Archive for Starting Pitchers

Ricky Nolasco’s Career Year

The Dodgers have one of the top starting rotations in the game as they head into the playoffs, and it’s not hard to see why. Clayton Kershaw might be the best pitcher on the planet, while Zack Greinke has been just about as good as Kershaw over the last two months. Behind that pair, Hyun-jin Ryu has been fantastic in his debut season, and might have been the slam-dunk Rookie of the Year in a campaign that didn’t feature Jose FernandezYasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, and so many others.

With that trio leading the way, it’s easy to forget the 30-year-old veteran who only joined the team in July after having been rescued from Miami, and whose main claim to fame during parts of eight seasons in the big leagues is that he constantly (and infuriatingly) under-performed his peripherals. But since arriving in Los Angeles, Ricky Nolasco has been every bit as effective as his more famous teammates, with a 2.07 ERA and 3.06 FIP in 12 starts. Luck? Increased happiness at being away from the Marlins, back in a pennant race, and pitching for his childhood team? Or has something actually changed other than his zip code? Read the rest of this entry »


Chris Beck’s Quick Ascent: Can He Overcome His Low K-Rate?

On August 6, the White Sox promoted starting pitcher Chris Beck from High-A Winston-Salem to Double-A Birmingham. A common question I heard when that news broke was “Isn’t that rushing him, since his strikeout rate is low?”

My response to that line of questioning was always “No, he’ll be fine.” And indeed he was, making five great starts in Birmingham down the stretch (28 IP, 22/3 K/BB, 0 HR, 2.89 ERA, 2.16 FIP). Ending his first full professional season by overmatching Double-A hitters is a great sign, but what of the low strikeout rate? How does the 76th overall pick of the 2012 draft project?

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Is Ubaldo Jimenez Back?

Over the last 30 days, this pitcher ranks second  in strikeout percentage among all starters with at least 20 innings pitched. In the second half of the season, this same pitcher ranks ninth among that group of starters in ERA, with a 1.94 mark. Since the beginning of June, the man in question has posted a 2.63 ERA. Of course, you know from the title that I’m talking about Ubaldo Jimenez.

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Pitching Streamers For 9/10 Through 9/15

After an awful debut showing several weeks ago when I first started identifying streaming candidates, I came back with a roar last week to save face. In 6 starts spanning 35.1 innings, my streamer staff won 4 games and posted a sterling 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, while compiling 30 strikeouts. I’m pretty sure that was better than any of my actual staffs filled with start-every-week pitchers. Here are this week’s picks.

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Not Buying Jorge de la Rosa

After only pitching a total of 69.2 innings in 2011 and 2012, Jorge de la Rosa has enjoyed a productive bounce-back season in which he’s compiled a 3.31 ERA, and his 16 wins are the second-most in Major League Baseball. Those two statistics have made de la Rosa extremely relevant in standard rotisserie leagues. In fact, he’s been more valuable than Justin Verlander, Gio Gonzalez and Kris Medlen in ESPN leagues, which immediately demands attention.

That value is what makes his 44.6% ownership rate in ESPN leagues so fascinating. He’s widely available on the waiver wire in most leagues, yet he’s been effective all season — including recent starts. The southpaw hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in a start since July 29 and has won six-consecutive decisions. Although pitcher wins remain a roll of the dice in many ways, it’s surprising such a stretch would fly under the radar for so many owners, leaving him on the waiver wire collecting fantasy points for no one.

The fantasy baseball community has seemingly decided this level of performance is largely unsustainable, essentially treating him like fellow left-hander Jeff Locke who has similar ownership rates. Unlike Locke, though, de la Rosa hasn’t imploded down the stretch. He continues to find success and has been the 30th-ranked starting pitcher over the last 30 days.

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Jose Campos: What’s Left?

At this point, it’s fairly well-accepted that the vaunted Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade has not worked out especially well for either the Yankees or the Mariners. Montero has hit all of .252/.293/.377 while playing poor defense and amassing -1.0 WAR; meanwhile, Hector Noesi has gone 2-13 with a 5.79 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and -0.7 WAR. Montero’s been the second-worst catcher of the past two seasons according to WAR, whereas Noesi has been the third-worst pitcher (min. 100 IP). Meanwhile, Pineda has yet to throw an inning for the Yankees due to injury problems.

Indeed, the only player of the four in that deal who was healthy and remotely effective for the duration of the 2013 season was the throw-in on the other side, Jose Campos. Of course, the level he was effective at was Low-A, and Campos has endured his own post-trade misfortune, making five starts in 2012 before being shut down with elbow problems and missing the rest of the season. But he once was considered arguably the top pitching prospect in short-season ball, and he did have a fine season this year, with a 3.41 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 77/16 K/BB in 87 2/3 innings (The low innings total was due to an extremely short leash–with the exception of one outing, he was only allowed to work 2-4 innings each time out–not an abbreviated season). So what exactly do the Yankees have here?

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New AL Starting Pitcher Faces

Today I’ll look at a mix of recent American League starting pitcher call-ups and neglected rookies who have yet to get any real RotoGraphs write-up love. Some of these names may still be available in your AL-Only league and several are most certainly in your mixed league. Let’s see if any of them have any chance of providing value over the rest of the way.

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Time to Pick Up Charlie Morton in All Leagues?

We haven’t been reporting all the Charlie Morton news that’s fit to print. Our last update on “mini Roy Halladay” came in mid-June and was for a Deep League Waiver Wire piece. He’s advanced a little in our estimation since. Is it time to pick up Charlie Morton in all leagues?

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Pitching Streamers For 9/3 Through 9/8

A couple of weeks ago, I did a pretty terrible job of recommending pitching streamers for each day over the remainder of the fantasy week. The results of the five starters were not pretty. Together, they pitched a total of just 26.1 innings, earning 1 win and posting a gruesome 6.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. But hey, they did record 29 strikeouts! I am rarely a fan of the streaming strategy to begin with, but given your league context and standings situation, there are times in which it might be advisable. If you deem that this is the case, then here’s your guide.

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Don’t Forget About Marco Estrada

Right-hander Marco Estrada was a popular sleeper for 2013, and I certainly championed that cause. After all, he was coming off a season in which he compiled a 3.35 FIP with more than a strikeout per inning and an ADP (average draft position) between 225-250. He represented solid value and legitimate upside in the later rounds.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. The 30-year-old hurler struggled with the long ball and owned a 5.32 ERA when he landed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury in early June. His peripheral numbers remained solid, but his home run rate of 1.82 HR/9 ranked among the worst in the league in the first half. It undermined any chance he had to post a respectable earned run average.

Most owners understandably dropped Estrada, especially when his hamstring injury lingered longer than expected and he missed 58 games in June and July. Since returning, though, the right-hander is reminding fantasy owners why analysts included him in so many sleeper lists prior to the season. It may be time to swipe him off the waiver wire, as he’s only owned in 14.1% of ESPN leagues.

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