5 percent (7.8% average for starters).

Last offseason, I predicted a big 2009 season for Liriano:

The pitcher who burst onto the scene in 2006 might never return, but the current version of Francisco Liriano is extremely talented in his own right. If his control takes a step forward, as is the case with many TJ pitchers in their second year back, look out. Sill just 25 and possessing a full arsenal of pitches, Liriano should re-establish himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL in 2009.

Instead, he was battered for a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 IP. Liriano missed a couple starts with swelling in his left forearm in late July and early August, then was placed on the DL with left elbow fatigue in mid-August. Upon returning in September, Liriano made just one start while otherwise pitching out of the ‘pen.

The continued health problems are disconcerting. However, Liriano wasn’t the total punching bag that his ERA would suggest.

Liriano punched out 8.03 batters per nine innings, with 4.28 BB/9 and a 40.2 GB%. His BABIP was inflated at .324, and his home run per fly ball rate (12.5%) was a little higher than usual. Liriano’s rate of stranding runners on base (66.3 percent) was also below his career 70.7% average. While he was no ace, he posted a less gruesome 4.55 xFIP.

Control remained elusive: he put just 45 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 130+ IP. Liriano got ahead of hitters 0-and-1 or induced first-pitch contact only 55.4 percent of the time. Despite those negative indicators, his contact rate (74 percent) was fourth-lowest among starters, and his swinging strike rate climbed to 11.6 percent.

Keep in mind that Liriano’s pitch run values are deflated somewhat due to the discord between his results and his peripherals. But even so, the difference between his fastball and secondary stuff was marked. The slider gained a few ticks on the radar gun (86 MPH) and rated at +1.38 per 100 pitches. Liriano’s changeup was a quality pitch as well (+0.91).

His fastball crept up to 91-92 MPH, but it was slaughtered for a -1.99 runs/100 value. Only Detroit’s Armando Galarraga fared worse on a per-pitch basis. As Dave Allen illustrated, Lirano’s heater gets very few swings outside of the zone, few whiffs and few groundballs.

Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Liriano has reportedly had no injury problems and has sat 92-94 MPH with his gas.

Entering 2010, Liriano is a fantasy conundrum. He’s still just 26, possesses a sinister slider and pulls the string on a plus changeup. Even if he were to make no substantial progress, Liriano would likely be a league-average starter next season with better luck.

But in order to become more than merely average, Liriano is going to have to make strides with his heater. He does an exceptional job of throwing his slider and change for strikes, but the fastball often misses the mark. That leads to hitter’s counts, as evidenced by Liriano’s lagging first-pitch strike percentage.

Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are locked into the rotation. Liriano will likely have to contend with Brian Duensing for that last opening. CHONE prefers Liriano (4.36 FIP, compared to 4.77 for Duensing).

Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.

I’m going to be perfectly honest: I typically stay away from Johan Santana. I’ve only drafted Johan once in my life, and then I flipped him for Brandon Webb and Michael Young, and dominated my league. Another disclaimer – I’m a Mariners fan, so I’m in love with Cliff Lee at this point, as I’m sure many Phillies fans were last season.

This year, Johan and Lee have some extra intrigue surrounding each of them, and are being drafted relatively close to each other. Johan is coming off September elbow surgery, and Lee is in a new (old) league again with a new squad. Johan is currently the seventh pitcher off the board (41), with Lee being the ninth pitcher being drafted (51). But should Lee be going before Santana?

Johan has posted two nice seasons since going to New York. In 2008 he pitched a career high 234.1 innings, won 16 games and had an ERA of 2.53. I would call that a more than superb fantasy season, but a 1.15 WHIP and 7.91 K/9 dropped him down a bit. Last season, before his injury woes, Santana pitched 166.2 innings, won 13 games and had an ERA of 3.13. Once again, however, a 7.88 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP made that season less valuable. I find it strange that no one is talking about Johan’s drop in strikeout rate since he entered the NL. From 2002-2007, he never struck out less than a batter an inning, and now he is doing so consistently. CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, with fan and Marcel projects hovering around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?

Lee has been fabulous since his return to the bigs late in 2007. In ’08 he posted a 2.54 ERA (3.57 xFIP) and struck out 170 batters in 223 innings. Splitting time with the Indians and Phillies in ’09, Lee struck out 181 batters in 231.2 innings, earning himself a 3.22 ERA (3.69 xFIP). Looking at his 2009 as a whole, his strikeout rate was an improvement from 2008, but in reality it may not have been. His strikeout rate in the AL was worse than 2008, coming in at 6.34 per nine. The defense behind him and the spacious Safeco field will only help his ERA and WHIP next year, and Fans may have it right by projecting a 1.06 WHIP and 3.16 ERA.

Doing a quick comparison, which starter would you rather have? The pitcher that’s coming off surgery and has Jason Bay as their left fielder, or the pitcher with an outstanding defense and ballpark around him? I’d rather have Lee, but that’s not to say he’s being drafted too low. I think switching him and Santana in the draft order would be best, but in the end Santana just needs to move down below Lee on draft day.

With Aroldis Chapman inking with the Cincinnati Reds, both of baseball’s biggest pitching prospects have found homes for the 2010 season. Since both Stephen Strasburg and Chapman’s location is known, it makes it much easier to compare the two and evaluate when they should be drafted.

Chapman, a power throwing lefty from Cuba, is still raw. He will need to work on commanding all of his pitches, and no one knows just how long that will take. The Reds hope to fast-track him through the minors, but just what does that mean? Once again, not sure. My best guess is that we’ll see him in August and September, with only a 5% chance he’s up before the All-Star break (barring massive injuries to a huge amount of Reds’ pitchers). I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman, but many scouts are. Of course, who doesn’t love a lefty who throws hard?

Strasburg, the consensus number one pick of last year’s amateur draft, will likely be up sooner than Chapman. His powerful fastball (with good movement) is complimented by a sharp slider (some scouts say curve, but I see a slider) and changeup. Some scouts have said there may be some major arm injuries in his future, while others say his delivery is just fine. I’ve seen quite a bit of video, and I don’t see anything horribly wrong. He seems to open up a touch too early, but nothing that screams injury to me. I’d suggest he spends the first couple months in the minors, but it looks like the Nationals may let him run wild before that. I doubt he starts the season in the bigs, but he’s probably in the bigs a couple of weeks after he dominates in Double-A.

Both Strasburg and Chapman are going late in drafts (and not at all in a good chunk of drafts) according to MockDraftCentral. Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him. Guys like Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny are going after the two young guns, and I’d rather have all of them. Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in, but Chapman is going far too high at this point. If you are in a keeper league, it’s not the worst pick in the world, but I think you should be able to get him later.

It’s easy to forget that Jeremy Bonderman is only 27-years-old. He was placed in Detroit’s rotation and made 28 starts as a 20-year-old during their horrific 43-win season in 2003. Bonderman was allowed to develop at the big league level and quickly became a young workhorse. He would make 151 starts for the team from 2003-2007 averaging 30 starts a season. His banner year would come in 2006 (3.29 FIP in 214 innings) and this led to a four-year extension that he signed in December 2006 worth $38 million that covered his last two arbitration years and bought out his first two eligible free agent seasons.

Bonderman has been a massive disappointment since he signed that extension and injuries have decimated his past two seasons. A scary blood clot in his throwing shoulder altered his mechanics and cut short his 2008 season after 12 sub-par starts. Bonderman slowly regained his velocity this season as he struggled to fully recover from the prior surgery on the blood clot. He made 15 appearances in the minors and eight at the big league level where was relegated to relief duty down the stretch. This is the last year of his contract and he has much to play for. Bonderman is slated to be the teams fourth starter in 2010.

Health is definitely the biggest concern with Bonderman but no set backs have been report thus far this off season. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted in the USA Today about Bonderman and his health earlier this off season:

“He’s healthy. His velocity was fine at the end of the year. He just took a long time to bounce back from his surgery, but that’s healed now.”

Throwing strike one will be a big key for Bonderman in 2010. His first-strike percentage took a very noticeable dip in 2008 from his career norms. The blood clot seemed to hinder his pitch velocity and his velocity will be something to keep a very close eye on in spring training.

Prior to injury Bonderman was coming into his own and portraying good command along with healthy strike out rates. He’s always been a little homer prone save for his career year in 2006 but he was still producing good FIPs. He’s always had some higher BABIPs and left on base rates but these have become career norms for Bonderman. He has a career .317 BABIP and 67.7% LOB rate which are both below average. Bonderman just isn’t as good with runners on base and it’s not proper to adjust these stats.

With Bonderman appearing free to go in 2010 he has the potential to bring back big returns to fantasy owners. Detroit’s defense was very good in 2009 according to UZR and will be an asset for him and his ERA in 2010. He would be a nifty dollar starter or late round pick. He has big upside and had developed a very solid set of controllable peripherals prior to the blood clot.

Bill James’ 2010 projection (4.22 FIP in 185 innings) sounds very realistic to me. I think the 3.06 walk rate that James is projecting is too high and I’d expect that number to sneak into the 2.80’s based off his prior form. This would help lower his FIP and make for a rosier projection.

Remember that Bonderman is only 27-years-old and he still has many years ahead of himself. He’s a snoring sleeper pick and make sure that snore wakes you up. Bonderman could be paying big dividends for your fantasy team next summer.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re certainly not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, I’m going to cover the pitchers by their location on your team. The first group consists of pitchers that could or should be selected to be fantasy aces in 2010. Let’s take a look.

This is where I drop some caveats. Everyone has their preferences, so order this tier as you will. The first tier is meant to be the no-doubt-about-it group. All of these guys won’t give you the strikeouts of Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but they’ll come within a strikeout or two per nine innings. They won’t all have the miniscule WHIPs of Dan Haren or Roy Halladay, but none of them should break 1.2 in that category. They won’t all be the horse that CC Sabathia is, but they’ve all (so far) shown the ability to put close to 200 innings together. There are no guarantees when it comes to elbows and shoulders, but these guys look like bonafide studs.

The next group ain’t too shabby themselves. The first three only have question marks because they’re young and haven’t been doing this for ages. Despite my worries about Jon Lester’s walk rate in the minors, he hasn’t shown any problems since he made his cancer recovery. Felix Hernandez broke out last year, and just needs to show it again. Justin Verlander seems to have fixed his delivery, but will what broke before break again? The next two guys have question marks are about age and health. Chris Carpenter is a walking question mark, and his ongoing health issues make him overvalued after strong years and undervalued after injured years. In other words, I owned him often last year and may not own him once next year. Instead, I may own Johan Santana often this year, who should be next year’s Carpenter, despite his worrisome declining velocity and strikeout rates. Cliff Lee never had great strikeout rates to begin with and is going to the tougher league, but he may get some support for a higher ranking.

Originally, there was a tier between Lee and Adam Wainwright, but that tier was born more of intuition than anything in the numbers. Wainwright made just as big of a leap forward as King Felix in some ways, why should he be in another tier? Perhaps this imaginary tier has a combination of questions. Wainwright broke out – and has durability questions. Josh Johnson can probably repeat his performance, given his history, but he has definite durability questions. He’s put together just 364 innings total from 2007-2009. Josh Beckett is a favorite of mine, but for some reason he keeps putting up ERAs that are much higher than his FIPs, and maybe that’s just how he rolls. Ubaldo Jimenez induces mad ground balls and strikes out plenty, but his stats are still borderline. Aw, heck, put that tier back in.

The “just off” tier gives you a preview of some nice SP2 values that you could pair with a late SP1 for your best strategic approach. Consider that the number one pitcher on this list is projected by Bill James to put up an 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 261 strikeouts, while the tenth guy may “only” contribute 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 224 strikeouts. That, my friends, is why you wait to draft your starting pitchers.

Last offseason, we took an in-depth look at Johnny Cueto’s rookie season with the Cincinnati Reds. The Dominican-born right-hander, equipped with low-90’s gas and a sharp slider, ripped through the minor leagues. With Cincy, Cueto tossed 174 innings, with a promising 4.37 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) in 2008. I concluded:

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.

One year later, it appears as though Cueto didn’t make a whole lot of improvements to his game. In 2008, he punched out 8.17 batters per nine innings, with 3.52 BB/9. This past year, the soon-to-be 24 year-old compiled a 4.57 xFIP in 171 frames, with 6.93 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. His ERA dipped from 4.81 to 4.41, but that was largely due to a decrease in BABIP (.309 to .296) and home run per fly ball rate (13.9 percent to 11.2 percent).

Cueto was among the toughest starters to make contact with during his rookie year, but hitters put the bat on the ball 82.7% of the time in 2009 (80-81% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the strike zone increased from 85.4% to 88.1% (87-88% MLB average).

While Cueto’s walk rate did fall, he actually located fewer pitches within the zone (51.2% in ’08, 47.6% in ’09; the MLB average is 49-51%) and garnered fewer first-pitch strikes (59.4% in ’08, 56.5% in ’09; 58-59% MLB average).

His pitch selection essentially remained the same. Cueto tossed a fastball about 62 percent of the time, while supplementing the heater with mid-80’s sliders (30 percent) and occasional changeups (8 percent). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, the fastball and slider didn’t generate as many whiffs this past season:

2008

Fastball: 6.8 Whiff%
Slider: 15.8 Whiff%
Changeup: 11.9 Whiff%

2009

Fastball: 5.8 Whiff%
Slider: 9.7 Whiff%
Changeup: 14.1 Whiff%

Overall, Cueto’s swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 10.1 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent (7.8 percent average for starting pitchers).

A look at Cueto’s Pitch F/X data shows that the slider didn’t show near as much horizontal break in 2009. In ’08, the pitch broke away from righty batters 2.6 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In ’09, it broke away from same-handed hitters just 0.8 inches (the average for RHP is between 2-2.5 inches).

One could make the argument that late-season injuries dragged down some of these totals. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Cueto dealt with a hip flexor injury in early August, then hit the DL with shoulder inflammation shortly thereafter. He also missed a late-season start with the flu. Here are Johnny’s month-by-month numbers:

He clearly struggled to locate his pitches in July and August.

Entering 2010, Cueto’s value is hard to gauge. Is he healthy? While his innings totals haven’t been abusive, Cueto has logged a significant workload in the majors at a young age. And, can he regain the bite on that once-plus slider, while honing his changeup? To this point, his fastball has been a slightly below-average offering (-0.3 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider also in the red at -0.09 runs/100. The neglected changeup checks in at an ugly -1.12.

Cueto is plenty talented and has time on his side. But in order to take the next step, he must show durability and develop those secondary offerings.