As we head into the final weeks of the season, it’s nearly time to get a jump on next year’s research. One of the first exercises worth performing is comparing a pitcher’s actual ERA with his SIERA. While in some cases there are legitimate explanations for over or underperformance of SIERA marks, for the most part, you should treat SIERA as your baseline for your next season ERA projection, rather than actual ERA. Here are the five pitchers who have outperformed their SIERA marks the most this season.

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Let’s all go streaking! Streaming. Yeah, streaming. It might be useful for head-to-head playoff scramblers if we pointed out the nice matchups for the weekend. If the schedule holds, you might be able to get the jump on your competitor by picking up a good Saturday start today, for example. Good luck, and keep your clothes on, for the most part. Pants are overrated though.

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Similar to yesterday’s post in which I advocated picking up Lance Lynn and streaming him in daily leagues, I am going to touch on two pitchers that are owned in a majority of leagues that I am shying away from this weekend. There are of course leagues in which you simply have to start these guys, since you may find difficulty finding replacements or need every attempt at strikeouts and wins to keep you alive for another week, but if you have the ability to avoid starting these pitchers, I would advise to do so this weekend.
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The Athletics are trotting out pitchers who simply refuse to walk opposing batters. It’s getting crazy really. In fact, every member of their current rotation with the exception of Jarrod Parker, sports a sub-2.0 walk rate! That’s pretty amazing. Two of those pitchers have pretty much come out of nowhere this year. Let’s see what we can expect next season.

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I am more of a head-to-head guy than a roto player, and my main leagues over the years have mostly been daily leagues rather than weekly. That’s rather odd for the industry, but there are certainly a lot of leagues out there that are similar and sometimes get neglected in fantasy writing. One of the main reasons people run from these kinds of leagues are streams, but with weekly caps on player additions I feel these kinds of leagues are sort of “making a comeback.” With that said, there are still ways to stream pitchers and at this time of year, if you don’t have a strong pitching staff or one of your rotation members just got shut down – looking at you Jeff Samardzija and Stephen Strasburg – finding a replacement is extremely difficult.

One pitcher I would gamble on is Lance Lynn, who is scheduled to start this week in place of Jake Westbrook. Lynn has spent the past few weeks in the bullpen, so he is available in a lot of leagues and if any pitcher on the waiver wire has the upside of Lynn, I don’t know what kind of league you’re playing in. Sure there are guys with solid matchups, but Lynn has been pitching to major leaguers all year and for the most part was very effective against them. He sputtered after the All-Star break and his move to the bullpen as warranted, but if I am looking for one good start off of a waiver wire member I am most certainly willing to put my faith in Lynn against the Dodgers on Thursday.

Even in his struggles, he was still striking out batters at a decent clip. The 5.23 ERA over his last eight starts is ugly, but 39 strikeouts in 41.1 innings at least gives the ability to get a big strikeout night and could potentially push you ahead of your opponent in that category given the right circumstances. Most of the time when I look at the waiver wire this time of year I end a post with “this guy is probably not a team saver,” but I honestly believe Lynn could be that guy that saves your team. If you have an offense that should perform well against your opponent, streaming a guy like Lynn could provide you with enough juice on the pitching end to squeak by. That’s the situation I am in in my head-to-head league and I am confident Lynn succeeds against the Dodgers this Thursday. If you are looking for someone to stream, go with Lynn if he is available. If it doesn’t work, feel free to blame me. I think it will.

It’s time for another day of deep league waiver wire gems. If you’re in need of a third baseman or corner infielder or desperate for pitching, read on!

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The regular season is over for most fantasy leagues and the playoffs have begun, meaning all of that long-term planning and patience kinda goes out the window. Here are two players — one pitcher, one hitter — who can help you during the postseason push these next few weeks…

Zach Britton | SP | Orioles | Owned: 30% Yahoo! and 36.9% ESPN

Britton, 24, returned from the DL earlier this season and needed a few weeks to settle in before really taking off. Prior to yesterday’s self-imposed meltdown against the Yankees — five walks in 3.1 innings — he had allowed just three runs in his previous four starts combined. That included seven walks, 29 strikeouts, and a 55%+ ground ball rate in 28.2 innings against the Tigers, White Sox, and Blue Jays (twice).

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I am not one to ever make much of a small sample size, especially just two weeks worth. However, pitchers usually show a change in skills more quickly than hitters (or at least it can be identified more easily). Plus, as we make our way through the final month of the season, we have to deal with the reality that pitchers do tire and/or, younger pitchers are getting figured out. Here are three American League starters who have posted surprisingly poor SIERA marks over the last two weeks.

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Chris Carpenter – Carpenter has begun throwing a few pitches to see if he can possibly make a start before the end of the season. He has a small chance of returning after being out for the entire season.

The Cardinal hurler had a great 2011 season and helped the Cardinals win the World Series. He began the season with shoulder pain and eventually had surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (I am not sure exactly what it is, but it sounds bad) on July 19th. Initially, it was reported that he was not going to return this season, but signs are starting to point to a return.

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The fantasy playoffs are upon us. And while it looked like Stephen Strasburg would be the only prominent pitcher to be shut down before the season ended, that’s no longer the case. The Mets are planning to shut down rookie Matt Harvey after one more start. Harvey has been phenomenal this season, and has been a great pickup for fantasy owners. In any non-keeper leagues, his stock is sure to soar next year. Unfortunately, his absence during the fantasy playoffs is going to hurt a number of teams. And while losing Harvey is far from ideal, another pitching prospect will be making his return this week, and could have value down the stretch.

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