Here’s a pair of Padres pitchers (always a good demographic to target) that could give your pitching staff a boost…

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Let’s take an All-Star break look at the top five starting pitchers who are most underperforming their xFIP marks. We are still nowhere close to reaching the number of batters faced for ERA to stabilize, as research has found it to be above the 750 PA mark, which represents the high value of the interval tested. As a result, going forward xFIP has much more predictive power.

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Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.

Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.

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It’s nearly All-Star break time and my fantasy team is running out of time to remember how to hit. Since offense is crazy again this year, my brain is hurting trying to figure out these wacky hitter seasons. So, let’s talk about pitching…American League starting pitching of course. Last month’s rankings for your enjoyment. Oh, and yes, I did realize I have no fallers in the rankings. Not sure how that happened, but it is mostly because any fallers were only a couple of spots within a tier and did not warrant a shiny down arrow.

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Ever wonder how the starting pitchers representing the NL in the All-Star game ranked in terms of fantasy value? Wonder no more!

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For the first time this season, I nabbed a waiver wire pick from the “most dropped” players in CBS leagues. Since fantasy owners are generally as bad as non-professional stock market investors, picking up the hot players and dropping the cold ones just to watch the trend reverse shortly thereafter, I will continue checking out that list.

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Zack Greinke is currently starring in ‘The Peripheral Disconnect,’ but Felipe Paulino has been a worthy leading man for the role during most of his career. The 27-year-old righty, long a scouting favorite for his mid-90s gas and upper-80s slider, has nearly a run-and-a-half difference between his xFIP (4.06) and ERA (5.50).

Yet Paulino, now in his third different organization within the past year, appears poised to get off baseball’s D-list by matching process and results with the Royals. Given a chance to start in K.C before another wave of upper-echelon pitching prospects arrives, the former Astro and Rockie is making Dayton Moore look like a smart man.

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Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Verlander, Pineda, Cahill, Chacin

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Scherzer, Dempster, Zambrano, Moscoso, Cook.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill had an outstanding season with 18 Wins and a 2.97 ERA but many pegged him as overvalued as his xFIP was 3.99 and he had a 4.19 FIP. The reason for the big differences was his .236 BABIP, the lowest mark of any qualified starting pitcher in 2010.

Also adding to the concern was a sub-par 5.40 K/9 and above-average 76.5 percent strand rate.

So, while many were expecting Cahill to crash and burn, he started out 2011 right where he left off last season. After 10 starts he had a 6-1 record and a 1.79 ERA. And his BABIP? It stood at a .259 mark. Perhaps the most surprising thing was that Cahill had 52 Ks in 65.1 IP. He was a star in all four starting pitching categories.

And then the wheels came off. In his last eight starts, Cahill is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA. While his K rate was still above 2010, it slipped from earlier in the season, as he had 31 Ks in 47 IP. But the drop in strikeouts was nothing compared to the extra baserunners. Cahill saw his BABIP balloon to .315 and he allowed 79 men to reach base.

For the season his BB/9 sits at 3.85, nearly a full walk higher than last year’s rate. His WHIP, which checked in at 1.11 a year ago and was 1.10 after 10 starts, now is at 1.34 for the year. Cahill’s strand rate is almost exactly the same from 2010, but more runners on base means more runners crossing the plate.

Cahill still has a very respectable 3.28 ERA and both his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (3.66) are lower than what they were in 2010. So the question for fantasy players is: Was this the regression that was expected and is Cahill a 3.25-3.50 ERA-type pitcher, or is there still more correction to come?

Pitch Type Values show his breaking pitches essentially matching what he did in 2010 but the results from his fastball are just not there. In 2010, Cahill had a wFB of 27.7 while this year it checks in at just 1.4 for the year. On a per 100 pitches basis last year his fastball was at 1.43 (the fourth-best mark in the majors) and this year at 0.13 it’s essentially average.

Last year Cahill averaged 90.4 with his fastball and this year it checks in more than a full mph slower at 89.0. In his April 17th start against the Tigers, when he had 9 Ks in 8 IP, Cahill averaged 90.1 with his fastball. In his last start against the Marlins on June 30th, his average fastball velocity was just 87.4 mph.

A drop of three mph is significant and it is little wonder his fastball has not had the same success as a season ago. Until Cahill can recover that velocity, he is a risky fantasy play.

Last week Gavin Floyd was examined on Sunday night. He threw 14 IP and allowed 13 H, 3 BB and 8 Ks and was 0-1 for the week.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Colby Lewis – Home runs are killing Lewis this year, as he has allowed the third most HR (20) in all of baseball. He was pounded in back-to-back starts where he allowed 4 HR and 15 ER in 4.2 IP in early June. But in his last three starts, Lewis has allowed “only” 3 HR in 20.1 IP and picked up two wins. This week Lewis gets the A’s and O’s. Oakland ranks last in the AL with 43 HR in 83 games. Baltimore has more power, but 50 of its 83 HR have come at home this season. Look for Lewis to maintain his recent strong pitching and give him a starting nod this week.

Shaun Marcum – A hip flexor has slowed Marcum recently after the veteran got off to a 7-2 start in his first season with the Brewers. In his last three outings, Marcum has allowed 8 ER in 9 IP, two of which came on the road. This week Marcum is scheduled for two home starts. And while he has a 4-1 home record this season, Marcum has a 4.13 ERA at Miller Park, nearly two runs higher than his road mark. Given his recent struggles, give Marcum a week off to get healthier.

Wandy Rodriguez – The elbow injury that sidelined Rodriguez for three weeks has not been a lingering problem. He was just finding his stride before being put on the DL and in his four starts since being activated, Rodriguez is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA with 20 Ks in 25 IP. While he does have two road starts this week, Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled some with the gopher ball this year, but he takes on PIT and FLA this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Rodriguez should be in your lineup this week.

Tim Stauffer – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose ERA more closely matches his peripherals than Stauffer. His 2.97 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.01 FIP and 2.99 xFIP. Stauffer has been on a role lately, with a 3-1 record and a 1.00 ERA in his past five starts. However, four of those games came at home and the other was in MIN. This week he has to go on the road to face SF and LAD. Stauffer has pitched well away from Petco (3.25 ERA) and neither the Giants (46 runs in last 14 games) nor Dodgers (53 runs in last 15) have been lighting up the scoreboard recently. Look for Stauffer to continue his strong pitching and keep him active.

Jordan Zimmermann – In his last 11 starts, Zimmermann has 11 Quality Starts. And not one of those barely meets the requirements at 6 IP and 3 ER. In fact, he’s only allowed 3 ER once in the 11 games. He has an outstanding 1.85 ERA in this stretch. Yet he’s only 4-3. Zimmermann is not striking out batters at his previous rate but he holds a BB/9 of just 1.75 and has been stingy with the long ball (3.1 HR/FB) this year. The HR rate makes his xFIP (3.67) a full run higher than his overall ERA (2.63) but is still a solid mark. With two home starts this week, keep plugging Zimmermann into your lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Shields, Cain, Lester, Haren, Price, Scherzer, Hudson, Cueto, J. Garcia, Jimenez, Carpenter, Baker, Morrow, Hanson, Burnett, Peavy, Dempster, Nolasco, Zambrano, Carrasco, Tomlin, Harrison, Lowe, Buehrle, Wolf, Lilly, Volquez, Myers, Lackey, Capuano, Duensing, Worley, Pelfrey, Maholm, Pineiro, Richards, R. de la Rosa, Francis, Furbush, Cecil, Volstad, Moscoso, Cook, Jakubauskas, McCarthy, Duke

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Gee – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 6.30 ERA, 1.900 WHIP, 10 IP, 7 ER
Holland – Advised to sit. W, 4 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.575 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 6 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Zambrano – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER