In an effort to boost my post views and comment total, I went for the obvious to analyze my projections for next. Given the fact that Matt Moore has recently appeared on several 2013 Hall of Fame ballots, I thought it would be timely to determine just how worthy of a vote he may be. I present to you America’s Next Great Pitcher™. And yes, I have dibs on royalties if that becomes a future reality show.
160
That is by far the most important number related to Stephen Strasburg’s 2012 season. Not 62, his current ADP according to Mock Draft Central, with a range of 35-90 in mixed drafts. Not 9.3, his K/9 according to ZiPS, which is actually on the lower end of most projections that have been published so far. Not 5, the number of both the number of starts he made during the fantasy playoffs last year or his projected WAR according to the fan projections. 160, or the number of innings the Nationals are believed to have capped Strasburg at for the 2012 season before taking the leash off in 2013. Read the rest of this entry »
Where would you anticipate a pitcher with a 1.07 WHIP, a 3.29 ERA, and a 9.92 K/9 would be getting drafted? To put those numbers in perspective, his WHIP would have been 11th best among starters, his ERA would have been in the top 30, and his K/9 would have been 3rd best in baseball, provided he had qualified for the ERA title, which he did not. While Cory Luebke’s numbers put him as one of the 20 best starters in baseball, his ADP of 138 very clearly does not. According to Mock Draft Central, Luebke is being drafted anywhere from 94th to 216th in mixed leagues, commonly landing between Anibal Sanchez and Tim Hudson. Read the rest of this entry »
Judging the Braves defense in 2011 depends on which stats or methods you see as the most accurate. For instance, UZR has the Braves ranked in the bottom five of defensive teams while DRS has the Braves ranked in the top nine. Alex Gonzalez (-0.3 UZR, +15 DRS) and Freddie Freeman (-12.6 UZR, 0 DRS) are the two players the numbers disagree with most, and are a big reason for the differences in the two totals.
Whatever stats you decide to look at, it is easy to see that the Braves’ defensive strength was in the outfield, where both Jason Heyward and Martin Prado were above average defenders. The Braves shuffled centerfielders for a majority of the season, with Jordan Schafer, Michael Bourn, and Nate McLouth all amassing similar innings totals in center. McLouth was quite poor in center while the other two were at least average to above average.
The problem with the Braves defense, and what is likely to be an even bigger problem this season, was the infield. Freeman likely is not the plus defender many expected, but he probably also is not as bad as the one year UZR sample suggests. He is closer to average defensively, which is fine. Gonzalez was a top notch defender the whole season, which was the lone reason for the Braves sticking with him at shortstop for the entirety of the year was in his high quality glove.
Last week we asked you folks to help give us an idea of Yu Darvish’s expected production in ottoneu points leagues during the 2012 season, and 135 of you were kind enough to response. It’s not the 560 responses we got for the 5×5 stats, but it’s more than enough for me. I blame it on the difference in popularity between the two scoring formats.
As a reminder, the points scoring is ottoneu is based on linear weights. You can review the point values and derivations here. The table after the jump shows the average crowdsourcing result for stat (rounded off) and the corresponding point value.
It is hard to believe that the perpetually disappointing Homer Bailey is still just 25. It feels like he has been around forever, continually failing to live up to all the hype he once garnered as a top prospect. I had once thought he was overrated and was not too excited about his prospects, but I have become cautiously optimistic, once again thinking this may finally be the year. Will it be?
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our first over/under game, let’s take a look at Madison Bumgarner.
The over/under number for Bumgarner is 20%. As in, will he strike out more or less than 20% of the batters he faces in 2012?
The 6′ 5″ lanky lefty suddenly upped his swinging strike rate in 2012 despite using the same slate of offerings at about the same velocities. If you had access to FG+ this year, you would be able to read about how best to use his Pitch F/x information to answer this question — thanks to Josh Weinstock. And — thanks to Michael Barr — you’d also have an equation for expected K% that would be derived from his 2011 peripherals.
But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can. Please use anything other than the xK% equation for your argument, and make it as long or as short as you like otherwise.
Have at it!
The RotoGraphs reader mock draft analysis never ends. See what happens when you participate in a draft we help facilitate? You get articles written about you all week! Today I will look at all the American League starting pitchers drafted and compare each with their current average draft position (ADP).
The Orioles and Rockies pulled off a mildly surprising trade yesterday, with Jeremy Guthrie heading to Colorado in exchange for Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel. The money is essentially a wash, so each club just rearranged the furniture a little bit. Guthrie’s fantasy outlook does change with the trade, but just how much? Let’s figure it out.
First and foremost, we have to understand that Guthrie is one of those rare guys that defies DIPS theory. He’s logged over 1,000 innings in the big leagues, and his career ERA (4.19) is roughly half-a-run lower than his FIP (4.68) and xFIP (4.61). As with Matt Cain, the guy has thrown so many innings that we’re at the point were we have to start thinking about him differently than other pitchers because he possesses some kind of skill that allows him to outperform his peripherals. I don’t know how he does it, but he does. Read the rest of this entry »
Once Yu Darvish agreed to his fat new contract with the Rangers a few weeks ago, we crowdsourced his traditional 5×5 stats to determine his fantasy worth. The results came back, and the 560 responses indicated that most of RotoGraphs’ readership expects him to approximate the 2011 version of Madison Bumgarner next season, meaning he’s a top 15-20 starting pitcher. This week we’re going to take it a step further and crowdsource Darvish’s ottoneu points stats.