Erasmo Ramirez is coming. Last year, the changeup was enough to star in Orgazmo. This year, there have been some bumps in the road. Just how sexy will he be for mixed leaguers isn’t quite so obvious.
Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.81. Ricky Nolasco has a career ERA of 4.44. If the season ended today, it would be the second time he’d ever shown an ERA under four. Given his skill set (good strikeout rate for a starter, excellent control) and home park (both versions of Miami’s home park were pitcher-friendly), it’s a bit surprising. But since that breakout second, full season in 2008, Nolasco has frustrated his owners. Now that he’s finally on the move to Los Angeles, which boasts a pitcher’s park, but also a better team, are all systems go? What about the fact that ERA becomes a better tool when you’re talking about 1000-inning samples? Is Nolasco somehow fatally flawed?
Since joining the RotoGraphs team, I’ve discussed two minor leaguers who were (at the time) leading the minors in a fairly notable stat category. There was Micah Johnson with his stolen bases, and Ryan Rua with his home runs.
Today, I’m going to talk about another player leading the minors in something: righthanded pitcher Matt Koch, who sports a 61/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No, K/BB ratio isn’t a fantasy category in many leagues, but it’s also a broad stat that encompasses a lot of ability, so such dominance merits a closer look into Koch’s skillset.
Aaron Griffin struck out a season high four batters in his fourth and final outing of June, but that’s just part of what you’re going to get from the Rays RHP prospect.
Griffin was economical and used a mixed bag of tricks to get Brooklyn Cyclones hitters out, going four innings without allowing a run and holding them to just four hits.
I will never recommend chasing after a hot streak or benching a player until he “shows signs of life”. But sometimes, especially when it comes to pitchers, players do make real changes that have a positive effect on their performance. While I have no idea if these particularly pitchers have, it’s always interesting to identify who the best pitchers have been over the last 30 days from a skills perspective.
Tyler Chatwood has emerged as the best pitcher on the Colorado Rockies. Through 44.2 innings, Chatwood already has accumulated 1.4 WAR. Jorge de la Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin may rank ahead of him, but it’s only due to pitching more than twice the amount of innings. That’s pretty shocking considering Chatwood’s performance in the majors prior to 2013. In 206.2 innings, Chatwood had a career 4.96 ERA, and his 4.98 FIP and 7.76 xFIP didn’t leave a ton of argument for improvement. At the same time, Chatwood was promoted way too aggressively. Considering Chatwood converted to pitcher his senior year of high school, began his professional career the following season and was pitching in the majors at age-21. But two years later, that inexperience has become less of an issue. The raw Chatwood is starting to take steps toward becoming a finished product.
Desperate for pitching in your deep league? Of course you are! So that means that this is your lucky day as I feed you a spoonful of starting pitcher options for your consideration.
Yesterday, I unveiled the best pitcher expected walk percentage equation yet. By simply looking at the percentage of total pitches that are thrown for a strike and the rate at which the strikes thrown are put into play, we can get a pretty good idea of what a pitcher’s walk percentage should be. I was literally in the middle of typing up today’s post putting the equation to work on 2013 data to get an idea of which pitchers should have a higher or lower BB% when another light bulb went off.
For my birthday, I’m giving myself a present.
That present? A good scolding.
Because maybe I’ve made too many excuses for Zack Greinke over the course of his career. Maybe I’ve wishcasted him into a role he doesn’t occupy. Is he really a fantasy ace? What’s going on with him this year? And if the answer to the first is No, then how much do we care about the answer to the second. These are the things I contemplate on the day that I hang up another number next to my name.
Jarrod Parker wasn’t right early in the season. Through April, Parker had given up 43 hits in 29.1 innings, and carried a bloated 7.336 ERA. There were some analysts who started to wonder if there was something wrong with the 24-year-old. Just before worry could turn into legitimate concern, Parker pulled himself out of his funk. The turning point was a May 17 start against the Royals. Since that start, Parker has a 2.19 ERA over seven starts. That’s hardly a large sample, but it’s enough to put those April fears to rest. Much of Parker’s early struggles came from an inability to locate his fastball. While that issue hasn’t completely gone away, Parker has been able to survive by making a few tweaks to his approach.