As Eno pointed out yesterday, streaming on the final day of the season can be a tricky proposition. Teams headed for the playoffs might pull back a starter or at least give him an early hook while team that are out of it could leave a pitcher in far longer than he should be left in (rember Edwin Jackson’s last start?). But if you can grab even the slightest advantage in your final head to head match-up or you can eke out another point or two in your roto league, you’ve got to do whatever it takes to give yourself the best possible chance to win. Here are some names to consider here at the end… Read the rest of this entry »

I am doing the streaming pitchers dumpster diving edition. As Eno just pointed out, tomorrow looks like the day to mass stream. I will only be looking at pitchers owned in 10% or less of all leagues at Yahoo.

Notice – Don’t worry about streaming pitcher’s hurting a team’s WHIP values. It is the last few days of the season and players are really not care too much about winning, except those on a few teams. The players are hacking away and walk rates drop by about 10% over the last few days of the season.

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Jake Peavy has been one of fantasy’s biggest surprises this season. While Peavy had been an ace with the San Diego Padres, his time with the Chicago White Sox left quite a bit to be desired. Though he missed time with various injuries, the biggest one came last season. Peavy tore his right latissimus dorsi tendon completely off the bone. No major league pitcher had ever suffered from that injury. Because of that, no one knew what to expect from Peavy. After a resurgent 2012, Peavy has re-established himself as a fantasy ace. But he still carries considerable risk, which could make him a questionable keeper for next season.

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On Saturday, I checked in on the National League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests a strikeout rate surge may be coming next season. Today, I will identify the pitchers whose SwStk% suggests the opposite side of the coin, those whose strikeout rate may be in for a decline next year. As a reminder, the league average is a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.

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On Wednesday, I compared American League starting pitchers’ strikeout rates and SwStk% marks to determine who may be in line for a K/9 surge next season. Today I perform the same exercise, but for the National Leaguers. As expected, the league average is slightly better, as starters have averaged a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.

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Looking at what’s available this weekend, perhaps it should be titled “steaming” weekend starters because there’s slim pick’ens to be had.  Still, there are some interesting options for you should you be in panic mode for wins and strikeouts, a mode in which the author of this post resides in at least two leagues. So let’s get to it.

Steve Johnson

Yes, Steve Johnson. Johnson, who slogged through the minors for the past eight years, seemed to finally put it together in AAA in 2012 with a 2.86 ERA and a 8.5 K/9. He gave up just 66 hits over 91 innings pitched at AAA, striking out 86 batters. He was called up to Baltimore mostly to serve as a reliever where he’s been quite effective — throwing 16 innings, giving up just 7 hits and striking out 21 batters. But he’s also been used as a spot starter, making three starts and he’s been equally good. In those starts, he’s thrown 17 innings, given up 12 hits (10 singles), and struck out 22. His main bugaboo (oh, Mom I blame you for that word) is the free pass as he’s walked 15 batters over his 33.1 innings pitched and he’s had a history of control issues throughout the minors.

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The offseason is nearly upon us. And for those of you not fighting it out in the championship, it’s important to be aware of some of the offseason’s important story lines. Obviously, everyone will pay attention to the major signings. By the time FanGraphs+ comes out, you’ll all already be aware of Josh Hamilton’s new home, or whether Zack Greinke will remain in LA. While second-tier signings can sometimes to easy to forget, they can also lead to significant value in fantasy leagues. The free-agent pitching market isn’t necessarily filled with superstars. There are many players that have experienced success throughout their careers, but come with question marks. Still, if these players end up in the right situations, they could have big time value for your fantasy team.

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Every so often, I take a look at the SwStk% leaders and compare those marks to the pitchers’ strikeout rates. Since the two metrics are highly correlated, for obvious reasons, a high SwStk% that does not match up with a corresponding strikeout rate may suggest a surge is imminent. Here are a couple of pitchers whose Swstk% hints at strikeout rate upside for next year. Keep in mind however that SwStk% itself will vary year to year and so this assumes a similar level. For context, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.

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Neither of these pitchers are tremendous long term candidates for rotation spots, but with the season winding down speculating on a potential quality start could earn you just enough to win your league. Two guys I like this week are Andrew Werner of the Padres and Tyler Cloyd of the Phillies. Both have decent strikeout rates in a small number of innings, so there is a chance they help even if they blow up. While those are not quite the words you want to hear when you are anticipating picking up a late season starter, it does at least raise their downside bar a tiny bit.
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In a special edition of the deep league waiver wire, I identify some pitchers who are widely available and have a decent matchup next week. It’s your last chance to gain ground in wins and strikeouts, though of course you must consider the potential damage to your ERA and WHIP.

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