We have been told ad nauseam that spring training stats mean nothing. For the most part, this is true. As soon as you begin reading an article quoting a pitcher’s spring ERA or a hitter’s batting average, you could safely skip any analysis the author provides. But two years ago, with the help of Matt Swartz, I discovered that a pitcher’s strikeout percentage actually does carry some significance with regards to his regular season performance. Knowing this, we could look to the spring stats to identify which starters are punching out batters at a significantly higher rate than they have in the past. These make for an interesting group of breakout candidates.

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There’s an intriguing battle taking place on the Nationals between two rather similar pitchers. Both Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark debuted in Washington last year and impressed. Though Roark did post a sparkling ERA, neither one of them is getting a whole lot of preseason fanfare, perhaps because their strikeout rates don’t wow us. But the winner of this battle is likely to be a strong source of profit in NL-Only leagues, while offering the potential for mixed league value.

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The Mets tweeted something that at first seems really boring. But it *might* mean something very exciting for a young hurler in the organization. One that isn’t quite yet a national name.

We agreed to pay Daisuke Matsuzaka $100,000 in order to retain his rights under his existing Minor League Uniform Player’s Contract.

— New York Mets (@Mets) March 25, 2014

At first glance, it’s a yawner. Except that Daisuke Matsuzaka is in a competition right now for the fifth starter spot in New York. In competition with Jenrry Mejia, who has so-so numbers in the minor leagues, can’t stay healthy and hasn’t been a top prospect for a while. That said, if Mejia wins the job with a good start this weekend in Montreal — that’s the final hurdle now that it’s easier for the Mets to retain Dice-K — he’s absolutely mixed-league relevant and a great final pitcher pickup.

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He throws all four pitches, has solid velocity, a big solid frame, will begin the season in the White Sox rotation, and is a top 100 prospect. With all of that said, will Erik Johnson be worth a flier in fantasy formats this season?
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In 1996, Larry Labadini spent $251 of his $260 auction budget on hitting in the early years of LABR. That meant that his pitching staff was completely filled by $1 hurlers. Labadini finished fourth that year, but his strategy has forever been known as the Labadini Plan. I have been dying to try this in an auction, but never actually went through with it. It’s obviously high risk and there are always too many pitchers I want to own that cost more than a buck. One day though, it must happen.

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Do I love Ubaldo Jimenez as a pitcher? No. He is wild, he is inconsistent, and very difficult to predict on a year-by-year and start-by-start basis. However, he is looking very undervalued of late and should be a guy most people are targeting late in drafts.
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Perhaps it’s not who will win the position battle for the last starting pitcher slot for the Cleveland Indians that matters. Rather, from a fantasy baseball perspective — who do you want to start on day five for the Cleveland Indians? Because it’s most certainly not Aaron Harang, who seems to be the poster boy for noodle-at-the-ceiling throwing when it comes to a requisite starting pitcher to nom nom nom innings. The battle, it seems, is down to Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Mr. Harang. Yes, yes, I know those of you clutching to your pretty shiny Trevor Bauer cry foul, but the tea leaves are suggesting a need for “refining” in beautiful Columbus.

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We’re in the midst of the preseason in which the vast majority of fantasy leagues will be hosting their fantasy drafts, and fantasy owners everywhere are looking for tips and tricks to give them a strategic edge over the competition. Luckily, not everyone in your league is smart enough to read RotoGraphs on a regular basis. While I’m not certain it’s the equivalent of fantasy baseball PEDs, it seems damn close.

Since we’ve now established the apparent correlation between RotoGraphs and fantasy steroids, here are a few thoughts to stuff in your back pocket on a pair of pitchers, one concerning a guy who should be drafted in every league and one who will be lucky to have a 5% ownership rate on Opening Day:

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One of the most pleasant surprises of the spring, and a very welcome sight for the Yankees, is the impressive performance of Michael Pineda. Acquired before the 2012 season in exchange for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi in a trade that has (so far) been incredibly disappointing for both teams, Pineda has yet to pitch an inning for the Yankees after tearing his shoulder labrum in spring training shortly after being traded.

Now, a full two-and-a-half years since he last pitched a major-league inning, the 25-year-old is opening plenty of eyes with his stellar spring performance. In his nine innings, he has allowed zero runs on eight hits, with a 14/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that jumps off the page. It’s obviously a tiny sample, but his production so far has been very encouraging for a guy who hasn’t taken the mound in a major-league game since 2011.

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There’s a commonly accepted rule in fantasy baseball circles – “don’t read too much into spring training stats.” I sure do love to break that rule. Every year, something special happens in spring training and with the right approach you can identify and build it into your fantasy draft plan. This year, Drew Hutchison looks like one of those special gems.

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