Out since last June, it looks like Reds’ righty Edinson Volquez will make his triumphant return to the big leagues this Saturday against the Rockies. He’s been on the shelf because of reconstructive elbow surgery, but he also mixed a 50-game PED suspension in there as well.

Part of that great win-win trade with the Rangers and Josh Hamilton, Volquez broke out in a big way in 2008, putting together a 4.3 WAR season thanks to 196 innings of 3.60 FIP ball. Last year didn’t go as well before the elbow gave out (5.01 FIP in 49.2 IP), but Volquez is healthy now, which is a great thing for fantasy owners.

Always a high strikeout (8.51 K/9 career, 9.46 in ’08), high walk (4.62 BB/9 career, 4.27 in ’08) power arm (averaged 93.6-93.8 mph on the fastball from 2006-2009), Volquez rolled through the minors during his rehab stint, posting a 28/8 K/BB ratio in 31 IP (six starts) and showing his old velocity. The question isn’t if he’s ready to return to the show physically, but how much should we expect out of him.

The biggest issue are the walks. Command and control is typically the last thing to come back after elbow surgery, and Edinson didn’t exactly pound the strike zone before getting hurt either. I wouldn’t read anything into his 2.3 BB/9 during the rehab stint, because not only is it a tiny sample, but young players in the bush leagues will chase stuff off the plate and get themselves out. Good luck doing that against a non-Astros big league lineup. With the elbow issues last season, Volquez walked a ridiculous 5.8 batters per nine, and I would anticipate something between his ’08 and ’09 marks through the end of the season. Something right around five makes sense, but he could easily best that.

Volquez has always been tough to hit, and I wouldn’t expect that to change, nor would I expect his strikeout rate to plummet. That will help keep his WHIP in check despite the all the free passes. Conservatively assuming 8.5 K/9 with 5.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 should translate to a low- to mid-4.00’s ERA, which has lots of value when you consider that Volquez has the potential to be so much better than that. The Reds have a solid back-end of the bullpen, so leads and wins should be safe. Coming back from Tommy John surgery can be tricky, but guys with this kind of sheer stuff have a lot more room for error.

Volquez is owned in just 27% of Yahoo! leagues, and even if his return comes a little later than this Saturday, run out and grab him. Adding a starter of this caliber and this late in the season usually takes a trade, but now you (might) have a chance to pull it off without sacrificing anything more than waiver priority. That Saturday start comes against the Rox, and after that Cincinnati has dates with the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, Braves, and Pirates.

Brandon Morrow is already a decent fantasy starter, due to the high number of strikeouts he gets owners every outing. However, he tends to walk too many guys, which can lead to serious problems. I don’t care what NERD says, Brandon Morrow is not a fun guy to watch pitch if you have an interest in the outcome of his starts.

But, during June, Brandon Morrow was super awesome. Morrow pitched 33 innings, striking out 34 while walking only 10. Now, a guy walking 10 batters a month isn’t exactly outstanding, but for Morrow it actually is. His June walk rate was 2.73 batters every nine innings, compared to over 5 batters every nine innings in April and May.

I was wondering what Morrow was doing differently in June, if anything, so I decided to talk to Dave Allen, our resident pitch f/x guru. He told me, and I quote:

I can’t really find anything in the pitchf/x data to indicate how he dropped his ball rate so much. His Zone%, OSwing% and the other likely candidates are all very similar. I also don’t see much difference between where his pitches are ending up in the zone in June compared to May/April. I think it might be just a small sample size thing…Also with just 33 innings it is hard to find tons of patterns in the data.

I find this to be strange, but I’m going to trust Dave on this one. Just looking on the surface of the situation, it makes sense. Morrow’s Strike% was normal, so he wasn’t pounding the zone any more than usual.

Another interesting aspect of Morrow’s June was his batted ball types. Morrow, a flyball pitcher, got over 52% ground balls during the month of June. His rate on the year is 42.5%, and he’s reverted back to his old form in his two July starts.

In his first start of July, Morrow struck out seven while walking one batter, in six innings of work. While he struggled against the Red Sox this past weekend, Morrow has at least shown the potential to limit the free passes. Keep an eye on him, because if this trend continues, he’ll be worth a pickup.

After enjoying a career year pitching out of the ‘pen for the Rangers in 2009, C.J. Wilson was shifted to the starting rotation this past spring. Prior to April 8th, 2010, the 29-year-old hadn’t taken a big league mound as a starter since August 18th of 2005. Strictly a reliever from 2006-2009, Wilson whiffed 8.94 batters per nine innings, walked 4.26 per nine and had a 51.1% ground ball rate. In March, Matt Klaassen theorized about Wilson’s value taking the ball every fifth day instead of pitching in short bursts. The whole article is well worth a read, but here are a couple tidbits:

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

However, Klaassen also noted Wilson’s increased ground ball rate in 2009, as well his improved performance against right-handed pitching:

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.

So far, it looks like Wilson has blown by that modest projection — he holds a 3.35 ERA in 113 innings pitched. But, if you look a little closer, you’ll find some cracks in his seemingly stellar first half. In truth, Wilson has pitched much closer to the level Klaassen forecasted than the lefty’s ERA would indicate.

Navigating lineups multiple times, Wilson’s got 6.53 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 49.5% ground ball rate. As those ratios suggest, Wilson isn’t whiffing a lot of batters or displaying particularly sharp control. Texas’ fifth-rounder in the 2001 draft has a 6.6% swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average this season), and his contact rate is 83.7% (81% MLB average). Wilson’s getting into hitter’s counts more often that you’d like, throwing first pitch strikes 53.6% (58% MLB average), and he has been about average in terms of putting his offerings over the plate (47.3 Zone%). On pitches out of the zone, Wilson’s garnering swings just 23.4% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

As a starter, Wilson’s using his fastball (down about three ticks in velocity) less than half of the time. He’s going to a high-80’s cutter about 19 percent of the time, a low-80’s slider 12 percent, a low-80’s changeup 13 percent and a mid-70’s curveball on roughly eight percent of his pitches. That cornucopia of pitches has worked wonders against same-handed hitters, but Wilson’s underlying performance against righty hitters leaves much to be desired:

Clearly, Wilson has been fortunate in not yet surrendering a homer to a lefty and in having a microscopic BABIP against them. But he has been pretty effective against LHBs overall. It’s a different story when an opposite-handed batter steps to the plate — Wilson’s often losing the zone against RHBs.

Not that a half-season’s worth of starts should serve as definitive judgment on Wilson’s abilities as a starter, but his peripherals are rather close to what Klaassen predicted. Wilson’s xFIP is nearly 1.4 runs higher than his actual ERA, at 4.71. He has benefitted from a .250 BABIP, seventh-lowest among qualified MLB starters, and he has served up homers on fly balls hit against him just 6.1% of the time. That’s one of the twenty lowest rates among big league starters, and is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers.

If Wilson continues to strike out and walk opponents at a similar clip in the second half, his ERA will almost assuredly rise by a significant margin. There’s also the workload issue to consider — Wilson’s previous career high in innings pitched is 136, and that was at High-A and Double-A back in 2002. Perhaps he’ll handle the increase just fine, but he does have a history of arm ailments (Tommy John in 2003, a biceps strain in 2006, elbow soreness and subsequent surgery to remove a bone spur in 2008, according to the Baseball Injury tool). The point is, we just don’t know.

Given his mild K and walk totals and his entering unchartered territory in terms of innings pitched, Wilson’s a good sell-high candidate. If you can convince an owner that Wilson’s an upper-echelon starter instead of a decent rotation arm with a good deal of risk, now’s the time to make a deal.

Since we are around the halfway point of the season, I have decided to look into which pitchers have ERA’s that differ the most considering their FIPs, xFIPS and BABIP. I used all 3 values helps to find out truly lucky or unlucky pitchers have been this season and the reasons why (i.e. high home run rates or low BABIP).

To start with I took all the pitchers that have pitched over 20 innings so far this season. From this group, I averaged 3 numbers. ERA-FIPs (E-F) is already provided here at Fangraphs. Also, I easily calculated the ERA-xFIPS for the second value.

For the third value, I did a calculation of expect ERA using the batter’s BABIP from this quick calculation of Tom Tango.

The BAPIP ERA formula ends up working out to be:

(((0.300-BABIP)*(Total Batters Faced)) * 0.75) + Earned Runs)/(IP/9)

Explanation of constants (these 2 values can be adjusted if a someone wants to calculate the values themselves):

0.300 = league average BABIP
0.75 = Run value for an extra hit

With all three values calculated, I averaged them into a value determining how much a pitcher’s ERA differentiates from their expected ERA.

I have collected at the pitchers and posted them in this following Google Spreadsheet.

Note: For ease, I will use pERA as the projected ERA considering the pitcher’s FIPs, xFIPs and BABIP

Here are some highlights:

Chad Qualls – (ERA = 8.60, pERA = 4.03) – Chad is by far the unluckiest pitcher so far this season. He has not be exactly lights out, but no pitcher can be good with a BAPIP of 0.468.

Jose Valverde – (ERA = 0.92, pERA = 3.13) – No real surprise that a pitcher can’t mainly a sub 1 ERA. He got to the low ERA with a 0.169 BABIP and giving up only 1 home run so far this season. Jose is actually is striking out less and walking more batters than Chad Qualls.

Tim Hudson – (ERA = 2.30, pERA = 4.04) – Tim’s ERA has been helped in that he has 0.232 BABIP. He has needed a low BABIP since he has not been striking many people at all with a K/9 of 4.5 to go along with a BB/9 of 3.2

Francisco Liriano – (ERA = 3.86, pERA = 2.69) – Most people would complain too much about a starter with a 3.86 ERA, Mr Liriano looks like he should be doing better. He has a great K/9 of 9.8 and BB/9 of 2.5 while allowing only 2 home runs so far this season.

There won’t be too many rotation spots changing this week for obvious reasons, but here are a few notes anyway…

Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | 56% owned

Last year’s breakout lefty had been out since late April with a flexor band strain in his middle finger before returning last week. The Padres knocked him around (seven runs in 4.1 IP), but I wouldn’t let that sway my outlook much. JDLR is still a super-high strikeout pitcher (10.54 K/9 in 2010, six last start), but his shaky control means he’ll never dominate the ERA and WHIP categories. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.80 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 8.10 K/9 the rest of the way, but a little LOB% luck (62.2% this year, 68.5% over the last three years) could have his ERA in the low-4.00’s. His first start after the break will come in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Daniel Hudson | White Sox | 7% owned

David Golebiewski already took an in-depth look at Hudson, so I’m going to cop out and refer you to that. Hudson is taking the place of Jake Peavy, who is done for the season after tearing a lat muscle right off the bone. Ouch. He’ll first start of the second half comes in Seattle, but not until next Monday.

Chris Tillman | Orioles | 2% owned

Back in the bigs after a rather disastrous four start stint with the O’s earlier this season (15 R, 8 BB, 7 K in 15 IP), Tillman twirled a gem on Saturday, holding the Rangers to two hits and one unearned run in 7.1 IP. Tillman’s strikeout rate has never been the same since getting his first taste of the bigs last year, going from 9.94 K/9 before his ML debut to 5.89 since (majors and minors). Phil Hughes went through something similar when he debuted, and it had more to do with rookie jitters (nibbling instead of attacking hitters) than decline in stuff. I’d expect Tillman to improve his strikeout rate in the future, but that probably won’t come this year. He has value in a deep keeper league, but not much more than that.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.

On the surface, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is busting out in 2010. The 24-year-old, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for a modest $3,500, dominated minor leagues hitters to the tune of 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a low-three’s FIP. Cueto rated as a top prospect on the basis of his sharp fastball/slider combo, and his major league ERA has fallen three seasons in a row — 4.81 in 2008, 4.41 in 2009 and a sparkling 3.42 this year. The sterling track record on the farm, the admiration he earned from scouts, the linear improvement in his MLB ERA — all of these signs point to a star emerging in Cincy.

I’m not sold, though. Take a look at some of Cueto key peripheral stats over the 2008-2010 seasons. I highlighted the most notable changes in, appropriately enough, red:

Cueto’s walk rate has fallen over the years, but his strikeout rate has declined considerably as well. He handed out a free pass to batters in 8.8% of their plate appearances in 2008, 8.2% in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010 (8.8% MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference). He’s doing a particularly good job of locating his 93 MPH fastball — According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cueto’s throwing the pitch for a strike 64.9% of the time this year (62-64% MLB average).

So, his control has gone from average to above-average. However, his SO/PA numbers have dropped a good deal — 20.6% in ’08, 17.8% in ’09 and 17% in ’10 (17.8% MLB average). Cueto has gotten in fewer 0-and-2 counts (24% in ’08, 19% in ’09 and 17% this year; the MLB average is 22%), and he’s struggling to put away batters when he gets into two-strike counts:

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 means that the pitcher is worse than most in that area. As you can see, Cueto has been between 23 and 37 percent worse than the average NL pitcher when he gets in two-strike counts.

In those two-strike situations, Cueto goes to his mid-80’s slider often:

Baseball America once dubbed that slider the best in the Reds’ system, but hitters haven’t been as impressed. Cueto’s breaking ball has been whiffed at just 10.4% of the time overall in 2010 (13.6% MLB average). He’s throwing the pitch for a strike 56% (63.4% MLB average). Cueto’s best whiff pitch, relative to the league average, is his fastball — 8.8% (the MLB average is 5-6%).

As Cueto’s expected FIP (xFIP) shows, the pared-down walk rate and lower punch out rate have essentially canceled each other out. His xFIP this season is over a run higher than his actual ERA. The main reasons that he’s got a pristine ERA and an ace-like win-loss record (8-2)? A very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. Chances are, Cueto won’t escape danger quite so adeptly in the second half of the season. He’s not pitching any better with men on base…

…and his HR/FB percentage is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers (Cueto’s career HR/FB% is 11.2). Cueto’s home, Great American Ballpark, actually increased homers per fly ball hit by 14 percent compared to a neutral venue over the period of 2006-2009. If Cueto had surrendered homers per fly ball hit at an average rate on the road (11 percent) and 12.5 percent at home (1.14 times the league average), he would have given up 16 home runs so far (1.3 HR/9) instead of his actual total of nine (0.73 HR/9).

Currently, Cueto throws his fastball for strikes and gets a solid number of whiffs with the pitch. However, his breaking ball lags behind, both in terms control and getting hitters to come up empty. It’s worth noting that he has gone to his changeup more often this season. It has been average in terms of strikes gotten (60.8%, 60.7% MLB average) but below-average in getting whiffs (11%, 12.6% MLB average). Right now, he doesn’t have a second pitch that can put away batters.

The purpose of this post is not to sharply criticize Johnny Cueto, or to suggest that he won’t reach ace status one day. The purpose is to point out that he’s not there yet. Fantasy players run the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias with a player like Cueto — he was supposed to be a star, and a quick glance at his numbers makes it seem as though he has reached that level. But, upon further inspection, Cueto’s still got work to do.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

We’ve dissected the Cliff Lee deal like it’s already done, and from both sides of the deal, so let’s continue on in that vein and look at the pitcher that the Mariners are most likely to call up to replace Lee as early as tonight in Seattle. Even if it’s not the Yankees, the Mariners look like they want to trade Lee before the All-Star break to get the most possible value, so Pineda should be up soon.

The green and gray certainly hope that Michael Pineda day doesn’t end up pinata-like, but by all accounts it should be more of a commencement than a trial by fire. The 21-year-old came into the season as the fifth-best Mariner’s prospect by resident maven Marc Hulet’s standards. Here’s what he said at the time:

A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.

What happened this year is exactly what Mariners fans hoped for and Hulet pointed to as his most important chore this year: Pineda proved he was healthy by not only dominating Double-A on his second attempt (9.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), but by also mowing down Triple-A hitters after a promotion (12.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). He looks ready to go.

In fact, looking at his career numbers (8.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), it might be tempting to label him a control artist with okay stuff, but it has been his work at the higher levels, and this year, which has pushed him into elite territory as a prospect. If the rankings were to come out today, he might just be first, if only because his lowest strikeout rate above Double-A was this year’s 9.1 at Double-A.

As for how he might fare in the bigs, there are two minor pink flags to consider. First, Pineda did have the elbow injury last year, so he didn’t accrue many innings, and only put up 138.1 innings combined in 2008. He’s already at 96 innings this year, and 120% of 138.1 is 165. Even if this is no hard cap on his innings, it’s reasonable to assume that he won’t put in another 100 innings in the second half and will have his innings limited at some point.

The other minor flaw in his repertoire has been the slight tendency towards fly balls as he’s risen in the minor leagues. His overall groundball percentage is decent (46%), but this year, the numbers haven’t looked as good. This year, 42.3% of his balls have guzzled grass, and at each stop from high-A to Triple-A, his groundball percentage has dropped. A number like his Triple-A groundball percentage (36.6%) would be a problem in the major leagues. Even this pink flag has its own caveat, however, as SafeCo is a safe haven for flyballers. According to StatCorner, the park has a 93 park factor for home runs by right-handers, and that number drops to 87 for lefties.

Given the lack of offense behind him, and the chance that the Mariners limit his pitches as well as his innings, Pineda does not make for a good choice for wins. On the other hand, the park should help him continue to develop, and nothing terrible leaps out from his pristine numbers. He’s a strong pickup in deeper leagues, and if he performs well in his first start against a good offense from New York, he’ll even be relevant in mixed leagues for his strikeouts and ratios alone.

After last night’s six-inning, five run beat down at the hand of the Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins righty Scott Baker holds an unimpressive 4.87 ERA. He’s also got a sub-.500 record, winning seven games and coming up short eight times. Those superficial numbers have led some fantasy folks to give Baker the boot — his ownership rate in Yahoo leagues is down to 81 percent. Take closer look at Baker’s season, and you’ll see a starter pitching well but getting dinged by a combination of poor luck and lumbering outfielders.

In 109 innings pitched, the 28-year-old has struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings and has dished out just 1.57 walks per nine frames. In terms of punch outs and free passes, Baker is actually exceeding his pre-season projections — CHONE predicted 6.98 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9, while ZiPS had 7.03 K/9 and 2.07 BB/9 for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy.

Baker’s plate discipline stats are right in line with his career averages. He’s getting swinging strikes 10.1%, while his career rate is 9.9%. Opponents are making contact against Baker 81.1% of the time. His career rate is 81.2%. Baker’s pounding the strike zone, placing 55.4% of his offerings over the plate (54.8% career average), and he’s getting a first pitch strike 65.4% of the time (60.9% career average). His outside swing percentage, relative to the league average, is about the same as usual.

Why is Baker’s ERA so high then? One factor is that he’s surrendering 1.4 home runs per nine innings pitched. Baker is an extreme fly ball pitcher, getting grounders just 35.3% this season and 33.9% during his career. He’s going to give up more homers than most. But even so, Baker has been a bit unlucky this season — 12.1% of the fly balls he has given up have left the yard, compared to a 9.6% career rate and the 11% MLB average.

Also, his BABIP sits at .335. Some will immediately point to Baker’s elevated line drive rate — 23.2% in 2010. It’s true that batted balls classified at line drives typically fall for hits 72-73% of the time, so that’s certainly a factor. But the more important question at this point may be, is that LD rate likely to persist? Line drive rate isn’t an especially stable metric, and there’s little else to suggest that Baker is suddenly getting hit much harder than usual.

Another explanation is Minnesota’s outfield defense, which can kindly be described as stationary when some combination of Delmon Young, Jason Kubel are Michael Cuddyer are manning the outfield corners. Twins fly catchers have a collective -6.8 UZR/150 this season. Young’s career UZR/150 in the outfield is -12, Kubel’s is -18.3 and Cuddyer’s is -6.5. Denard Span has a career -5.3 UZR/150 in center field, but he has rated as a plus defender in the outfield corners (+11.1 UZR/150) and he should rate batter in the middle garden over a larger sample.

As a fly ball pitcher, Baker may be disproportionately affected by sluggish outfield D. Even so, it’s near impossible to believe that the dramatic spike in his fly ball BABIP is solely the result of poor defense:

Baker’s BABIP by batted ball type

Baseball-Reference has somewhat different data for Baker — it shows his overall BABIP as .327. So, what I’m about to do here won’t match up perfectly with the BIS data on Baker’s player page. B-R shows that Twins outfielders have converted 83.4% of fly balls put in play into outs this season. Let’s say Baker had that same rate. B-R has Baker with 131 in-play fly balls this season, 28 of which have fallen for hits. If Baker had a .166 BABIP on fly balls instead of his actual .214 mark, he would have 22 hits given up on in-play fly balls. Baker has given up 107 total hits on balls put in play, out of 327. If he had 101 hits on balls put in play instead, his BABIP would be .309. Even accounting for Minnesota’s laggardly outfield leather, Baker has been unlucky.

As a fly ball pitcher backed by corner outfielders with limited range, Baker’s not in an ideal spot. Still, this guy’s better than his current surface stats suggest. Perhaps Baker won’t match the 3.72 xFIP that he currently totes, but he should be able to post a low-four’s ERA in the second half.