Entering spring training, Jake Odorizzi did not have a starting rotation spot in hand. But then an elbow injury to Jeremy Hellickson opened up a spot and Odorizzi won out over Erik Bedard and Cesar Ramos. A popular sleeper choice in a presumed good situation in Tampa Bay, Odorizzi hasn’t exactly impressed, having posted a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 14 starts. Surely the former top prospect was expected to perform better.
It’s a fishy edition of the deep league waiver wire and the first time I’m heading back to the National League after my last three posts recommended two American Leaguers. The Marlins have been aggressive about promoting prospects, which is great for fantasy leaguers in that they keep on providing us with a new shiny toy to analyze.
Hard to believe we’re already in the second half of June, but as the bats heat up — and the injuries pile up — finding quality arms off the scrap heap can be a challenge. Fortunately, we have two NL-only candidates this week who offer intriguing upside and offer help for those looking to plug rotation holes.
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Starting pitching is so tough to evaluate. First, you get massive amounts of information every five days, but each of those bursts of information is tied to a single park or team and is so context dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you’re the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you’re outta luck.
That last part is really the reason for the delay on these rankings. Tony Cingrani was a starting pitcher yesterday and we were about to pub the rankings — and then news came out that Mat Latos would take his slot this week. Now Cingrani is suddenly among the prospects — who are impossible to project given their uncertain role — and waiting for Alfredo Simon to pumpkin or Latos to hurt again. That’s not great for his ranking.
Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark continues to prove the doubters wrong. In fairness, for a long time, it didn’t seem like Roark would turn into much. After toiling in the minor-leagues, and putting up average numbers, something changed in 2013. Roark’s numbers took a turn for the better, earning him a call-up to the majors at age-26. While his performance was impressive, none of it seemed sustainable. His peripherals were good, but his stuff didn’t seem overwhelming, and he only tossed 53 2/3 innings, most out of the pen. Even the Nationals seemed unsure about Roark, putting him in a competition for the fifth starter spot in spring training. Doug Fister’s injury may have given Roark a job by default to begin the season, but he’s done more than enough to prove he belongs in the majors.
Judging from my twitter comments, it looks like there’s a window of opportunity for those of you that want to buy Kevin Gausman, for this year or for your keeper teams. But we know that Gausman has flaws. The question is: how likely is he to correct those flaws and become the fantasy superstar that his velocity and minor league record seems to suggest is possible?
Author’s note: I was busy last night and this morning, so this piece was written yesterday afternoon, before May’s start at Charlotte. (Update: May extended his scoreless streak to 30 innings last night, before surrendering three runs in the fifth inning. His final line was 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K)
As of this writing, four weeks have passed since Trevor May last allowed an earned run. The 24-year-old was terrific in May (pun not intended, but entirely unavoidable), posting a 1.47 earned run average in 36.2 innings, including a 26-inning stretch to close the month in which he surrendered just one unearned run.
Through ten starts, May’s ERA sits at a tidy 2.62, with a 3.04 FIP. He’s striking out just under a batter an inning, and his walk rate has dropped for the second consecutive year, which is a very good sign considering that he’s done so while also getting his first taste of Triple-A:
It’s that time again, updated American League starting pitcher tiers! We’re now far enough into the season where I have to finally take skills changes into serious consideration. Velocity changes are real, as are changes in repertoire and various advanced metrics such as the strike type percentages. While I have sometimes in the past concerned myself with rankings within tiers, I am not doing so anymore. They did begin in descending order of my projected dollar value, but it’s simply not all that helpful to determine whether Tanaka is above or below King Felix at this point. So, consider any pitcher within a tier to be worth within a several buck range of each other.
Today’s edition features another injury beneficiary and a man we had all but forgotten about attempting to make a comeback.
The conventional wisdom says that your starting pitcher needs three pitches. Fastball, breaking ball, change-up is best, but three pitches by hook or crook. If they don’t, they’ll have platoon splits and a tough time getting through the lineup. That’s largely true, of course, but there are always exceptions.
Let’s see what we can learn from the exceptions.