The SwStk% metric is one of my favorites on FanGraphs. We would expect the statistic to be a good proxy for a pitcher’s raw stuff, as a swinging strike is the ultimate pitch result. Therefore, it should correlate highly with strikeout rate. And intuitively, it does. From 2001-2010 using a sample size of 59 pitchers, SwStk% had a 0.87 correlation with K/9. It is not higher because luck still plays a role, and K/9 includes called strikes which obviously SwStk% does not. So now that we know SwStk% matches up with K/9 quite well, I like to rank pitchers by each to determine who might have some hidden strikeout rate upside or downside.

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Two starters and an outfielder for your team before the weekend begins…

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Now that fantasy leagues are back on a 7-day week schedule, it’s time to take our first look at upcoming two-start pitchers. Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 2.

Mark Buehrle – After opening the season with two poor road outings, Buehrle has home starts this week against the A’s and Angels. From 2008-10, the veteran Buehrle has been 26-14 at home compared to 15-21 on the road. Earlier in his career, Buehrle was all over the map as far as performance. However, he has become a reliable hurler the past few years. While he may not strike out more batters for you than a middle reliever this week, he should post respectable ERA and WHIP numbers and has a chance to post two Wins. Make sure he is active in your lineup.

Kevin Correia – After posting a 5.40 ERA in 2010 while playing half his games in Petco Park, few had high hopes for Correia this year in Pittsburgh. But he starts the year off with Wins in his first two games and a nifty 1.38 ERA, putting him on the radar of fantasy players everywhere. But don’t be fooled. Correia has a 4.86 xFIP, much closer to his 4.45 career rate in the category. With games against the Brewers and Reds, look for Correia’s ERA to balloon and do not add or start him if you can help it.

Ryan Dempster – When you drafted Dempster you imagined him as a guy you put in the lineup each week and did not worry about his roster spot. And generally that’s true, although you might want to investigate alternatives this week. Dempster has road starts in Colorado and in Houston, two parks which are hitter-friendly and in which he has struggled recently. Lifetime Dempster is 3-7 in Minute Maid Park and he is 1-3 with an 11.35 ERA in Coors Field. Combined with his rough start to open the season, it looks like a good time to give him a week off if you can.

Kyle McClellan – After 202 appearances in the majors as a reliever, McClellan made his first start this year, as he moved into the rotation to take over for the injured Adam Wainwright. McClellan showed strong peripherals in his time in the bullpen and carried that over to his first start, as he allowed six hits in six innings while walking one and fanning seven. The matchups are not overly favorable to McClellan this week, with road starts in Arizona and Los Angeles. But both of those clubs have struggled some offensively out of the gate and are in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. He’s a good waiver pickup if he is available in your league and if he is already on your roster you should consider giving him a start this week.

Esmil Rogers – During his brief time in the majors, Rogers has put up some ugly ERAs but has gotten strikeouts and ground balls, two things which bode well for his future performance. He continued with that combination in his first outing of 2011, with 7 Ks and 11 ground balls in 7.1 IP. Rogers was hurt last year in the majors due to his .385 BABIP, a figure that should heavily regresses in 2011. Rogers has decent control and his high ground ball rates help keep his gopher ball totals low. Combined with the strikeouts that is a pretty nice package for a guy likely on the waiver wire. Go out and grab him and do not be afraid to start him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Kershaw, Carpenter, Haren, Hanson, Billingsley, Marcum, Volquez, Myers, Hellickson, Stauffer, Niese, Braden, Pelfrey, Latos, Blanton, Hammel, L. Hernandez, Volstad, Enright, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

With only a week of baseball in the books, it is time for small sample size analysis! Here are some thoughts on various AL starting pitchers.

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Notes on three starters in the senior circuit to end your Wednesday, including a Mike Minor update!

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Coming off a season in which he posted a gruesome 5.18 ERA, James Shields is a favorite sleeper and undervalued asset of the statistically-inclined fantasy owner. The majority of these owners will cite Shields’ career high strikeout rate of 8.3 in 2010 as a primary reason to be bullish. In fact, I even mentioned it when I boldly predicted that Shields would post a sub-3.80 ERA in 2011. However, we are being slightly fooled by relying on that sneaky K/9 ratio.

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Much has changed for Michael Pineda since he was a lanky, projectable 16-year-old who signed with the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic in 2005. The right-hander now stands 6-foot-7, 260 pounds, pops mitts with upper-90s gas, and is considered a potential ace by the prospect pundits: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, ESPN’s Keith Law and our own Marc Hulet all rank Pineda as a top-25 farm talent.

The M’s have named Pineda their fifth starter to begin the 2011 season, and the 22-year-old is primed to make an instant fantasy impact. Seattle will be careful with Pineda’s innings, but King Felix’s sidekick has it all — K’s, control, a quality defense and a friendly home ball park.

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Over the weekend the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals each did some house cleaning, dispelling themselves of  a couple of volatile and disgruntled players in Carlos Silva and Nyjer Morgan. The impact of these moves is minor in the world of fantasy, but will be felt nonetheless.

The Cubs released Silva on Sunday after one season with the team while still owing him $11.5 million dollars. It’s not hard to see why the Cubs chose to part ways with the pudgy starter. While his numbers weren’t awful in 113 innings last season – 4.22ERA/3.90 xFIP – Silva has a 5.87 ERA in 55 starts since he signed his big contract with the Mariners. He’s also gotten into a few dugout altercations, has never been in shape, and criticized the team publicly – and that was just this spring. There had been rumblings that the Cubs were trying to trade Silva, with the Yankees and Nationals reportedly scouting him, but no deal could be reached. Silva shouldn’t have been owned in mixed leagues, so his joblessness won’t be felt by many. The most interesting aspect of Silva’s departure is the man replacing him in the Cubs’ rotation.

Andrew Cashner has limited MLB experience, his 54.1 IP last season all being in relief. While he walked too many hitters (4.97 BB/9) in those 54 innings, his K/9 was a healthy 8.28 and ERA and xFIP of 4.80 and 4.40 were respectable for a rookie. Many publications believe Cashner’s best value would lie in being a power reliever, maybe even an eventual closer, but the contract that Carlos Marmol received this off season made that less of a reality. Instead, he’ll slide into the back of the Cubs’ rotation. The Marcel projection system has Cashner down for a 4.24 ERA and 4.25 FIP for 2011, but that is in 52 innings of relief work, so take that for what you will. He has a plus fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a passable changeup, and a slider that gets strikeouts with the same frequency as his fastball. He’s mostly an NL only play for now, but possesses the tools and pedigree to have value in mixed league formats as well.

Unlike the Cubs, the Nationals were able to find a take for their malcontent, trading Nyjer Morgan to the Milwaukee Brewers for Cutter Dykstra and cash. Morgan had been in a battle this spring for playing time with Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr,  Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse among others. That battle is clearly over, and Bernadina has since been demoted. If Morgan hadn’t worn out his welcome with two suspensions last season, he certainly had this spring, telling reporters that he expected to be traded and that a change of scenery might be best for him. An extremely productive player as recently as 2009 – .307/.369 with 42 SB – he slipped a bit last season but still produced 34 steals.

If Morgan was unhappy with his playing time situation in Washington, he’s really going to hate it in Milwaukee. Carlos Gomez is the incumbent starter and has been assured by the manager and GM that the job is still his. Morgan will serve as a suitable 4th outfielder and pinch runner unless an injury occurs – effectively killing his fantasy value. Back in D.C. early signs point to Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston Jr sharing the centerfield duties, which isn’t encouraging for fantasy owners. For a team that is going nowhere this season it would seem like giving the younger Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse more playing time would be the smart way to go for the Nationals. You know exactly what you’re getting from Ankiel and Hairston, why not explore the talents of the younger (though Morse isn’t exactly a kid) players. The four outfielders would all be platoon players, which isn’t something fantasy owners like to see. The situation is a mess at the moment, and I’d recommend staying away until things get settled.

Continuing this series of comparing FanGraphs Points league scoring to traditional scoring, we’ll begin looking today at pitching.  To start, I decided to look at a traditional points scoring system compared to the ottoneu points scoring system.  There is no apparent “standard” fantasy points system, but I chose the points scoring used at CBSSportsline as my comparison, as it seems fairly typical of systems you see out “in the wild.”  Let’s start with a list of the top-10 pitchers by their system in the 2010 season:

For reference, I also included their rank according to total FanGraphs Points.  Overall, it doesn’t look that different, right?  The top three are identical, and most of the top-10 are ranked similarly in both systems.  There are two pitchers who had a ranking disparty of at least 10 spots, however: David Price and Tim Hudson.

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We’re splitting the outfielder and starting pitcher rankings into two leagues so that your positional correspondents can handle the workload. But you’re in a mixed league and drafting this week. So, for your use, we smashed the outfielder rankings together this week.

Now it’s time for the pitchers.

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