Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Seven.

John Ely – After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year. He is available on the waiver wire in most leagues and will make an excellent pickup for his two home starts against the Astros and the Tigers.

Hiroki Kuroda – After starting with two very solid seasons in the majors, Kuroda has been even better this year. His GB% is up to 58.6 and his K/9 has increased to 7.04. Kuroda’s O-Swing% is 34.9 and his Contact% is 78.8 percent. And he has won four of his five decisions. It is hard to imagine what else owners want to see from Kuroda before they make him a must-start, but he rides the pine in 37 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him into your lineup especially as he goes against two pitchers with ERAs above 5.00 for the year.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Generally I am bullish on Matsuzaka for the remainder of the 2010 season but I think he should be on the bench this week. The positives are that he has a 2.67 K/BB ratio and a 32.7 O-Swing%, both career-bests. The big negative is that he has a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and is susceptible to the gopher ball. This week he has road starts in Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park, two of the best HR parks in baseball. Do not be discouraged if he has a rough time this week, just be sure he does it on your bench.

Carl Pavano – Benjamin Franklin said that it takes many good deeds to build a reputation and only one bad one to lose it. Pavano lost any good reputation he may have built in his four injury-plagued years with the Yankees. Even after a 14-win season last year, fantasy owners are lukewarm at best towards Pavano. Last Player Picked has his work so far this season as worth $11 in a 12-team mixed league, good for a solid #3 SP. Yet Pavano is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues. It is not an easy week for him, but Pavano deserves to start in all formats.

Mike Pelfrey – After starting the season with four wins and a save in his first five appearances, Pelfrey has struggled in his last three games. In 17 IP, he has a 6.88 ERA and a 1.588 WHIP. Pelfrey has a tough week, with a game in Atlanta and then an Interleague matchup with the Yankees. Pelfrey is 3-5 lifetime against the Braves with a 5.58 ERA and he has a 5.40 ERA against the Yankees in two career appearances. Leave him inactive for this week if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Seven are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Carpenter, J. Johnson, Halladay, F. Hernandez, Greinke, J. Santana, Gallardo, Cain, Weaver, Price, Hughes, Danks, C. Wilson, J. Sanchez, Niemann, Slowey, Vazquez, Beckett, Marcum, Kazmir, Cueto, Carmona, Lowe, Sheets, W. Rodriguez, Wells, Chacin, Latos, G. Gonzalez, Porcello, E. Jackson, Holland, Millwood, Silva, Volstad, Richard, Bailey, Cook, Bonderman, Lohse, Eveland, Duke, Kendrick, Davies, Bergesen, Norris, Bush, Medlen, F. Garcia, Huff, Lannan, Rowland-Smith, Morton, Stammen, C. Valdez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Five pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.975 WHIP (2 starts)
Correia – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (1)
Floyd – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.82 ERA, 1.737 WHIP (2)
Garcia – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 14.46 ERA, 2.571 WHIP (2)

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

The Boston Red Sox hold a 17-16 record and a -11 run differential entering play Tuesday. To get back into playoff contention, the Sox face a steep climb up baseball’s version of Mount Kilimanjaro, the AL East. With the Yankees and Rays playing superbly, Boston currently has a seven percent chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com and a 15 percent shot according to Baseball Prospectus.

Much attention has been paid to the disappointing start of Josh Beckett. After inking a four-year, $68 million contract extension in early April, Beckett has been bombed for a 7.46 ERA over his first seven starts. What gives?

Let’s start with the obvious: he hasn’t been that bad. While Beckett’s ERA makes him look like he should be mopping up for Billy Ray “Rojo” Johnson, he has been subject to terrible luck on balls put in play and has stranded far fewer base runners than usual. Beckett’s BABIP is .365 (.303 career), and his left on base rate is 56.9 percent (71.5 percent career).

While the 30-year-old (this Saturday) has undoubtedly gotten some bad breaks, he also hasn’t been his usual dominant self, either. In 41 innings, Beckett has 7.46 K/9 (lowest since 2006) and 3.51 BB/9 (highest since ’06). His 4.35 xFIP is a run higher than his 2009 mark, and is also his highest since the righty’s first year in Beantown back in 2006.

Beckett’s 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his marks in recent years. His 82 percent contact rate is just slightly higher than his 80-81 percent figures from 2006-2009. The big change lies in Beckett’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone: his Zone%, in the 52-54 percent range from ’06-09, was consistently above the 48-51 percent MLB average. This year, however, Beckett has located 47.8 percent of his pitches within the zone (the MLB average thus far is 48 percent).

The main culprits for Beckett’s so-so control and slightly elevated contact rate appear to be his two-seam fastball and his curveball. In 2009, he threw his two-seamer for a strike 64.5 percent (57.2 MLB average), with a 10 percent whiff rate (5% MLB average). This year, his two-seamer has been thrown for a strike 58.1 percent, with a 7.5 percent whiff rate. Beckett’s curve got strikes 59.6 percent in ’09 (58% MLB average), with batters whiffing 11.5 percent (11.6% MLB average). In 2010, the hammer’s strike percentage is 54.3, and its whiff percentage is 9.4. Beckett is throwing fewer curves this season (18.8%, compared to 25.5% in 2009), mixing in more cutters and changeups.

It’s true, Beckett hasn’t been great to begin 2010. But I don’t see any reason for outright panic. After years of fantastic pitching, he has gone though a stretch during which he has been merely average. Beckett’s not suddenly getting battered. Rather, he’s having some difficulty placing his two-seam fastball and signature curve and has subsequently issued more free passes than usual. This looks like a good time to pry Beckett from a frustrated owner: ZiPS projects 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 3.37 FIP for the rest of the season, and I see little reason to think he’s more than a mechanical adjustment away from resuming his role as Red Sox co-ace.

During his first full year as a big league starter, Max Scherzer showcased a sizzling fastball. The University of Missouri righty, who came to terms with the Diamondbacks after a protracted holdout that included a stint in indy ball, averaged 94.1 MPH with his heater. In 170.1 frames, Scherzer whiffed 9.19 batters per nine innings, walked 3.33 and posted a 3.88 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starting pitchers.

Shipped to Detroit over the winter as part of a three-time trade that put Curtis Granderson in Yankee pinstripes, Scherzer was expected to team with Justin Verlander to give the Tigers a pair of high-octane aces at the front of the rotation. Recapping Scherzer’s ’09 season, I wrote the following back in January:

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ‘06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

While Scherzer hasn’t missed any time in 2010, he also hasn’t displayed the electric stuff that made him such a prized commodity in fantasy circles: his average fastball velocity is 91.7 MPH this year. In 2009, batters whiffed at Scherzer’s gas 13.1 percent of the time. That blew the six percent big league average out of the water. In 2010, though? his whiff rate on the fastball is a nothing-special 5.9 percent. His fastball was thrown for a strike 65.6 percent last year, but that figure has fallen to 61.7 percent with the Tigers (64.4 percent MLB average).

That fastball is clearly key to Scherzer’s success: per Trip Somers’ tool, Scherzer threw a fastball 74.3 percent of the time in 2009 and has gone to it 68.5 percent in 2010. Given the big drop in whiff rate on the pitch, it’s not surprising to see that Scherzer’s contact rate is up to a MLB average 81 percent, compared to last year’s 76.9 percent mark, and his swinging strike rate is also right around the big league average at 8.2 percent. In 2009, it was 10.6 percent.

Back in April, Mike Fast estimated that a starter’s run average increased by 0.25 runs for every MPH of fastball velocity lost. So far, Scherzer has a 6.81 ERA in 37 innings pitched. He hasn’t been that bad: a .346 BABIP and very low strand rate (58.3 percent) haven’t done him any favors. But with just 6.08 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9, Scherzer’s xFIP sits at a mediocre 4.85. A two-plus MPH loss in velocity would suggest a rise in runs allowed per nine frames in the neighborhood of six-tenths of a run. For a guy as reliant on the heat as Scherzer, perhaps it’s a bit more.

This isn’t to set off panic alarms. I’m not going to channel Jim Cramer and scream “Sell! Sell! Sell!” (Plus, I don’t have a fancy sound-effect board, so it wouldn’t have the same resonance.) But, given Scherzer’s checkered health history, the drop off in velocity is troubling and should be monitored. Scherzer hasn’t shown the same ferocious fastball with his new club.

Updates on three rotation spots from around the league…

Derek Holland | Rangers

Matt Harrison is on the disabled list with a biceps tendon issue, so Texas is turning to Holland to fill his rotation spot. The 23-year-old posted an unsightly 6.12 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in 138.1 IP for the big league team last year, though his 4.38 xFIP is a bit better. He was extremely homer prone, surrendering one long ball for every 5.1 IP, and it wasn’t just a function of Texas’ ballpark either (1.25 HR/9 on the road). Holland is still one of the brightest young lefties in the game, absolutely destroying the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League before his promotion (2.16 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.3 K/BB). His next two starts are at home, so the homers might continue to be a problem, but he’ll face the A’s (.308 wOBA) and Angels (.317 wOBA), hardly offensive powerhouses.

Holland is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, but he should be a nice boost for your team over his next two starts, if not more.

Kris Medlen | Braves

Jair Jurrjens, a fantasy darling last year because of a 2.60 ERA and 14 wins, is on the disabled list with a bum hammy, leaving his starts to the 24-year-old Medlen. He held the Phillies to one run over 4.1 IP in his first start over the weekend, and overall he’s got a snazzy 6.33 K/BB and 3.38 xFIP, albeit in just 22 IP. Medlen’s somewhat limited track record suggests that he can miss bats (9.8% career SwStr%), keep the ball on the ground (41.4 GB%) and thus limit homers (0.60 HR/9), but he’s still a bit of a roll of the dice. His next start comes against the Diamondbacks, and it sounds like Jurrjens will be back shortly after that. Despite sexy ERA and WHIP totals, I consider him non-rosterable in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.

Ross Ohlendorf | Pirates

Back spasms kept the former Yankee on the disabled list for the last month, but he’s set to return to the Buc’s rotation later today. Ohlendorf’s sparkling 3.92 ERA last season hid some poor peripherals – 5.55 K/9, 1.27 HR/9, .265 BABIP – so it’s tough to expect him to maintain a similar ERA going forward. Following today’s start against the Reds, he’ll take on the Cubs in Wrigley, so they aren’t the best of matchups. In a deep mixed or NL-only league, Ohlendorf has a smidgen of value as a matchup 6th or 7th SP. He’s still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues, but I wouldn’t rush out to get him. Not until he shows he’s over the back issues and is somewhat serviceable, anyway.

Here is the latest update to Week Six 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – John Lackey
FLA – Ricky Nolasco
TEX – Colby Lewis
STL – Brad Penny
TOR – Brandon Morrow
ANA – Joel Pineiro
HOU – Brett Myers
DET – Rick Porcello
NYM – Jonathon Niese
KCR – Brian Bannister
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

After getting roughed up by the Rays, Lackey has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts, picking up two wins in the process. His GB/FB ratio is essentially where it’s been the past few years, but Lackey is striking out fewer batters and issuing more walks. His 1.50 K/BB ratio is the worst of his career. Lackey is surviving thanks to a lower LD% and a lower HR/FB rate. He has posted a lower than average HR/FB rate in six of his eight seasons in the majors and so far this year it checks in at 7.1 percent.

Six of the seven homers allowed by Nolasco this year have come in his home park, where he has pitched 16 innings. The rest of the Marlins’ staff has allowed 7 HR in 135 IP at Sun Life Stadium. The average velocity on Nolasco’s fastball is down 1.1 mph and his K/9 has fallen from 9.49 to 7.26. A 1.82 BB/9 has kept his FIP and xFIP right around his ERA of 4.08, which checks in slightly better than the NL average of a 4.20 ERA.

A wicked slider which he throws over 30 percent of the time has helped make Lewis’ second stint in the majors go significantly better than his first. That has led to a 31.4 O-Swing% and a 10.24 K/9 rate. Somewhere on the West Coast, Carson Cistulli cracks a smile over this.

Last year Penny had a 1.13 GB/FB rate but it is back up to 1.49 this year. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan gets all of the credit for the turnaround yet Penny had a 1.63 GB/FB rate last year with the Giants. Penny is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (1.77 BB/9) and perhaps Duncan deserves credit for that. Still, Penny is pitching better than his peripherals, with an xFIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA.

In his last four outings, Morrow is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and has 34 Ks in 24.1 IP. The overall numbers still look bad because of the brutal first two starts but you should definitely check the waiver wire to see if he is still available in your league.

Pineiro still has tremendous GB and BB rates, so why is his ERA sitting at 5.30 or nearly two runs a game higher than last season? Check out that 15.6 HR/FB rate, over twice as high as last year’s mark. Pineiro has also been unlucky with a .351 BABIP. The bottom line is that his xFIP of 3.89 is just slightly higher than last year’s 3.68.

This week Myers has two road starts. He has a 2.57 ERA on the road this year and an 0-2 record.

The K/9 for Porcello has risen from 4.69 to 5.70 this season. Unfortunately his BABIP has risen from .281 to .396 and combine that with a 58.4 LOB% and you get a 7.50 ERA. Porcello’s FIP and xFIP are right in line with last year, when he posed a 3.96 ERA and 14 Wins.

Omar Minaya eschewed adding a free agent pitcher in the offseason, saying he liked his internal candidates as much as what was available after Lackey signed. Niese is trying his best to make Minaya look good and has a 3.60 ERA after six starts despite a .382 BABIP.

This season Bannister has made three starts during the day and three at night. He is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA in the sunshine and 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA under the lights. In his career, Bannister is 18-8 with a 4.06 ERA in day games and 13-32 with a 5.26 ERA at night.

Monasterios was originally signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela. He was shipped to Philadelphia in the Bobby Abreu deal and was underwhelming in three-plus years in the Phillies’ farm system. This year he was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft and then sold to the Dodgers. He has been effective in relief for Los Angeles and gets bumped into the rotation as Los Angeles looks everywhere for help for its rotation. However, his xFIP is two full runs higher than his ERA.

Today’s premium prospects receive more scrutiny than ever. Short of parting the Red Sea and ending world hunger (I’m looking at you, Strasburg), hot-shot young players may receive an, “is that it?” reaction from fans when they merely hold their own in the early stages of their respective big league careers.

Take Tampa’s David Price. The 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft abused minor league hitters and received national acclaim by flinging upper-90’s heat and sinister upper-80’s sliders out of the ‘pen during the 2008 playoffs. Entering 2009, Price adorned magazine covers and battled Matt Wieters for the titles of Best Prospect Ever and Time Man of the Year.

While Price didn’t dominate from the get-go as a starter, he more than held his own for a 23-year-old in the A.L. East. In 128.1 IP, he posted rates of 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP. In 2010, Price has a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 frames. While he hasn’t suddenly morphed into Sandy Koufax circa 1963, Price has shown improvement in a few key areas.

In ’09, Price didn’t get batters to chase or swing through a pitch all that often. His outside swing percentage was 22.9 (25-27% MLB average), and his swinging strike percentage was a mild 7.5 (8-8.5% MLB average). This year, Price is getting outside swings 30 percent of the time, while getting a swinging strike 8.4 percent.

During his first year in the rotation, the 6-6 southpaw relied upon two main pitches: a 93 MPH four-seam fastball and an 83-84 MPH slider. The second time around, Price’s repertoire appears more expansive. Rather than tossing a four-seamer 71 percent of the time and mixing in sliders about 20 percent, Price has thrown a two-seamer about 24 percent and has gone to a 76-77 MPH curveball (thrown about 18 percent) as his breaking pitch of choice. His percentage of four-seam fastballs is in the low forties, and his slider percentage is less than half of what it was last season.

With the two-seamer (thrown about 90 MPH, with about 2 inches more tailing action in on lefties than the average two-seamer), Price’s ground ball rate has ticked up a bit, from 41.5% to 43.4%. The curve, while not getting many whiffs (6.1%, compared to the 10.5% MLB average), is getting plenty of strikes: 70.2%, way above the 58% big league average.

Whether the introduction of another breaking pitch has played a part or not, Price’s slider has been harder to hit this year. In ’09, the slide-piece was whiffed at just 5.9% (13% MLB average). In 2010, that whiff rate has climbed to a more palatable 11.1%. Perhaps the presence of two breaking balls has hitters less certain about what Price is going to throw. Along the same lines, his four-seamer, whiffed at 8.2 percent in 2009, has an elite 10 percent whiff rate in 2010 (6 percent MLB average).

The 24 year-old won’t keep that shiny ERA, as his BABIP will rise from .231, he’ll strand fewer than 81.6 percent of base runners and he’ll surrender more than a 4.3 HR/FB%. But Price has whiffed 7.02 per nine innings, walked 2.98 and has a solid 4.02 xFIP.

This is just a theory, but David Price with four pitches would certainly appear to be harder to hit than David Price with just two offerings. Now, batters have to anticipate four-seam, two-seam, curve or slider, as opposed to mainly just four-seam or slider. Price might not yet be a top-of-the-line starter, but he’s getting there.

Scoop these two players up if they’re available–after you give Mom a hug, that is…

Travis Snider, Blue Jays (Owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues)

A 6-0, 235 pound lefty thumper taken with the 14th pick in the 2006 draft, Snider shredded minor league pitching (.304/.382/.533, 11.1 BB%, .229 ISO) while reaching the majors for parts of his age 20 and 21 seasons. While some seem disappointed with his work thus far (a .330 wOBA in 466 career PA), there’s no shame in being a league-average hitter in the majors at ages in which most batters are taking cuts in High-A or Double-A. Take note of a couple of plate discipline trends for Snider over the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons:

2008: 33.3 Outside Swing%, 68.5 Z-Swing%, 70 Contact%
2009: 27.1 Outside Swing%, 71.8 Z-Swing%, 71.3 Contact%
2010: 21.4 Outside Swing%, 72.2 Z-Swing%, 76.6 Contact%

(Outside Swing= percentage of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone; the MLB average has been 25-27% in recent years. Z-Swing= percentage of swings on pitches within the strike zone; the MLB average has been 63-65% recently. The average Contact rate is 80-81%).

Snider is gradually laying off pitcher’s pitches, swinging at more in-zone offerings and making more contact. So far this season, he has batted .227/.318/.433, with an 11.8 percent walk rate, a 23.7 percent punch out rate, a .206 ISO and a .325 wOBA. He has elite power in that pre-slim-down Matt Stairs frame, and he’s controlling the zone well. That’s not to say that everything is perfect: Snider has a 22.7 infield/fly ball percentage that’s basically twice the MLB average. Those weak pop ups are easy outs, and help explain his .257 BABIP. But overall, a 22-year-old slugger who’s taking a more enlightened plate approach is well worth a look.

Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs (12%)

Picked up from the Pirates last summer (along with lefty reliever John Grabow) for RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and INF Josh Harrison, Gorzelanny lost the faith of Pittsburgh’s new regime. The Bucs’ second-round pick in the ’03 draft compiled an impressive minor league resume (8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 career) and rated #96 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to 2006. But, after so-so performances in 2006 (4.88 xFIP) and 2007 (4.82 xFIP), Gorzelanny imploded in 2008 on his way to a 5.84 xFIP.

Described by BA as possessing 90-92 MPH gas capable of hitting 95, a slider that could be “unhittable at times” and a rapidly improving changeup in the ’06 Prospect Handbook, Gorzo devolved into a guy with a high-80’s fastball, no slider to speak of and a marginal changeup. Add in injury problems (elbow tendinitis in ’06, shoulder tightness in ’07, and middle finger and shoulder ailments in ’08), and the lefty looked busted.

Things began to change in 2009, however, as Gorzelanny managed a K per inning, 3.26 BB/9 and a 3.73 xFIP in 47 innings (seven starts, 15 ‘pen appearances), mostly for the Cubs. And, given a chance to start full-time in 2010, the 27-year-old is off to a fantastic start.

In 35 innings, Gorzelanny has 9.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 3.34 xFIP. That velocity he showed as a Pirates farmhand doesn’t appear to be coming back (89.9 MPH with the fastball), But Gorzo’s using his once-vaunted slider over a quarter of the time and he’s getting a bunch of swings on pitches off the plate (34.6 O-Swing%). His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 11.6% (8.3% MLB average).

Gorzelanny isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is quite useful (7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.93 FIP). And look at that ownership rate–Carlos Silva (29% owned) is on more than twice as many fantasy squads as Gorzo. That should soon change.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Six.

Right now only 23 pitchers are scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Of those, 12 are currently starting in less than 10 percent of leagues while five are active in 70 percent or more. So, there are slim pickings in the middle class, or where I usually try to focus on for this column.

Aaron Cook – He has allowed five runs in four of his last six starts, including his last outing at Petco. Cook gets two home starts this week, where he has actually fared much better this year. But he opens up against Roy Halladay. If that was not bad enough, Cook is 1-5 lifetime against the Phillies. His second start is against the surging Scott Olsen. It all adds up to a pitcher to reserve for this week.

Wade LeBlanc – You will not find many pitchers with a .353 BABIP and a 1.16 ERA after four games, but that is exactly what LeBlanc has managed to do so far this season. He achieves that thanks to the one-two combination of zero home runs allowed and a 90.3 LOB%. After opening with three of his first four games in the friendly confines of Petco, LeBlanc hits the road to face the red-hot Barry Zito in his first start. He is back home against the Dodgers in his second game, but LeBlanc is 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his brief career against Los Angeles. Put him on the bench if you have other options this week.

John Maine – Since I selected him as a “Hunch” 10 days ago, Maine has gone 1-0 with 15 Ks and 5 BB in his last 12 IP after a brutal start to his season. He still has not recovered the lost velocity on his fastball, but he proved he could pitch effectively without it. In his last game, Maine threw fastballs on 92 of his 102 pitches, averaged 89.19 with his heater, allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP and lost a win when the bullpen blew a two-run lead. Maine has favorable matchups this week so make sure he is in your starting lineup.

Scott Olsen – Everyone knows about the no-hitter he carried into the eighth inning in his last start, but that was the third straight solid outing in a row for Olsen, who is pitching like he is ticked off that he started the season in the minors. He is 2-0 with 5 BB and 20 Ks in his last 20.1 IP. Olsen faces an uphill task with two road starts this week but ride the hot streak and make sure he is in your lineup. His best pitch is his slider and Olsen faces the Mets and Rockies this week, two teams that are below-average against that pitch.

Jake Westbrook – Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Westbrook is on there for a reason as he has not delivered good results this year, with an 0-2 record and a 5.74 ERA. But there are some encouraging signs for the veteran. His 6.03 K/9 is his highest since 2001 and he still gets a ton of ground balls. Westbrook is being hurt now by the gopher ball, as he carries an 18.2 HR/FB ratio. He squares off against the Royals and Orioles this week, two teams in the middle of the pack in HR hit, and who have combined for a 19-39 record. If you are looking for a pitcher to stream this week for his two starts, Westbrook has a good shot to pick up a win and hopefully not hut too bad in the other categories.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Six are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Garza, Hanson, Lee, Zito, Billingsley, Lilly, Vazquez, Arroyos, Robertson, Willis, Cahill, R. Lopez, D. Davis, Kendrick, Atilano, Ohlendorf, D. Hernandez, G. Smtih.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Four pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 6.94 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2 starts)
Davis – Advised to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (2)
Duke – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 10.80 ERA, 2.400 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 5.06 ERA, 1.313 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.769 WHIP (2)

Mike Leake went from Arizona State to the Arizona Fall League to Goodyear, Arizona to Cincinnati in the blink of an eye. The Reds selected the 6-1, 190 pound right-hander with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, and after impressive fall league and spring training performances, Leake cracked the major league rotation to open 2010.

Leading up to the draft, Baseball America said the following about Leake:

What he lacks in pure physicality, he makes up for in athleticism and results. Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings.

In five starts so far, Leake has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9, with a strong 54.5 percent ground ball rate. His ERA (2.94) outpaces his expected FIP (4.37), as Leake has benefitted from a low .263 batting average on balls in play, a 6.9 home run per fly ball rate (the big league average is around 10-12 percent) and a 77.7 percent strand rate that’s probably going to come down some. That’s not to take a negative outlook on his start: for a guy with very limited professional experience to reach the majors and perform at a league-average clip from the get-go is quite impressive.

Leake has placed 48.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (right at the MLB average), while getting a first pitch strike 58.9 percent (57.7% MLB average). After issuing 12 free passes against the Cubs and Pirates, Leake has shown much better control over his last three starts. Hitters are making contact 82.8 percent of the time (80.7% MLB average), and tallying swinging strikes 6.4 percent (8.3% MLB average).

That BA scouting report noted Leake’s laundry list of pitches, and the Sun Devils star hasn’t been bashful about mixing all of them into his game plan. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, Leake is showcasing an 88-89 MPH sinker, an 80-81 MPH slider, an 83 MPH changeup, a 77 MPH curveball, an 89 MPH cutter and an 88-89 MPH four-seam fastball (it could probably be lumped in with the sinker, but the pitch has slightly less tailing action in on righty batters). Here are the strike and whiff percentages for the pitches so far, compared to the major league average:

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

Overall, Leake’s beginning in the majors has to be considered a success. He’s throwing strikes after a bumpy beginning and getting plenty of grounders. The 22 year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, and he might not be a huge strikeout pitcher in the long run. But with an expansive repertoire, average K rates, good control and a tendency to keep the ball down, Leake could become a poor man’s Tim Hudson.