Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Verlander, Pineda, Cahill, Chacin

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Scherzer, Dempster, Zambrano, Moscoso, Cook.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill had an outstanding season with 18 Wins and a 2.97 ERA but many pegged him as overvalued as his xFIP was 3.99 and he had a 4.19 FIP. The reason for the big differences was his .236 BABIP, the lowest mark of any qualified starting pitcher in 2010.

Also adding to the concern was a sub-par 5.40 K/9 and above-average 76.5 percent strand rate.

So, while many were expecting Cahill to crash and burn, he started out 2011 right where he left off last season. After 10 starts he had a 6-1 record and a 1.79 ERA. And his BABIP? It stood at a .259 mark. Perhaps the most surprising thing was that Cahill had 52 Ks in 65.1 IP. He was a star in all four starting pitching categories.

And then the wheels came off. In his last eight starts, Cahill is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA. While his K rate was still above 2010, it slipped from earlier in the season, as he had 31 Ks in 47 IP. But the drop in strikeouts was nothing compared to the extra baserunners. Cahill saw his BABIP balloon to .315 and he allowed 79 men to reach base.

For the season his BB/9 sits at 3.85, nearly a full walk higher than last year’s rate. His WHIP, which checked in at 1.11 a year ago and was 1.10 after 10 starts, now is at 1.34 for the year. Cahill’s strand rate is almost exactly the same from 2010, but more runners on base means more runners crossing the plate.

Cahill still has a very respectable 3.28 ERA and both his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (3.66) are lower than what they were in 2010. So the question for fantasy players is: Was this the regression that was expected and is Cahill a 3.25-3.50 ERA-type pitcher, or is there still more correction to come?

Pitch Type Values show his breaking pitches essentially matching what he did in 2010 but the results from his fastball are just not there. In 2010, Cahill had a wFB of 27.7 while this year it checks in at just 1.4 for the year. On a per 100 pitches basis last year his fastball was at 1.43 (the fourth-best mark in the majors) and this year at 0.13 it’s essentially average.

Last year Cahill averaged 90.4 with his fastball and this year it checks in more than a full mph slower at 89.0. In his April 17th start against the Tigers, when he had 9 Ks in 8 IP, Cahill averaged 90.1 with his fastball. In his last start against the Marlins on June 30th, his average fastball velocity was just 87.4 mph.

A drop of three mph is significant and it is little wonder his fastball has not had the same success as a season ago. Until Cahill can recover that velocity, he is a risky fantasy play.

Last week Gavin Floyd was examined on Sunday night. He threw 14 IP and allowed 13 H, 3 BB and 8 Ks and was 0-1 for the week.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Colby Lewis – Home runs are killing Lewis this year, as he has allowed the third most HR (20) in all of baseball. He was pounded in back-to-back starts where he allowed 4 HR and 15 ER in 4.2 IP in early June. But in his last three starts, Lewis has allowed “only” 3 HR in 20.1 IP and picked up two wins. This week Lewis gets the A’s and O’s. Oakland ranks last in the AL with 43 HR in 83 games. Baltimore has more power, but 50 of its 83 HR have come at home this season. Look for Lewis to maintain his recent strong pitching and give him a starting nod this week.

Shaun Marcum – A hip flexor has slowed Marcum recently after the veteran got off to a 7-2 start in his first season with the Brewers. In his last three outings, Marcum has allowed 8 ER in 9 IP, two of which came on the road. This week Marcum is scheduled for two home starts. And while he has a 4-1 home record this season, Marcum has a 4.13 ERA at Miller Park, nearly two runs higher than his road mark. Given his recent struggles, give Marcum a week off to get healthier.

Wandy Rodriguez – The elbow injury that sidelined Rodriguez for three weeks has not been a lingering problem. He was just finding his stride before being put on the DL and in his four starts since being activated, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA with 20 Ks in 25 IP. While he does have two road starts this week, Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled some with the gopher ball this year, but he takes on PIT and FLA this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Rodriguez should be in your lineup this week.

Tim Stauffer – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose ERA more closely matches his peripherals than Stauffer. His 2.97 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.01 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. Stauffer has been on a role lately, with a 3-1 record and a 1.00 ERA in his past five starts. However, four of those games came at home and the other was in MIN. This week he has to go on the road to face SF and LAD. Stauffer has pitched well away from Petco (3.25 ERA) and neither the Giants (46 runs in last 14 games) nor Dodgers (53 runs in last 15) have been lighting up the scoreboard recently. Look for Stauffer to continue his strong pitching and keep him active.

Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 11 starts, Zimmermann has 11 Quality Starts. And not one of those barely meets the requirements at 6 IP and 3 ER. In fact, he’s only allowed 3 ER once in the 11 games. He has an outstanding 1.85 ERA in this stretch. Yet he’s only 4-3. Zimmermann is not striking out batters at his previous rate but he holds a BB/9 of just 1.75 and has been stingy with the long ball (3.1 HR/FB) this year. The HR rate makes his xFIP (3.67) a full run higher than his overall ERA (2.63) but is still a solid mark. With two home starts this week, keep plugging Zimmermann into your lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Shields, Cain, Lester, Haren, Price, Scherzer, Hudson, Cueto, J. Garcia, Jimenez, Carpenter, Baker, Morrow, Hanson, Burnett, Peavy, Dempster, Nolasco, Zambrano, Carrasco, Tomlin, Harrison, Lowe, Buehrle, Wolf, Lilly, Volquez, Myers, Lackey, Capuano, Duensing, Worley, Pelfrey, Maholm, Pineiro, Richards, R. de la Rosa, Francis, Furbush, Cecil, Volstad, Moscoso, Cook, Jakubauskas, McCarthy, Duke

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Gee – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 6.30 ERA, 1.900 WHIP, 10 IP, 7 ER
Holland – Advised to sit. W, 4 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.575 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Zambrano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER

All of us deep league managers have to do the dirty deed at some point and pick up a player that makes us feel dirty. I still have Juan Pierre on my 20-team roster, for example. Hey, 100 outfielders start in that league, who cares how ugly he is right now. And I don’t mean in the face. He’s handsome enough I guess.

But here are two pitchers that you should avoid in pretty much every league. They just don’t have the underlying skills to be much better than average, and with pitching in abundance these days, there’s someone better out there. Even in NL- and AL-only leagues.

Guillermo Moscoso (1% owned in Yahoo)
He struck out eight Marlins! He’s given up one run in his last 17 2/3 innings! He pitches in a home-run-suppressing park! Yes, but. There really isn’t a single specific skill that you can hang your hat on with Moscoso. He has a putrid 4.6 K/9 which is supported by a bad swinging strike rate (5.4%). He’s had good control in the minor leagues, but his 3.56 BB/9 right now is below-average (hey! not terrible!). He has yet to show his minor league walk rate (2.5 BB/9 in MiLB) in the major leagues (3.90 BB/9). Last, but not least, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. His ground-ball rate this year is is 24.6%, and even with his other 14 2/3 major league innings added in, it only ‘jumps’ to 26.5%. Other players have come up and been underwhelming in their first 50-odd major league innings, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside here either. His Triple-A strikeout rate was around eight per nine, and that’s just not enough for a fly ball guy unless he has elite control. Until you see a bunch of zero-walk games, he’s a miss. Even then…

Vance Worley (5% owned)
This one might be more controversial. He’s probably going to end up fairly valuable to his real-life team, filling in as a fifth-sixth starter. The Vanimal has a 2.57 ERA of course, and his 3.44 FIP isn’t terrible. In his case, though, it seems that his 4.14 xFIP has a little more to say about his true talent level. Worley features the same sort of underwhelming stuff as Moscoso. 50 innings into his major league career, he has a 5.5% swinging strike rate. It’s built on a 91 MPH fastball, a decent 85 MPH slider, a rarely-used curveball and (by linear weights values at least) a poor changeup. If the changeup is indeed poor, he will be susceptible to bouts of ineffectiveness versus left-handed hitters. He gets some groundballs (46% career), but that’s only a tick above average (44% most years). Once his home runs per fly ball normalize (4.2% right now), more balls will leave his comfy little home park, and his ERA will balloon. He could be a spot-starter in some deep leagues, but don’t rely on the Vanimal, cause he might bite you.

During draft season this year, Brandon Beachy was a late-round flier in mixed leagues due to his spring training battle with Mike Minor. After Beachy beat out Minor, owners were still skeptical thanks to underwhelming scouting reports and fear of somewhat of an unsecure role in the Braves rotation. Next season, Beachy certainly won’t be considered a flier if he keeps up his torrid start to the 2011 season.

If I used the word “stud” to describe Beachy, odds are most owners would be surprised and argumentative. A stud they may have never heard of? Ridiculous. If you don’t want to believe that Beachy has been ever so studly, you should look at where he ranks amongst NL starters in key pitching categories. Better yet, let me look at those numbers for you, the busy reader, and break them down in an easily digestible fashion.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.

Nothing like some NL starting pitchers to help boost a fantasy staff, so here’s three quality guys that could be had for free(-ish) on the waiver wire…

Read the rest of this entry »

I tend to ignore small sample size trends and usually throw up a little in my mouth when I read that so and so pitcher is “hot”. But sometimes, these positive trends are actually the result of quiet mechanical changes or the so-called light bulb suddenly going off. Of course, it is very difficult to pick out which pitchers are experiencing a real change in skill and which are just having a good run. Anyhow, I decided to have some fun and sort by xFIP over the last 30 days and peruse the first page of the leaderboard. Some of the more surprising names I found were…

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Floyd

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: none

Well all right then, let’s take a look at Gavin Floyd. When you think of consistent pitchers, Floyd probably isn’t the first guy to come to mind. But since 2009 here are his xFIPs:

3.64
3.69
3.71

Still, Floyd does not seem to be the same pitcher so far in 2011 that he was in the recent past. His K/9 is down, as is his BB/9. Fortunately, his BABIP is 46 points lower than it was a season ago. Looking at his Pitch Types, we have some classification issues going on. Floyd has always relied heavily on his slider but this year he is shown with a cutter rather than a slider. Both pitches were/are strongly positive.

Where we notice a difference is with his curve. It was a great pitch for him in 2009 and solidly above average last year. So far in 2011, it’s right around average. Historically, Floyd has struggled with his off-speed pitches early in the season, but here by late June you would expect to have had him already worked out those kinks.

Instead, Floyd has allowed 10 ER in his last 13 IP and in his last five games he has a 6.08 ERA. He has been victimized by the gopher ball this season. He has allowed 4 HR in his last 26.2 IP and overall this season he’s surrendered 11 HR in 94 IP. Last year he gave up just 14 HR in 187.1 IP.

Floyd has really struggled at home this year, where he’s served up 6 HR balls in 38 IP and carries a 5.21 ERA. Overall, he shows no preference for home or road, with his lifetime ERAs by that split within 0.20 in his career. But this year he has done his best work in road parks, where he has a 3.70 ERA in 56 IP.

This week he has two road starts, as he squares off against the Rockies and Cubs. And while this may seem like real trouble for a pitcher with gopher ball issues, the Rockies are only fifth in the NL in HR at home and the Cubs rank 10th.

There are more negatives than positives for Floyd this week, so if you have the depth you should consider giving him the week off.

About a month ago my Rotographs colleague, the excellent Mike Podhorzer, wrote a piece that wondered if Scott Baker was having the second breakout season of his career. Mike sang Baker’s praises…and apparently not many people listened.

At the time of that publication Baker had 4.12 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Typical for him. As I type this Baker has improved on those numbers tremendously, now sporting a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Over his last five starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs and only four walks. The last two starts have been masterful. Baker spun a complete game, one run gem on June 11th and followed that up with a 10K, eight inning performance June 18th. Despite that run of success – he’s actually won three starts in a row to push his record past .500 – Baker is owned in just 57% of leagues. Here is a list of starters who have a higher ownership percentage:

Gavin Floyd
Carlos Zambrano
Colby Lewis
Ted Lilly
Brandon Morrow
Francisco Liriano

Yes, Liriano, he of the 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP is owned in 30% more leagues than his superior teammate. Personally, I think Baker gets overlooked by most every season because he’s boring. That’s not a knock against him. He just doesn’t do anything flashy. He doesn’t have a cool name. He doesn’t have memorable facial hair. He doesn’t pump his fist or smash Gatorade coolers in the dugout in frustration. He’s just Scott Baker, and he’s trying his best to make you notice this season.

As Mike pointed out, his K/9 is at a career high. It was a bit higher when Mike penned his piece, but at 8.64 it still ranks fourth in the American League. I don’t have the Pitch f/x wizardry to tell you if he’s spotting his pitches better this season, but his fastball does have more movement this season according to texasleaguers.com. That could account for the higher rate of strikeouts despite Baker throwing his 91mph fastball more often than last season. His success this season hasn’t been lucky either, as his FIP and xFIP are each under 4.00 to go along with the 3.24 ERA.

To me Baker has always been very similar to James Shields. Both were above average, but not great pitchers the past 3-4 seasons but seem to have taken a leap this year. Every team can’t have aces in every starting pitching position. Guys like Scott Baker provide real value to your team. Add him, won’t you?

Uneven Trades

Most owners this season have filled their DL slots and probably have an injured player or two on their bench. As these players return from the DL, it might be a good time to look to make a trade that is a little lopsided, but benefits both parties.

Read the rest of this entry »