I try to avoid analyzing small sample sizes, but I feel a pitcher’s small sample is significantly more insightful than a hitter’s. Well, at least if you are looking at the correct statistics. Obviously, ERA isn’t one of them. Strikeout percentage is though, as it could be the result of increased velocity, altered mechanics or a change in pitch mix. With this in mind, here are a smattering of pitchers whose appearance on the last-30 day K% leaderboard may surprise you.

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The Tigers won’t allow their Class-A pitchers to go more than an inning or two, maybe three, and short-season Connecticut starter Jonathon Crawford is no exception.

Crawford has done well in eight starts (0-2, 1.89), with three of them extended to three innings. He began August with an outing against the Brooklyn Cyclones, going 2.2 innings and didn’t allow a run on three hits. He struck out three and walked two.

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I recently wrote an article about Marco Scutaro and how his real-life value is far superior to his fantasy value. The on-the-field versus on-paper value disconnect has always been interesting to me since I started seriously playing fantasy baseball. Following up on the Scutaro article, I wanted to find an example of a starting pitcher who has been exceedingly effective on the mound, yet that effectiveness has not translated to fantasy value.

My immediate reaction was to focus on Hiroki Kuroda. He’s a guy who doesn’t strikeout many batters, yet consistently generates good results. However, he’s been the 11th-best starting pitcher in ESPN leagues this year. That knocks him out of the running for this article.

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To say it’s been an up-and-down season for Chris Capuano is putting it more than a little mildly. After a solid first half of 2012, Capuano fell apart down the stretch so badly that he entered 2013 as one of three excess Dodger starters, with little path back to relevance short of a trade. But then Chad Billingsley got hurt, and Zack Greinke got hurt, and Josh Beckett got hurt, and Ted Lilly got hurt, and Aaron Harang got traded — not necessarily all in that order — and Capuano found himself with a chance.

That lasted all of two innings on April 16 before he left with an injured calf, and when he returned in May, he made five starts of varying quality before landing on the disabled list for a second time, this due to a strained lat. Capuano rejoined the rotation in June, but was told he was headed to the bullpen when the Dodgers acquired Ricky Nolasco… only for that plan to be abandoned when Stephen Fife found himself sidelined with a sore shoulder hours later.

So after all that, Capuano is still in the rotation, and it brings us to this: Capuano has been really, really good lately, and he’s got an incredibly easy run of opponents lined up. Read the rest of this entry »

Finally, we arrive at the final tier rankings update of the season. It’s okay, you could get out your box of tissues and let the tears stream freely down your cheeks.

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Hey, sometimes you have to dig deep, right?

If you’re in a hole in innings pitched and/or you’re scrambling for wins any way you can find them, there are a couple names in Henderson Alvarez and Joe Saunders who are extremely likely to be available in your leagues. And as it happens, they’ve been pitching pretty decent. Should you take the risk?

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Mat Latos proved the doubters wrong last season. When he was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Cincinnati Reds, there was some debate over whether he could carry over his strong performance to his home park. No one went overboard and predicted despair, but there were some legitimate reasons to think Latos’ stats would decline since he was leaving one of the best pitcher’s parks for one of the most favorable hitter’s parks. After churning out a nearly identical 3.48 ERA, there was little doubt about his ability, regardless of his home park. But Latos is aware of his surroundings. And due to some minor alterations that may have been made to combat his tough home park, Latos could be on his way to his best season as a pro.

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Anyone remember who the unexpected darling of spring training was this year? Okay, fine, it was Yasiel Puig. But if we stick to either Florida or the mound, then the man collecting the most acclaim in March was Detroit pitcher Rick Porcello, who struck out 21 in 24 innings without allowing a single walk. Now, you know as well as I do that spring training numbers don’t really matter, yet it’s hard to ignore a 21/0 K/BB.

That kind of buzz made Porcello something of an early darling among fantasy players, especially as he entered his age-24 season with a solid (if small) four year trend of declining home run rates and increasing K/9 rates behind him. Porcello had lowered his FIP and his xFIP each year of his career, and so far in 2013 he’s continued that trend (see table at right). By all indications, Porcello has continued improving as a pitcher, and he’s right ahead of James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, and Cole Hamels on the FIP charts.

Yet here we are in the first week of August, and Porcello has only a 4.49 ERA. He’s still owned in fewer than 20% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. What gives? Read the rest of this entry »

Pirates righthanded pitcher Tyler Glasnow stayed put at the trade deadline, but not before being tossed around as a centerpiece of many a trade rumor. His name, therefore, has penetrated the consciousness of many a fan. The recent swirlings aren’t the only thing that have boosted Glasnow’s stock: 128 strikeouts in 93 1/3 innings in A-ball as a 19-year-old have a way of doing that on their own. The fact that he’s 6’7″ heightens the intrigue–even without seeing him live, the age, size, and numbers all paint the picture of a dominant flamethrower with bigtime stuff. A wunderkind. A legend in the making. Glasnow wasn’t even a can’t-miss amateur who we could all see coming–he was a mere fifth-round pick back in 2011. I won’t say he came out of nowhere, but this is definitely a breakout campaign–he came in as the Pirates’ #19 prospect before the season according to Baseball America, which indicates he was somewhat noteworthy but hardly a central figure in their system like he is today.

If you don’t actually go and see Glasnow, it’s easy to get swept up in trains of thought that bear an aura of mythology, imagining this 6’7″ teenager who rose out of obscurity and became Justin Verlander overnight. But I have seen this fast-rising arm live (on June 14, against Greensboro), and today, I want to separate the reality from the hype on this intriguing young pitcher.

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In one of the few trade deadline deals with potential fantasy ramifications, Bud Norris now finds himself surrounded by crab cakes, rather than Texas barbecue. In the last consensus rankings update, I ranked Norris 57th among all starting pitchers, which was surprisingly the most optimistic of the crew. Surprising because I thought I had been pretty pessimistic about Norris’ prospects. In my July tier rankings update, I slotted him into “The Great Disappointment” tier, which was the last group of pitchers. So does the move to a contending Baltimore team boost his fantasy stock?

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