Jeremy Hellickson was a major bust candidate entering last season. The 2011 Rookie of the Year may have pitched well according to traditional methods, racking up a 2.95 ERA over 189 innings, but the peripherals told a different story. Hellickson didn’t display a dominant skill set, posting very average strikeout and walk rates. Most of all, Hellickson’s .223 BABIP was the lowest figure in the league among starting pitchers. Even with all the warning signs, Hellickson succeeded again. And while his .261 BABIP didn’t lead the league, it still tied him for sixth. After two straight seasons of outperforming his peripherals, and posting low BABIPs, it’s time to start wondering whether this is going to be a trend with Hellickson.

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I would like to reintroduce you to the good A.J. Burnett. He has finally reappeared. Whatever was done with him over the last couple of seasons, we are thankful for his safe return. After two straight miserable seasons in New York where predictably the media claimed that Burnett simply couldn’t pitch in New York and contracted Ed Whitsonitis, Burnett rebounded in his first year back in the National League.

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Strikeouts. Max Scherzer has never wanted for strikeouts. 2011 was his worst season as a professional in that regard, and he still struck out about 21 percent of the hitters who faced him. He doesn’t get enough groundballs and he doesn’t throw a lot of complete games, but at the end of the day, Scherzer sends a staggeringly high number of opposing hitters shuffling back to their dugout in shame.

Scherzer’s downsides – an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP north of 1.30 for his career – were never enough to prevent owners from deriving value from Scherzer, but they absolutely pushed him down draft boards and suppressed his trade value. After his move to Detroit, Scherzer added double-digit wins to his profile, which helped his value in theory, but since most owners know how fickle wins can be, it didn’t do much for his long-term value or perception. Read the rest of this entry »

When Zach first posted the starting pitcher rankings I spent a few minutes looking at the list, mulling over who would be interesting to write about. Players like David Price and Justin Verlander were the easy, obvious choices. But, I instead fixed my eyes upon the 101st name on the list, someone who tormented me relentlessly as a member of nearly all of my teams this season: Ricky Romero.

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When the Giants won the World Series in 2012, there were a number of contributors at whom to point when fans were looking for someone to thank. Buster Posey was an absolute beast in the second half, Sergio Romo stood tall when closing out games and even Tim Lincecum deserved a healthy bit of gratitude for his relief work during the playoffs. But for me, it was Matt Cain who deserved most of the accolades. From his lights-out start of the season to his perfect game in June, over a minor July speed bump, and into an August recovery for the stretch-run, Cain put the team on his back and carried them for the first half until the rest of the team picked it up after the All Star break and then helped them finish of the National League in style.  He was, without questions, the workhorse the Giants needed him to be. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs’ move to plant Jeff Samardzija in their 2012 Opening Day rotation certainly raised a few eyebrows. Here was a formerly highly-touted prospect who had struggled immensely from 2008-2010 as he bounced back and forth between starter and reliever roles. In 2011, he seemingly found his niche in the middle-to-late innings; compiling an impressive 2.97 ERA while operating solely out of the Chicago bullpen. So it comes as no surprise that more than a few Cubs fans (as well as outside observers) were a bit skeptical that moving Samardzija to the rotation after a solid spring was in the team’s best interest long-term. His name may have cropped up in a few deep sleeper articles here and there, but for most drafters, there was no hype to be found; the Notre Dame project didn’t even crack ESPN’s top 200 drafted starting pitchers (by ADP). But owners who did manage to scoop him up were treated to a pleasant surprise, as he cost next to nothing, but ended up finishing 43rd in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings; ahead of more ballyhooed names like Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, and Matt Moore (among others).

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The transformation of Madison Bumgarner into a fantasy ace is nearly complete. Over the last 2 seasons, he is 21st in ERA, 8th in FIP and 18th in WHIP. Last season, he was selected after some other comparable pitchers since he was not a known and/or trusted quantity yet. I would expect him to reproduced his excellent 2012 season except for his last 7 starts. They are a warning sign of possible future struggles.

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A last-ditch effort by the Tigers brass prevented Anibal Sanchez from tossing for this third team in less than a year, and also gives fantasy players a bit more clarity in regards to his fantasy expectations for the upcoming season.

I had largely touted Sanchez prior to last season for a couple of reasons. For one, his durability the past two seasons led me to believe he’d rack up another solid season near 200 innings. Granted, unless it’s Mark Buehrle or Justin Verlander, one can’t really predict such a thing, so I won’t count this as a feather in my cap. One thing I was counting on was the strikeouts, which had returned in a big way in 2011 after taking a hiatus in 2010. Additionally, Sanchez’ walk percentage was trending quite nicely, and in fact settled under 6% when the dust settled on 2012. Finally, I had heard rumbles from a few different folks that the new Marlins Stadium would be Petco East. For a pitcher who is kind of a tweener with batted-ball rates, I figured he’d benefit from these conditions. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Lohse turned in the best season of his career at age-33. Since joining the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008, Lohse has flashed the ability to be an effective pitcher. It wasn’t until his walk year that he finally put everything together. Lohse tossed 211 innings, with a 3.51 FIP. Very few pitchers are able to get better in their early-30s, but Lohse appears to have done just that. But that was with the Cardinals, a team notorious for turning mediocre veterans into useful cogs. And with Lohse likely leaving for another team this offseason, it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to sustain the magic.

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Rumors of his demise were premature. After Mat Latos was traded to the Cincinnati Reds exactly one year ago, many felt that his fantasy value would tumble. Moving from the friendliest pitcher’s park to a home field that inflated offense would not be a good change. When you also factor in a fly ball rate that has always been higher than the league average and the significant difference in home run factors between the two parks, it really wasn’t much of a surprise that fantasy owners were concerned. But, to hell with park factors said Latos, as he posted an identical ERA this season as last year with San Diego. He even posted a better ERA at the Great American Ballpark than in away parks.

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