Given his initial contract demands, three years at about $15 million per year, and what he signed for, three years at $11 million per year, it’s hard to argue that Kyle Lohse was one of the offseason winners. That said, the initial responses to the deal seem to point to the idea that even if Lohse lost, the Brewers didn’t exactly win by signing him. The money isn’t likely to be an issue with the deal – Lohse only needs to be worth about two wins a season to justify the cost – but the loss of a draft pick to a division rival is an abstract cost for which Lohse won’t be able to directly answer.

But the money is spent, Lohse is a Brewer, and the question at this point is whether or not he’ll be able to provide the team with value above and beyond the two wins necessary to justify his contract. Read the rest of this entry »

“Don’t trust the spring training numbers.” It’s a common phrase uttered by wise fantasy analysts. For many reasons, spring training stats are an unreliable gauge of a player’s talents. Despite the constant reminders that spring numbers don’t matter, countless articles will be written chronicling “player X” and his excellent spring. Rick Porcello has emerged as one of the more popular spring breakout candidates this year. Ninety-five percent of the time, it would be wise to laugh off these articles as small sample size fodder. But in the case of Porcello, there may actually be reason to buy into the hype.

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OMG, we’re a week away from BASEBALL that counts! You’ve seen the consensus starting pitcher rankings, questioned them and have been eagerly anticipating the tiers for a more detailed breakdown. Your wait has ended. It’s time to continue spurring comment arguments as I unveil the first edition of the American League starting pitcher tiers.

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In standard drafts, the late round flyers are some of my favorite picks because on the one hand they “cost” you extremely little and on the other, there’s always the chance that you’ve picked up a gem on the cheap. Position battles are perfect spots to look for hidden value because many managers aren’t willing to float a pick for someone without a regular gig. With that in mind, there are a few starting pitching battles which might actually feature arms worth rostering.

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Finally, we get to the starting pitchers, my favorite position. If you thought there was room for disagreement among the outfielders, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The many disagreements of value among starters and the multitude of later round sleeper options is precisely why my strategy in every single draft/auction I participate in is to pay the least for my staff or wait many a round to draft my first starter. For this last episode of Pod’s Picks, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 84 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 84. I went with 84 assuming about seven starters per team in a 12-team mixed league would earn positive value.

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A couple weeks ago, I covered C, 1B, 2B, and SS. Since then, I have also shared my rankings spreadsheet. Today, we cover 3B, OF, SP, and RP.

The lessons are going to remain pretty similar – guys with high walk rates rank higher, guys with a lot of speed rank lower – and will extend to the pitching sphere nicely – closers lose some value, guys projected for close to 20 wins lose some value, pitchers who keep the ball in the yard gain value. But it is still informative to look position by position and see where the differences manifest.

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Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.

Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.

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Last week was all about the consensus ranks. This week, you’ll see some tiered ranks as we also try to finish up the depth chart discussion. But before we move on too quickly, I thought it would be interesting and informative for me to pick out the players that I liked and disliked more than the other analysts involved in the consensus ranks. Hopefully I’ll have a short, concise reason for my rankings in each case. Hopefully.

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It’s so tempting when discussing the Reds rotation to gloss over the front end in favor of Aroldis Chapman. He’s definitely the dominant storyline with this team, but whether he becomes a dominant starter is far less clear. Thankfully for the Reds, they aren’t counting on him to lead the rotation, just to fall in behind Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, who are underrated as a top-of-the-rotation pair. There are a few pairs I like better – Clayton Kershaw/ Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez chiefly among them – but the Reds are hardly wanting for quality with those two.

Projected Rotation

Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Aroldis Chapman
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo

Waiting in the Wings

Mike Leake
Tony Cingrani
Armando Galarraga Read the rest of this entry »

In what is likely my last Pod Projection post of the year (my eBook teaches you how to forecast players yourself!), Johnny Cueto wins the honor of finishing up the series. Cueto has posted sub-3.00 ERAs two years running now, despite all ERA estimators sitting significantly above those marks. Great fortune (skill?) in the three “luck” metrics we analyze is the explanation for his ERA estimator beating ways. Can it continue?

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