The top four spots in the Rockies’ rotation, barring injury, seem pretty much set for the start of the 2014 season, but most of them carry significant risk. The exception is Jhoulys Chacin; other than a pectoral injury that cost him 3 1/2 months in 2012, he has been an effective, durable pitcher over the bulk of his seven professional seasons.

But then you’ve got Jorge de la Rosa, who has pitched more than 130 innings in just two of seven seasons since he transitioned to a starter full-time in the majors. Brett Anderson hasn’t thrown more than 83.1 frames since 2010. Tyler Chatwood is a decent, if thoroughly unspectacular, back-of-the-rotation starter.

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Let’s not dance around the subject, Jarrod Parker has an outstanding change-up. Since his first full season in 2012, Parker has teased fantasy analysts with a below average strikeout rate and above average swinging strike rate. Generally speaking, we consider swinging strike rate to be a leading indicator on overall strikeout rate. So Parker will get more strikeouts in 2014, right? Right???

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We probably can’t be worse.

That’s the likely slogan for the Houston Astros rotation entering 2014, because the 2013 rotation was a flaming tire-fire. Then finished 27th as a group in innings pitched, averaging fewer than 17 outs a turn, 26th in strikeouts per nine innings, 28th in ERA and tops for free passes issued.

The Twins, Orioles and Blue Jays were the only teams worse in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics (4.42 FIP). It would be difficult for the rotation to get worse, is what we’re saying. But it’ll be a largely new crew, and they’ll try their best!
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So we know that the back of the Angels bullpen should probably perform better this year, but how will the games begin? The organization had a busy offseason, acquiring two young starting pitchers via trade to round out what will amount to a very interesting staff.

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Remember that old fantasy baseball format that required you to choose a starting pitching staff rather than individual players? If that is still being played today, then give me the Mariners rotation. Intriguing arms abound in the Northwest with a nice mix of elite level veterans and exciting young hurlers.

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In terms of evaluating starting pitchers for the fantasy baseball season, owners have patiently waited for Masahiro Tanaka to sign with a major-league team. Ballpark and competition matter when evaluating players, so now that Tanaka inked a seven-year, $155 million deal with the New York Yankees, we can proceed to the more important stage of determining probable performance and probable value.

Of course, the most obvious obstacle hindering most fantasy analysis regarding Tanaka is the switch from the Nippon Professional Baseball league to the major leagues. The right-hander twirled a sparkling 1.27 ERA in his final season in Japan, but it’s unclear how that will translate to the American League. Furthermore, how do we know where to draft him and what kind of peripheral statistics can we expect? He’s bound to get glossed up by the hype machine in the coming months, especially since he will be wearing pinstripes, but fantasy owners realize they must trim away the fat to get at some core truth.

I’m not going to pretend I can project Tanaka’s overall performance in 2014. No matter what, he’ll remain kind of an enigma heading into the season. However, I do feel we can glean some important relational information by comparing him to how owners treated Yu Darvish when he stormed the league a couple seasons ago.

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They’re baaaaaack! What better way to open Pod Projections season than with the pitcher the Yankees just made a very rich man, Masahiro Tanaka. This is the third season I have been publishing my projections and once again, my methods have improved and incorporate more data than ever before. Of course, since my process is completely manual, that just means it takes even longer to project each individual player.

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Before sympathizing with me for being tasked with discussing the Rockies rotation, understand that I actually chose this motley group to analyze. What can I say, I like a challenge. Although we typically have blindly avoided Rockies starting pitchers in the past, their rotation actually included a trio of starters who threw over 100 innings and posted an ERA below 3.50. Somewhat hilariously though, the remaining collection of hurlers that took the mound all posted ERAs of over 5.00. Now that’s more like it!

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It’s no secret that Petco Park is a pitcher’s park. But for the sake of putting a face with a name, or rather some numbers with a narrative, I’ll point out that according to our basic park factors Petco was tied for the second most pitcher-friendly park last year. And prior to last year Petco had the lowest basic park factor in the league for nine straight seasons after opening in 2004.

Last summer, Bradley Woodrum discussed the changes made to Petco prior to the 2013 season and how they are affecting offense in the park. Offense is on the rise to some degree and that’s consistent with Petco not being the most pitcher-friendly park in the league last year for the first time in its existence. But it’s hard to say exactly how much the dimensions are bolstering offensive production. What we can say with some certainty is that even though it may not be the most pitcher-friendly park, it’s still safely pitcher-friendly.

Because of the nature of the park, pitchers for the Padres are always interesting to fantasy owners. So who is in line to potentially get the Petco bump this year? Below is a chart showing the five San Diego starters projected to throw the most innings along with their Steamer projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Based strictly on run prevention, the Giants starting rotation had consistently been one of the best staffs in baseball. Until 2013. Rather than once again rank in the top 10 in ERA, the collective group of starters posted a mark that ranked just 24th. Their disappointing performance could be illustrated by this sexy graph:

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