2013 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: August Update
Finally, we arrive at the final tier rankings update of the season. It’s okay, you could get out your box of tissues and let the tears stream freely down your cheeks.
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Yu Darvish
Max Scherzer
I was this close to dropping Justin Verlander from his perch at the top, but the so-called mechanical flaw that was fixed before his last start led to good results. In fact, it was his first start all season in which he didn’t issue a walk! Crazy. After missing a couple of weeks last month with a back injury, Yu Darvish hasn’t missed a beat since returning, striking out 35 batters in 26.1 innings.
As such a huge proponent of SIERA and largely ignoring ERA, I’m kicking myself for not seeing this coming from Max Scherzer. I wouldn’t argue with anyone if they believed he will be the most valuable starter in the American League the rest of the way. Of course, he has been to this point, but depending on which RoS projections you trust more, they don’t expect him to maintain that type of value.
David Price
Chris Sale
C.C. Sabathia
James Shields
Jered Weaver
Yes, David Price has been brilliant since returning from his triceps injury, but his strikeout remains down (just a 6.3 K/9 since returning), as he has done it with impeccable control (only 1 walk in 57.1 innings!) and good fortune. Though I had my reasons for keeping Chris Sale in the tier below for so long (mainly due to the weak White Sox offense and innings concerns), I finally moved him up. But not because I changed by tune, moreso because of the concerning struggles of C.C. Sabathia and James Shields.
Sabathia’s ERA estimators suggest bad luck, and during last night’s Yankees game, it was noted that his mechanics and location looked much better. Yet, he has just one strikeout as I type this, so I am not so confident that he’s fixed at all…if there was any fixing to do, rather than just an improvement in luck. Shields, though, I am more concerned about due to his recent control/command issues. Although he walked just two in his last outing, he simply could not find the strike zone with his curve ball and his usual pinpoint command seems to have gone missing. Are the concerns Jeff Zimmerman voiced from his February warning finally manifesting? I don’t know if it’s an injury or just a rough patch.
Looks like Jered Weaver is back…and has been for a while. Those declining skills? Probably a small sample size fluke.
Anibal Sanchez
Jake Peavy
John Lackey
Matt Moore
Derek Holland
Matt Garza
Jake Peavy‘s value gets a nice boost upon his move from the White Sox to the Red Sox. John Lackey‘s strong skills have been maintained all season. His monthly xFIP has never been above 3.50. Remember he used to be one of the better American League starters, so this isn’t completely out of nowhere. Has Matt Moore’s elbow bothered him all season? Off and on? Who knows, but it’s obviously a big red flag. He’s expected to return shortly though, so he only gets a small drop in the rankings.
It hasn’t been a totally legit breakout season for Derek Holland, as his SIERA is nearly 60 points higher than his ERA. But, he is displaying the best skills of his career and the SwStk% is way up. Matt Garza makes his debut on the AL version of the tiers and drops a bit from where I ranked him in the latest consensus update. The move to a tougher ballpark and the American League more than offsets the increased win potential from the better offense backing him.
Doug Fister
Hiroki Kuroda
Josh Johnson
Hisashi Iwakuma
Justin Masterson
Jon Lester
C.J. Wilson
R.A. Dickey
Ervin Santana
Hiroki Kuroda is the exact same pitcher he has always been, just with better BABIP and LOB% luck, both of which are sitting at career bests. Is Josh Johnson back? Well, he didn’t allow a home run in his last outing, which is quite the accomplishment. Before that outing, he had allowed a homer in four straight games. I have a hard time believing his balky knee is the culprit considering he has had no problem striking batters out or posting a walk rate right in line with his career.
Just when you think that Jon Lester has turned the corner after two straight 8 strikeout performances, while only allowing 2 runs total in those two starts, he allows 6 runs in 4.1 innings. I wish I had an explanation for his skills decline, but he still shouldn’t be posting mid-4.00 ERAs.
I continued to give R.A. Dickey the benefit of the doubt, but the reality is, his monthly xFIP has never been below 4.22. He drops within the tier, as last year looks like a distant memory.
Alex Cobb
Ivan Nova
Scott Kazmir
Danny Salazar
Jeremy Hellickson
Erasmo Ramirez
Rick Porcello
Felix Doubront
Hector Santiago
Ryan Dempster
Roberto Hernandez
Alex Cobb is expected to return shortly and I am cautiously optimistic. He was posting fantastic skills before the unfortunate incident, but one wonders if it will affect him psychologically and hamper his performance. It will be a wait and see situation, but he has the potential to deliver much greater value than this tier suggests.
Danny Salazar joins the tiers and although he allowed 4 runs in 7 innings in his return to the Indians last night, he also struck out 10 versus just 1 walk. It also came against the Tigers, the second best offense in baseball by wOBA. He’s still just a rookie with all of 13 MLB innings to his name at this point, so I am trying to contain my excitement. But damn he looks to be a good one. Too bad his extended time in the rotation has to come at the expense of Corey Kluber. But fear not Corey Kluber Society members, regular meetings will still be held. Phew.
Well, Erasmo Ramirez’s first four starts haven’t exactly gone as hoped. The fly ball rate is worrisome at the moment, but assuming he gets that back down, he should have some value in shallower mixed leagues.
Phil Hughes
Dan Straily
Jarrod Parker
Tommy Milone
Alexi Ogando
Jose Quintana
Chris Archer
A.J. Griffin
Garrett Richards
Bartolo Colon
Scott Feldman
Chris Tillman
Wei-Yin Chen
Zach McAllister
Bud Norris
Jarred Cosart
Though Jarrod Parker has posted sub-4.00 ERAs every month since April, his xFIP marks have exceeded 4.00, and was even above 5.00 in July. The only decision I had to make was whether or not to drop him to the bottom tier, not whether to promote him a tier. Bartolo Colon, meet regression. It was bound to happen sooner than later. And, he still has a further ways to fall.
I stuck Jarred Cosart here. Obviously, his ERA is ridiculous at 0.96 over 28.0 innings spanning 4 starts. But, he’s walked more than he has struck out and owns an unsightly 5.10 SIERA. The only reason he isn’t in the bottom tier is because his fastball has averaged nearly 95 mph and he has induced a ton of ground balls. So the seeds are there for an intriguing skill set long-term. But, he doesn’t seem ready just yet.
Andy Pettitte
John Danks
Kyle Gibson
Jordan Lyles
Miguel Gonzalez
J.A. Happ
Martin Perez
Ubaldo Jimenez
Kevin Correia
Esmil Rogers
Andre Rienzo
Tommy Hanson
Samuel Deduno
Mark Buehrle
Jason Vargas
Joe Saunders
Wade Davis
Jeremy Guthrie
Bruce Chen
With a 3.17 ERA are acceptable 1.29 WHIP, Samuel Deduno has been getting some recent love. But with a history of terrible control (and a F-Strike% of just 51%) and a poor strikeout rate (backed by a low SwStk%), he’s getting by with smoke and mirrors. The 60%+ ground ball rate is great, but that just makes him Chien-Ming Wangian. Except Wang had a powerful Yankees offense to boost his wins total. Deduno does not have the luxury of a strong offense supporting him.
For some reason, Bruce Chen has also been getting added in leagues. This is the same Bruce Chen then sports a career 4.49 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and is now 36 years old. I hope the 2.03 ERA hasn’t sucked you in. His SIERA sits at 4.13 and that’s with more than half of his innings coming in relief, where skills (and resulting SIERA) are usually better. Don’t touch him…in any league.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Steamer FIP projections have Sanchez ending with a FIP around the projected FIP of Verlander and Shields and far better than Weaver. Why are you holding on to his past seasons even more than a projection system?
First of all, why are you looking at a FIP projection and not an ERA projection? Second, these are rest of season rankings. What a pitcher ends the season projected to finish with is irrelevant. All that matters is his RoS projection.
hahaha why is Rienzo “in great disappointments”?
Because he’s a rookie backed by a bad offense and has a 4.80 SIERA.
Yeah I was talking about RoS projections. Most leagues count strikeouts and WHIP as well as ERA, FIP captures all of those a little better.
If he were healthy where would you rank Kluber?
Somewhere in the Seeing is Believing tier. After seeing the quality of his stuff matching his strong strikeout rate, I’m a believer that he’s just a late bloomer.
Bottom three ranked starters are all from Kansas City. That’s not a good sign for their dark horse playoff challenge.
You forgot about Adam Wainwright just so you know……your about as useful as skip bayless
alright, who had “8th comment” in the reading comprehension failure pool? come get your prize.
“2013 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings”
You throw a fit about there being no Wainwright, but didn’t think twice about not seeing Kershaw? Haha
You have the reading comprehension of a 6 year old. You dope.
You’re an idiot. It was a joke.
Where Ben Revere?
Kuroda should be up at least one maybe 2 more levels
Have to drop one; Who would you choose? Quintana, Colon or Marco Estrada?
Drop Estrada. Bad team (and now without their best player for RoS) and bad ballpark. Colon might see some regression but he’ll always be a decent start at home.
Absolutely shocked to see Kuroda and J. Johnson ranked consecutively. One should be moved up and the other down.
Why isn’t Felix Doubront ranked higher?? He hasnt given up more than 3 runs in a game in ages, he pitches for a good team with a good bullpen and clearly he is trending up.
I like Doubront a lot too, but the reality is, he basically never goes beyond the 6th inning and his WHIP is hurt by his walks. But yeah, for strikeouts, wins and ERA, he’s pretty damn good…
Is IP a stat in your league? Either way, he’s actually pitched into the 7th in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 6 of his last 7.
Where’s *insert irrelevant name*?
the fact Sabathia is in the second tier is laughable. He is not the pitcher he once was, and his past is being reflected in the current rankings. I mean, honestly, Iwakuma is in tier 4, but Sabathia is in Tier 2? What? This needs to be adjusted because this is crazy a pitcher with his stats are ranked in the top 10 starters. I don;t even think he would be a top 40 honestly.
The entire rotation of the Oakland Athletics is “Livin’ on the Edge”…
Yeah what’s up with that? This guy’s a tool. Blinded by the acidic effects on sitting in his own fart stench for prolonged periods of uninterrupted time.
Fastpiece
Firstpiece
F____piece is singlehandedly keeping Fangraphs comment culture alive.
“the continued faith in josh johnson” would make for a good article
How many times does you miss Cole Hamels?!
At this point, you must just not like Kuroda. Peripherals might be the same as previous years, but the results simply don’t lie.
10-7, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .231 BAA, 103 Ks. And its not as if he’s gotten lucky with the schedule he’s had. Out of 23 starts, 15 of them have come against the Dodgers(2), Red Sox(3), Rangers(2), Orioles(4), Blue Jays(3), and Rockies(1). He’s only had 3 starts against teams in the bottom 10 in runs scored as well.
His walk-rate is down from years past, and one thing that seems significant is that he’s throwing a splitter a lot more than in years past. At some point in the season, one cant just continue expecting a guy to fall off a cliff. And you act as if Kuroda has been mediocre at best in previous seasons. Over the last 3 years, his ERA sits at 3.24 and his WHIP at 1.18.
Please, you go ahead and take CC Sabathia, along with his 4.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, rapidly declining strikeout rates, and decreased velocity. Ill take Kuroda and his Cy-Young caliber year.
CC’s Last 15 Starts: 5-7, 5 QS, 5.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 18 HR allowed, 122 hits in 107.0 IP. Keep riding him. Seems to be working. Looking at the rankings again though, you could legitimately just switch CC and Kuroda.
(And there is no way in hell I would take Verlander over Yu or Scherzer at this point. Its not really even close.)
YankeeFan here, its laughable to have Kuroda ranked lower than CC. Even the Yankee brass have conceded CC is no longer the ace of this staff he is probably there 3rd best pitcher. See if over yet if they were to make playoffs(not likely) rotation would be Kuroda, Nova CC and whoever AP can’t get out of 1st inning and Hughes is slated to sign with NL team with large outfield.
Pick one: Salazar or Hellickson ROS?
Your rankings of Kuroda and Parker are hard to understand. Since his horrible April, Parker has pitched like an elite pitcher. Kuroda has to be in tier two. Sabbathia has to placed much lower, IMHO
It’s not delivery, it’s Deduno!
This might be the dumbest post in FanGraphs history. Nice “methodology” you phony sack.
Things I find interesting: Jarrod Parker’s xFIP has been .60 or so above his ERA since last year.
Martin Perez!! How do you rank him below Alexi Ogando?
Better strikeout potential and more history for Ogando.
Why do you only answer the simple/basic/easy questions, but don’t address any of the ones that seem to question your rankings. I think the majority of readers would much rather hear about how CC Sabathia, who is T-22 in WAR amongst AL SPs, can be ranked 7th, while someone like Kuroda(9th in WAR) can be ranked 17th.
I enjoy every article you write, Mike, and think you provide some of the better fantasy content on the site. But by answering questions about why you had Mediocre SP A behind slightly more Mediocre SP B, you are appealing to pretty much one single individual. By answering some of the tougher questions that might seem a tad aggressive or questioning, you are supplementing the article with more detailed content. If you are going to respond at all, I’m fairly certain most readers would prefer the latter.
The explanation is right in the article. I specifically discussed both Sabathia and Kuroda, so no need to repeat myself! Felix Hernandez’s fastball velocity is down 3.8 mph since its peak and yet he has been just as amazing as always. So simply saying Sabathia’s velocity is down and the broadcasters say he’s not the same pitcher isn’t good enough for me. Of course they think he’s not the same pitcher because all they are doing is focusing on the results — the runs he is allowing! I choose to focus on the underlying skills, summed up by his SIERA, which sits a run below his actual ERA.
Sorry if I thought it required more than a one sentence blurb about Sabathia. The only thing you wrote about Kuroda was that he is the same pitcher he was last year. Yet, that shouldn’t be a bad thing considering he was dominant last year too.
And its not just CC’s velocity. There are several of his peripherals that suggest he just isn’t the same pitcher…I also don’t think its fair to compare him to King Felix as they are at completely different points in their careers. Besides, King Felix has only seen his velocity decrease by 0.3 mph from last year, while his K% is up, BB% is down, and GB% is up.
That’s a reach/poor comparison at best. Virtually any pitcher is going to have decreased velocity if you go back 6 years. Clayton Kershaw’s velocity is down 1.5mph from his “peak.” And regardless, there’s a reason why Felix’s ERA sits at 2.39, FIP at 2.56, and WAR at 4.8. Similarly, there’s a reason Sabathia’s sits at 4.73, FIP at 4.20, and WAR at 1.8.
Sabathia’s 2013 Peripherals compared to 2012….
K/9: Down 1.4
BB/9: Up 0.16
FIP: 4.20
ERA-: 115
GB%: Down 3.5%
FB%: Up 3.8%
Fastball Velo: Down 1.5mph
O-Swing%: Down 4.3%
O-Contact%: Up 3.1%
Contact%: Up 2.1%
SwStr%: Down 1.1%
His BABIP of .308 isn’t far enough away from his career averages to think he’s just getting unlucky. He’s giving up an absurd number of HR, which is most likely the result of an increased FB% coupled with diminishing stuff. The fact that guys are swinging at way less pitches out of the zone, yet making far more contact on those pitches is very alarming IMO. That means hitters are seeing the ball much better out of his hand and can read the spin.
Im not going to continue to try and convince you that CC should be about 20 spots lower, as it seems like you aren’t really open to the idea that maybe you were wrong on this one. I think the comments here speak for themselves. No one trusts CC. He’s been absolutely awful for pretty much the last 3-4 months. Its ridiculous to have him ranked 7th amongst all AL SPs. And randomly comparing his velocity drop in the last calendar year to some elite starter’s velocity drop from 6 years ago is weak at best.
The point of bringing up Felix’s velocity is to point out that it’s not a good enough explanation. Just stating Sabathia’s velocity is down and that’s why he’s struggling and not the same pitcher is an incomplete analysis. You didn’t do this, but it’s the typical explanation.
Obviously his peripherals are worse than they have been. But, SIERA accounts for this, and it’s a full run below his ERA. Given his long and consistent career, I am willing to still weight his history highly and expect he will start seeing better results that match his still good skills.
Kuroda’s value has remained the same to me since the preseason. I can understand an argument for dropping Sabathia, but Kuroda is the exact same pitcher as I projected him to be and valued him at, with better luck.