Are Rockies Starters Really Fantasy Relevant?
Before sympathizing with me for being tasked with discussing the Rockies rotation, understand that I actually chose this motley group to analyze. What can I say, I like a challenge. Although we typically have blindly avoided Rockies starting pitchers in the past, their rotation actually included a trio of starters who threw over 100 innings and posted an ERA below 3.50. Somewhat hilariously though, the remaining collection of hurlers that took the mound all posted ERAs of over 5.00. Now that’s more like it!
This past season, Jhoulys Chacin followed up a disappointing injury-riddled 2012 with a return to prior performance levels. But although those performances levels look respectable on the surface, his underlying skills have typically been soft. His strikeout rate is in free fall as his ability to induce swinging strikes has evaporated. Though, he has compensated by throwing more strikes.
He sports a below league average BABIP over his career, which is surprising given his home park and batted ball profile. And along with unusually low BABIP marks, every year it’s another metric that drives his SIERA outperformance; this year it was an unsustainable 6.2% HR/FB rate. He might now be considered the ace of the Rockies staff, but he’s nearly a lock to be overvalued in fantasy drafts this year.
Behind Chacin is Jorge de la Rosa, who finally posted his first sub-4.00 ERA over a full season. I have no idea what they did to the ball in Coors Field, but de la Rosa was yet another Rockies starter who enjoyed a suppressed HR/FB rate. I have been a fan since 2008, but naturally his ERA finally dives below 4.00 the time his intriguing skills disappear. What happened to the strikeouts Jorge? The problem stemmed from his changeup inducing fewer swings and misses, a pitch that used to be a serious weapon for him. If he gets that back, his strikeout rate should rebound and then he might have a chance to post another sub-4.00 ERA actually supported by his peripherals.
In 2011 and 2012, Juan Nicasio posted some very interesting skills. He threw hard and possessed good control. But his fastball velocity dropped significantly this year, and with it went his strikeout rate. His F-Strike% fell as well, which combined to wreck his season. Unfortunately, his individual pitch SwStk% rates are all mediocre or below average, suggesting he doesn’t even possess one plus pitch. That’s not good. He may not last much longer in the rotation.
Tyler Chatwood is an enigma. He seemingly has good stuff when you watch him pitch, with a fastball that peaks at 97 mph and an assortment of breaking/off-speed offerings. But oddly, batters have no problem making contact. For the first time this year, his slider and curve induced a SwStk% above 10%. That’s nothing special, but it’s progress. Part of the problem lies in the fact that he throws his fastball over 70% of the time. That makes sense given that he generates nearly 60% ground balls on the pitch. So it appears that it’s another decision between the strikeout or the ground ball. In real baseball, the ground ball version ain’t so bad. But in fantasy, you simply have to pass.
Chatwood was also a member of the strange low HR/FB rate club and vastly outperformed his SIERA. It’s also worth mentioning that his season ended with elbow stiffness, so add another check mark into the risks column.
Finally, we get to the very man who convinced me it was worth writing about the Rockies rotation. Brett Anderson’s acquisition by Colorado may finally be what I need to resign as a member of his fan club and stop calling him a Pod’s Pick. He was so exciting because he truly possessed that perfect combination of ground balls, strong control and good enough strikeout ability. Too bad he’s made of glass (sorry glass, I don’t mean to insult you, I’m sure you have other redeeming qualities). It’s cool that Anderson now gets to ply his trade in the National League, but that won’t fix his health issues. At the moment, you have to assume that he’ll be a part of the rotation for as long as he stays off the DL. In NL-Only leagues, you should errr, ummmm, I guess, maybe take a shot. For $1.
If Jordan Lyles was ever on your sleeper list, you may now cross him off of it. Sure, he’s posted ERAs north of 5.00 for three straight seasons, but his skills weren’t that terrible and offered some glimmers of hope. Unfortunately, there’s little left to be optimistic about here. Anderson and Lyles will supposedly battle it out for the final spot in the rotation, but I cannot imagine Anderson not winning it if he’s healthy.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Butler?
You rang, sir?
I buttle, sir.
There’s a crowd out there that thinks the rockies have discovered some magical secret to getting good results by pitching poorly, amd actually expects it to continue that way. I thought we’d come further than that but there you go
Why did you spend time writing this? Why did I spend time reading this> This was nothing. Next time, just write: No Colorado starter worth drafting, and save us all time.
Lyles and Nicasio, not Anderson, will fight for the five spot. If BA is healthy he’ll be in the rotation. He’s too talented and well paid not to be.
Yeah I’d think that would be the case as well.
A broken foot doesn’t strike me as an injury that will affect him in upcoming seasons. He might have a greater risk of injury due to genetics, but I doubt his injury risk will be any greater this year than it was last year.
I’m currently questioning whether to keep him in a 16 team mixed dynasty league with 20 keepers/year and 26 man rosters. It’s between him and Huston Street.
Huston Street put up seriously scary red flags all over the map last year, including the highest strand rate of the modern era by pitchers with basically any IP
Nothing to do with Brett Anderson but keep Brett Anderson.
It’s a huge risk to start anyone, even your best ace, when they are scheduled to pitch in Coors field. It’d be interesting to see what percentage of the worst starting pitching lines of the season happen in Coors.
It’s not the cheap homers that kill pitchers there, it’s all the bloops that fall in front of or between their outfielders due to it’s cavernous dimensions. To me, they should just move the fences in to normal depths and raise them to abnormal heights (15′-20′). I think it’s the best way to give their pitchers a fighting chance.
You’re right that its not the HR’s that kill pitchers at Coors. But there is no solution to the outfield bloops. Even with a ‘normal’ sized outfield, the ball is still going to come off the bat faster than anywhere and stay flying faster than anywhere. That’s why it goes further there than anywhere. And the result also is that the ball gets to where its going faster.
The best thing for the Rockies is to platoon split part of their own SP’s (home and road) so they can acquire cheaper SP’s for home (the pitch-to-contact GB-inducing bottom of rotation types) and still be attractive to better SP’s (who will not have to pitch as much at Coors and who can greatly help the Rockies on the road).
And to STOP accepting WAR and other crappy stats to value OF’s. Fowler was a very very solid OF for the Rockies. The reason other teams didn’t value him much is because WAR is worse-than-useless in measuring OF defense at Coors. For the reasons in your post and above. But clearly the Rockies accepted ‘the market’s’ evaluation of him and traded him for nothing rather than keeping a solid CF and great leadoff hitter.
worth keeping Chacin at $1 in NL-only Roto?
I’d try your hardest to trade him for the best you can get.
no mention of the party deck?
for a team that gets a bad rap for their pitchers, it says something that two pitching prospects are consistently ranked in the top 50 prospects this year (butler & gray).
I only start ace ace level pitcher in Coors, like Cliff Lee / Felix Hernandez level or better. If you take a Rockies starter, you’re only probably going to want to start him in away games or against really, really weak-hitting teams.
Let me put it this way, if Kershaw pitched for the Rockies he’d be a 5th round pick or worse. It’s not the home runs or bloops alone that kill the pitchers. It’s those, plus breaking pitches are worse, so harder contact is made overall and strikeouts drop.
Kershaw gave up 11 dongs last year. Of those jacked dongs, nine of them were of the solo variety. I’d be taking him before the fifth if I took pitchers before the fifth. Which I don’t.
Long Duck Dong…
jacked dongs you say?
Pods, good insight as usual. Thanks for showing your work, some of us like to see the logic that goes into the conclusion. Brett Anderson gets me every year too.