Learning fantasy lessons in the postseason is a tricky affair. By its nature, a postseason series is a small sample. Also by its nature, a postseason series receives greater emphasis, fair (the games are high leverage when compared to a mid-season tilt) or not (they’re still just seven games). Even though the statistics are kept separately and are often out of mind, though, the fact that this is still baseball means that there is something that can be gleaned from it.

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On Monday, I took a look back at the hitters who I boldly predicted would lead the league in each of the 5×5 fantasy categories. Well, I made those same predictions for pitchers as well in the pre-season. So, let’s see if I did just as poorly or had some better luck.

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On Wednesday, I took a look back at who I calculated to be the most overvalued pitchers versus their pre-season average draft position (ADP). Today, I will review the pitchers I identified as the most undervalued. I had excluded the reliever turned starter group, but since I was very bullish on Chris Sale, I would guess he would have appeared had I not excluded them.

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Looking back at the 2012 season, we’re out to attempt to identify players that represent the very best return on the dollar in the respective “award” categories. Recall that this is a best value kind of series, not necessarily the best player.

To that end, we need to award the American League Cy Young to the pitcher who provided you the most production for the least possible cost. And among the staff votes, we have a tie between Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, thus the regrettable title of this piece. And it’s not hard to see why we’re divided.

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I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.

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Freedom from shame at least. They were supposed to be bold. So let’s revisit those predictions.

[Sorry no chat today, gotta get my stuff done before heading to the city for the Bay Area meetup. And sorry for abrupt ending last week, got an important call.]

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A week ago I identified several American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests an imminent strikeout rate surge. I then took a detour to look at both sides of the coin for National League starters, and now I’m back for the potential K/9 decliners in the AL. As a reminder, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.

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As Eno pointed out yesterday, streaming on the final day of the season can be a tricky proposition. Teams headed for the playoffs might pull back a starter or at least give him an early hook while team that are out of it could leave a pitcher in far longer than he should be left in (rember Edwin Jackson’s last start?). But if you can grab even the slightest advantage in your final head to head match-up or you can eke out another point or two in your roto league, you’ve got to do whatever it takes to give yourself the best possible chance to win. Here are some names to consider here at the end… Read the rest of this entry »

I am doing the streaming pitchers dumpster diving edition. As Eno just pointed out, tomorrow looks like the day to mass stream. I will only be looking at pitchers owned in 10% or less of all leagues at Yahoo.

Notice – Don’t worry about streaming pitcher’s hurting a team’s WHIP values. It is the last few days of the season and players are really not care too much about winning, except those on a few teams. The players are hacking away and walk rates drop by about 10% over the last few days of the season.

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Jake Peavy has been one of fantasy’s biggest surprises this season. While Peavy had been an ace with the San Diego Padres, his time with the Chicago White Sox left quite a bit to be desired. Though he missed time with various injuries, the biggest one came last season. Peavy tore his right latissimus dorsi tendon completely off the bone. No major league pitcher had ever suffered from that injury. Because of that, no one knew what to expect from Peavy. After a resurgent 2012, Peavy has re-established himself as a fantasy ace. But he still carries considerable risk, which could make him a questionable keeper for next season.

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