Today marks the end of the 2014 Pod’s Pick series and we finish off with my favorite position, starting pitcher. This is where we find the most divergent opinions as an extra projected win or two or a slightly higher expected strikeout rate is enough to push a player up a whole bunch of spots in the rankings.

The starting pitcher edition of Pod’s Picks may help you find value or learn who to avoid at their current going rates. The bullish section will only include players from my top 78 (which assumes 6 1/2 starting pitchers active per team with 2 1/2 closers), while the bearish group will only include those whose RotoGraphs consensus is in the top 78.

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After five respectable outings in 2013, Erik Johnson will begin his rookie campaign as a relative unknown in the fantasy world. This season is just his third as a professional and his quick ascension through the minors bodes well. The White Sox are hoping that Johnson can fill a mid-rotation role behind Chris Sale, and he could offer possible value to 12-team mixed league owners too.

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The way I am drafting this year, which isn’t much different than most years, is to wait a long while on pitching and stack my roster with mid rotation types along with some young guys with high upside. There is always debate on whether or not that strategy is appropriate, and this post is certainly not expected to start that debate. But one guy I have had on my mind was Ervin Santana. As someone who has added a sinker and regularly shows great command, Santana is a guy I was looking at pretty aggressively entering my drafts.
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Without Mat– okay, I won’t even say it. Without their ace and one of the best pitchers in the game, the 2014 Mets rotation takes on a decidedly different look, one led by…

The big four

Bartolo Colon

Colon was a pretty fun fantasy option when you could get him for a buck or two, which you almost certainly could since he was lousy in 2009, out of baseball entirely in 2010, and looking like this in 2011. (You’re staring at that picture. You’re wondering if it’s fake. I’m not going to spoil it.) Then he had to go and win 28 games in two years for Oakland, and put up a 2.65 ERA last year, and you’re left with the reality that he’s clearly going to cost more than a buck this year, but he’s still 41 years old and hasn’t had a swinging-strike percentage of even seven percent since 2005. He’s obviously clearly rosterable, but at what price?

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Okay, technically Petco Park is in the 619 area code, however Kanye West never had an album that sounded similar to “619s & Hearbreaks.” With that out of the way, we can now take a look at my thoughts on a long time favorite, Andrew Cashner. Minds smarter than my own have already compiled the consensus starting pitcher rankings, but there was dissenting opinion regarding Cashner. His highest rankings were 35 and his lowest was 64, meaning that the jury was still out on Cashner’s ability to put up strong fantasy numbers as a starter.

There were plenty of reasons to fall in love with Cashner’s ability. He kept the ball on the ground with his 52.1% ground ball rate. Moving from Wrigley Field and the windy city to spacious Petco Park should have (and did) help his home run rate. Last season Cashner managed to post a 3.09 ERA and trimmed more than a walk off of his BB/9 rate. So why am questioning my love for Cashner?
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Need a warm body at the end of your draft to fill out a bench spot? Struggling to see straight after putting down too many Yuenglings? Mock Draft Central tells us there’s no shortage of commoners to be had: Jason Vargas and his lifetime 51-58 record will be there for the taking; Josh Johnson and his patched-up elbow can be had on the cheap; and Trevor Cahill, owner of a 15.6 percent career strikeout rate, stands ready to be selected should you have something better to do than sit patiently and wisely craft the back end of your roster.

There’s no crime in being haphazard, but us FanGraphs folk prefer the whiff of upside to the constraints of guaranteed mediocrity. So it’s in that spirit that I wonder if Wily Peralta, currently being priced at a 324 ADP, is deserving of more love.

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Each spring, a handful of storylines grab fantasy owners’ attention due to the vast difference in potential value on draft day. The stories could revolve around a spring position battle or the potential of a top prospect to steal a roster spot with a big spring camp. Sometimes its a rehabbing player who isn’t certain to be ready for opening day.

Perhaps an under-reported fantasy storyline is unfolding in St. Louis, and it doesn’t involve top prospect Oscar Taveras. The Cardinals suffered a blow to their starting rotation when left-hander Jaime Garcia experienced a setback with his surgically-repaired shoulder. He’s currently seeking a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, according to ESPN.

The story isn’t really that Garcia re-injured his shoulder. Given his unfortunate injury history, the news was not shocking. It’s the repercussions of the injury that are interesting for fantasy owners. Right-handers Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez now find themselves locked in a battle for the fifth starter role. And for the latter, the fireballing Carlos Martinez, such a transition to the starting rotation could significantly increase his fantasy value for the 2014 season.

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Starting pitchers are the best. For whatever reason — perhaps their true talent changes more year to year, or they have less control over their results than hitters, or injury is more pervasive — pitchers are harder to project than hitters. I personally believe it’s because the power of changing your pitching mix can make you a new pitcher.

Look at Dallas Keuchel. He used to have a meh curve, he ditched it for a good slider. How relevant are his past stats now? You move a pitcher from the tougher league to the easier one, and you have to guess at how much that will matter, to some extent. Because the defense behind them will change too. In Doug Fister’s case, it always seemed like he’d get better defense at his new stop. Is that the case? Or consider the case of Jose Fernandez and the lack of major league sample size. You regress him, and he’s still great. Or Masahiro Tanaka, the complete lack of major league stats.

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Is there a more fascinating rotation in fantasy than the one sported by the New York Yankees? All five projected starters carry compelling storylines into 2014, whether they’re attempting to stave off injury or prove themselves as capable big league hurlers as the team looks to return to postseason baseball.

There’s nothing wrong with being 33 years old, but the question for fantasy owners is how quickly CC Sabathia’s advancing years are diminishing his value. There’s plenty to be down about: the lefty last season posted the lowest WAR (2.7), highest batting average against (.267), ERA (4.78) and WHIP (1.37) of his 13-year career. Optimists might look at his 3.76 xFIP and believe he was cheated a bit on the 27 home runs he allowed, and less home runs would improve his strand rate, and a better strand rate would help bring down his ERA. But what’s most alarming to fantasy owners is the drop in strikeouts; his 19.3 percent strikeout rate was his lowest since 2004, his whiff rate dropped nearly two percentage points from 2012 and his average fastball velocity declined for the third straight season.

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The Pod Projection train has left the station and is gaining momentum, as today brings another forecast for your reading pleasure. The young Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha dazzled over nine starts and 64.2 innings in his rookie debut and then impressed on the biggest stage in the playoffs, posting a 2.64 ERA in five starts. Not surprisingly, he is quite the target of many a fantasy player, as he’s currently the 17th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, going 92nd overall. Could he possibly deliver that kind of value to his owners?

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