Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

Scott Feldman has undergone some drastic transformations during the course of his pro career. Texas’ 30th round pick in the 2003 draft was a nondescript reliever on the mend from Tommy John surgery when Orel Hershiser suggested a sidearm delivery in the spring of 2005. After bouncing between Triple-A Oklahoma and Arlington over the ’05 to ’07 seasons, getting lots of grounders out of the ‘pen but struggling to locate at the big league level, Feldman switched to a three-quarters delivery and moved to the starting rotation in 2008.

The results weren’t pretty (a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings), but Feldman showed considerable improvement in 2009 while going to a cutter to keep lefty batters from taking him to the woodshed. His ERA dropped to 4.08. The Rangers signed the mop-up man-turned-starter through his arbitration years this past winter, with an option for his first free agent season in 2013.

So far, it looks as though Feldman has turned back into a pumpkin. Tossing 89.2 innings, the 27-year-old righty holds a gruesome 5.32 ERA. What has changed between Feldman’s 2009 breakout and 2010 beat down? Very little, actually.

Last year, Feldman had 5.36 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9 in 189.2 innings. This season, he’s whiffing 5.82 batters per nine and issuing 2.91 BB/9. He induced ground balls 46.8% in ’09, and 44.2% in 2010. There’s nothing dramatically different here — a few more whiffs and a few less worm killers.

Same story with Feldman’s plate discipline stats. His swinging strike rate was 6.5% in 2009, and is 6.4% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average). Feldman got a first pitch strike 57.5% last season, and is getting ahead of the hitter 58.9% this year (58% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 84.6% in ’09, is 85.7% in 2010 (81% MLB average). In terms of getting swings on pitches out of the zone, Feldman’s doing a slightly better job this season — his O-Swing was 25% in 2009 (25.1% MLB average that year) and is 29.8% in 2010 (28.3% MLB average).

Feldman’s pitch selection is a bit different (more mid-70’s curves in place of 90-91 MPH fastballs), but the results between his ’09 and ’10 seasons are strikingly similar. Why, then, has his ERA soared more than a Vlad Guerrero home run?

Last season, Feldman benefited from a .276 BABIP. In 2010, balls put in play against him are falling for hits at an absurd clip — his BABIP is .352, trailing only Zach Duke and Randy Wells among qualified big league starters. Also, Feldman’s strand rate has slipped. After leaving 72.8% of base runners high and dry in ’09, his LOB rate is down to 64% this year (70-72% MLB average). He’s not pitching worse with men on base:

Feldman with runners on base

2009: 4.48 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 4.66 xFIP, .252 BABIP
2010: 5.89 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 4.50 xFIP, .338 BABIP

Truth be told, Feldman is neither the rotation stalwart that his shiny 17-win total from 2009 suggests, nor the bust that his 2010 ERA implies. Both seasons, he has been a passable starter — Feldman’s xFIP was 4.49 last season, and is 4.58 in 2010. Despite the wild fluctuations in his surface stats, Feldman’s the same pitcher he was last year.

Tampa Bay Rays righty James Shields is seemingly turning in a mediocre performance in 2010. The 28-year-old owns a 6-7 record and has a middling 4.55 ERA, a combination that has led 11 percent on Yahoo fantasy players to pull the plug on the changeup artist. Is Shields struggling? Not really. But how bullish you are on his numbers improving depends upon your ERA estimator of choice.

In 99 innings pitched, Tampa’s 16th round pick in the 2000 draft has 8.36 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 42.3% ground ball rate. That K rate is well above his career average of 7.29 K/9, while he’s basically matching his career totals in terms of walks and worm burners (1.94 BB/9 and 43.5 GB%, respectively).

Not much has changed in terms of his pitch selection or plate discipline stats. Shields is still leaping ahead in the count, getting first pitch strikes 61% of the time (60.4% career average, 58% MLB average). His contact rates aren’t drastically different, though he’s actually getting slightly fewer whiffs than normal — his swinging strike rate is 9.1% (10% career average, 8-8.5% MLB average) and his contact rate is 81% (78.8% career average, 81% MLB average). The cause of Shields’ increased K rate isn’t whiffs, but called strikes — his called strike percentage is 17.8% this season, compared to 16.7-17% over the past few years (17% MLB average). Called Strike% has a lower correlation with K rate than swinging strike rate, so it seems likely that Shields punch out rate comes back toward his career average (7.29 per nine). Zips projects 7.23 K/9 for the rest of 2010.

No huge, negative changes to this point. So, why the run-of-the-mill ERA for Shields? For one, he’s got a .339 BABIP this season, compared to a .310 career average. Opponents have hit a good deal of line drives against Shields this season — 21.5% (the MLB average is 18.9%, according to StatCorner). Two interpretations of that number come to mind.

On one hand, line drives falls for hits on balls in play more than 73 percent of the time, so that certainly contributes to the higher-than-usual BABIP. On the other hand, line drive rate is a rather volatile stat, and Shields’ career 19 LD% is right around the big league average. That suggests batters don’t typically scorch the ball against him. If his line drive rate comes back toward that career rate, his BABIP should fall. Shields has also allowed home runs on fly balls hit 14.4% time, well above his career 11.5% figure and the 11% MLB average.

Shields’ line drive and homer rate help explain the dichotomy between his tERA and xFIP. His tERA (tRA put on the same scale as ERA), is 4.43. tERA assigns an average run value to batted ball outcomes like line drives, ground balls, outfield fly balls and infield fly balls, as well as run values for K’s, walks, HBP’s and home runs. Liners and home runs obviously have a high run value, so a pitcher giving up lots of them like Shields is going to get dinged. Meanwhile, his xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is actually a career-best 3.50. xFIP sees strong peripherals and poor luck on fly balls, and expects considerable improvement.

Personally, I’d take the middle ground between those two figures. It’s unlikely that Shields allows so many liners or homers per fly ball hit against him moving forward. But it’s also unlikely that he continues to punch out so many batters. ZiPS thinks he’ll split the middle, too, with a rest-of-season FIP of 3.91. Shields is well worth owning in all formats — if he’s on the wire, snag him and expect a high-three’s ERA for the rest of 2010.

With Rick Porcello demoted to Triple-A, the Tigers are turning to another young arm to fill his spot this week, 2009 second round pick Andy Oliver. You may or may not know about Oliver’s plight with the NCAA, which essentially disqualified him from playing at Oklahoma State after he used an agent to negotiate a contract with the Twins when they drafted him out of high school in 2006. All of that is behind him now, and just 14 starts into his professional career, he’s a big leaguer.

Aggressive promotions and the Tigers are nothing new. Aside from Porcello, remember that Justin Verlander make a pair of July starts in 2005, barely more than a year after they made him the second overall pick in the 2004 draft. He then joined the rotation full-time in 2006. Clearly, the team will not hesitate pushing a young player if they believe he’s the best option.

Baseball America rated Oliver as the team’s fourth best prospect coming into the season, noting that he pitches “at 92-94 mph and occasionally reaching the upper 90s,” but his array of secondary pitches (two-seamer, slider/cutter, curveball) all need work. Power lefties are a rare breed, hence the high draft selection and $1.495M signing bonus.

Assigned to Double-A to begin 2010, Oliver has has performed admirably in his young pro career, holding opponents to a .253 AVG against (lefties .242), striking out 8.1 men per nine and limiting the walks to just 2.9 per. MinorLeagueSplits.com has him at 39.3% ground balls, 16.3% line drives, 38.5% fly balls, and what strikes me as an absurdly high percentage of infield flies at 19.1%. Nothing too out of the ordinary there, a rock solid performance. If you want to nitpick, Oliver is perhaps giving up a few more homers (0.81 HR/9) than you’d like to see from a pitcher with his stuff and pedigree, but that’s not an awful rate.

The Tigers are marching him out there against the lefty heavy Braves on Friday, though they are a good fastball hitting team (0.59 wFB/C, fourth best in baseball). Chances are this is just a one or two start cameo, similar to Verlander half a decade ago, but I like the matchup this week. Granted, Atlanta looks as if they’ll never lose again, but they’ve never seen Oliver before and his stuff is good enough that smoke and mirrors won’t be needed. It’s a risky play, but the good news is that you have three more days to see what kind of shape your pitching is in before deciding whether to go for it or not. If you can risk some ERA and WHIP in favor of strikeouts and a possible win, then I see be bold and go for it.

It’s a relatively slow week for starting pitchers with fantasy value, though the Giants will skip Joe Martinez the next time through the rotation, pushing their big three up a day (all on normal rest). Here’s some other notes…

Carlos Carrasco & Aaron Laffey | Indians | both 0% owned

The Indians finally had enough of David Huff’s 6.40 ERA (5.70 xFIP), sending the southpaw down to Triple-A. They have yet to announce who will take his spot in the rotation, though they will announce the move before they start their series with the Phillies tomorrow. Carrasco and Laffey are the two obvious candidates.

Carrasco got his brains beat in for four starts after coming over in the Cliff Lee trade last year, though this season he’s been okay in Triple-A (4.29 ERA, ~4.50 FIP). Laffey was demoted earlier this year after a failed bullpen stint, though he’s walked 15 and struck out just nine in four Triple-A starts. Whoever Cleveland calls upon with start in Cincinnati Friday then against the Blue Jays early next week, and my best advice is to avoid both at all costs.

Vicente Padilla | Dodgers | 2%

The Dodgers welcomed back their Opening Day starter after he battled a nerve issue in his forearm for close to two months, and he promptly got smacked around by the Red Sox this weekend. (R) ZiPS is a little rough on Padilla, forecasting a 5.11 ERA (4.70 FIP) the rest of the way with an acceptable strikeout rate 6.57 K/9). I don’t think he’ll match the 3.20 ERA he posted with LA last year, but I can see him maintaining a low-to-mid-4.00’s mark with more than seven strikeouts per nine. His next two starts come against the Yankees (sit) and at the Giants (start), and he has value in NL-only leagues as long as you pick your spots.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 42%

Last year’s wunderkind hasn’t been able to repeat 2009’s success in 2010, earning him a demotion to Triple-A. The Tigers have yet to announce his replacement, calling up Triple-A closer Jay Sborz for bullpen depth for the time being. Detroit has plenty of options for that now vacant starting spot, including Enrique Gonzalez, Brad Thomas, and Eddie Bonine, none of which salivates your fantasy tongue. Whoever they call on with start at the molten hot Braves then at the Twins the next two times out, and they have no one to call up to make those starts viable fantasy options.

Ownership rates listed based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 12. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Wade Davis – In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. While he has two home starts this week, you might want to bench him until you see some better results.

Gio Gonzalez – Roughed up in his last two starts, both on the road, Gonzalez returns home for two games this week. In Oakland he has a 2.90 ERA in six games. Make sure he is active for games against the Reds and Pirates.

Jamie Moyer – A terrible outing against the Red Sox two starts ago has masked a string of solid pitching by Moyer since early May. Activate him for his two home starts this week.

Jon Niese – Since returning from the disabled list, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA. He has a tough matchup against Justin Verlander in his first outing but has two home starts, where the Mets are 24-10. Keep him active this week.

Jason Vargas – Not everything has been disappointing this season in Seattle. Vargas has a 2.88 ERA and has hurled a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12 outings. Get him in your lineup for this week’s action against the Cubs and Brewers.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Danks, Dempster, Burnett, J. Garcia, E. Santana, Latos, Leake, Baker, Cecil, A. Sanchez, L. Hernandez, Hunter, Chacin, Talbot, Guthrie, Narveson, Ohlendorf, R. Lopez, Chen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Cueto – Advised to Start. W, 6.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.667 WHIP (2 starts)
E. Jackson – Advised to sit. 4.26 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.895 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 15 Ks, 0.753 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to start. W, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.750 WHIP (1)
Slowey – Advised to start. W, 3.86 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)

In 2009, Randy Wells was a surprisingly effective cog in the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. The converted catcher and returned 2007 Rule V pick of the Blue Jays posted a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings pitched, placing 10th among qualified National League starters. This season, however, Wells has fallen to a 4.92 ERA in 78.2 frames. Has the 27-year-old righty regressed significantly, or are better days ahead?

While Wells’ ’09 performance was sturdy, it is important to note that his gaudy ERA overstated the extent of his dominance. With 5.66 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Wells had a more modest 4.24 xFIP. The ERA/xFIP dichotomy was the result of a fairly high 76% rate of stranding base runners (the MLB average is usually around 70-72%, though pitcher skill does play some role) and a home run/fly ball rate of eight percent (11% MLB average).

Extreme strand and HR/FB rates have a way of returning toward those big league averages, and we’ve seen that from Wells in 2010 — he’s leaving 67.8% of runners on base, and 9.2% of his fly balls are reaching the bleachers. While a reversal of fortune on those fronts should have been expected, Wells has seemingly gone to the other end of the luck spectrum this season. He’s got a .355 batting average on balls in play, compared to .294 in 2009. Among qualified starting pitchers, only Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke has a higher BABIP.

The first thing that sticks out regarding Wells’ performance on balls put in play is his line drive rate. It’s 25.1% this year, highest among starters and leaps and bounds above his 18.8% mark from last season. Line drives aren’t the most stable metric from season to season, but we know that bad things happen on batted balls classified as liners — line drives in the NL this season have a .975 slugging percentage and a .715 BABIP. Wells’ liners have a .965 SLG% and a .754 BABIP. That’s certainly a contributing factor to his inflated BABIP. But what makes this finding confusing is that just about every other performance measure suggests that Wells isn’t getting hit hard at all.

So far, he has 7.09 K/9. He’s whiffing 18 percent of batters faced this year, up from 15 percent in 2009. Wells’ swinging strike rate, 8.1% last season, has climbed to 10.9% (8-9% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 77.1% in 2010, compared to 81.8% last year (80-81% MLB average). Relative to the big league average, Randy’s outside swing percentage is up — he’s outpacing the MLB norm by 17 percent this year (33.1 O-Swing, 28.2 MLB average) after surpassing it by 11 percent last year (27.8 O-Swing, 25.1 MLB average).

Wells is getting swinging strikes when throwing a fastball 6.8 percent in 2010, compared to 4.3% last season (the MLB average is around six. His slider is getting slightly more whiffs (13.3% in ’10 to 12.8% in ’09, 13.6% MLB average) and his changeup has a 19.4% whiff rate, up considerably from last year’s 13.1% clip (12.6% MLB average). None of these numbers suggest he has gotten easier to hit.

In addition to getting more whiffs, Wells has actually lowered his walk rate slightly to 2.29 BB/9. He continues to get ahead in the count often, with a 61.6 first pitch strike percentage (61.4% last year, 58% MLB average).

Overall, Wells’ xFIP is a tidy 3.68 — over a half-run lower than his 2009 figure. That line drive rate bears watching, but there are many positives to be found in Wells’ “disappointing” follow-up to his celebrated rookie campaign. If he’s available in your league (and with a 51% Yahoo ownership rate, there’s a decent chance that he is), do your team a favor and scoop up a quality starter on the cheap.

J.D. Martin, Nationals (Owned in one percent of Yahoo Leagues)

While Washington’s non-Strasburg starters have been lackluster this season, with a collective 4.68 xFIP that ranks 15th in the NL, Martin’s solid performance so far might not buy him much job security. Scott Olsen (shoulder inflammation) could be back next month, as could Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery) is another possibility to pitch in August or September. Returns for Jason Marquis (elbow) and Ross Detwiler (hip) are less certain.

In the meantime, however, NL-only players could do worse. Martin, 27, was a supplemental first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians in the 2001 draft. The 6-4, 200 pound righty once rated prominently on prospect lists, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 prior to 2002. Sadly, injury derailed his ascent to the majors — Martin underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005. His standing in Cleveland’s system slipped, as he was shifted mostly to relief work in 2008, and he then signed as a minor league free agent with the Nationals prior to 2009.

Martin’s a soft-tosser — he features an 87-88 MPH fastball, a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup — but he has a quality minor league track record and exceptional control. Last season at Triple-A Syracuse, Martin had 6.44 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9 and a 2.77 FIP in 88 innings pitched. Prior to his late-May call-up in 2010, he whiffed 5.5 per nine, walked 1.8 per nine, surrendered 0.7 HR/9 and held a 3.75 FIP in 41 IP.

Logging 102.1 big league frames over the past two years, Martin has 4.84 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. There’s no guarantee that he’ll succeed — Martin won’t miss many bats, and he’s a fly ball pitcher (37.4 GB%) who has experienced problems with the long ball (1.67 HR/9) — but he could be a decent mid-to-back-end starter. ZiPS projects 5.63 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

Ike Davis, Mets (16%)

The 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft experienced a famous power outage after signing (.256/.326/.326, 0 HR in 239 New York-Penn League PA), causing some Mets fans to rashly wonder if the team made a mistake. Since then, Davis has raked. He batted a combined .298/.381/.524 in 488 PA between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League last season, walking 11.7 percent of the time, punching out 26.1 percent and posting a .226 ISO while going yard 20 times.

After a productive Arizona Fall League stint and a week-plus at the Triple-A level, Davis was bumped up to the majors early in 2010. Davis, 23, has made a seamless transition. The 6-5 lefty hitter has a .261/.345/.447 triple-slash in 226 PA, with a .346 wOBA. He’s showing decent pop, with a .186 ISO, and he’s walking in 11.1 percent of his trips to the plate. Plus, those dugout flips are so freakin’ cool.

Davis has been a fairly aggressive batter, swinging at 29.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.2% MLB average this season), but he holds that double-digit walk rate as a result of seeing very few offerings over the plate. Pitchers are giving Isaac Benjamin an in-zone pitch just 38.3 percent of the time, the lowest rate among qualified MLB hitters (47.3% MLB average). On a related note, opponents are reluctant to give him fastballs — Davis is getting a fastball under 50% of the time, eighth-lowest among big league batsmen. So far, the opposition’s strategy against Ike seems to be, “feed him off-speed stuff off the plate and hope for a chase.” It’ll be interesting to see if that approach shifts in the months to come.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

Anibal Sanchez has endured a star-crossed career. The former Red Sox farmhand, picked up by the Marlins as part of the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell/Hanley Ramirez mega-deal in November of 2005, punched out over ten batters per nine innings in the minors. In its 2006 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America remarked that while Florida desired Jon Lester in the Beckett deal, Sanchez was “a premium prospect in his own right.” And on September 6, 2006, Sanchez sat on top of the baseball world, no-hitting the Arizona Diamondbacks in the thirteenth start of his rookie season.

Over the next three years, however, Sanchez would spend more time rehabbing than trying to retire big league batters. While a Sox prospect, he overcame 2003 surgery to transpose a nerve in his right elbow. But injuries again crept into the picture — Sanchez underwent labrum surgery in May of 2007. After a near-15 month absence from a major league mound, he returned on trade deadline day of 2008. Unfortunately, shoulder woes derailed his 2009 season as well — he spent nearly four months on the DL. Over the 2007-2009 period, Sanchez logged just 167.2 MLB innings.

So far this season, it appears as though Sanchez is finally making good on those predictions of acedom. In 81 frames, the 26-year-old right-hander has a 3.22 ERA. That puts him in the same company as studs like Mat Latos and Tommy Hanson. Fantasy owners have been slow to get on board, though, as Sanchez is owned in just 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. Should more players be scrambling to the waiver wire to snag Anibal, or is that reticence well-justified?

During his first 13 starts of the season, Sanchez has 6.78 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent groundball rate. If those numbers sound rather run-of-the-mill, that’s because they are — in 2010, the average MLB hurler has whiffed 7.02 batters per nine innings, with 3.45 BB/9 and a groundball rate around 44 percent. During his big league career, Sanchez has 6.64 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 and a 43.4 GB%. He’s issuing fewer walks than in years past, which is certainly a positive. But there’s nothing here that portends to a great leap forward.

Similarly, his plate discipline stats show some, though not a ton, of improvement. Sanchez’s rate of first pitch strikes is up, sitting at 59.4 percent (55.6% career average, 58% MLB average). Also, he’s getting swings on pitches out of the zone 29.6% (28.1% MLB average), the first time his O-Swing has surpassed the big league average. But his 8.9 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his 8.7% career mark (8-9% MLB average), as is his 80.8% contact rate (80.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

So how is Sanchez’s ERA in the low three’s? Homers. Or rather, a lack thereof. When opponents loft a fly ball against Sanchez, it’s leaving the yard just 3.4 percent of the time. That’s the fifth-lowest rate among qualified big league starters. For comparison, the major league average is about 11 percent, and Sanchez’s career rate entering 2010 was 8.7 percent. Dolphin…er, Sun Life Stadium had a neutral HR/FB park factor over the past few years. There’s very little chance that Sanchez continues to see so many balls die at the warning track.

His xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.34. That’s better than his recent work — 4.43 in 2008 and 4.64 last season — but not greatly so. Sanchez has essentially been a slightly above-average starter who has gotten some big breaks in the dinger department. I think Sanchez is certainly worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues, and he could be an option in deeper mixed formats. But keep in mind that, between his voluminous injury history and ERA drop based on a factor largely out of the pitcher’s control, Sanchez is far from a sure thing.