Bobby Parnell & Franklin Gutierrez: Deep League WW
For the first time this season, I nabbed a waiver wire pick from the “most dropped” players in CBS leagues. Since fantasy owners are generally as bad as non-professional stock market investors, picking up the hot players and dropping the cold ones just to watch the trend reverse shortly thereafter, I will continue checking out that list.
Bobby Parnell, NYM RP | 3% Owned
It is never too early to start speculating on trade deadline activities. With current Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez apparently available for trade, Parnell is the likely replacement. The good news: Parnell’s strikeout rate has increased each season in the Majors, as has his average fastball velocity. His GB% remains above average and his skill set has yielded xFIPs below 3.00 last season and this year so far. The meh news: His control is just so-so and his SwStk%, although good at 9.9%, does not match up with a K/9 above 10.0. As a result, I expect the strikeout rate to drop back a bit. That said, he does appear good enough to be a solid closer if given the opportunity. Even if that chance does not arise, good middle relievers actually have value in deep leagues, so there is little downside here.
Franklin Gutierrez, SEA OF | 9% Owned
I was quite surprised to see an everyday outfielder, who went 12/25 and 18/16 over the last two seasons fall below the 10% ownership mark. Of course, it is no surprise given his current performance, which includes a .182/.217/.227 slash line and a gruesome .195 wOBA. Gutierrez got a late start to the season due to stomach issues, but it is hard to imagine that could be the reason for his poor results. Maybe a slow start was to be expected, but he is up to 132 at-bats, so some signs of life should have been expected. Amazingly, he is striking out less than ever. After having never posted a K% better than 20.6%, that mark is currently sitting at an excellent 12.9%. But with no power, a .202 BABIP, and line drives just 13.2% of the time, it is easy to see the cause of his struggles. We still are not exactly sure why this is though. Gutierrez is still just 28 and although admittedly the Mariners offense is pathetic, it is hard to ignore his decent power/speed skills of past years. He is obviously far from warranting attention in mixed leagues, but in deeper ones, his history suggests it is worth taking a shot on a rebound.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Gutierrez is tiny (physically) compared to years past. The stomach issues that have plagued him for the past year and a half have really taken a toll his playing weight, which is hurting his overall output at the plate. I honestly don’t expect him to come back to ’09 form any time this season because of this. Here’s hoping he can spend the off-season bulking up and regaining form.
I love Parnell in New York, though. There aren’t any other longterm options in the Mets’ pen as it currently stands, so he’s a great nearly risk-free play at this point. K-Rod’s chances of being dealt seem pretty high, and even if he isn’t traded there seems to be a solid chance that the Mets stop allowing him to close games before he hits the 55 games finished mark that guarantees his $17.5 million option for 2012.
Bodhizefa, the Mets can’t simply demote Krod to middle relief in order to prevent the option from vesting. The Player’s Association would file a grievance, and they would win (easily). If Krod isn’t trade and doesn’t get hurt, he’ll be the closer.
They couldn’t demote him outright and get away with it, but they could give KRod extra rest in between outings, use him carefully… they could basically try to employ a timeshare between KRod and Parnell to avoid the big payout. Additionally, they could yank KRod from the role if he has a few bad outings in a row and have justification to defend against any grievance that would follow. Better keep pitching well, KRod!
That’s incorrect. Heck, the Blue Jays cut Frank Thomas a few years back just so he wouldn’t get the plate appearances for his vesting option. It happens, and I don’t think the Player’s Association can really stop it.
Bod, the Jays cut him early in the season when he was batting under .200. He wasn’t close to having that option vest. If the Mets demoted Krod to middle relief as he approached the option, there’s no way the player’s association would let it slide.
If Krod suddenly lost his ability to pitch and he was getting hammered, maybe things would be different. With an era in the 3’s, more than a strikeout an inning, and a performance in line with his tenure as a Met, there’s no way they can get away with it.
I’m not sure Parnell would be the next in line for saves, with his tiny 0.78 inLI. Isringhausen appears much more trusted with his (second on the team to K-Rod) 1.52 inLI–and perceived value as a previous closer.
Chris, I would imagine Isringhausen would be trade bait as well. He’s been solid this year, he has a team-friendly contract, and he has plenty of previous closing experience. Unless the Mets make up some serious ground in the WC race, I don’t see why they’d keep him.
Bucholz, Byrdak, and Beato are all above Parnell on the inLI leaderboard for the Mets this year…is there any other anecdotal evidence from interviews etc. you can point to that says Parnell would be in line behind K-Rod and Izzy?
By the way, I agree that Parnell is the best option and worth owning for ratios and k/ip alone in larger leagues–I’m just trying to nail down the nebulous world of saves.
Izzy is on the block as well though. It’s a big if, but IF they both get dealt … But yeah, it would have to be a deep league.
Quoting average leverage index makes me think some of you can’t see the forest for the trees. Do you guys really think the Mets would go with Isringhausen over Parnell? Really? Does that pass your own sniff test?
Roster skills, gents. He’ll have the closer gig by year’s end if K-Rod is dealt — I’m pretty sure of it given his skillset (and barring injury).
Can’t see the forest for the trees…Izzy notches a save last night.